HD DVD/BD sales numbers

dkny75 · 09-25-2006, 03:49 PM

Please do not shoot the messenger. Everyone can argue about the validity of these numbers but I just wanted to pass along the information.

Post over at AVS:

QUOTE
Videoscan numbers are in for August finally...

HD-DVD software outsold BD 11 to 1.

11 to 1.

It was 8 to 1 in July.

11 to 1.

That is without a big name title. Batman Begins is estimated to be the first big title for HD-DVD. The title broke into the top 20 on Amazon.com for a limited time. Pre-Orders of the title from Amazon alone are said to be over 20,000 orders. That will make it the top selling HD-DVD title on its first day of release.

WB believes it will sell 50,000 copies in the first week. That means that 90% of everyone who has a HD-DVD player will be out buying it. It also means it will have sold twice as many copies as the previous top seller: Serenity.

Corpse Bride, Charlie & the Chocolate Factory, and T3 are estimated to sell around 15,000 copies in their first month. By the end of October, HD-DVD will have 5 titles that will have outsold every BD sold combined.

Compare that to Click which is estimated to sell around 3,500 copies in its first month and is also estimated to be BD's top selling title.

It's illegal for me to reprint on the internet Videscan numbers (its a paid subscription). It's also illegal for me to reprint the article about estimated sales for both.

It isn't illegal to point out that on Amazon.com the top 10 HD-DVD titles average out to be ranked 584th in movie sales. BD's top 10 average out to 5,662. HD-DVD has 5 titles in the top 150, BD's best day to my knowledge was the top 3,600 for 1 title. They have 5 titles in the top 5,300 currently.

Five best titles for HD-DVD: top 150, BD: top 5,300.

Software sales are completely blowing away BD. Software attachment numbers are crazy high for HD-DVD. September and October numbers are going to be much WORSE for BD. It is 11 to 1 right now, but September numbers could be as high as 15 to 1, and Octobers looks to be devestatingly absurd likely 20 to 1.

So the person in this thread thinking sales are 5 to 1 in favor of HD-DVD is clearly wrong. HD-DVD is crushing BD right now. This is without advertising. The big campaign of $150M starts in late October.

Consider by October HD-DVD player sales are estimated to be at 65,000 while BD sales are estimated to be at 10,000. That is sold not shipped. It is a number from Toshiba, so it could be off. I don't think it is.

Sony is banking that PS3 sales will push software sales of BD up in December over HD-DVD and show that Studios like Disney, Fox, and Lionsgate picked the right brand.

Lionsgate however is rumored to be about to make an announcement that they will have HD-DVD titles available. It's just too hard for them to pass up the money they could be making in HD-DVD.

If Sony doesn't win December (and I'm now thinking they have little to no chance) then Disney is very likely to spurn Sony and go with both formats.

LG is going to announce a Dual-Format (universal) player at CES. Their agreement with Sony won't allow them to release a HD-DVD only player.

MarekM · 09-25-2006, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkny75

If Sony doesn't win December (and I'm now thinking they have little to no chance) then Disney is very likely to spurn Sony and go with both formats.

little to no chance based on WHAT DATA ???????

Marek

dkny75 · 09-25-2006, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarekM

little to no chance based on WHAT DATA ???????

Marek

That is the poster's opinion. I'm assuming he's basing it the videoscan data he has in front of him.

MarekM · 09-25-2006, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkny75

That is the poster's opinion. I'm assuming he's basing it the videoscan data he has in front of him.

I am not shooting messanger

just very simple math....... of course it will be not accurate

he said 10.000 BD players, maybe till the end of the year it can at least tripple or quadruple.... maybe more......

so lets say 50.000 BD (samsung, panasonig, sony, pioneer, sharp, philips) maybe I am too positive....
and if the press releases turn out to be true 400.000+1.500.000 PS3 together at the end of the year...

so let's do math about software...

people who bought BD player will for sure buy at least 15 movies this year, so you have 750.000 copies sold, plus 20% of 1.9mil PS3 players will buy 4 movies... you have 1.520.000 copies sold, so together there you have 2.270.000 copies sold.....

on the other hand HD-DVD from info 65.000 players, so maybe 80.000 at the end of the year... let have same 15 movies each one.. - 1.200.000 copies sold

and that's jut begining........
don't shoot me

I am maybe conservative or very positive, I am not sure

I just took some numbers

Marek

BrettGallman · 09-25-2006, 04:21 PM

HD-DVD is off to a fast start, that's for sure. But there's still a long way to go, for sure.

