2009 at the Box Office

With '08 a few weeks from ending, the industry is beginning to focus on next year's line-up of films. Here's the tentative schedule of '09 releases...

(All dates subject to change.)
JANUARY
2nd
-N/A
9th
-“Bride Wars” (Fox)
-“Gran Torino” (WB) WIDE
-“Not Easily Broken” (Sony)
-“The Reader” (Weinstein Co.) WIDE
-“The Unborn” (Universal)
16th
-"The Brothers Bloom" (Summit Entertainment) WIDE
-"Defiance" (Paramount Vantage) WIDE
-“My Bloody Valentine 3D” (Lionsgate)
-“Paul Blart: Mall Cop” (Sony)
-“Notorious B.I.G.” (Fox Searchlight)
23rd
-“The Dark Knight” (WB) Reissue
-“Hotel for Dogs” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
-“Inkheart” (New Line/WB)
-“Killshot” (Weinstein Co.)
-"Last Chance Harvey" (Overture Films) WIDE
-"Possession" (Yari Film Group)
-“Underworld: Rise of the Lycans” (Sony)
30th
-“Chilled in Miami” (Lionsgate)
-“Taken” (Fox)
-“The Uninvited” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
Expected top grosser for the month: “Inkheart”

FEBRUARY
6th
-“Coraline” (Focus Features)
-“Fanboys” (Weinstein Co.)
-“He’s Just Not That Into You” (New Line/WB)
-“The Pink Panther 2” (Sony)
-“Push” (Summit Entertainment)
13th
-“Confessions of a Shopaholic” (Disney)
-“The International” (Sony)
-“Friday the 13th” (New Line/WB)
20th
-"Fired Up" (Sony)
-“Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail” (Lionsgate)
-“Youth in Revolt” (Weinstein/Dimention)
27th
-"Assassination of a High School President" (Yari Film Group)
-“Jonas Brothers 3D Concert Movie” (Disney)
-“Resurrection” (Sony)
-“Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li” (Fox)
Expected top grosser for the month: “The Pink Panther 2”

MARCH
6th
-“All About Steve” (Fox)
-“Watchmen” (WB)
13th
-"Miss February" (Fox)
-“A Perfect Getaway” (MGM)
-“Race to Witch Mountain” (Disney)
20th
-“Duplicity” (Universal)
-“I Love You Man” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
-“Knowing” (Summit Entertainment)
27th
-“12 Rounds” (Fox)
-“The Accidental Husband” (Yari Film Group)
-“Adventureland” (Miramax)
-“The Janky Promoters” (Weinstein/Dimention)
-“Monsters vs. Aliens” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
Expected top grosser for the month: “Watchmen”

APRIL
3rd
-“Fast & Furious” (Universal)
-“The Ugly Truth” (Sony)
8th (Wednesday)
-“Dragonball Evolution” (Fox)
10th
-“Case 39” (Paramount)
-“Hannah Montana: The Movie” (Disney)
-"Observe and Report" (WB)
17th
-“17 Again” (New Line/WB)
-“Crank 2” (Lionsgate)
-“State of Play” (Universal)
24th
-“Fighting” (Rogue)
-"Obsessed" (Sony)
-“The Soloist” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
-“Vanilla Gorilla” (Freestyle Releasing)
Expected top grosser for the month: “Fast & Furious”

MAY
1st
-“Ghosts of Girlfriends Past” (New Line/WB)
-“X-Men Origins: Wolverine” (Fox)
8th
-“My Life in Ruins” (Fox Searchlight)
-“Next Day Air” (Summit Entertainment)
-“Star Trek” (Paramount)
-“Wild Child” (Universal)
15th
-“Angels & Monsters” (Sony)
-“Bruno” (Universal)
22nd
-“Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian” (Fox)
-“Terminator Salvation” (WB/Sony)
29th
-“Drag Me to Hell” (Universal)
-“Up” (Disney/Pixar)
Expected top grosser for the month: “X-Men Origins: Wolvlerine”

JUNE
5th
-“Land of the Lost” (Universal)
12th
-“The Hangover” (WB)
-“Nowhereland” (Paramount)
-“The Proposal” (Disney)
-“The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3” (Sony)
19th
-"The Haunting in Connecticut" (Lionsgate)
-“The Year One” (Sony)
26th
-“My Sister’s Keeper” (New Line/WB)
-“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
Expected top grosser for the month: “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”

