2009 at the Box Office

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The Watchmen is really probably too cerebral of a film for a lot of people.

It will inevitably be a more polarizing piece of work than a new X-Men or Iron Man or even 300 and Sin City.

I'm actually surprised the film, as it is on screen, was allowed to be made. It screams "Hollywood suit wants you to change X, Y, and Z" right off the bat.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Today (3/13) saw '09 add yet another record to its growing list of accolades. The overall domestic box office gross passed the $2 billion mark nine days faster than the last year's then-record pace. The studios are hopeful that their lineup of releases this month can either match or exceed the record March haul of $795.2 million from '07.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Looks like a 78% drop for Watchmen, Friday-to-Friday.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

1RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN $6,750,000
2THE LAST HOUSE ON THE LEFT (2009) $5,582,000
3WATCHMEN $5,425,000
4TAKEN $2,085,000
5TYLER PERRY'S MADEA GOES TO JAIL $1,475,000
6SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE $1,390,000
7HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU$920,000
8MISS MARCH $890,000
9PAUL BLART: MALL COP $860,000
10CORALINE$660,000
11FIRED UP$650,000
12CONFESSIONS OF A SHOPAHOLIC$635,000
13GRAN TORINO $385,000
14THE READER $365,000


Miss March = DOA
Watchmen may struggle to get to $120M, which would mean could be a major, major loss (remember, Sony gets 8%, and the film had a cost of $154M)

Slumdog continues on it's post-oscar performance.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

You mean Fox gets 8%. Sony had nothing to do with this film.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Friday Estimates

#1 "Race to Witch Mountain" $6.8 million
#2 "The Last House on the Left" $5.6 million
#3 "Watchmen" $5.4 million ($73.4 million) 78% Friday-to-Friday drop (Ouch!)
#4 "Taken" $2.1 million ($122.3 million) 10% Friday-to-Friday drop
#5 "Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail" $1.5 million ($79.6 million) 40% Friday-to-Friday drop
#6 "Slumdog Millionaire" $1.4 million ($129.0 million) 29% Friday-to-Friday drop
#7 "He's Just Not That Into You" $920K ($87.0 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#8 "Miss March" $890K
#9 "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" $860K ($135.5 million) 23% Friday-to-Friday drop
#10 "Coraline" $660K ($67.2 million) 16% Friday-to-Friday drop
#11 "Fired Up" $650K ($14.4 million) 31% Friday-to-Friday drop
#12 "Confessions of a Shopaholic" $635K ($40.0 million) 37% Friday-to-Friday drop

"Race to Witch Mountain" got off to a very solid start as it pulled in just shy of $7 million yesterday. The movie is expected to do big business today and tomorrow with the family crowd and many are predicting an opening weekend haul in the neighborhood of $23-$26 million.

"The Last House on the Left" also got off to a potent start as it earned $5.6 million. A debut haul of $12-$14 million is now expected. "Watchmen" took a disastrous 78% Friday-to-Friday hit and surprisingly will have to battle 'House' for the #2 slot this weekend. "Taken" continues to show amazing legs, while "Madea Goes to Jail" rounds out the top five.

Overall, this weekend's top 12 will come in slightly below this frame last year when Fox's "Horton Hears a Who" got off to a $45 million start.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Wow, I can't believe that Last House is at #2.

And I'm not surprised at all that Watchmen (which I loved) didn't connect with a larger audience. I heard a number of pissed people, who were apparently expecting X-Men or Spider-Man, as I was leaving the theater last weekend.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Wow! 78%! Ouch! Guess hardly no one watched the WatchMen this weekend.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Watchmen rebounded big on Saturday From DHD:

1. Race To Witch Mountain (Disney) [3,187 theaters] $6.7M Fri, $11.5M Sat, $26M wkd
2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) [3,611] $5.3M Fri, $7.4M Sat, $18M wkd
3. Last House On The Left (Universal) [2,401] $5.5M Fri, $5.3M Sat, $14.2M wkd

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Well thats a shame about Watchmen, I never thought it would be crawling towards $100m. They were hoping it'll be this years 300 and instead it turned out to be this years Beowulf, oh well.

Could be the failure of The Spirit just a few months ago put people off Watchmen, a friend of mine who was a big Sin City fan saw The Spirit and told me it was the worst film he had ever seen.

Maybe the superhero genre has had its day and peaked with Dark Knight, lets see how Wolverine fares in May. One thing for sure all the critical praise the Watchmen comic book had picked up meant diddly squat to the millions of regular moviegoers who saw it as just another silly superhero movie.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I think a nearly 3-hour running time, no major stars and no one knowing the material kept people away. In my "real world" I don't know a single person who has heard of the film.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The number of people who read the comic book and cared about it is a tiny lot. Meanwhile, the # of people you need to attend a film are big. The math doesn't work out. Most people who went to go see "Dark Knight" had probably never read a single Batman comic.. they'd heard the name, they were familiar with the property, and they were drawn in by the idea of fantasy action.

