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The XBox has absolutely zero price advantage as a high-def disc player if you're wading into the pool for the first time.
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You're right, IF you're wading into the console
and HD pool for the first time. But for the 6 million people who already have a 360, that's a sunk cost. So for those people, it really is a choice between $199 for HD-DVD or $499 for Blu-ray (if you can even find a PS3).
I've got a 360, but I'm still waiting this war out. I don't care who wins as long as SOMEBODY wins and soon.