What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

In the upcoming Cruise film Valkryie they show the plot to assassinate Hitler in 1944. We know it failed. But, if it succeeded. How would the world have been changed? I know the plotters had a plan for surrender that included allowing Germany to keep some of its conquered territory. They even had a new government plan.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

It's kind of a mix; there were several attempts to overthrow Hitler from inside, this is one of those stories. If it had happened very early, and he was just a puppet, he had some of the best military strategists in the world.. and the world would look much, much different.. without the ill-thought Russian campaign, Germany would have been difficult to stop.

If it had happened at the time in question in the film, Germany would have made concessions, but would have held onto fair slices of Eastern Europe and potentially gigantic slices of Africa.

I'd have to look at the timetables of the film. Problem is, the film doesn't seem that historically accurate or interesting.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

Considering that the Allied Forces and the Soviets already had the Germans in retreat by the time the film takes place, my guess is not much. After all, the Führer didn't live too much longer anyway; only until April of the following year. Now if someone could have assassinated him in 1939, I think the difference would incredible. Whether the Nazi movement would have collapsed or not is another question; it's more likely that another charismatic, power-hungry candidate would fill the power vacuum and continue down a similar course.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

The real interesting one was the fall & winter of 1939, when several German political factions (including nationalists who thought that the war would result in total disaster, even if it did seem to go well at first) cooperated with each other, British and French agents, & the Vatican to attempt to get rid of Hitler, reorganize the government, & end the war all at once. It came very close to success, & in that scenario a lot of interesting things would have happened.

Obviously, there would have been no extermination camps ; the history of world Jewry would have been very different, & the Middle Eastern situation would probably have been settled differently. The British, without the economic death-blow dealt by the second war, would probably still be a major world power, & the situation in South Asia probably would not include a nuclear-armed India & Pakistan. The Soviets would not have gotten nearly as strong a hold in Eastern Europe, & without the "Great Patriotic War" to rally people behind Stalin, the Soviet system would probably have distintegrated or reformed itself much earlier (probably the latter, in the absence of the destruction wrought by the war).

In the Pacific, it's hard to say what kind of accommodation might have been reached between the US and Japan ; the Roosevelt administration thought they could intimidate the Japanese into giving up their ambitions in China, & considered them militarily contemptible, assuming that, if a war with Japan did come, it would end with an American victory in very short order. Considering the internal instabilities of the Nationalist government which we were backing, & the undesirability of letting the Communists take over, particularly with Russia (Japan's traditional enemy) free to act in the East, there might have been a modus vivendi reached ; but considering the political problems within Japan itself, maybe not.

In the rest of the world, at a minimum, we can expect that decolonization would have happened much more slowly, & in a more orderly fashion, without the combination of the local resistance movements which formed against the Axis powers (remembering that Ho Chi Minh, for example, started as an anti-Japanese guerillero, & supported for that reason by the USA) & the later support by the Soviet & Chinese Communists.

None of this would have been possible by middle '44. The Russians were out for blood, millions of Jews, Gypsies, Catholics & other "undersirables" had already been killed, & the Pacific war was well into its endgame.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

I'm not so sure about that. the Empire was already into a bit of a decline after the first World War. Also, when I visited London last September, what I saw was a city on the leading edge of technology in its architecture alone. That most likely would not have been possible if huge chunks of the city weren't completely destroyed during WWII, forcing the city to rebuild itself big time in the later years. Without this forced re-urbanization, London, and much of the UK for that matter, would have most likely stagnated over the years.

The UK may no longer be a superpower by itself, but it's still a major contributor to the Global Village, with a quality of life that greatly surpasses the quality of life of many nations. That probably would have never happened if it didn't get its ass so thoroughly kicked.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

True, but the bulk of them hadn't. Most of the deaths in the extermination camps (only 6 of the concentration camps, all located in Poland, were built with gas chambers purely for the purpose of executing undesirables, the rest killed their millions "accidentally" by overwork, malnutrition and general abuse) took place in the last six months or so of the war. By that time it was clear to all but the most delluded that the war was lost. This led the most fanatical Nazis to try to complete "the Final Solution" in the time they had left. Hence the orders to keep trains moving east to the camps even when the rolling stock was desperately need to move troops and supplies to the fighting areas to buy time for German civilians to escape west. (Everyone knew they'd be much better off surrendering to the Western allies than to the Russians.) Ironically they were often aided in this effort by the less-than-fanatical Nazis and non-Nazis, even some who had opposed the program, because they feared what would happen if the truth came out. They hoped to empty the camps and then detroy them and literally bury the evidence. Survivors would have made such a cover-up impossible.