**HTF Ads**

Ryan_Papineau · 09-25-2006, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarekM

I am not shooting messanger

just very simple math....... of course it will be not accurate

he said 10.000 BD players, maybe till the end of the year it can at least tripple or quadruple.... maybe more......

so lets say 50.000 BD (samsung, panasonig, sony, pioneer, sharp, philips) maybe I am too positive....
and if the press releases turn out to be true 400.000+1.500.000 PS3 together at the end of the year...

so let's do math about software...

people who bought BD player will for sure buy at least 15 movies this year, so you have 750.000 copies sold, plus 20% of 1.9mil PS3 players will buy 4 movies... you have 1.520.000 copies sold, so together there you have 2.270.000 copies sold.....

on the other hand HD-DVD from info 65.000 players, so maybe 80.000 at the end of the year... let have same 15 movies each one.. - 1.200.000 copies sold

and that's jut begining........
don't shoot me

I am maybe conservative or very positive, I am not sure

I just took some numbers

Marek

Sorry, but this has got to be some of the most "imaginary" math I've ever seen with just wild numbers thrown about everywhere. The original poster although clearly pro HD-DVD at least was using hard numbers not just potential numbers.

You are assuming that the number of BD players (non-PS3) is going to jump by 40,000 and then you multiply that by 15 for the movies?!? That seems borderline lunacy in terms of being positive. I don't think I bought that many DVDs in my first year of ownership let alone in what effectively would be about 3 months and yet you think that will be the average for all BD owners.

MarekM · 09-25-2006, 05:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryan_Papineau

Sorry, but this has got to be some of the most "imaginary" math I've ever seen with just wild numbers thrown about everywhere. The original poster although clearly pro HD-DVD at least was using hard numbers not just potential numbers.

You are assuming that the number of BD players (non-PS3) is going to jump by 40,000 and then you multiply that by 15 for the movies?!? That seems borderline lunacy in terms of being positive. I don't think I bought that many DVDs in my first year of ownership let alone in what effectively would be about 3 months and yet you think that will be the average for all BD owners.

- first I used same 15movies also for HD-DVD as you can see..... so, well I bought 80 dvd's in first year, and I was holding myself back...

- I clearly stated that those are only potentional numbers for BD as wel as for HD-DVD

- is it hard to imagene if samsung sold 10.000 that each other BD player can do same ? that people are waiting also for other brands ?

- there are not so imaginery as you think..... I don't pick thouse numbers out of the black wall.......

- well if somebody is going to HD-DVD or BD, you SERIOUSLY THINK he will buy just 4 movies ? or what ?

Marek

P.S. only numbers which are potentional are numbers HD-DVD and BD at the and of the year, and movies sold per one player...

Darren Gross · 09-25-2006, 07:13 PM

The difficulty as I see it is Blu-Ray is pounding out the new titles very quickly and the consumer displays in a place like Best Buy showcase far more varied and interesting titles than is currently on DVD.

What are the numbers of HD DVD releases vs Blu-Ray at this point?

ppltd · 09-25-2006, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarekM

I am not shooting messanger

just very simple math....... of course it will be not accurate

he said 10.000 BD players, maybe till the end of the year it can at least tripple or quadruple.... maybe more......

so lets say 50.000 BD (samsung, panasonig, sony, pioneer, sharp, philips) maybe I am too positive....
and if the press releases turn out to be true 400.000+1.500.000 PS3 together at the end of the year...

so let's do math about software...

people who bought BD player will for sure buy at least 15 movies this year, so you have 750.000 copies sold, plus 20% of 1.9mil PS3 players will buy 4 movies... you have 1.520.000 copies sold, so together there you have 2.270.000 copies sold.....

on the other hand HD-DVD from info 65.000 players, so maybe 80.000 at the end of the year... let have same 15 movies each one.. - 1.200.000 copies sold

and that's jut begining........
don't shoot me

I am maybe conservative or very positive, I am not sure

I just took some numbers

Marek

Numbers will mean little once they get above 100,000 players, for either camp, into consumers hands. At that point it becomes painful not to support both parties. To be perfectly honest, the studios could give a $^*#% about the format when it comes to making more money off of the consumers. Disney or Fox lose nothing by supporting HD-DVD when it has an install base large enough to make profit off of. This goes ditto for Universal.

The only wild card here is Sony Studios. But since they are their on independent company from the hardware side, and have MGM to contend with, I think they will move over to both formats.

If the numbers are any where near facts in the post, and I question them myself, this move could happen allot sooner then I would have guessed.

Bottom line is, IMHO, if both formats sell well over the holidays, the studios will not alienate the consumers by playing in this war. Right now it doesn't matter as it is not the general consumer that is buying the current players. This will most likely change over the Christmas season.

Thomas Eisenmann
Thomas Eisenmann

ppltd · 09-25-2006, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darren Gross

The difficulty as I see it is Blu-Ray is pounding out the new titles very quickly and the consumer displays in a place like Best Buy showcase far more varied and interesting titles than is currently on DVD.

What are the numbers of HD DVD releases vs Blu-Ray at this point?

Just checked DVDEMPIRE.COM

HD-DVD 64 released 48 announced
BR 42 released 53 announced

I am not sure if this includes all of the most current release notes from BR and HD camps.

This may not be a complete list, but it was the best I could do on short notice.

Thomas Eisenmann