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Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

#1
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10/29/08 at 12:38pm
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Don't know if others here have seen this, but I'm a little confused. What does it all mean? What did Sony do that the author seems to be referring to?


Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony! | Storage Bits | ZDNet.com
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#2
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10/29/08 at 1:18pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Well, it looks like the author is using Sony and the BDA interchangeably, which isn't exactly true, but also doesn't much matter for the purposes of the article: That BD isn't doing very well is the point, not who is responsible.

Basically, it seems to amount to not predicting the future very well - that the economy would sputter, that HD DVD would hang around for almost two years, that upconverting technology would get good enough to be a real threat (and probably underestimating how low that bar would be set) - and then not moving very fast when things didn't work out as planned.

I think it's an interesting article, although it reads more like advocacy than reporting - he not only believes BD will fail, but is emotionally invested in it.
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#3
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10/29/08 at 1:41pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Well, after reading the artical and seeing the reporter use terms like "stop smoking dope" and "put down the crackpipe", I seriously doubt his credibility. Not something you would read from a Peter Jennings or Katie Couric. The thing I take from this is Blu-ray is dead to (him). However, that's not what I'm seeing everywhere I go.

" I think it's time we go to plan B". "What's plan B?" "That's the one where we don't do something stupid".

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#4
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10/29/08 at 1:44pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Seaver
although it reads more like advocacy than reporting
You have such a nice way with understatement, Jason.

It's the techno-geek version of a political pundit. I picture the author as one of those endless series of passionate talking heads on TV right now, only this one just happens to be talking about Blu-ray. He raises some interesting points, and some of them are legitimate, but he's not arguing anything that hasn't been thoroughly hashed out here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Qui-Gon John
What does it all mean?
It means that Robin Harris has an opinion and a column to file.
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#5
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10/29/08 at 2:43pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

I wouldn't worry about Robin Harris too much. He's been pretty anti HD-on-disc for a while. For example take this post from January of this year.

Quote:
Older DVDs like the original Lethal Weapon can have a lot of film grain, but that isn’t the player’s fault. The added size and resolution makes source defects more obvious. Reviews of Blu-ray disks will tell you if the picture quality is compromised by source problems. If it is you’ll be just as happy with the DVD version.

O'no! Not film grain!

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#6
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10/29/08 at 4:19pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Film grain = "source defect"?! I guess that leads to another equation:

Robin Harris = zero credibility + ignore in future
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#7
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10/29/08 at 5:31pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

BD's biggest problems are that the discs are still too expensive and continuing problems with playback on many standalone players that end up requiring constant firmware updates. The BDA needs to address these problems. I for one don't see Blu-ray as being dead but it is damn close to becoming comatose.

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#8
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10/29/08 at 7:07pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

BD may not be penetrating the marketplace like we had all hoped, but to say it's 'dead' is like seeing a bleeding guy on the side of the road and putting a white sheet over his head.

I'm glad this guy isn't a doctor.
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#9
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10/29/08 at 7:39pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

I said months ago it's the new LaserDisc...a niche format. It looks like a million damn dollars...but it's for the ones looking for the format at high end of the food chain.
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#10
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10/29/08 at 7:56pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scooter
I said months ago it's the new LaserDisc...a niche format. It looks like a million damn dollars...but it's for the ones looking for the format at high end of the food chain.
You can look at this many different ways. However, one must remember that Blu-ray is a global market and while it's just finding it's footing here in the States and Canada, it's kickin ass overseas. Just read: Blu-ray Disc sales up 396% year to date in UK - Engadget HD. That same market, if it stays strong in the UK and around the world, will secure it's place here. Even if it takes awhile to catch up to global adoption.

" I think it's time we go to plan B". "What's plan B?" "That's the one where we don't do something stupid".

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#11
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10/29/08 at 7:57pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

I don't think it's anything like LaserDisc. I didn't know too many 'average consumers' who owned laser disc players, but I know of several people (i.e. non-enthusiasts) who owned Blu-ray players before I even did.

When Laserdisc was popular, people were still watching old/tiny TV's and hardly anyone listened to TV through a stereo system, but now, everyone seems to have giant HD TV's and large sound systems. People have HD cable and have had a taste of HighDef programming, so these factors are what's getting more average consumers into BD than you had with LD.

I definitely think the economy and price of players are what's holding people back. But once both of those change, BD will take off like DVD did.


and p.s. Remember LD's being $100+??? I mean, were they really expecting to saturate the maretplace that was happy with the winning cheap-ass VHS??
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#12
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10/29/08 at 8:41pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkHastings
I don't think it's anything like LaserDisc.
Agreed. The context -- financially (Blu-ray is much cheaper than LD), technologically (digital vs. analog), in public awareness (how often did major media companies promo something as "available on VHS and Laserdisc"?) -- is so different that comparing the two is a pointless exercise.

