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Wow...did you guys say the same thing when DVD first hit the shelves almost 10 years ago?
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Ten years ago I did not have a DVD player. Yes, you guessed correctly, I am not an early adopter. I certainly do not fit into category 1 of your customer pyramid, but I really do not think that I fall into category 3 either. No, I suspect I would fall into category 2.
You bring up an excellent point about Toshiba skipping a generation of customers. They are turning your pyramid on its head, and I for one think its great. I would imagine that customers in category 1 are going to buy a BD player regardless of price, but those that fall into 2 or 3 are going be more discerning. For all intents and purposes there is an equivalent product out there that costs far less, hence the price outcry. I imagine this is integral to Toshiba's strategy.
Additionally, I am a lot more knowledgeable about hardware now than before, so since BD touts more players they have to live with the fact they'll be compared against one another. Given my experience with Samsung, Panasonic, Sony, and Pioneer products, I have a preconceived notion of who I consider superior (basically I've listed them from worst to first there, IMO), and I will compare their price and features and if they're similar I will go with the brand I trust.