Re: NBA 2008-09 Regular Season Discussion Thread
That was a gutsy win by the Celtics last night. They found themselves trailing by fifteen (65-50) midway through the third quarter, and chopped five points off the halftime deficit (eleven) by the end of the third. And in the fourth, they held Dallas to 17 points -- the second time in as many nights that they've held a home team to that total in the final quarter. Nowitzki was great (37 points); however, he somehow missed seven of eight shots down the stretch. And Rondo had a triple double (19, 15, and 14, I believe).
The Lakers, Celtics, and Cavaliers are heading into the final 26-30 games of the season, each with a chance to win 60 games. I mentioned before that I don't know if this has ever happened before in a single season. I do know that the Celtics and 76ers had identical 62-20 records back in the early 1980s, but I don't believe any other team reached the 60-win plateau that year.
I can't emphasize enough how in today's NBA game the homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs is a huge psychological edge. I believe Boston needs it to have any chance of defeating Los Angeles in the finals (if both happen to get there, which is by no means a foregone conclusion).
My projections for the four best records in the NBA, which are based on games remaining, the opponents each team still has to play, and the number of road games left on their respective schedules, are as follows:
1. Los Angeles Lakers: 69-13
2. Boston Celtics: 67-15
3. Cleveland Cavaliers: 66-16 (This was Boston's league-leading best record last year!)
4. Orlando Magic: 63-19
This has the potential of being precedent-setting. With thirteen losses at present, I cannot see the Magic losing ten more games (59-23) the rest of the way. I also cannot see the Lakers losing more than three games, unless they lock up the best record well before then, rendering the final half dozen or so games moot.
The Lakers have a few toughies left (Charlotte comes to mind), and they have more road games than the other teams. But their recent road trip (6-0) may have shown just how good they are when they step up their game. The Lakers do have three games in four nights after the all-star game, but I don't expect them to lose more than one of those (Atlanta, Golden State, and New Orleans). They get Denver and Phoenix on the road as well, but they should take those. They do get the Trailblazers in Portland on March 9 (and again on April 10), and the Blazers should be geared up for those home games. They also get the Rockets in Houston on the 11th, which IMO is a game Houston must win as a confidence builder; the next night they play at San Antonio, which could be a victory for the Spurs. The Lakers also get the Hawks in Atlanta in late March, but I've got to think that the Lakers will send a strong message in that one. The most interesting game for me will be when the Lakers play Charlotte on March 31. The Bobcats have won six of eight (or is it seven of eight?) from Los Angeles. Very odd. The Rockets travel to Los Angeles on April 3, but I've got to believe that the Lakers will take that one.
The Celtics have some tough games left on this six-game road trip (Utah -- a tough home team, Phoenix, and Denver come to mind). They also have two more games against Cleveland (one in Boston and then in Cleveland), and they have Orlando at home. They also have some 'iffy' road games against the likes of New Jersey (their recent back-to-back wins against the Nets notwithstanding) and the Bulls. They've handled Chicago well this season, but these kinds of games worry me late in the season. The Celtics also get the Spurs in San Antonio. This won't be an easy game, obviously. And we get the Magic one more time in Orlando, as well as the Hawks once more in Atlanta. Both of these games will be wars. The Celtics get the Bobcats the night after Charlotte has played the Lakers. And the Celtics have something to send to the Bobcats for their trash-talking after the 'Cats defeated them in Charlotte in overtime.
Cleveland has some tough games at Houston and then San Antonio in a couple of weeks, and they get Detroit at home. In years past, I would have said that the Detroit game was a gimme for the Pistons, but this year they haven't looked like the formidable team of the past few years. The Cavaliers also have to play the Hawks down in Atlanta, which is a game that the Hawks should win. Cleveland comes to Boston on March 6, and then the Cavaliers have the Heat at home the next night. I think this could be a chance for the Cavaliers to lose a couple of consecutive games, which is something they've only done once this season (the Lakers and Celtics have each done it at least twice thus far).
BTW, I guarantee that Los Angeles will lose on April 5. Any takers? Try me. I'll give you 10,000 to 1 odds on a hundred bucks.
<<< Not LeBron.
