I am disappointed that Zodiac got nothing. Fincher's direction was probably as good as the frontrunners in BD, and better than some of the nominees.
Casey Affleck shouldn't be a surprise...it's a fantastic turn, as good as Bardem's in many ways. He won't win, but maybe he should.
I'd like to say DDL is a lock, but then I thought he was in 2002 as well
And I hope Deakins doesn't split the vote against himself. He should be 1-2 in that category.