Watchmen for them was a superhero movie without a superhero they really wanted to root for. The audience likes the idea of "cheering on" someone, it's just the herd nature of people. So, the entire concept of the Watchmen would appeal greatly to those who had read the books, and beyond that (?)

That's the problem. $18M this weekend and it will make it's way north of $100, but I think $120 is out of it.. it just can't get there, and it's going to struggle to get over $100. I'm betting for a similar or greater fall next weekend, so there you go.

On the other hand, I'm predicting Wolverine will do solid business, and I will lay odds it does Watchmen + $30M.

Watchmen still had a really high theater count this week; that ends next weekend.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Weekend Estimates

#1 "Race to Witch Mountain" $25.0 million
#2 "Watchmen" $18.1 million ($86.0 million) -67%
#3 "The Last House on the Left" $14.7 million
#4 "Taken" $6.7 million ($126.8 million) -9%
#5 "Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail" $5.1 million ($83.2 million) -40%
#6 "Slumdog Millionaire" $5.0 million ($132.6 million) -26%
#7 "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" $3.1 million ($137.8 million) -25%
#8 "He's Just Not That Into You" $2.9 million ($89.0 million) -28%
#9 "Coraline" $2.7 million ($69.1 million) -19%
#10 "Miss March" $2.4 million
#11 "Confessions of a Shopaholic" $2.0 million ($41.4 million) -35%
#12 "Fired Up" $1.7 million ($15.4 million) -33%

The top 12 pulled in $89.2 million this weekend, marking a 16% dip from last year, as well as a 15% decline from this frame in '07. This marks only the second time this year (11 weeks in) that the top 12 didn't earn more than $100 million (an industry record).

2009's year-to-date gross now stands at a towering $2.089 billion, marking a 12% increase over last year ($1.859 billion), up 20% over '07 ($1.740 billion), 24% stronger than '06 ($1.684 billion), and a 23% improvement over '05 ($1.694 billion).

Disney's "Race to Witch Mountain" easily took the top spot this weekend as it pulled in $25 million. For star Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, the film gave him the third biggest opening mark of his career behind "Get Smart" ($38.7 million) and "The Scorpion King" ($36.1 million). Disney is expecting this one to have a strong showing in the coming weeks based on its 63% Friday-to-Saturday increase in business. Friday ($6.8 mil) was actually the film's weakest day in theaters as families dominated matinee business on Saturday ($11.0 mil) and Sunday ($7.2 mil). The movie's solid average of $7,844 from its 3,187 theaters was the best of the top 12.

WB/Paramount's "Watchmen" took a steep 67% hit in business this weekend as it fell to the #2 slot. The movie has so far tallied $86 million and looks headed for a final tally in the neighborhood of $120 million. While a very solid mark, the studios involved expected this one to earn no less than $150 million domestically. The movie cost north of $150 million to make and market and will need to earn big numbers overseas if WB hopes to see a profit (8.5% of which is going to Fox).

Universal's "The Last House on the Left" had a surprisingly potent debut as it earned just shy of $15 million this weekend. The film pulled in a very solid per-theater average of $6,105 from its 2,401 locations, which was the second best of the top 12.

Fox's "Taken" became the first film since last summer's blockbuster "The Dark Knight" to spend seven weeks in the top five. The action flick was down only 9% this weekend, which was easily the strongest hold of the top 12. With nearly $127 million already in the bank, plans are now underway for a sequel.

Lionsgate's "Madea Goes to Jail" seems to have found its legs as it has now pulled in over $83 million. Fox Searchlight/WB's "Slumdog Millionaire" has now tallied $132.6 million. Sony's "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" is closing in on the $140 million mark. New Line/WB's "He's Just Not That Into You" is close to passing the $90 million plateau. Focus Features' "Coraline" has so far earned just over $69 million.

Fox Searchlight's "Miss March" crashed and burned this weekend as it was only able to tally $2.4 million, earning a paltry average of $1,349 from its 1,742 theaters. Looks for this one to have a very short stay in multiplexes.

Disney's "Confessions of a Shopaholic" ($41.4 million) and Sony's "Fired Up" ($15.4 million) round out the top 12.

