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Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

#1
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1/15/09 at 8:05am
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My first PDA was a Palm-based Sony Clie, bought six years ago, and I was hooked immediately. I replaced it a year later -- they don't bounce well on asphalt -- with a Palm Zire 72, and it's lasted me five more years. But unfortunately Palm effectively stopped hardware and software development five years ago with the Zire lineup. And compared to the iPhone today, the Palm is cro-magnon. I need a new PDA but there's nothing reasonable for a guy like me. So I wait.

Last summer a friend and Palm advocate (who helped me with my first Palm) told me Palm had a killer new OS coming. I was skeptical, to be kind, having given up on Palm as mostly dead.

But then comes the Pre announcement! First, the introduction webpage shows some promising features, especially ones the iPhone still lacks: copy and paste, system wide search, turn-by-turn GPS, quality camera.

But it's still promises and pixie dust. Then I see the CES demo video. Boy, this is starting to look good. They are definitely trying to take the best of the old Palm concepts and the best of the new iPhone features and advance the whole system for general users. And I'm beginning to be swayed: Palm might have a killer new system. Not an iPhone killer, but hopefully real competition.

The downside is they copied the iPhone's worst trait: locked to a single carrier; Sprint in this case. ((sigh) Hopefully poor ol' Verizon will get a good smartphone someday.)

But this might really be a quality new system from Palm. What do you think about it?

Pre webpage

Palm CES Launch Demo
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#2
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1/15/09 at 2:45pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Until the Pre ships and actually works, it is hard to say anything. Since it is Webkit based the internet browsing experience should be good. But third party Apps will be essentially limited to what the iPhone had before the SDK: interpreted stuff (like JavaScript) running on top of Webkit. Yes some cool stuff can be done that way, but it will be more limited, slower and less powerful that the post SDK iPhone.

IMO so far the only technologically speaking viable competition for the iPhone is Android, but all the current hardware running Android is poor. I don't see Pre attracting too many developers.

Also, since you're a Palm fan, keep in mind that the Pre has nothing in common with prior Palm devices other than the name. No Palm OS software will run on it.
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#3
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1/15/09 at 2:52pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Todorov
But third party Apps will be essentially limited to what the iPhone had before the SDK: interpreted stuff (like JavaScript) running on top of Webkit.
I think they are far more than that: it sounds like they will have access to the hardware and interact with the gesture and notification system. But this is a worry: interpreted code is never as fast as compiled. A gaming machine this is not.

I once was a Palm fan. Not anymore. But this is quite interesting, the need to buy all new programs notwithstanding.

What's exciting, after watching the demo, is that whereas the iPhone is its own interesting beast, the Pre is a PDA through and through.
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#4
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1/16/09 at 7:10am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Two big strikes for me:
-Sprint only
-Lack of real development environment, um that didnt work out so hot for Apple developers, did it. Don't expect any good games for example. Interpreted/Javascript is a non starter.

Love the replaceable battery and the integrated storage AND add in cards tho. I know why Apple doesnt do those but that doesnt mean I agree. I have little interest in getting a Pre (dumb name) for myself but it will put some pressure on Apple to keep ahead of the pack. Speaking of the dumb name, the name itself seems designed as a self destruct sequence, Pre to what? As soon as something better comes along you are going to want to upgrade to that?

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#5
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1/16/09 at 8:24pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

I'm eager to have a look at the Pre. I had Treos for four years and they were real workhorses even if the OS was long in the tooth. And I definitely welcome it being released initially by Sprint. My Treos had superb nationwide coverage under Sprint (and fast EVDO speeds to boot.) AT&T is an abomination that I would dearly love to rid myself of. Just need the right device to replace my iPhone with.
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#6
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1/16/09 at 11:56pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

I have been using Sprint for years and in the middle of the country it is the best service. I still like CDMA vs GSM anyway as far as service and connection is concerned. I have never had an issue with the phone not connecting due to poor or no service no matter where I go. I will give this new Palm a good looking over when it comes out for sure.

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#7
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1/17/09 at 9:19am
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Why Palm and others will have a lot of trouble:

Fascinating Business week article about iPhone app store development.

