Re: When Did TV Shows Shrink?
I don't see an end to the trend, either, or at least, no chance of reversal. The "remote-free TV" experiment on Fox failed miserably: They cut commercials by 50% but got only 30% higher advertising rates. So "remote-free TV" represents 35% less revenue than the normal amount of commercials. I think the only way we're going to see a reduction in commercials is if people pay extra, specifically, for that. Otherwise, folks who really want television without commercials are going to have to wait for the DVD.
Viewers have long condemned the ratings system as an inaccurate depiction of what people are watching, and have clamored for something else, because they believe that the ratings are what is causing the push towards more commercials. However, that's not the case: Even though ratings themselves are somewhat inaccurate, the ratings system ITSELF is actually biased in viewers' favor right now. Remember, the objective of the ratings is to measure how effectively advertisers can rely on having more revenue directed their way due to their sponsorship. Eventually, there will be data available that will clearly show that a lot of people are ignoring commercials, or even skipping them, and research will more clearly show how much LESS VALUABLE commercials are to advertisers, and as a result we may see an increase in the proportion of time devoted to advertising, or an increase in the level of invasiveness of advertising (as well as perhaps a continuing drop in budgets and in the quality of the choices available), to make up for some of the lost revenue.
We were discussing this on another forum a few weeks ago, and I was trying to think of what the networks can do to address this death spiral. I envisioned the networks moving to a multi-channel distribution model, that looks something like this:
1) Every show we see now on Broadcast Network XXC will appear first, in (say) April, on Premium Network XXA, uncut, uninterrupted, and with no commercial bugs or overlays. At the same time, it would be available via Pay Per View, and via Premium Network XXA's On Demand service. Perhaps at the same time, or shortly thereafter, the episodes will become available for streaming download from Netflix or other pay-for-streaming services, or perhaps even on quickly-pressed DVDs.
2) Then, in July, the episodes will be rebroadcast on Cable Network XXB. This time, they'll have commercials inserted, and perhaps some content removed. There maybe station identification bugs, and perhaps even overlays used to advertise other Cable Network XXB programming. These same versions of the episodes will be available on Cable Network XXB's On Demand service, while the uncut versions remain available, perhaps rerun in wee hours on Premium Network XXA, as well as through Netflix or other pay-for-streaming services.
3) Then, in October, these same episodes will start their broadcast run on Broadcast Network XXC. They will again have commercials inserted, just like when they were broadcast on Cable Network XXB, but in addition, they will have a significant amount of product and service advertising overlay -- perhaps as much as half of the program will have advertising for some product or service, either on a strip on the bottom, left or right. (It will move around from one spot to another during the episode.) The episodes, complete with product and service advertising overlays, will also become available on On Demand service Broadcast Network XXC makes available to cable companies, and on their websites (or through Hulu, perhaps).
I don't see any reason why (say) Heroes shouldn't be presented on a premium channel first, then a few months later on cable, and then a few months later on broadcast. It seems to me that this approach makes programming available in a variety of formats (i.e., with a variety of different levels of advertising invasiveness), and timeliness -- just pick which one you feel is worth it to you. I think this would offer the cable networks far more "original" programming to present (so it would be good for them) and I think it is a good arrangement for the premium networks as well. They would have to make room for a lot more episodic programming, but I think there is a lot of advantage to be had, offering the uncut and uninterrupted non-commercial versions, three months in advance.
I'm not saying that I have reason to believe that things are going this way, but I do see it as a viable alternative, and perhaps one of the very few alternatives that actually makes what different customers want each available to them (for a price proportional to the value delivered to each).