Who is going to win the Format War and why?

Austan · 05-26-2006, 11:16 AM

Let’s have a logical non-emotional discussion about the HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray Format War. I do not like to have debates based solely on “opinions” because you can not prove "opinions" right or wrong. But if you backup your beliefs with “facts” or “reasoning” then it’s fair because we can argue your "facts/reasoning" and prove them valid/invalid. Also let's keep this thread as a debate on which format is going to win and why, instead of a technical debate on which format is better. Try to list your "facts" then give us your reasoning/opinion... It makes it easier to follow... Keep in mind that facts can change (ie: sales figures or dates)...

Possible Facts: Please feel free to debate…

Blu-Ray has all the studios support
HD-DVD has most studios support except the few affiliated with Sony Pictures
Blu-Ray player included in PS3 at $599 ($499 has no HDMI)
HD-DVD has a Toshiba HD-A1 player at $499
Blu-Ray PS3 release Nov 17
HD-DVD already available
May 17, 2006 http://gear.ign.com/articles/709/709082p1.html
“The most recent sales figures show that Toshiba has only sold a worldwide total of 7,500 HD-A1 units (1,500 in Japan, 6,000 in the US)... 2 million PS3's Sony will ship on November 17, the additional 2 million that will ship by the end of the calendar year…”

Shawn Perron · 05-26-2006, 11:17 AM

We don't have enough threads already covering this? It's not like we won't all just use the same facts and opinions covered in atleast 10 other threads that already exist.

Austan · 05-26-2006, 11:22 AM

I've read all the other post and each one goes on a tangent... they end up being an emotional flaming war based on opinions... or they end up being a technical ramble...

Austan · 05-26-2006, 11:32 AM

Here are my main points:
1) The better technology does not necessary translate into better products
ie. Ipod not the best mp3 player but it’s the market leader
2) First out does not necessary translate into first victory
ie. Apple Newton was years ahead of Palm which was ahead of Pocket PC
3) Cheaper price does not always increase sales
ie. Divx was like 1/3 the price of DVD
4) Media sales will sway the studios to drop one format
ie. It cost money to produce 2 versions
5) The consumer will decide what media format they want to buy
ie. Self explanatory
6) “Fanboys” will be “Fanboys”
ie. Can’t deny someone that wants one to not buy it
7) Consumers weary of Format War and most will hold off
ie. Evident by low sales volume
8) BUZZ words reign supreme in the Consumer Mass Market
ie. Its all about marketing

Jack Briggs · 05-26-2006, 11:38 AM

Austan, I am inclined to agree with Shawn -- i.e., already enough threads debating which format is better and which will win. But I'll keep this one open for the moment.

**HTF Ads**

Austan · 05-26-2006, 11:42 AM

im trying not to start a thread on which one is better.. just which one is going to win and why...

Paul McElligott · 05-26-2006, 12:35 PM

Honestly, I don't think that techological superiority matters. I think either format can deliver sufficiently eye-popping content.

Three possibilities, then.

Blu Ray wins due to greater studio support, specifically Disney. Ultimately, the inability to buy Toy Story or The Lion King on a given format will doom that format if it is available on the competing format.
The two formats continue to split the marketplace which, given that relatively small size of the HD market, will lead to:
Both formats ultimately fail because they are trying to divide up a small slice of the HT pie and SD-DVD is good enough for the mass market.

I don't think HD DVD can win in the long run unless they can get Fox and Disney to support the format, putting the studio support on an even footing.

FrancisP · 05-26-2006, 01:26 PM

The number one question is whether people are willing to buy hi-def versions of movies they already own. If the answer is no then neither one will win.
Look at what is going on in the SD market. Dvd sales are down and the number of re-releases are up. That would certainly suggest that people are not willing to pony up to buy multiple copies of movies.

The average person will determine if SD or hi-def are the standards. The average person is not looking for the best possible picture. They are looking for a good picture that SD can already deliver. Bottom line is that I see hi-def being nothing more than a niche market.

Austan · 05-26-2006, 02:37 PM

Well, I have the THX release of StarWars IV-V1 on VHS and the DVD versions. I also have the regular release of the LOTR trilogy as well as the Extended release... I replace my cars even though they are still in good condition. I also plan to move a perfectly good working HDTV set into another room to make room for a new set. Also have a collection of good working 1.1mp, 3.1mp, 4.1mp Digital cameras. Geeks will be geeks and we have the need to upgrade

...

At some point in time, the HD media "niche" market will become mainstream... The number of HDTV sets increases every year because cost has come down... The question is in 4-5 years, which media format will be available for purchase when HD players cost $150...

When HD players are that cheap, there will be a huge swing in media sales. It took about 10 years for CD sales to out pace cassettes and I believe it was 5 for DVD to outpace VHS.

As of this week with Canon announced that it has stopped the production of 35mm cameras... Digital has killed Film and eventually HD will kill SD.

Joseph Bolus · 05-26-2006, 03:07 PM

Right now, in May 2006, I don't think we have enough information to predict a winner in either format.

HD-DVD has been selling players and discs for two months. Blu-ray has yet to even hit the market yet.

HD-DVD has a (tiny) head start; Blu-ray has more long-term potential.

I think that Blu-ray will ultimately become more popular than HD-DVD due to its larger software library. You implied above that all the studios except those explicitly owned by Sony (Columbia and MGM) would also be releasing discs to HD-DVD. At this moment in time we don't know that. Both Fox and Disney have indicated that they will definitely be releasing Blu-ray discs; neither has stated that they will also be releasing HD-DVD titles. On the HD-DVD side, only Universal has stated that they will not be releasing discs to Blu-ray.

My best guess right now is that neither format "wins". Both will co-exist in the marketplace indefinitely, but DVD will remain the media of choice for the mainstream public. I predict that around the middle of 2008 combo players will be offered by all the major hardware manufactures that will play HD-DVD, Blu-ray, and DVD; and that device will become the standardized player of choice for the rest of the decade.

After that, it's just possible that VOD will be the mainstream choice for viewing movies at home!

Richard Kim · 05-26-2006, 04:25 PM

Blu-Ray on the PS3 is not an advantage, considering the negative reaction from the public and gamers to the expensive $599 pricetag.