In view of the App store announcing their 500 millionth download, most developers are no longer interested in supporting any platform but the iPhone. One quote from the article:
Quote:
This is also the view of Jeff Holden, CEO of Pelago Inc. When he created the social networking company, Jeff—who by the way was a pal of Jeff Bezos at DE Shaw, and was a member of the core team that built Amazon.com—fully intended to follow the conventional wisdom for how to build a sizeable, fast-growing software company: get your apps on as many platforms and devices as possible. But late last year, he crunched the numbers and came to a shocking conclusion: that the 13 million owners of iPhone owners had already downloaded as much software as—are you sitting down—1.1 billion other cell-phone owners. (FYI, he’s assuming that 25% of non-iPhone owners download anything at all, and that they download 2.5 apps on average). Now, using projected Q4 iPhone sales and Apple’s new download data, 17 million iPhone owners have downloaded as much software at 1.6 billion other cellphone owners! “Why would I ever build for anything but the iPhone,” he says.

This of course doesn't even go into how much less painful it is to develop and distribute for the iPhone vs. other platforms where you have to make deals with individual carriers as well as using inferior development tools and APIs, multiple incompatible hardware, etc.
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#8
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1/19/09 at 11:37am
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Re: Why Palm and others will have a lot of trouble:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Todorov
Fascinating Business week article about iPhone app store development.

In view of the App store announcing their 500 millionth download, most developers are no longer interested in supporting any platform but the iPhone. One quote from the article:

This of course doesn't even go into how much less painful it is to develop and distribute for the iPhone vs. other platforms where you have to make deals with individual carriers as well as using inferior development tools and APIs, multiple incompatible hardware, etc.

It is interesting. I must say, I've always considered a fart funny, but until now never dreamed it would generate money. Farts.com gave it their best, but little did they know - IPhone Apps: iPhone App Store Hits 500 Million Downloads, We Break Down the Numbers

Love this chart and agree with the 1% assertion
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#9
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5/30/09 at 8:07am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

I'm seeing positive pre-release info on the Pre.
Boy Genius loves initial experience
All Things D has appealing demo
Palm Pre connects to iTunes for music management
Verizon will have Pre, maybe this year?


It's that last bit, that Verizon will have the Pre, that's most interesting to me. The iPhone, for all its greatness, is still only on AT&T and is likely to be locked there for two more years. The Pre could be on the largest carrier by next year and be available to a far larger market than the iPhone soon. And there's no reason to think it wouldn't also be on AT&T shortly.

If the Pre is competent, it could tap into the market that wants an iPhone but won't switch to AT&T. A market that I think is is large; I think there's a lot of people like me that are late adopters, want an iPhone-like device (not a sucky Blackberry Storm) but are not going to switch to AT&T for it. If the Pre gets a piece of that, it could be reasonably successful.

Six months ago, I thought Palm a dinosour refusing to admit its own extinction. Now, I'm excited about the Pre and looking forward to the release reviews.
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#10
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5/30/09 at 9:26pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

I still think Palm is dead man walking and Pre doomed itself by launching on Sprint.

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#11
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6/3/09 at 7:20pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Reviews are rolling in. On the whole, positive comments. We'll see if they actually sell any. It's going to be interesting seeing, for the first time (?), a competent iPhone competitor, and not a half-baked touch interface smashed onto 10-year old technology (Storm). Better, the Pre has different design goals than the iPhone. I hope it succeeds. This might be my wife's next phone.

David Pogue at NYT
Quote:
The Pre, which goes on sale Saturday, is an elegant, joyous, multitouch smartphone; it’s the iPhone remixed.
...
So do the Pre’s perks (beautiful hardware and software, compact size, keyboard, swappable battery, flash, multitasking, calendar consolidation) outweigh its weak spots (battery life, occasional sluggishness, ringer volume)?
Oh, yes indeedy. Especially when you consider that Verizon Wireless has announced that it will carry the Pre “in the next six months or so.”

Walt Mossberg
Quote:
I’ve been testing the Pre for a couple of weeks, and I like it a lot, despite some important drawbacks that will have to be remedied.
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#12
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6/4/09 at 5:38am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Definitely sounds like it has potential. Unfortunately we have another BB Storm on our hands -- launched prematurely due to efforts to beat an arbitrary deadline (in this case the iPhone 3.0 launch):

Mossberg:
Quote:
In fact, during my testing, one of my downloads from the App Catalog caused my Pre to crash disastrously — all my email, contacts and other data were wiped out, and the phone was unable to connect to the Sprint network or Wi-Fi. Palm conceded the catastrophe was due to problems it still has getting the App Catalog to work with the phone’s internal memory, and explained that this is one reason it hasn’t widely distributed the developer tools.

There have been how many official reviews out -- five? So 20% of the time disaster occurs. Imagine the reaction when at least 20% of early buyer hit this bug (I say at least, because they don't send back their phones after a few days the way reviewers do, they keep using them).