Next weekend will see the releases of Summit Entertainment's "Knowing", DreamWorks/Paramount's "I Love You Man", and Universal's "Duplicity". The safe money is only "I Love You Man" topping the heap next week. "Knowing" could surprise (will it be a good Nic Cage movie or a bad Nic Cage movie?), while "Duplicity" marks the first headlining role for Oscar-winner Julia Roberts since 2007's "Charlie Wilson's War" ($66.7 million). 13 of her last 17 movies were big studio hits (six of which topped the century mark) and she's looking to maintain her status as history's biggest female draw at the box office.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Re: Watchmen: The novel was never something that became mainstream, so why would the movie? It was always gonna be an uphill battle to enlarge the audience.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Everyone involved with the making of "Watchmen" banked on Zack Snyder's name recognition, coming off of the massive success of "300", to basically do the "heavy lifting" in terms of marketing the movie. While the movie was able to have a big opening, the problem is that many moviegoers not familiar with the comic thought they were getting a movie more like the 'X-Men' flicks (based on the exit polling).

The film's action and the performance of Jackie Earle Haley were the things that got the highest marks from the exits (deservedly so), while everything else was either deemed average or below-average. The movie was a huge gamble going in and it will pay off, just not nearly as big as "300" did.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Terry-

From my understanding, the budget was $150M, and so far, there has been about $50M in advertising.. how do they ever figure what kind of global number they need? I'm sure with DVD sales, etc. they will come out ahead, but this may be a gamble that takes a while to pay off.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Matt, right now the movie is headed for a final domestic mark in the area of $120 million. Paramount owns the overseas rights (for which they bought for an undisclosed amount) and Fox will be getting an 8.5% cut of WB's domestic end no matter what it makes.

With so many DVD releases set for this one (theatrical, Director's Cut, Ultimate Cut incorporating 'Tales of the Black Freighter', etc.), as well as DVD rentals, WB should be able to ultimately see this one earn its money back. Thanks to their deal with Paramount, WB isn't on the hook for the full $150 million-plus budget. The studio is expecting to make a profit, but it will be a meager one.

The end result of this whole thing, may be WB execs now re-thinking the $100 million-plus budget of Snyder's next movie "Sucker Punch".

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Not even Steven Spielberg can sell a movie based on his name alone (see Amistad, Always, Munich, A.I., etc.). It's quite a longshot fantasy for the studio to think the name Zack Snyder is going to put butts in seats after only one major success.

Common sense seems in very short supply in Hollywood.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

You'd be surprised.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

It's this year's Cloverfield.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

It's opening weekend was also very frontloaded, with Friday picking up a big boost from midnight showings. The percentage drop for the weekend will be bad, but not 78 percent bad.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Don't blame me, I checked out Watchmen on IMAX in its second weekend of release. It was a tougher IMAX ticket last weekend.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Actually the Watchmen seemed to stabilize on Saturday and Sunday, which is a decent sign.

You're talking about an R-rated (a hard R at that), 3 hour character study of superhero mythos set in a highly politicized 1985 with no name actors and not a lot of action.

This isn't Wolverine, a pre-packaged McDonalds cheeseburger of a movie for the masses.

I'm surprised Snyder got away with making it the way he did.

It will probably end up in the $180-$200 mill WW box office take and will more than likely then double that on DVD/Blu-Ray/iTunes/PPV sales. It will earn more than it cost to make (the lawsuit issue you can't really fault the film for, that's out of the filmmaker's hands) in the end.

Not sure if the Wachowski's can say that about Speed Racer or McG can say that about Charlie's Angels 2, but these guys seem to have no problem getting massive projects to work on (WB wants the Brothers to take over Superman, McG gets $200 mill for Terminator Salvation).

The whole "if you have a flop, you'll never work in Hollywood again!" thing is one of the biggest myths out there. It's actually pretty hard to make a movie that loses money with all the revenue streams available to studios today.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Not surprised about Last House On the Left. We saw it opening night friday and it was sold out.

Unreal about Taken's box office hold. Cool. But a sequel? Um...what will they call it? Taken 2....Taken Again?

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

"Take 2"

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

"Retaken" or as I prefer "Retake"

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I'm not sure many casual viewers really took Snyder's name away from that movie. If anyone had their profile raised by 300, it was Gerard Butler and Frank Miller, not Snyder. It's really, really hard for directors to get their names out to audiences in such a way that when a new movie is out, people are saying "Oh, it's the new movie by [director]! Let's see that!" Hard to the point that you can probably count on one hand the number of directors in film history that have pulled it off.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

watchmen is more of a satire... and those theme flew over many people's heads, lulz. part of satire is that u have to laugh at it. most people didn't laugh at the screening i was at over the weekend on IMAX.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The logical sequence to Taken wouldn't be Taken 2 but "Retribution" or something.. about the people who knew the smuggling ring trying to kill him or for him to track them all down for the one girl - her friend - who got killed (or DID SHE? )

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Double Take