So if things had been different in July 1944, millions might have been saved. That would, of course, depend on how well Valkeryie worked out. I doubt that Staffenberg's group really knew what Hilter was up to in those Polish camps. Many who heard the rumors (in and out of Germany) rejected them out of hand because such a thing seemed too much even for Hitler. But what would they have done when they found out? It wasn't just the army that held power in Germany. Hitler deliberately followed a policy of divide and conquer, even within his own goverment. There would have been a civil war withing Germany as the "honorable" elements of the armed forces fought the SS and the Nazi party apparatus which would have been desperate to conceal such war crimes.

I think the plotters were kidding themselves in thinking they could come to come king of negotiated settlement with the Allies that would leave them with any captured territory or their colonies. Things had gone too far by then. But Eisenhower and Roosevelt would certainly have considered some "off the record" agreements in princple about the shape of post-war Germany without publicly giving up "unconditional surrender."

A German surrender in July 1944, before the Soviet Union occupied the Eastern part of the country or the Allies broke out from Normandy, would have save the lives of a lot of civilians in a lot of countries, not to mentino a lot of Allied and German soldiers. This wouldn't have meant much to Stalin, but it would have carried weight with Roosevelt, Churchill and Eisenhower. So would the fact that lots of combat-tested troops would have then been available for transfer to the Pacific ETO, where, despite the turn of momentum, a lot of hard fighting was still (correctly) expected.

Ultimately there are just too many variables to guess what would have happened, but there are lots of things that could have happened, most of which would have been better for all concerned than the actual events.

Regards,

Joe

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

Actually some of the statements in the first paragraph are not correct, you can check this link for some more information.

Holocaust Timeline: The Camps

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

Warning Spoiler! Click to show

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

Henry, while I get your point, it should be self evident that any assassination plot failed, unless you've hidden under rocks. And Tom Cruise, in every commercial I see right now, announces how stunning it is that there was "such a plot" and "what would have happened" if "only they succeeded".

So, unless you've never learned anything about WWII, didn't see a single commercial for this, etc. then you know it's a movie about an assassination plot, and you know it didn't succeed.

Or, maybe you are being sarcastic and I missed it.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

When will I ever learn?

ALWAYS add the

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

And make sure you avoid all the Titanic posts.

Joe

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

I think at best Germany might not have been divided, at least with the Russians. If the plot had succeeded the Anglo-American-Russian alliance might have broken down much sooner.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

If that's a joke, Francois, it's a sick one. The productive capacity of the UK was so damaged that they had food rationing (not to speak of restrictions on less vital products) into the 1950s. The British economy continued to be a complete disaster into the 1970s, when gas drilling in the North Sea began to provide a significant revenue stream. The average standard of living in Britain is still lower than in any other north-western European country, Canada, Australia, or New Zealand. Most of the "leading edge architecture" that you saw is less than 20 years old, because it's only in that time that there has been capital available for "re-urbanization" — many of the Blitzed areas were simply bare ground until quite recently. It wasn't quite East Germany, but that's really the closest comparison in some ways.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

I'm curious as to what that statement is based on since the movie has not been released.

I for one am very interested in seeing this film since I've been intrigued by the July plot since seeing a "You Are There" special on CBS many, many years ago. I also paid a visit to the Plotzensee prison where many of the plotters were executed. My only reservation is the casting of Tom Cruise as Count Von Stauffenberg. All I'll be seeing is Tom Cruise with an eye patch and it will be hard to suspend belief.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

The Stauffenberg plot went down on 20 July 1944. By this time the Allies had barely taken St. Lo: Operation Cobra was launched 25 July 1944. So they had a toe-hold in Normandy at this time. The political turmoil of a Hitler assassination may have undercut the German defensive efforts but by then they had squandered many troops in Normandy: Rundstedt and Rommel argued to fall back and make a strong defensive position further east. In either case the German army probably would have been pushed out of France by late fall.