JULY
1st (Wednesday)
-“Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs” (Fox)
-“Public Enemies” (Universal)
3rd
N/A
10th
-“2012” (Sony)
-“I Love You Beth Cooper” (Fox)
17th
-“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” (WB)
24th
-“G-Force” (Disney)
-“Orphan” (WB)
-“Piranha 3D” (Weinstein/Dimention)
31st
-"Bandslam" (Summit Entertainment)
-“Funny People” (Universal)
-“They Came From Upstairs” (Fox)
Expected top grosser for the month: “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”

AUGUST
7th
-“G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra” (Paramount)
-“Julie & Julia” (Sony)
-“Shorts” (WB)
14th
-"Dance Flick (Paramount)
-“District 9” (Sony)
-“Taking Woodstock” (Focus Features)
21st
-“Final Destination: Death Trip 3D” (New Line/WB)
-"The Goods: The Don Ready Story" (Paramount Vantage)
-"Inglorious Bastards" (Weinstein Co.)
28th
-"Mardi Gras" (Sony)
-"Halloween 2" (Dimention)
Expected top grosser for the month: “G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra”

SEPTEMBER
4th
-“Game” (Lionsgate)
-“Pandorum” (Overture)
9th (Wednesday)
-“9” (Focus Features)
11th
-"Daybreakers" (Lionsgate)
-“Whiteout” (WB)
18th
-“Armored” (Sony)
-“Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” (Sony)
-“The Informant” (WB)
-"Jennifer's Body" (Fox)
25th
-“The Crazies” (Overture)
-“Fame” (MGM)
-“Surrogates” (Disney)
Expected top grosser for the month: “The Informant”

OCTOBER
2nd
-“Shutter Island” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
-“Sorority Row” (Summit Entertainment)
-“Toy Story” 3D (Disney)
9th
-"Zombieland" (Sony)
16th
-“Stepfather” (Sony)
-“Where the Wild Things Are” (WB)
23rd
-“Amelia” (Fox Searchlight)
-“Astro Boy” (Summit Entertainment)
-“Saw VI” (Lionsgate)
30th
-N/A
Expected top grosser for the year: “Where the Wild Things Are”

NOVEMBER
6th
-“The Box” (WB)
-“A Christmas Carol” (Disney)
-“The Fantastic Mr. Fox” (Fox)
-“The Wolfman” (Universal)
13th
-“The Tooth Fairy” (Fox)
20th
-"New Moon" (Summit Entertainment)
-“Planet 51” (Sony)
-“Sherlock Holmes” (WB)
-“The Three Stooges” (MGM)
27th
-“Old Dogs” (Disney)
Expected top grosser for the month: “A Christmas Carol”

DECEMBER
4th
-N/A
11th
-“The Lovely Bones” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
18th
-“Avatar” (Fox)
25th
-“Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel” (Fox)
-“The Princess and the Frog” (Disney)
-Untitled Hugh Grant/Sarah Jessica Parker Comedy (Sony)
-Untitled Nancy Meyers (Universal)
Expected top grosser for the month: “Avatar”

Of these upcoming releases, here the ten films that the studios feel will be the year's biggest box office hits...

-"Avatar" (Fox)
-"Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince" (WB)
-"Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs" (Fox)
-"Monsters vs. Aliens" (DreamWorks)
-"Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian" (Fox)
-"Terminator Salvation" (WB/Sony)
-"Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen" (DreamWorks/Paramount)
-"Up" (Pixar/Disney)
-"Watchmen" (WB)
-"X-Men Origins: Wolverine" (Fox)

"2012" (could become director Roland Emmerich's fifth $100 million-plus earner out of his last six movies), "Angels & Demons" (may give Oscar-winner Tom Hanks his 16th $100 million-plus domestic performer, it would be the sixth for Oscar-winning director Ron Howard), "A Christmas Carol" (another CG animated film from Oscar-winner Robert Zemeckis following "The Polar Express" and "Beowulf"), "G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra" (could launch a new franchise), and "Star Trek" (may resurrect the series and become only the second $100 million domestic earner of the 11 film series) are also expected to pull in big numbers next year.

