2009 at the Box Office

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I heard that fox had made some trailers that cameron was not happy with. so he was going to make his own trailer for it. I think that is the reason for the delay.

Jacob

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Terry, I might be looking a bit too far ahead, but there seems to be a unique situation developing on August 28th as both Rob Zombie's Halloween 2 and the latest Final Destination flick will arriving. Since both are horror films and targeting the same demographic, there was talk of one or the other (with the likely candidate being FD) moving, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Obviously, both studios are supremely confident--any idea how that's going to play out?

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Terry & Jacob...thanks for the update.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

no problem.

Jacob

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Brett, WB (New Line) should move FD out of that date in my opinion. As you pointed out, it doesn't look like either film will be moving. I think H2 is going to have very little difficulty winning that weekend. I still think that there is a (small) chance that WB will move FD out of that date. Regardless if it moves or not, H2 wins that weekend.

Chris, not a problem.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Terry,
Any news on BATMAN 3? This report from BATMAN ON FILM makes me a little pessimistic on the prospects of Nolan returning:

BATMAN-ON-FILM.COM - Chris Nolan and BATMAN 3: FAR from a done deal? (June 16, 2009)

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Larry, WB really wants Nolan to return for the third movie, especially considering the movie made more than $1 billion worldwide. So much so they gave him a fat deal for his upcoming sci-fi flick "Inception" (rumored to have a budget in the neighborhood of $175-$200 million), hoping this would "grease the wheels" so-to-speak for a deal for another Batman movie (for which he'll likely snag one of the richest directing deals in history). Heath Ledger's death did throw a monkey wrench into things a bit because Nolan was planning on using him in the follow-up. At this point, he doesn't have any desire to recast the role out of respect to Heath's memory and his amazing (Oscar-winning) performance. Nolan, his brother and writing partner Jonathan, as well as David Goyer have been working out story ideas for a third movie, even as he works on "Inception".

If, and I stress if, Nolan and his team can't come up with a suitable story for the next movie, he'll probably opt out as director and be given a producing credit (mirroring Tim Burton's participation in "Batman Forever"). At the end of the day, I think Nolan and co. will end up doing the movie, but we'll probably have to wait until 2012 to see it.

Thanks to the critical and commercial success of TDK, many A-list actors and actresses are very anxious to work with Nolan. Nolan now finds himself on a select list of directors that everyone wants to work with. From what I understand a lot of high caliber talent have expressed interest in appearing in the next Batman flick despite there not being a script. What little is known is that there will be a villain and a "femme fatale" in the next flick. Whether or not this is Catwoman or Talia al Guhl (or someone else) remains to be seen, but the studio wants Catwoman and Riddler (and/or Penguin) to be the Dark Knight's adversaries in film #3.

Regardless of how this turns out, I think it would be a major surprise if Nolan doesn't end up helming the movie. Is there cause for real concern? A bit, but odds are that Nolan will helm at least one more Batman flick.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Friday Estimates

#1 "The Proposal" $12.4 million
#2 "The Hangover" $8.5 million ($134.5 million) 18% Friday-to-Friday drop
#3 "Year One" $8.5 million
#4 "Up" $6.1 million ($208.9 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" $3.2 million ($35.2 million) 61% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" $2.2 million ($150.8 million) 28% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "Star Trek" $1.3 million ($236.0 million) 19% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Land of the Lost" $1.2 million ($40.9 million) 58% Friday-to-Friday drop
#9 "Imagine That" $990K ($9.2 million) 46% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Terminator Salvation" $840K ($117.3 million) 41% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "Angels & Demons" $725K ($126.1 million) 40% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Drag Me to Hell" $667K ($37.9 million) 52% Friday-to-Friday drop

"The Proposal" is on pace to become the biggest opening mark ever for star Sandra Bullock, as well as the best for co-star Ryan Reynolds in a headlining role. "The Hangover" suffered only a Friday-to-Friday dip of 18%. "Year One" looks headed for an opening just north of $20 million. "Up" also continues to show very strong legs, and "The Taking of Pelhm 1 2 3" took a steep 61% Friday-to-Friday dip to round out the top five. Looks like this weekend will feature that rarest of feats...four of the top five films topping the $20 million mark.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I think it's foolish not to recast the Joker role if the story involves the character. Heath Ledger was not so egotistical as to want the character to die with him. In fact, I think he'd feel rather embarrassed that they were labeling him "irreplaceable" in the role.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I think it's more of a concern from a public perception standpoint. People are bound to backlash re: a recast Joker regardless of who takes the role and how good he is.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Harley Quinn would be a great villianess for the sequel.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

