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I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

#31
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6/3/08 at 9:56am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Will_B
Yeah that's true, but lately good BluRay titles have been between $15 to $20 on Amazon. I mean stuff like Underworld, Resident Evil Extinction, Gattaca -- not obscure stuff. I'm buying plenty of BluRay discs recently, even though there is simply no BluRay player available to play them on. And I have friends who are in the same situation - they're ready to buy There's just no hardware available.

Will. Where do you live? Resident Evil - Extinction is currently $26.95 on Amazon, and it's debatable how good of a movie it is. New releases are still at or above the $30.00 mark. I'm currently looking for used BD's as I just refuse to pay these prices. The studios seem to want mass buy-in before they will lower the price, but that is not the way it usually works. Lower the price first, and then you'll have your mass buy-in.

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#32
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6/3/08 at 10:02am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

I consider myself an early adopter (first on the block with a laserdisc player, DVD player and Tivo...), but honestly, I'm not jumping so fast on this bandwagon. Prices for both hardware and software must come down, plus - and this is my opinion only so no flames, please - the PQ difference between a well upscaled SD-DVD and BD isn't that eye popping to me on my 52" Sony HDTV (1080p). Plus I'm starting to wonder what factor downloading will play in the near future, with cable companies, Tivo, Netflix and others starting to offer it. Sure, the picture quality isn't so great right now, but when they are able to offer movies in pristine HD, it could be a deterrent to the growth of BD.
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#33
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6/3/08 at 10:18am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Dirk
New releases are still at or above the $30.00 mark.

This is not true. Even the new Fox-titles are "under 30" ($27.95 in Amazon, but still).

We really go back-and-worth with these prices. Some keep quoting these "retail prices" (Fox-titles for 40$!) and some quote the prices that they actually pay. Some are probably in the middle, "throwing" some figures in the air...

Just picked up e.g. upcoming "Cloverfield" for $19.95 and new "Rambo" for $22.95. "Rambo 1-3" box set is $34.95..

To me, "Blu-ray is expensive" is starting to be a "myth" almost (not counting some Fox/MGM, Paramount etc titles, though).

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#34
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6/3/08 at 10:52am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jari K
This is not true. Even the new Fox-titles are "under 30" ($27.95 in Amazon, but still).

We really go back-and-worth with these prices. Some keep quoting these "retail prices" (Fox-titles for 40$!) and some quote the prices that they actually pay. Some are probably in the middle, "throwing" some figures in the air..
And how quickly some people forget that these are roughly the same prices as many DVDs were in 1999, and that was without factoring in inflation. On top of that, if you're going to quote MSRPs instead of the price at the register, then you have to compare it to DVD, which still puts MSRP at only $5-$10 less than the Blu-ray, but in an increasing number of cases is the same cost as the DVD.
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#35
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6/3/08 at 10:58am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
I remember buying an $80 Apex dvd player at Walmart for my sister in 1999. So a DVD player was available for a much lower cost than the current lowest cost blu-ray player at about the same life cycle. Very shortly after the introduction of the Apex player, brands like Sony and Samsung started marketing sub $100 players.

I don't personally remember exactly when those <$100 Apex players started showing up, but if it was 1999, it must've been *late* 1999 since I'm quite certain there was nothing remotely close to the $100 barrier w/in one year after I bought my Toshiba SD2008(?) for $300 in the Fall of 1998. Anyway, I did a quick google on it and found that the first Apex player didn't show up until 2000, and it retailed at ~$180, not <$100, which was still ~$100 less than every other player though:

Apex Digital, Inc. -- Company History

Based on the info at that link, it sounds like the Apex players probably did not break the $100 barrier until 2001 (or maybe late 2000). So that would be roughly 4 years after the DVD launch -- and much closer to what I remember about pricing trends of that time.

Currently, BD is roughly 2 years old, and we are expecting to see some Chinese BD players hit the market real soon for <=$300 -- and that new Magnovox at Walmart is rumored to be a rebadged Chinese player. If a Chinese BD player shows up at ~$200 w/in the next 6-12 months, it would follow the same trend as the first Apex DVD player back in 2000. Of course, we adjust for inflation, I guess a ~$250 player would be close enough me thinks. Even if BD player pricing doesn't quite follow the old DVD trend, it probably won't be nearly as far off as some are suggesting *unless* the industry decides that they would rather not grow the market so quickly at the expense of profit margins, which can certainly happen...