'Harry Potter', 'Transformers', and 'Wolverine' are the three films many speculate will have opening weekend marks north of the $100 million plateau. The producers of 'Transformers' seem very confident that they can eclipse the $158.4 million debut of "The Dark Knight" to claim the record of biggest opening weekend haul in history. 'Half-Blood Prince' looks to earn the biggest debut tally ever for the 'Harry Potter' series, while 'Wolverine' could kick-start a brand new franchise for Fox.

Oscar-winner James Cameron returns to the director's chair to release his first mainstream film in 12 years with the highly anticipated sci-fi flick "Avatar". The film is expected to be one of the most visually stunning achievements in history as Peter Jackson's FX house Weta Digital could be looking at nabbing their fifth Visual FX Oscar out of the last 8 years for their work on the movie. "Avatar" may also end up being the biggest competition for 'Harry Potter' at the worldwide box office. 'Half-Blood Prince' is expected to earn no less than $900 million globally.

As with every year, the studios are looking to have another record year of box office grosses, even if theater admissions fall off from this year. The hope is that ticket sales will either match or (slightly) exceed this year's numbers (currently sitting at 1.264 billion admissions sold).

Regardless of how many tickets the studios sell, '09 should end up being a very solid year of movie-going.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Man, it looks like a weak year for blockbuster event movies. I guess that writer's strike is showing its effects. Harry Potter and Transformers are the only sure bets in my opinion.

We haven't even seen a moving image from Avatar, so I don't have any sense of anticipation at all.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

It does look like a soft year for the most part. But the two week stretch in December for The Lovely Bones and Avatar will ideally make up for any failures before that moment. And Public Enemies will be enough to get me there.

I am sure there are plenty of gems amongst the detritus. Probably be a weak summer. It's like the "nostalgia" kick of 2009.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Wow. Now the move of Star Trek looks far more retarded. It will oppose Wolverine.. so talk about dividing up fanbases; and teens who are geeky.. but not at least able to have a girlfriend will be far more likely to see "Wolverine" then to influence someone to see "Trek"

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Yeah, no kidding...Paramount has put 'Star Trek' squarely in next year's 'Speed Racer' slot: a retro-stylized 60s-vintage reboot with a low-profile cast sandwiched directly between a massively popular superhero origin and another massively popular 80s-era franchise resurrection. Both with huge stars. Plus there's 'Angels & Demons' and a Pixar movie in there. Even if 'Trek' is embraced by fans and critics, odds are high that it's doomed.

PLUS it gets even dumber when when you look at the slate for the remainder of this present month. What the hell were they thinking?

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

If Paramount has a good movie and, most importantly, can somehow market Trek to interest regular people, they'll have a hit regardless of the date. If they can't convince people that this isn't the usual Star Trek movie made for the stereotypical 'nerd' then it'll fail whenever it opens.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Films I'm interested in seeing:

- Watchmen
- Monsters vs. Aliens
- X-Men Origins: Wolverine
- Star Trek
- Terminator Salvation
- Up
- Public Enemies
- Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
- The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3
- The Informant
- Shutter Island
- Where the Wild Things Are
- Fantastic Mr. Fox
- The Wolfman
- Sherlock Holmes
- Avatar

I'm sure they'll be many more that I don't know much about now that I'll end up wanting to see, too. Looks promising.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Expected 2010 releases...
“47 Ronin” (Universal)
"The A-Team" (Fox)
“Alice in Wonderland” (Disney)
"The Book of Eli" (WB)
“Caesar” (Fox) Planet of the Apes prequel/reboot
“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader” (Walden Media/Disney)
“Dark Shadows” (WB)
“The Green Hornet” (Sony)
“Green Lantern” (WB)
"Hairspray 2" (WB)
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part One” (WB)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (DreamWorks)
“Iron Man II” (Marvel/Paramount)
"The Last Airbender" (Paramount)
“Master Mind” (DreamWorks)
“National Treasure 3” (Disney)
“Nottingham” (Universal)
“Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” (Disney)
“Repunzel” (Disney)
“Shrek Goes Fourth” (DreamWorks)
"Smurfs" (Sony)
"Superman: The Man of Steel" (WB) could be moved to 2011
“Thor” (Marvel/Paramount)
“Toy Story 3: 3D” (Disney/Pixar)
“Wanted 2” (WB)
“X-Men Origins: Magneto” (Fox)

