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Re: *** Official 2008 Oscars Nominations List and Forum Discussion Thread
What Michael Clayton has going for it really has no negatives and is a perfectly solid film. That plus its cast, it's script and overall classyness (and classicness) of the production. It's very elegant and really appeals to the academy's demographic.
No Country's biggest positive is that it's winning every award, every precursor, has widespread support and a general industry feeling that the Coen's are due. Plus an iconic villain. The biggest negative is that some people really dislike the post modern ending.
Juno has a lot of industry support but will probably only win screenplay, the academy is always nervous to really come out in support of a comedy because comedies so rarely win. Other than the back to back comedy wins of Shakespeare in Love and American Beauty you have to go back Terms of Endearment to find another winner, and all three of these films were viewed as primarily dramas on the first go round
There Will Be Blood has a lot of goodwill for Day Lewis' performance, but a lot of academy members don't like that it doesn't have a traditional story or a-z arc, and again, the post modern ending.
Atonement - the post modern ending strikes again. and the academy would rather see a traditional love story than a film that doubles as a slightly over the top commentary on our need for traditional love stories and tidy, classic closure in film.
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