To be fair, though, nothing in The Dark Knight's conclusion requires that the Joker return. As long as the story focuses on Batman being hunted by the police, it'll be consistent with the ending.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I agree. Many people said the same thing about Jack Nicholson's performance, and that wasn't true. The petition that was going around to never use another actor as the Joker was a bit silly, I think. And unnecessary. If the Joker is vital to the plot, he can be recast. The same thing happened with the Rachel Dawes character.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I don't think there would be a backlash. It's not like he was fired from the role and replaced with another actor. The guy died. I think the public would understand.

The other option would be to never see the Joker character on screen again just because Ledger died. I doubt most people want that, either.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

They say no player is bigger than the game itself and the same will have to hold with the Joker character.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

From what I understand, everyone at WB and with Nolan's camp (currently) feel that it's simply too soon to re-cast the role of Joker and that some time should go by (i.e. a few films down the road) before considering someone else for that role. Luckily, Batman has such a large rogue's gallery that something like that shouldn't be a problem. In terms of major superheroes, only Spider-Man has a rogue's gallery comparable to Batman's.

Plus, Heath was so iconic in the role that not many actors want to follow it so soon after his death. It would be like someone else trying to play Hannibal Lecter following "The Silence of the Lambs".

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Proposal" $34.1 million
#2 "The Hangover" $26.9 million ($152.9 million) -18%
#3 "Up" $21.3 million ($224.1 million) -31%
#4 "Year One" $20.2 million
#5 "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" $11.3 million ($43.3 million) -52%
#6 "Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" $7.3 million ($156.0 million) -24%
#7 "Star Trek" $4.7 million ($239.4 million) -14%
#8 "Land of the Lost" $4.0 million ($43.7 million) -56%
#9 "Imagine That" $3.1 million ($11.4 million) -44%
#10 "Terminator Salvation" $3.1 million ($119.5 million) -36%
#11 "Angels & Demons" $2.8 million ($128.1 million) -32%
#12 "Drag Me to Hell" $1.9 million ($39.2 million) -51%

After three consecutive weeks of down numbers compared to last June, this weekend's top 12 finished nearly 2% ahead of last year's frame, thanks in large part to the top four films all earning north of $20 million. Overall, 2009's domestic tally now stands at a towering $4.807 billion. This marks a 10% bump over last year ($4.376 billion), up 12% compared to '07 ($4.299 billion), 16% stronger than '06 ($4.132 billion), and a 20% improvement over '05 ($3.993 billion).

Sandra Bullock earned the biggest opening haul of her career as "The Proposal" got out of the gates with a stellar mark of $34.1 million, which was nearly $10 million stronger than most pre-release predictions. This also marks the first #1 debut the star has enjoyed since 1999's "Forces of Nature", which pulled in $13.5 million during its launch. For co-star Ryan Reynolds, "The Proposal" also gave him the biggest debut of his career as one of the headlining stars. Disney believes their $40 million budgeted movie will eventually top the century mark, giving Bullock the fourth such hit of her career. The romantic/comedy earned an impressive average of $11,163 from its 3,056 locations, which was the best of the top 12.

WB's "The Hangover" continues to show extremely strong legs was it was off by only 18% this weekend, which was the second best hold of the top 12. The movie has so far tallied close to $153 million and is clearly on its way to earning well north of the double-century mark by the time its run concludes.

This weekend saw Pixar/Disney's "Up" become only the 12th film in history to earn more than $20 million in four weekends of business. With $224 million already in the bank, this one looks to have clear sailing all the way to the triple-century plateau.

Sony's critically panned "Year One" debuted with just over $20 million this weekend, earning a per-theater average of $6,684 from its 3.022 locations. Many believe that this one may sink like a stone in coming weeks and may have some difficulty in earning back its reported $60 million budget.

