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The Spurs and Kings are too hungry, and the Lakers are vulnerable.
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The Lakers were infinitely more vulnerable last year. Shaq was playing with his injured foot throughout the season and obviously struggling. Shaq didn't play like himself until the final 2 games of the Kings series and during the NBA Finals. Also, during the Kings matchup, Kobe was hampered by food poisoning for half the series.
This season reminds me the way the Lakers finished the 2000-2001 series. They didn't have an impressive regular season that year, but at the end of the year, they went on a nice run and continued it with their 15-1 postseason. As long as Kobe and Shaq are in good health, I'd always bet on the Lakers.
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Getting swept in the regular season goes a long way towards erasing the mental edge they held over the Spurs the last two seasons.
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For one, the Lakers forget the regular season the moment the playoffs start. I believe the Spurs beat the Lakers 3-1 in the 2000-2001 season during the regular season and it didn't seem to affect the Lakers then. Also, two of the games were without Shaq and they were still close. And finally, I think the Lakers 8-1 record in the playoffs vs. the Spurs in the previous two years sticks in their mind more than any Spurs success in the Lakers minds.