What's more the, whole disaster may have been avoided by not offering ANY apps at release, and simply promising an App Store later. By insisting on the "see, we have an app store too" checkbox, Palm may have written their death sentence.
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#13
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6/5/09 at 11:19am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Likely to fail:
Palm: Likely to Stumble with Pre - BusinessWeek

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#14
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6/5/09 at 11:47am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

i've not read this entire thread, but has anyone mentioned that on ars they are saying that the itunes compatiblity is from a hacked driver making it look like a ipod to itunes?
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#15
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6/5/09 at 12:25pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Yes. Hackity hack hack. And likely to cause apples ire but not technically illegal.

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#16
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6/5/09 at 12:59pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
Yes. Hackity hack hack. And likely to cause apples ire but not technically illegal.
Perfectly legal, and also supremely easy for Apple to break in 8.2.1 (see Daring Fireball for the details).

Not smart on Palm's part. What do they tell all their customers a week from now -- sorry but big bad mean Apple broke it.

Although my guess is Apple won't even bother. Sprint's CEO was just quoted by Appleinsider as saying that Verizon's claim that they will get the Pre in 6 months is lie. Between that and iPhone 3.0 hitting soon, El Jobso's Apple return imminent (see WSJ) I think that the Pre will be forgotten by Tuesday.
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#17
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6/5/09 at 5:42pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

I just saw the article about Pre's exclusivity with Sprint being longer than six months and groaned a little. If so, I think that's Palm digging their own grave. Is Sprint the least of the three networks?

But, it might be seven months...Sprint doesn't want Verizon customers to think they can just wait a few more months to get the Pre at V. They want network switchers. They also do want a drop in stock price from a minimal exclusivity deal.

It's going to be interesting. The Pre reviews have all been very positive. It has weaknesses, but I think this is no comparison the the Storm. The Storm appears to be a shellacking of Blackberry; a crude touch interface on an old foundation not meant for touch. The Pre, like iPhone, is a from-the-ground-up modern design built for touch; and built well.
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#18
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6/5/09 at 5:49pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Posten
Wow! Can you imagine a company with a nascent new smartphone not wholeheartedly embracing the developer community from day one? That would be disastrous. Palm should take notice from the iPhone's first-year failure.
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#19
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6/6/09 at 5:28am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

The problem that Pre is going to have is that the iPhone 3.0 firmware will address most of the software advantages it currently has over the iPhone ("cut-and-paste, multi-tasking, and so forth); while the new next-generation "iPhone Video" (available in July) will address most of the hardware advantages (better camera,"turn-by-turn" enhanced GPS features, and so on). The only advantage that the Pre will be left with after the launch of the 'iPhone Video" will be the integrated physical keyboard.

Add to all of that the fact that the iPhone currently has an application library that numbers around 35,000 compared to the Pre's dozen, and it just doesn't seem likely that the Pre will have much of a chance in the marketplace.

The Pre needed to come out in January. Launching within days of a new firmware release for the iPhone and within a month of a next-generation iPhone -- while locking the carrier to Sprint for the first six months -- was suicide for the device.

Joseph
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#20
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6/6/09 at 6:30am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Are there any #s on the switcher rate for the iPhone? I think the analyses I've read ignore, wrongfully, phone company lock-in.

What's with Verizon? How has it missed both of the significant new phones? Are they intentionally trying to destroy carrier lock-in?

Every analysis compares iPhone & Pre to the Blackberry. Does anyone buy a Blackberry for personal use? I've never seen a BlackBerry bought except on corporate dollars. iPhone and Pre are currently not "corporate" phones; it seems pointless to compare them to the Blackberry (and vice versa) as they have totally different audiences.
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#21
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6/6/09 at 8:00am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph Bolus
The only advantage that the Pre will be left with after the launch of the 'iPhone Video" will be the integrated physical keyboard.

Actually I would call that an "advantage" and for some users (me) a disadvantage. The problem the iPhone currently has is that you can't type in horizontal mode in Mail, SMS, etc. That is fixed (FINALLY, they should have done it in iPhone 1.02) in iPhone 3.0. From everything I have heard about the Pre physical keyboard, you will be able to type faster and more accurately on a horizontal iPhone keyboard. And keep in mind that there is NO virtual keyboard on the Pre -- you must use the hardware whether you like it or not.

Anyone who needs to type in a non Latin alphabet, has a HUGE preference for a virtual keyboard for obvious reasons. I actually can type faster in Bulgarian on the iPhones Cyrillic (Russian) keyboard than I can on my Mac because I don't have to remember the key transliterations. Once they release iPhone 3.0 (horizontal keyboard) and Bulgarian language support (spell check, better layout, all the letters actually there), I will be happy to write even fairly long missives in Bulgarian, which I never would have undertaken on my Mac.