Expected 2011 releases...
“The Avengers” (Marvel/Paramount)
“Batman 3” (WB)
“Cars 2” (Pixar/Disney)
“The First Avenger: Captain America” (Marvel/Paramount)
"Green Arrow: Escape from Super Max" (WB)
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part Two” (WB)
“The Hobbit: Part I” (New Line/WB/MGM)
“Hotel Transylvania” (Sony)
"King of the Elves" (Disney)
“Kung Fu Panda II: 3D” (DreamWorks)
“The Lone Ranger” (Disney)
“Moby Dick” (Universal)
“Newt” (Disney)
“Spider-Man 4” (Sony)
“Transformers 3” (DreamWorks/Paramount)
"X-Men: First Class" (Fox)


While both 2010 and 2011 seem to have flashier schedules, the studios are "cautiously optimistic" that '09 can be every bit as big a year (maybe even bigger) than '08 turned out. The studios have very high hopes that 'Harry Potter', 'Transformers', and 'Wolverine' will spearhead a huge summer frame with "Watchmen" and "Monsters vs. Aliens" dominating the first part of the year, while films like "Avatar", "A Christmas Carol", and "The Lovely Bones" carry the holidays. We'll see what happens.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

The US domestic box office is going to struggle a bit in 2009 unless the economy hits a major rebound.

I will definitely see the following movies in theaters:

Star Trek
Up
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Avatar

Any other interesting movies I will see on DVD unless they get massive positive word of mouth.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Wasn't Part one of the final Harry Potter Scheduled to be released in Nov 2009. I thought one of the reasons for the delay of Half Blood Prince was to insure two Potter movies within 1 year
Best
Greg

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Rumors were floating around that Rob Zombie's TYRANNOSAURUS REX (8/28/09) wasn't going to be filmed and according to Fangoria it has been put on the back burner so that Zombie can film HALLOWEEN 2. Apparently it will be released sometime near (duh) Halloween 09.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Part one of 'Deathly Hallows' will be released in November of 2010, with part two hitting theaters in July of 2011.

"Halloween 2" is tentatively set for release on October 30th of '09.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Good work Terry. I'm with Chuck in that the list does look kind of weak except for a few expected Gems.

Of course, 2008 wasn't exactly THE year either.

Man do I still miss the anticipation/excitement of Lord Of the Rings from 2000-2003. That, along with Prequels was a great time for movie discussion and the HTF.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

That time of the year again already, huh?

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I agree Tim, there was an embarrassment of riches during that time. Not only did we have the LOTR and Prequels, there was also the two 'Matrix' sequels, two of the three Spidey movies, the first two X-Men flicks, and the whole 'Harry Potter' craze beginning. There was a whole host of things to discuss during that period of movie-going.

Now we have the new Batman series, more films from the Harry Potter and Spider-Man franchises, "Iron Man II", "The Avengers", 'Captain America', the new 'X-Men Origins' series, the two 'Hobbit' movies, Transformers, Shrek, Jasone Bourne, and Daniel Craig's Bond flicks to talk and debate about. There's also the upcoming "Green Lantern", 'Super Max', the new Superman movie, and a whole host of other franchise potential properties on the horizon.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I think Terminator Salvation is going to be a big hit if the plot is half-way coherent and satisfying. It could give Transformers 2 some real competition for the summer action crown.

The year will hinge probably a lot on Avatar even though it is coming out late in the year. If it's a blockbuster then business will be strong, if it fizzles or is too cerebral (ala Cameron's The Abyss) then movie goers will probably stay at home.

Also I think Paramount has made a mistake in sandwiching Star Trek between Wolverine and Terminator Salvation. A release this winter would've worked better, specifically this very weekend.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Fandango's "hot list" of most anticipated movies of '09. The poll consisted of more than 2,000 participants and here are the results...