What would have happened with Hitler out of the way is that the Battle of the Bulge wouldn't have happened - it was all his stupid idea. The Germans could have made a stand at the Rhine and put most of their efforts holding back the Soviets. Instead Hitler had the Germans strip the eastern front to launch the Battle of the Bulge. IIRC he thought they could take Antwerp and then blackmail the Allies by the threat of the Soviets overrunning western Europe.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

It wasn't meant as a joke. Also, it wasn't meant to diminish the impact of the losses on the British people.

The reality is, Britons are tough!

All that crap they went through in WWII, and they never capitulated! And yes, life was difficult after the war, but things could only get better! By the time the Sixties arrived (only twenty years after the end of the war), the UK was already rebuilding itself! New housing! New jobs! new opportunities! The British Invasion! Pop culture! Monty Python!

And yes, the Seventies were a bit rough. But then again, they were rough around the world. The UK wasn't alone in that situation.

Even today, after having rebuilt their nation, they still maintained a stiff upper lip even during the tube bombings of 2005. It even gave birth to the rallying cry "We Are Not Afraid". And unlike other nations that yell out the same thing after a terrorist attack, you felt as if the UK meant it!

The city and country I visited last September didn't look like a place with a low living standard. Granted, living in London is bloody expensive. But when you consider what you get out of it...

To be honest, if I was given the choice between living in Canada or living in the UK many years ago, if I knew then what I know today, I would have chosen the UK hands down. It's a nation that, despite having been beaten down to the brink of extinction in WWII, resurfaced stronger than ever, braver than ever, with a new outlook on life.

If Hitler were successfully assassinated and the London Blitz never occurred, all that transpired in the UK in the last sixty years probably never would have happened. Instead, the country would have probably become an old relic of the past, having lost all their ambitions along with their incredible bravery.

Churchill guessed right. It was their finest hour.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

The British sports cars which exploded onto the American scene in the 1950's were a key British export to get money (along with Scotch whisky and other luxury goods). By today's standards they were primitive but they were built out of existing sedan (saloon) car components: engines, trannys, rear ends. Donald Healy was made a CBE for the Austin-Healey sportscars. IIRC the engines were originally sourced from taxis and tractors. Colin Chapman's Lotus company made hay in Formula 1 racing with the all-aluminum Coventry Climax engine which was originally designed as a lightweight engine to power fire-fighting pumps during the Blitz. The Coventry Climax had the sexiest seal ever on the valve cover: nude Lady Godiva on horseback.



The point being that the Brits took the engineering parts that existed - for better or worse - and produced many classic sportscars for export to try to improve their financial state after the war.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

A tad off topic but I just saw something on the morning news that I can hardly believe, some family in Holland Township with three small children saw fit to name one of them Adolph Hitler!

Apparently it made headlines because the kid just had a birthday (his 3rd if I recall right) and a local Shop Rite supermarket refused to put that name on the boy's birthday cake.

They interviewed the father and he swears there's nothing wrong with naming his son that. Is he TRYING to get that child beat up on a daily basis and chastised from society?

I'm sorry but what a moron those parents are, when that kid is old enough he should have his name changed.

Here's an article about it...

http://www.lehighvalleylive.com/warr...l=3&thispage=1

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

If only Hitler had had a bunch of nukes... just imagine how modern London might look now!

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

Isn't there already a thread about this? This topic is already heady enough, without bringing a couple of Neo-Nazi white supremists from Pennsylvania into the mix.

Re: What if the plot to kill Hitler succeeded?

I posted that before I started the topic which I originally didn't intend to start but later changed my mind which accounts for the mention in this thread.

Derailing this thread is what motivated me to start one for that topic specifically.