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#36
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6/3/08 at 11:11am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jari K
This is not true. Even the new Fox-titles are "under 30" ($27.95 in Amazon, but still).

We really go back-and-worth with these prices. Some keep quoting these "retail prices" (Fox-titles for 40$!) and some quote the prices that they actually pay. Some are probably in the middle, "throwing" some figures in the air...

Just picked up e.g. upcoming "Cloverfield" for $19.95 and new "Rambo" for $22.95. "Rambo 1-3" box set is $34.95..

To me, "Blu-ray is expensive" is starting to be a "myth" almost (not counting some Fox/MGM, Paramount etc titles, though).

People keep using Amazon's pricing to support an argument that prices of new releases on BD are generally sub-30 dollars. Problem is, most people still buy their discs at B&M stores, not on-line. Where I live, new release titles are generally selling for more than 30 dollars and so are a lot of catalog titles. There are exceptions, but the price of BD (at least where I live) is 30 dollars or more.

The rate of adoption of BD is going to be negatively affected until someone finally figures out that prices in B&M stores have to be lower. SD DVD prices are quite cheap and yet sales are slowing down. What makes studios and CE retailers think that consumers are going to be willing to pay high retail prices for BD in B&M stores which make up the lion's share of their sales?

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#37
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6/3/08 at 11:15am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jari K
This is not true. Even the new Fox-titles are "under 30" ($27.95 in Amazon, but still).

You're right, I should have said "near the $30.00 mark."



Quote:
To me, "Blu-ray is expensive" is starting to be a "myth" almost (not counting some Fox/MGM, Paramount etc titles, though).

I don't understand where you're going with statements like this. Are you saying that you don't think the prices need to be any lower to spur higher volume sales?

I'm admittedly new to Blu Ray. I just bought my player abount a week ago. I've been on a few shopping excursions looking for a good reference quality title to buy. In most cases my observation was if it was a contemporary film with a lossless audio track, the price was over $30.00. I don't ever remember SD media being that expensive.

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#38
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6/3/08 at 11:23am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
most people still buy their discs at B&M stores, not on-line.

I would like some proof of this. I do not think it is true. If it is true, then it is proof people are willing to pay $30 for the movies.

If more discs are being sold at $30 at a B&M than $25 online then why on earth would the studios lower the price?

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#39
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6/3/08 at 11:45am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott-S
I would like some proof of this. I do not think it is true. If it is true, then it is proof people are willing to pay $30 for the movies.

If more discs are being sold at $30 at a B&M than $25 online then why on earth would the studios lower the price?

I never said any such thing. In fact, I was saying just the opposite. 30+ dollar BD discs in B&M stores is going to have the effect of dampening sales. People are not going to be willing to pay 30+ dollars so sales growth will stagnate.

IMO, SD and BD discs are largely impulse buys. The biggest portion of sales are spur of the moment when a person, walking by or looking at the racks, suddenly spots a film that they would like to own. If the price is reasonable (say 20 or under) then a buyer is likely to pick it up on the spot. If the price is high (say 30 or over) then a buyer is more likely to say no way and not buy it.

The buyer could go on-line and get it cheaper, but it is an impulse buy so a potential customer is not going to bother going on-line to price compare. They just aren't going to buy it.

Realize, I'm talking about average people here, not home theater enthusiasts or film buffs.

BD adoption is going to affected until B&M retail store prices on software come down.

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#40
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6/3/08 at 11:48am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Hey, the point is that the average person buys their movies at Wally-Mundo, Busted Buy, Circus City, or Tar-jeaux for $10-$20 each. That is the parameters of the vast majority of folks, the mass market, is willing to pay for video discs.

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#41
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6/3/08 at 12:04pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott-S
I would like some proof of this. I do not think it is true. If it is true, then it is proof people are willing to pay $30 for the movies.