Lastly, the only category of users who would really prefer the Pre keyboard are people that have used Blackberries or similar for years -- not someone getting their first smartphone. Here is Gruber's excellent analysis:

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Gruber of Daring Fireball

Here’s what Dieter Bohn of PreCentral wrote in his Pre review:

Quote:
"I’ve been using QWERTY keyboards on phones for over seven years now and I had no problem adjusting to the Palm Pre. If you’re looking for a comparison, I’ll say that it’s not as good as your standard BlackBerry keyboard, but for 90% of people it’s going to be much better than the iPhone’s on-screen software keyboard."

My take is that his seven years of hardware keyboard use have warped his perspective. He’s got it backwards: for 90 percent of people, it doesn’t make a difference whether the keyboard is hardware or software.

So while the comparisons between the Pre and iPhone are obvious and inevitable, I think the Pre stands a much stronger chance of stealing customers away from RIM than from Apple. For as good as the Pre is, and I’m convinced it is excellent, it just doesn’t have much to offer that would sway someone considering an iPhone. But for someone considering a BlackBerry, the Pre might look very sweet: a big bright screen, a beautiful modern user interface design, a kick-ass mobile web browser, and, yes, a hardware keyboard. The Pre is the BlackBerry Bold done right.
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#22
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6/6/09 at 8:38am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Todorov
Actually I would call that an "advantage" and for some users (me) a disadvantage. The problem the iPhone currently has is that you can't type in horizontal mode in Mail, SMS, etc. That is fixed (FINALLY, they should have done it in iPhone 1.02) in iPhone 3.0. From everything I have heard about the Pre physical keyboard, you will be able to type faster and more accurately on a horizontal iPhone keyboard. ANd keep in mind that there is NO virtual keyboard on the Pre -- you must use the hardware whether you like it or not.

Ted,

I tend to agree with you on this. Some of the Pre reviewers are already stating that if you're using the Pre's browser in landscape mode it's a real inconvenience to have to switch to portrait mode and then slide the keyboard out just in order to type in a password or whatever for the site you're visiting. And - as you indicated - with the 3.0 firmware the iPhone will have the virtual keyboard available in landscape mode for all applications; not just the browser. In any event it takes most iPhone users --- even users coming over from a BlackBerry -- just a week or two to get really proficient with the more convenient virtual iPhone keyboard. And don't forget that the iPhone virtual keyboard does a lot more than just help out with different languages: It actually has different dedicated keys depending on the application in use! For example, when typing in a URL or an email address it's nice to have a dedicated ".com" button. A physical keyboard will never be able to do that!

I *do* have to congratulate Palm for at least bringing something to market that genuinely makes a sincere attempt to be a true iPhone competitor. It's an elegant little phone that could have made some noise in the marketplace about six months ago. The timing of its release, though, couldn't have been worse!

Joseph
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#23
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6/7/09 at 3:52pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph Bolus
I *do* have to congratulate Palm for at least bringing something to market that genuinely makes a sincere attempt to be a true iPhone competitor. It's an elegant little phone that could have made some noise in the marketplace about six months ago. The timing of its release, though, couldn't have been worse!
How so? It's coming into a smartphone market that is only now beginning. What better time to get into the game when there is only one competitor and it's on a different carrier.

This may be a lousy time to be a non-Apple smartphone locked to AT&T. But for the other 66% of the market, on the other two carriers, this is maybe not so bad a time to try and make some money.

Everyone seems to view the upper-end phone category as allowing only a single player. Were phones like that, there'd only be Nokia, no Samsung, LG, or Motorola. Were computing devices like that, we wouldn't be chatting in an "Apple" forum
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#24
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6/7/09 at 9:56pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveF
How so? It's coming into a smartphone market that is only now beginning. What better time to get into the game when there is only one competitor and it's on a different carrier.

This may be a lousy time to be a non-Apple smartphone locked to AT&T. But for the other 66% of the market, on the other two carriers, this is maybe not so bad a time to try and make some money.

Everyone seems to view the upper-end phone category as allowing only a single player. Were phones like that, there'd only be Nokia, no Samsung, LG, or Motorola. Were computing devices like that, we wouldn't be chatting in an "Apple" forum
"the other two carriers"? Poor T-Mobile (and Android G-phone) -- I guess they don't count at all

Your point is well taken, but I think that the Pre has a problem of playing catch up. They have come close (minus the App store -- a big minus) of matching the iPhone 3G -- for all of two days before the new iPhone model gets announced. And in the future, Apple has more resources and is likely to stay ahead. And the carrier shelter that the Pre has now will go away once LTE is introduced, and the iPhone goes to T-Mobile and Verizon as well. The Pre will have to compete head to head with the iPhone on capabilities and price. IMO it will be a losing battle. Palm's only real hope is be bought by Nokia or Microsoft.