Let's take another approach: Can anyone imagine a plausible scenario under which all of the major studios would open their doors (and wallets) to a group of 50+ enthusiasts for the express purpose of showing them their latest and greatest plans for . . . laserdisc? (Take all the time you need. )
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#13
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10/29/08 at 10:09pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
Let's take another approach: Can anyone imagine a plausible scenario under which all of the major studios would open their doors (and wallets) to a group of 50+ enthusiasts for the express purpose of showing them their latest and greatest plans for . . . laserdisc? (Take all the time you need. )
Perfect!

DVD & Blu-ray - It's all about the movies!
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#14
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10/30/08 at 10:00am
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
Film grain = "source defect"?! I guess that leads to another equation:

Robin Harris = zero credibility + ignore in future

Couldn't be better stated.
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#15
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10/30/08 at 11:51am
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

I just picked up the When We Left Earth BD (for $20) from the street vendor nearby (in downtown Manhattan), and I can tell you there are more hardworking, average folks checking out BDs (at $15 and $20 each) than guys in suits and such. And did we ever have street vendors selling LDs back in the day???

Just give it some time. BD may never completely replace DVD in the mainstream -- VOD/downloads will probably do that at the lower end -- but it's far from "dead". LD-like niche is only the (rather pessimistic) potential downside result of BD at this point -- and BD would actually have to go backwards for that.

_Man_

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#16
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10/30/08 at 4:50pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by troy evans
You can look at this many different ways. However, one must remember that Blu-ray is a global market and while it's just finding it's footing here in the States and Canada, it's kickin ass overseas. Just read: Blu-ray Disc sales up 396% year to date in UK - Engadget HD. That same market, if it stays strong in the UK and around the world, will secure it's place here. Even if it takes awhile to catch up to global adoption.
I remember reading this article. It made a big issue of Blu sales being up nearly 400% with sales of 1.5 millions discs. DVD sales during the same period were 168.9 million units with only an increase of 6%. Make what you will of these numbers.
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#17
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10/31/08 at 6:11am
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

I read this response on another forum (I'm going by memory here so it's not an exact quote)....

'If it were Robert Harris who said this, I'd be a little concerned. Robin Harris, not so much.'

I pretty much agree with that quote.
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#18
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10/31/08 at 7:06am
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
Agreed. The context -- financially (Blu-ray is much cheaper than LD), technologically (digital vs. analog), in public awareness (how often did major media companies promo something as "available on VHS and Laserdisc"?) -- is so different that comparing the two is a pointless exercise.
Agreed, the only similarity (and the one that counts for me the most) is Blu's much higher software prices in context with other available media sources which explains why buying Blu discs is low on my totem pole - as was buying LDs.
Quote:
Let's take another approach: Can anyone imagine a plausible scenario under which all of the major studios would open their doors (and wallets) to a group of 50+ enthusiasts for the express purpose of showing them their latest and greatest plans for . . . laserdisc? (Take all the time you need. )
Yeah, but isn't this just smart internet PR on the studio's part??? Lets face it, at this point they can use ALL the good PR they can possibly generate.
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#19
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10/31/08 at 7:17am
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by frankie108
but isn't this just smart internet PR on the studio's part???
Of course it is. Who said otherwise? I was simply illustrating how the comparison between Blu-ray and LD isn't meaningful.
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#20
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10/31/08 at 11:39am
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Now someone has declared Blu-ray one of the top tech flops:

9 top tech flops - T-Mobile G1 (1) - FORTUNE
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#21
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10/31/08 at 12:06pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveA
Now someone has declared Blu-ray one of the top tech flops:

9 top tech flops - T-Mobile G1 (1) - FORTUNE
You know, nuance is so often ignored these days, and it's genuinely important. The flops in question are specific products that are expected not to sell this holiday season. The specific product in question is the Sony Blu-ray player (model number unspecificied). At the beginning of the list, the authors note that one of the main reasons may be "consumer stinginess", thus echoing a concern that has been noted here for many months.

Here are the specific comments on the Sony player:
Quote:
Sony Blu-ray DVD player
Price: $399

Unlike the Beta vs. VHS video format battle two decades ago, Sony won this war over the next generation of DVDs. But the victory over Toshiba's HD-DVD standard didn't help move Sony's pricey DVD players off store shelves. "The format war was a good excuse [for consumers] to put off [their next DVD] purchase," said Majestic Research analyst Richard Klugman. "Now people are asking: 'Is it worth it?'"
The headline is misleading -- probably by design. Come January/February, if there are a bunch of new high-profile titles and player prices drop, things could look different.
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#22
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10/31/08 at 12:59pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Reuben
I was simply illustrating how the comparison between Blu-ray and LD isn't meaningful.
I don't know that it isn't, though. It's not a perfect comparison, but just because Blu-ray is catering to a larger group than Laserdisc doesn't mean it's not fulfilling the same role - the higher quality and more expensive alternative to the mainstream format, rather than the next mainstream format. It's probably too popular to be called a niche product, but that may just make it a more successful LD rather than the next DVD.

That doesn't make it a flop or a failure, and I think it's a year or so too early to write it off, but I don't think it's hard to see a scenario where BD gives way to streaming video and read-only SD memory as the next-generation video delivery system of choice.
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#23
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10/31/08 at 1:06pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Seaver
the higher quality and more expensive alternative to the mainstream format, rather than the next mainstream format
IMO, that characterization doesn't apply to LD. It's a description imposed after-the-fact, rather than one that applied when the format was new.