Sony's "The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3" was off by 52% this weekend and has so far tallied $43.3 million. A final domestic haul in the neighborhood of $70-$80 is now expected. The movie will have to earn stronger numbers overseas to recoup Sony's $100 million production costs.

Fox's 'Night at the Museum' sequel has now earned $156 million. Tomorrow will see Paramount's "Star Trek" officially become the biggest ticket-seller of the franchise. Universal's "Land of the Lost" continues to fade as it has now pulled in close to $44 million. Paramount's "Imagine That" is struggling to find an audience as it has only earned a little over $11 million since its release. WB/Sony's "Terminator Salvation" is now doing steady business as it has now tallied close to $120 million. Sony's "Angels & Demons" is now sitting on a domestic haul of more than $128 million. Universal's "Drag Me to Hell" rounds out the top 12 as it has now earned a little over $39 million.

Next weekend should see business really pick up as DreamWorks/Paramount's "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" invades more than 4,000 theaters. Next week also sees the release of WB's drama "My Sister's Keeper". 'Transformers' hits theaters on Wednesday, which probably means the $158 million debut weekend record of "The Dark Knight" is still safe. Still, TF2 is tracking at having a five-day haul of no less than $175 million.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

That's what I was thinking.. will "Hangover" be the top "R" rated comedy earner? What # is that, since "hangover" is destined to go over $200M, which has to be insanely profitable considering there are no major names attached.

Up! looks to be Pixar's biggest earner since.. Nemo? I can't see any way this comes in short of $300M domestic now. It might not be the years top earner, but it's going to be in the top 5, easily it seems.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Belated thanks for all of the info on BATMAN 3, Terry! As always, your analysis is the best around.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

You're very welcome and thank you for the compliment.

Matt, "Beverly Hills Cop" ($234.8 million) and "Wedding Crashers" ($209.3 million) are currently the only R rated comedies in history to earn more than $200 million. "The Hangover" is about to join a very exclusive club.

As for "Up", it is going to become only the second flick from Pixar to end up topping the triple-century mark, joining "Finding Nemo" ($339.7 million).

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

New 'Transformers' bows No. 1 overseas

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Way back on the first page of this thread, I was among those predicting doom for 'Star Trek.' And now, as Terry pointed out, it's about to break the franchise's ticket-sales record, while the other franchise films surrounding it underperformed. I gotta say I've never been happier to be proven wrong! I saw the film for a second time this past weekend, and it's really a joy...pure, upbeat, old-school fun. Glad to see people embrace it!

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Well Transformers is doing well here in the UK, still haven't seen it, my nephew has and says it's his favourite film of the year, but than he says that after every big new film he sees.

Michael Bay isn't happy with Paramount's marketing on Transformers -



oooh! Those snooty Brits!

"Transformers" director rips studio in leaked memo - Yahoo! News

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Christ, what does he want? I can't turn on my TV without seeing a commercial for it.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

What shocked me was how much Michael Bay earned from the first Transformers - $80m! Cor blimey that's a helluva chunk of dough guv'nor. No wonder he couldn't wait to make another.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Same here, though nothing I've seen makes me particularly excited at the prospect of watching it. Is that the marketing department's fault, though, or Bay's?

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

If the thing is tracking as good as Terry says, then why waste the dough on marketing when it is not needed. Bay just wants more attention so he found something to whine about, that's all.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Michael Bay? Unfavorable reviews? Say it ain't so!

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

How bout those terrific legs on Star Trek?

From Box Office Guru

Ranking as the year's top-grossing film for possibly the last weekend, Star Trek actually saw sales inch up 1% to $5.5M and has collected a stellar $240.3M thus far. Dads rushed out to see Captain Kirk and pals as Sunday sales shot up 15% from Saturday

It was amusing reading some of the comments by members early in this thread predicting doom and gloom for Trek, calling Paramount stupid for moving the film to the summer, how it was going to be eaten up by Wolverine and Angels And Demons etc....

Trek Lives!

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I was one of the skeptical ones. It goes to show that if you make a blockbuster that is also a very good movie you not only get a big first weekend but great legs. If the Transformers 2 reviews are any indication, that film will open HUGE but not have the staying power of a Star Trek or Dark Knight.