Honestly I'm amazed that it hasn't happened already.
What are they waiting for Symbian and WinMo to suddenly blossom?
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#25
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6/8/09 at 5:37am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Pre's behind the game. But the game is only beginning, I'll assert. iPhone was only just beginning two years ago against the undisputed, entrenched leader RIM. RIM is still in business and iPhone is going gangbusters despite no acceptance in big-business corporate America.

I don't know if the Pre will succeed. But I think that carrier lock in is a significant and underestimated factor. Pre is only competing against the iPhone by those willing to switch from Sprint to AT&T. And it has a chance of getting switchers from Verizon, T-Mobile (ahem ) and even AT&T. It may be a tough sell, but the iPhone isn't perfect and Pre's philosophy of integrated contacts and multi-tasking may win people over.

I hope it succeeds. This sector is just beginning. And good competition is needed.
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#26
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6/8/09 at 6:25am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveF
Pre's behind the game. But the game is only beginning, I'll assert. iPhone was only just beginning two years ago against the undisputed, entrenched leader RIM. RIM is still in business and iPhone is going gangbusters despite no acceptance in big-business corporate America.
...
I hope it succeeds. This sector is just beginning. And good competition is needed.
I hope it succeeds too -- competition is only good.

I would take exception to "no acceptance in big-business corporate America." I work for such a company, and there are way more iPhones than Blackberries at this point. The company doesn't buy iPhones for employees, but has been subsidizing the iPhone/AT&T bills for people who handed back their company Blackberries. The iPhone "just works" with the corporate Exchange server -- no additional support needed.

So yes, at least in my corporate case the company isn't buying people iPhones (I don't think they are buying anyone Blackberries right now either due to the bad economy), but that doesn't matter because even some people who had free corporate Blackberries have chosen to buy their own iPhones.

Eventually the writing on the wall will be read and they will decide to save money by getting rid of the Blackberry servers.

Just like PCs came in the early 80s over IT's dead bodies, so are iPhones being brought in today by individual employees. IT has no power to keep them out and eventually will give up the fight. At that point RIM will be in TONS of trouble, unless they can produce Blackberries that successfully compete with iPhone in the consumer space.
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#27
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6/8/09 at 12:44pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Palm who Pre What?

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#28
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6/8/09 at 1:31pm
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Todorov
I would take exception to "no acceptance in big-business corporate America." I work for such a company, and there are way more iPhones than Blackberries at this point. The company doesn't buy iPhones for employees, but has been subsidizing the iPhone/AT&T bills for people who handed back their company Blackberries. The iPhone "just works" with the corporate Exchange server -- no additional support needed.
That's very interesting. I don't see them used in the aerospace field; it's all blackberry. I understand that UTC won't use them as they don't meet their security requirements. The people I've seen with iPhones for "company" use bought them as personal phones and use the web stuff to get to company webmail. All just anecdotal, agreeing with what I've read.

Very interesting if the iPhone is making real inroads as a company phone.
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#29
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6/11/09 at 7:29am
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Ars has an interesting first-part review of the Pre.
Quote:
My experience so far with the Pre is that it's as good a messaging device as the iPhone is a media device. ... where webOS really excels—at least, for the moment—is in the way that it embeds the Pre seamlessly within the much-hyped "cloud" messaging ecosystem.


This introduction was revelatory in a way the other reviews have not been. And it told me that, really, the new Palm Pre philosophy is not suited to me as much as the iPhone. I don't IM, twitter, or chat. My email use is modest. I'm more about the apps, calendar, games, and calculators.
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6/25/09 at 9:54am
  • Joined: March 2001
  • Location: Rochester, NY
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Re: Pre: Palm's got skills, but will they pay the bills?

Halfway through, and Ars's Review on the Pre is very interesting.

It's exciting to see a new device that isn't aping the iPhone, but is bringing a new and different design philosophy. And one that looks the equal, perhaps better in ways, than that of the iPhone.

If the Pre survives and if it gets developer support, it will provide a real choice to people. It has different methods and goals for managing your data that is going to work better for some people than the iPhone.

This isn't a zero sum game; this device could help increase the total smartphone marketplace and keep Apple innovating fresh ideas.

And while the Card metaphor and gesture area feel so right to me -- better than iPhones rummage-the-desktop metaphor -- I agree with those that the appstore trumps all, currently.
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