Most Anticipated Blockbusters of 2009 - According to Women:
1. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
2. New Moon
3. Transformers: Revenge of The Fallen
4. Angels & Demons
5. X-Men Origins: Wolverine
6. Star Trek
7. Public Enemies
8. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
9. The Lovely Bones
10. Where the Wild Things Are

Most Anticipated Blockbusters of 2009 - According to Men:
1. Star Trek
2. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen
3. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
4. X-Men Origins: Wolverine
5. Terminator Salvation
6. Watchmen
7. Angels & Demons
8. Public Enemies
9. G.I. Joe
10. New Moon

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Must make Paramount happy to see "Star Trek" riding high on those lists. Wasn't it completely absent from the prior most-anticipated films list?

Saw the trailer in front of "Quantum of Solace" a couple days ago. It was met with stony silence from the crowd in the theater.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

That is very encouraging for Trek.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

My son (will turn 8 on March 25th) immediately decided to have a Monsters vs. Aliens birthday party after we saw the trailer a couple of days ago. I'm excited to see it too.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Interesting list, good to see the "Citizen Kane of Comic Book Movies" (as one magazine is already calling it) hasn't been forgotten. I just hope it does get released in 2009.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

When I saw The Day the Earth Stood Still at the digital IMAX here, the early twenty-something girls sitting behind us with their toddlers in two got into a little argument when the Star Trek trailer finished. One watched the original series in reruns and felt it "rocked," while the other had been forced to watch the movies with her father and concluded it was all "lame." Since their demographic is about as far as you can go from the Trek bread-and-butter, I'm starting to reconsider my dismissal of the movie's chances. Something about the original characters taps into the cultural conciousness in a way that TNG movies just don't.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

I will definitely be seeing Gran Torino and Watchmen and I'm also interested in the following:

X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Bruno, Terminator Salvation, Taking Woodstock, 9, The Informant, Shutter Island, Where The Wild Things Are, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Wolfman, Sherlock Holmes, The Lovely Bones and Avatar.

Here are some other films due out next year that might be worth seeing:

A Serious Man (The Coen Brothers)
Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans (Werner Herzog)
The Imaginarium Of Doctor Parnassus (Terry Gilliam)
The Limits Of Control (Jim Jarmusch)

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Other than watching films from my favourite directors (the aforementioned Jarmusch, Coens, Wes Anderson, etc.), there's not a lot to interest me in 2009. I tend to prefer arthouse fare, but with the shuttering of many quasi-indie (studio-owned) labels, financial backing/distribution problems for independent filmmakers, there's not a lot to like. I do like smart popcorn films, but I'm not interested in remakes, sequels and reboots--probably why my Blu-ray/DVD purchases of pre-90s films have skyrocketed in the past year!

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

You're not alone. I feel exactly the same way as you can see from my earlier post.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Agreed - which is why JJ et al and Paramount felt comfortable going the route they have.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

While "Star Trek" is generating a lot of anticipation, 'Wolverine', 'Transformers', and 'Half-Blood Prince' are the three titles that are expected to have the year's biggest openings. All are expected to top the $100 million mark during their respective debut weekends.

DreamWorks and Paramount in particular are said to be "very confident" that their 'Transformers' sequel can challenge the opening weekend record of "The Dark Knight" ($158.4 million). Of course, they'll probably have to quell any thoughts of releasing the movie two days prior (on Wednesday) if they want a real shot at the record.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

They better have one HELL of a trailer.

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

Hey Terry, is it too early to see how My Bloody Valentine 3D is tracking for Lionsgate?

Re: 2009 at the Box Office

With the early tracking data I've seen, "My Bloody Valentine 3D" is actually tracking pretty strong. Still, that weekend is going to be a tough one with both "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" and "Notorious" also set to open. Both are also (so far) registering solid tracking numbers as well. The studios are hoping to duplicate last January's record-setting performance which saw the month earn $841 million (the most for any January), as well as selling nearly 119 million admissions (the best mark since January '04).

'Paul Blart' has been tracking very well due to some solid marketing by Sony. Fox Searchlight is hoping that "Notorious" (the biopic on slain rapper Biggie Smalls) will do big business with the urban demo, while Lionsgate is expecting a very solid run from 'Valentine' with the film's 3D presentation being the "hook". That weekend will also see "Defiance" and "Last Chance Harvey" go into wide release.

Overall, January has a pretty solid schedule and the studios believe that '09 can get off to a great start because of it.