If more discs are being sold at $30 at a B&M than $25 online then why on earth would the studios lower the price?
The proof is that Walmart garners over 60% of the total dvd sales and has been doing so for years.
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#42
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6/3/08 at 12:07pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rachael B
Hey, the point is that the average person buys their movies at Wally-Mundo, Busted Buy, Circus City, or Tar-jeaux for $10-$20 each. That is the parameters of the vast majority of folks, the mass market, is willing to pay for video discs.
I've heard studio executives state that Wally is King and has more say what happens in the video software marketplace than any of the next three retailers combined.
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#43
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6/3/08 at 12:10pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Ulmer
And it's also not realistic for hardware manufacturers to expect consumers to pay a huge premium for BD players if they are looking for expanded adoption. In my experience the discs (in general) last a lot longer than players, and looking at the >$2000 pile of dead DVD players I have, I'm in no hurry to start adding BD players to the mix. It will take $50 players for the format to go mainstream, but $150 will be the level where adoption will look more attractive to the middle market.

Although it is improving, I still don't see enough content that is compelling me to buy into BR yet. The majority of those budget discs are titles I already have on DVD (and won't be replacing) or ones I simply have no interest in.
I've had a number of discs either be bad out of the box (new) or suffer some scratches (the few times I've let others handle my discs) but I have DVD players dating back to 2001 and CD players dating back to 1985 (4 SD DVD players, 2 HD DVD players, 3 CD players, 5 DVD PC drives, 2 CD PC drives) and NONE of them have failed to perform properly, some after two decades of use. So my "experience" is opposite of yours. I did have one VHS VCR die on me--after 16 years of use. Suffice it to say, I'm NOT concerned about players dying "willy-nilly". And my point still stands. BD player prices will go down, but to expect them to be drastically lower than they are NOW is unrealistic. Factor in inflation and there are already cheaper options for BD than there were for SD DVD at an equivalent time in the product cycle.

As for media, if people don't remember paying 30$ a disc for SD DVDs, they weren't buying them in the late 90s.

Prices may well be a deterrent to adoption today (as they were for SD DVD early on) but if that's the case, then people will simply have to either adjust their spending on other things if they want BD RIGHT NOW or do what they do when other things they want are too expensive--WAIT. Drumming up unrealistic expectations of low prices RIGHT NOW does nothing but raise the general level of frustration. There seems to be a sense that if something is not "affordable to the masses", then there is something "evil" about the situation. Sometimes things are expensive and one simply needs to wait until either A) one can afford it because one's economic circumstances have improved or B) one can afford it because the price has come down over time. It may be annoying to be in situation B but there is no "right" to "afford" something new just because one wishes it were so.

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#44
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6/3/08 at 12:33pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulDA
As for media, if people don't remember paying 30$ a disc for SD DVDs, they weren't buying them in the late 90s.

I was definitely buying DVD's in the late 90's, but I can't say I remember what they cost. I can only say I doubt I would have ever paid that much for them.

As others have pointed out, the advantages of BD vs SD are not as apparent [or as significant] to the average person as was the advantages of DVD vs VHS. In my view, this alters the price equation significantly. People won't pay the same price for an improvement on an existing technology as they might for a new groundbreaking technology such as DVD was at its inception.

Just my opinion.

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#45
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6/3/08 at 1:05pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

But those same people don't even have a HD tv, so they are moot.

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#46
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6/3/08 at 2:48pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Crawford
The proof is that Walmart garners over 60% of the total dvd sales and has been doing so for years.

Actually as of OCT. 5 2007, Best Buy has emerged by far as the highest retailer of all hi-definition media, relegating Amazon and even Walmart to second at best and by quite a wide margin as reported by Video Business here:

hmm, can't seem to post links so here's a quote:

Quote:
Best Buy named leading high-def retailer - 10/5/2007 - Video Business

Best Buy has emerged as the leading retailer of Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD titles by a wide margin, easily topping DVD-dominant Wal-Mart, according to the NPD Group.

Wal-Mart carries a third-place share of the high-definition software market, followed by Circuit City and Target. Amazon.com sits in second.

Of course this was last year just before Christmas so this may have changed, but I doubt by very much.
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#47
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6/3/08 at 3:37pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott-S
But those same people don't even have a HD tv, so they are moot.

I respectfully disagree. Many, if not most, probably do. It's hard to buy a quality flat screen TV [which is what everyone wants these days] that does not support HD resolutions.

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#48
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6/3/08 at 4:06pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

If Best Buy is the "leader" in HD sales, then that sort of means that the prices of movies are not coming down very soon. Best Buy's Blu-Ray prices are way too high. Why do people spend $10 more per title?????????