When you can answer my original question (the one in post #22), we'll talk.
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#24
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10/31/08 at 1:22pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

I looked at the list of the 9 "flops". Almost all of them (including "The Sony Blu-Ray player"--which one?) are complaints about price, in the end. But I've seen BD players at 199$ in Canada. And "the Sony player" that appears to be in the picture is at 279$ last week locally. So the article is a bit out of date and overly vague.

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#25
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10/31/08 at 1:32pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by frankie108
Yeah, but isn't this just smart internet PR on the studio's part??? Lets face it, at this point they can use ALL the good PR they can possibly generate.

True that, but that's one very important diff from LD though, no? They never did a whole lot to promote LD and weren't even all that actively involved in producing them. It just wasn't their business for the most part for most of LD's life cycle, but that of 3rd party producers (like Pioneer, Image, Criterion, et al) if I understand correctly.

How well BD does going forward will definitely depend a whole lot on how committed the studios are to its success (much like it was w/ DVD). BD may never reach the same overall success level as DVD, but it already isn't really comparable to LD on many levels. I believe Michael is pointing out that you cannot intelligently predict where BD is headed based on LD history because of that -- there are just too many differences involved.

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#26
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10/31/08 at 1:40pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

While I can understand why one might see a comparison between BD to LD, I think it's WAY too early to even begin to compare the two. For one, LD had something like a 20 year run and maintained itself as a niche product. BD is brand new (if you don't count the format war years). I see consumers already moving into BD, which seems to be a lot faster than they did with DVD.

I wonder if LD would have caught on more if the internet were around (like it is today)? I know that the internet has helped me get into technologies that I would never have gotten into.

The reason has to do with being around enthusiasts. I never cared about letterboxed VHS until an enthusiast pointed it out to me. My eyes were WIDE open after that. I never knew anyone who owned an LD player, nor did I speak to anyone who could explain why it was better than VHS. I bet if I did know someone like that, that I would have purchased one.

I feel that there are enough consumers getting into BD that it will encourage others to buy into it. I already hear more talk (from the average person) about BD then I ever heard about LD.

The average consumer never cared as much about TV as they do today. That alone will fuel BD sales (once the economy gets better).

So while I don't think BD is starting out strong, I also don't think that's any indication of where it's headed.
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#27
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10/31/08 at 1:44pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulDA
I looked at the list of the 9 "flops". Almost all of them (including "The Sony Blu-Ray player"--which one?) are complaints about price, in the end. But I've seen BD players at 199$ in Canada. And "the Sony player" that appears to be in the picture is at 279$ last week locally. So the article is a bit out of date and overly vague.

You know. That reminds me of a recent article I read about the fallacy of (relatively simplistic) "technical analysis" in the stock market. "The stock or market is going up, so it's time to buy. The stock or market is going down, so it's time to sell." Nvm that market conditions and such can change (in part because of the current trend) to make the prediction (that leads one to buy or sell) invalid.

The hardware makers and studios are not just gonna stand by and do nothing about pricing among other things, if they are indeed committed to success and see that changes are needed.

OTOH, I suppose all the hoopla that BD is "dead" or will be a "flop" is all just part of the whole process that eventually steers BD towards whatever actual success it'll attain. A bit annoying, but perhaps a necessary "evil".

_Man_

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#28
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10/31/08 at 1:49pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

A lot of people keep bringing up that BD will not be as big as DVD. To tell, the truth I don't expect it to be. The success of DVD is somewhat of an anomaly. A lot of people seem to forget that DVD initially got a big boost toward adoption because of the dot com boom. It was a brand new format but the discs were being heavily discounted right from the outset. Dot com retailers were using them as loss-leaders to attract business. There was no similar set of events when BD came out. The discs are expensive, so the adoption rate is much slower. There were other important factors that drove the adoption of DVD, but heavy price discounting was one of the biggest factors.

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#29
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10/31/08 at 2:30pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Why don't all these articles that decry the "flopping" of BD, decry the flopping of HD TV adoption while they are at it?

BD is doing fine.

But it can't replace one format until there is a larger adoption of HDTVs in the marketplace.

All those millions of homes without an HD or digital TV, can't even be a potential BD customer. This format change is going to take time, and most people just aren't patient enough any more.
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10/31/08 at 4:37pm
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Re: Blu-Ray Article on ZD-Net

Quote:
Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong

How well BD does going forward will definitely depend a whole lot on how committed the studios are to its success (much like it was w/ DVD). BD may never reach the same overall success level as DVD, but it already isn't really comparable to LD on many levels. I believe Michael is pointing out that you cannot intelligently predict where BD is headed based on LD history because of that -- there are just too many differences involved.
_Man_
Of course the "particulars" are somewhat always different but the end result is the same. Boiled down and reduced to its most simplistic terms, Blu is simply "high end" just like LD was. If you want the very best, you have to pay the higher price and most people are not willing to do that.
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