JediFonger

When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htf/...76#post2964476
^as we discussed big title releases on HD, i think it is related to how many players there are on the market. the more players, the more likely big titles will be released.

when do you think HD (either format or both) will reach enough consumers for studio to take the plunge on big titles being released?

imho, i think it will be 2010 or 2011. DVD came out in '97/'98, correct? took about 3 years before mass adoption of the format around year 2000. HD will take much longer because of existing SD-DVD, which is competing against HD media.

to the edge of eternity and depth of infinity, stupidity knows no bound.

Garrett Lundy

Re: When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

Christmas '08 earliest.

Xmas 2006: Not enough HDMI 1.3 chips for PS3, let alone everyone else
Xmas 2007: New HD decoding on flagship AVRS,HDMI 1.3 finally available to everyone
Xmas 2008: HDMI 1.3 switching & HD decoding now available on less expensive AVRs. 1080p HDTVS now the norm in showrooms, "handshake" amongst components ironed-out (hopefully).

"Did you know that more people are murdered at 92 degrees Fahrenheit than any other temperature? I read an article once. Lower temperatures, people are easy-going, over 92 and it's too hot to move, but just 92, people get irritable."

TravisR

Re: When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

Like Garrett, I'd say the very earliest is 2008 and probably more like 2010. I don't know if that will really effect most big titles from being released though.

Austan

Re: When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

There's a difference between "Big Movie Titles", "Cult Classics", and "New Releases".

"Big Movie Titles" are being released now and will continue to be released. These movies include The Last Samurai, Apollo 13, Bourne Supremacy, Terminator, UnderWorld, etc...

"Cult Classics" are a unique class and are not subject to our demands but to how much money they can make. Star Wars has been released so many times in so many formats and they sell out every time. LOTR has the original, extended and now another box set. Disney is also a master of the cult classic animation movies. Once they run out of "versions" of these movies on SD DVD then they will make a standard HD Version, after that sells out comes the Extended or Enhanced Version.. then the signature Box Set.. you get the picture...

"New Releases" wont happen for quite some time. New releases fill up all the shelf space in stores, go on sale for a week and they need to be cleared up before next Tuesdays new release. This wont happen until after 2010.

MarekM

Re: When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

Austan, maybe some studios will follow BVHE with their releases..

http://video.movies.go.com/bluray/
from faq on the page :
question: When will BVHE start releasing Blue-ray titles the same day as regular DVDtitles

answare: BVHE plans to have same-day releases od DVD and Blu-ray titles starting in December 2006

Marek

dkny75

Re: When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

Both formats are starting to announce day and dates with the regular dvd version.

Mission Impossible III (HD DVD/Blu-ray)
Monster House (Blu-ray)
Lake House (HD DVD)
Break Up (HD DVD)

I know there are a lot more but that's what I remember of the top of my head.

I think studios on both sides are waiting to see how the PS3 sales and availability go, especially on the Blu-ray side.

JediFonger

Re: When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

austan, that's why i mentioned big title. cult classics and new releases alone will not get people to buy into the new format. big title releases will.

now if they can achieve all that then it would rock. an example is the matrix, it was a cult hit, a new release (at that time) AND it was a big title.

to the edge of eternity and depth of infinity, stupidity knows no bound.

Austan

Re: When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

YiFeng, the example you used in the title (LOTR/SW) are 2 that I define as "Cult Classic". They can release multiple editions and we will buy them up like crazy even though we own the previous versions. SW was not released on DVD until 2004 even though DVD had taken the market by 2000. LOTR was made during the era of DVD so it was released then followed up by the Extended Edition and now I think there's another box set out too.

Maybe I should add another category to my list.
"Must Own Collection" are titles that Studios want to maximize the amount they can sell. Matrix, Spiderman, PotC, Harry Potter will be highly sought after titles. You want to produce those in the millions because you have spend million$ to re-market them. I dont see these being released until after 2010.

I also need to revise my "New Release" prediction to be seen mid 2007. (These exclude the new release that are seen as "Must Own Collection")

JediFonger

Re: When will HD players reach critical mass so big titles like LOTR/SW can be released?

LOTR/SW are definitely not cult classics. they are big title movies that non-cult fans would know about... even the grandma/pa's of the world. heck, i bet even in the far reaches of 3rd world countries and middle eastern countries forbidden to watch Western media would know about these big title hits. they are anything but cult hit. now a film like... fight club for example is a still a cult hit, it remains under the radar for mainstream pop culture. when it is mentioned, it is always with a wink like the film itself "is this a test, mr. durden." style.

LOTR/SW are bigger than Matrix, Spider, POTC.

to the edge of eternity and depth of infinity, stupidity knows no bound.