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#49
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6/3/08 at 4:23pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Speaking for myself, if most people are like me they still prefer to shop in store with a product in hand. If you're collector, there's not only the instant gratification having it right there with no waiting, but getting one in 'mint condition,' no floaters, etc.

Also, while I do shop on-line now, I did so reluctantly before (many people are still afraid of credit card/identity theft, etc) and only for items I either can't get in store, or if the saving are just that significant. For one or two discs it's just not worth the trouble.
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#50
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6/3/08 at 5:11pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

There is one big thing that I consistently see HD/Bd enthusiasts either fail to acknowledge or fail to realize, that is going to retard Bd adoption amongst the masses-16:9 enhancement.
For years we enthusiasts have been making a stink about studios failing to release certain discs without 16:9 enhancement-or browbeating the non enthusiasts we knew (who didn't have an HD display at the time) to boycott non 16:9 releases. We told these people "look, you may not appreciate the difference now, but when you finally get a new TV and it's widescreen and HD, you will defintely notice the difference and understand our militancy on this matter".
Now we are turing around and telling these same people with shiny new HDTVs "forgot DVD, you can't really appreciate that new set without dropping an extra $300-$500 on a new kind of player and $5-$10 more on every disc."
If I were them, I would tell us all to take a hike too. The fact is, they are finally getting and enjoying the benefit of 16:9 DVDs. For most people that improvment will be more than adequete for some time.
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#51
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6/3/08 at 5:25pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

RE: shopping online vs B&M for the average folks, well, I suspect this is changing more and more each year, especially for those folks who'd have any interest at all in a new video format at a reasonable price, instead of only buying DVDs at the bargain bin and such. Obviously, online shopping probably will never completely replace B&M shops, *but* I don't think people will be all that reluctant to migrate to online shopping for small, fairly durable items like movie media (often w/ free shipping), if they will do any online shopping at all. Afterall, isn't that largely why Netflix was a big success and has forced Blockbuster to follow suit?

And isn't that also partly why states like NY are starting to force the issue w/ trying to get sales tax collected, eg. Amazon just started collecting sales tax from NY state customers (though they along w/ Overstock.com are trying to sue NY state over the new law)?

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#52
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6/3/08 at 9:15pm
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

It will be interesting to see how BD acceptance is affected by the economy going into the pooper. It has been noted that a bad economy influences people to seek entertainment at home, but if they already have SD DVD, will they be willing to spend more for HD, or do they just care about sports in HD? With gas at $4/gallon and my electric company seeking a 23% rate increase, I'm beginning to think twice about a BR when the SD is available at about half the price (new titles with super first-week deals on SD and the usual no special deal on BR).
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#53
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6/4/08 at 12:44am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping point...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott-S
If Best Buy is the "leader" in HD sales, then that sort of means that the prices of movies are not coming down very soon. Best Buy's Blu-Ray prices are way too high. Why do people spend $10 more per title?????????
When Walmart becomes the leader in HD/BR sales then that means Blu-ray has become mass market. I agree with you that BR software needs to come down before BR becomes mass market. The less than $300 BR player with a $100 gift card that Walmart is currently offering helps, but the software pricing needs to be addressed by the studios.






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#54
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6/4/08 at 5:27am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Dirk
I don't understand where you're going with statements like this. Are you saying that you don't think the prices need to be any lower to spur higher volume sales?

No, that is not what I meant. Blu-ray obviously needs to lower ALL prices in some degree (both software and hardware) and that magical MSRP should be lower from that start. We all agree on that one, I´m sure.

I´m mainly talking about that "middle ground" when we quote these prices, since it´s not that all titles cost "almost 30$". This "Blu-ray-titles cost 30-40$" is something that (some) people constantly say, even when there are *many* places that sell them more cheaply. Do you want to use those "chaper places"? It´s up to you, IMO.

I have over 100 Blu-ray-titles (haven´t count them lately, though) and I can´t say that I have paid 30$ or more in any of them - not counting some box sets of course. So if the person living in Europe can get these (US) Blu-ray-titles "under 30$", I´m sure that the people living in the US can also? Of course, I read the various sites/forums in daily basis and hardly ever miss any "good sales" - so that´s one reason why I have e.g. most of these older Fox/MGM-titles, since I got them from these various sales... And when these Xmas sales arrive (in e.g. Amazon), I probably order like 20-25 titles at the "same time".. This is how a operate.

Sure, I do understand the point that Edwin was making (not all people use Amazon etc), but quite honestly perhaps they should start using them? Anyone paying "35-40$" of one Blu-ray-title hasn´t done all the homework.. Partly they can also "blame themselves" if they do that (pay 35-40$ of one BD-title).

I guess my point also was, that people quote these prices so differently, that it´s hard to keep up.. Some "newcomers" might actually thing, that all Blu-ray-titles cost 30-40$.. That´s certainly not true.

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#55
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6/4/08 at 7:05am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong
I don't personally remember exactly when those <$100 Apex players started showing up, but if it was 1999, it must've been *late* 1999 since I'm quite certain there was nothing remotely close to the $100 barrier w/in one year after I bought my Toshiba SD2008(?) for $300 in the Fall of 1998. Anyway, I did a quick google on it and found that the first Apex player didn't show up until 2000, and it retailed at ~$180, not <$100, which was still ~$100 less than every other player though:

Apex Digital, Inc. -- Company History

Based on the info at that link, it sounds like the Apex players probably did not break the $100 barrier until 2001 (or maybe late 2000). So that would be roughly 4 years after the DVD launch -- and much closer to what I remember about pricing trends of that time.

Currently, BD is roughly 2 years old, and we are expecting to see some Chinese BD players hit the market real soon for <=$300 -- and that new Magnovox at Walmart is rumored to be a rebadged Chinese player. If a Chinese BD player shows up at ~$200 w/in the next 6-12 months, it would follow the same trend as the first Apex DVD player back in 2000. Of course, we adjust for inflation, I guess a ~$250 player would be close enough me thinks. Even if BD player pricing doesn't quite follow the old DVD trend, it probably won't be nearly as far off as some are suggesting *unless* the industry decides that they would rather not grow the market so quickly at the expense of profit margins, which can certainly happen...

_Man_


I don't know what the MSRP for the Apex players was. What I do know is that Walmart had them for $80 in 1999 and I bought one.

Doug
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#56
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6/4/08 at 7:11am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jesse Blacklow
And how quickly some people forget that these are roughly the same prices as many DVDs were in 1999, and that was without factoring in inflation. On top of that, if you're going to quote MSRPs instead of the price at the register, then you have to compare it to DVD, which still puts MSRP at only $5-$10 less than the Blu-ray, but in an increasing number of cases is the same cost as the DVD.

I'm not comparing what I paid for DVDs. I'm comparing what I was paying for blu-ray discs a year ago. At that time almost everything I was buying was priced between $19.95 and $24. Now I'm hard pressed to find a new release that is $19.95. Most everything is $25 and above. Yes I know that the MSRP hasn't changed...but frankly the MSRP is irrelevant, I'm talking about my actual out of pocket cost.

Doug
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6/4/08 at 7:17am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulDA

As for media, if people don't remember paying 30$ a disc for SD DVDs, they weren't buying them in the late 90s.

I started buying DVDs in 97 and NEVER paid $30 for one. At that point that DVDs came out I wasn't even paying $30 for Laserdiscs anymore.

Doug
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6/4/08 at 7:19am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by John Dirk
I respectfully disagree. Many, if not most, probably do. It's hard to buy a quality flat screen TV [which is what everyone wants these days] that does not support HD resolutions.

John

I read in March that HDTVs are in about 40% of American homes.

Doug
"I'm in great shape, for the shape I'm in."
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6/4/08 at 7:21am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Douglas Monce
I don't know what the MSRP for the Apex players was. What I do know is that Walmart had them for $80 in 1999 and I bought one.
If you did, it must have been from a promotion or open-box and at the very end of the year. Even at the end of December 1999, retailers were pegging the lowest DVD prices at $199, and the average price was above $250. Even Netflix says average pricing was well over $200-$300 in 1999:

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6/4/08 at 7:21am
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Re: I don't care what the mass media is saying, we are closing in on the tipping poin

Quote:
Originally Posted by Waylander
Actually as of OCT. 5 2007, Best Buy has emerged by far as the highest retailer of all hi-definition media, relegating Amazon and even Walmart to second at best and by quite a wide margin as reported by Video Business here:

hmm, can't seem to post links so here's a quote:



Of course this was last year just before Christmas so this may have changed, but I doubt by very much.

I believe he was talking about movie sales in general, not HD.

Doug
"I'm in great shape, for the shape I'm in."
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