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Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

#1
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1/6/08 at 10:39pm
  • Joined: October 2003
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I wonder. Toshiba is an enormous company, with their hand into so many things I would definitely believe that they have resources that Sony doesn't enjoy, and Microsoft has deeper pockets than probably anybody in this game. I would wonder if Sony has strung themselves out so much, could something happen that we don't know about yet? So what if Universal and Paramount stay exclusive. What if Microsoft swoops in and tries to save the day? Maybe all their cards are played. But things rarely go smoothly for Sony. Could Warner being extending their HD DVD production to give themselves the opportunity to change their minds?

I'm probably insane. The next few weeks aren't going to be good for HD DVD unless Toshiba does something big, as people will be unloading their players and software.

But I wouldn't count anything Microsoft is involved with completely dead yet.
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#2
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1/6/08 at 11:02pm
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Quote:
Originally Posted by JeremyR
I wonder. Toshiba is an enormous company, with their hand into so many things I would definitely believe that they have resources that Sony doesn't enjoy, and Microsoft has deeper pockets than probably anybody in this game. I would wonder if Sony has strung themselves out so much, could something happen that we don't know about yet? So what if Universal and Paramount stay exclusive. What if Microsoft swoops in and tries to save the day? Maybe all their cards are played. But things rarely go smoothly for Sony. Could Warner being extending their HD DVD production to give themselves the opportunity to change their minds?

I'm probably insane. The next few weeks aren't going to be good for HD DVD unless Toshiba does something big, as people will be unloading their players and software.

But I wouldn't count anything Microsoft is involved with completely dead yet.

Actually Sony is a bigger company that Toshiba and Microsoft. Of course combined they are bigger, but I'm not sure how much actual cash Microsoft was putting into HD DVD.

Microsoft - Revenue $51.12 billion US

Toshiba - Revenue $63.7 Billion US

Sony - Revenue $70.303 billion US

Doug
"I'm in great shape, for the shape I'm in."
Bob Hope in The Ghostbreakers
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#3
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1/6/08 at 11:09pm
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Boy, I am surprised to see so many threads due to Warners announcement, I see threads merging soon!

One area that I don't think I've seen discussion about is what the markets are like in other countries. The US is not the center of the Universe. This may be a naive view, but back in the last decades laserdiscs were huge in Japan while it stayed niche in the US. So it could be too soon to call HD-DVD dead. I've no clue of what the next few months will shake out from the Warner's stance. HD-DVD's may stay around in other countries. It seems though anything is possible.
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#4
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1/7/08 at 12:02am
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Hi all,

Glad to see someone care about what is happening in other countries

I am from South Africa (I know it's a minuscule market) and the situation has been and still is as follows...

In South Africa there is NO "format war". From day one there has been no availability of HD DVD software or hardware in this country even though the XBOX 360 was launched 6 months prior to the PS3 (and the PS3 had a less than succesfull launch). Apparently we will get the Toshiba players in Feb and the Xbox add-on in March.

On the other hand Blu-Ray has been available everywhere in large volumes since the laucnh of the PS3. We can now even get the Samsung BDP-1400 player at our version of Wallmart as an alternative to the PS3.

Retailer over here even had a Buy 2 get 1 free promotion over the festive season on Sony Blu-Ray titles.

So yes - over here in sunny South Africa - everything has been Blu - the only people that know about HD DVD over here are my circle of friends and people on the local Xbox forums. As far as the general public and sales people are concerned there is only one HD format and that is Blu-Ray.

Unfortunately I dont have sales figures but with next to zero availability of software and the only HD DVD players being the Xbox add-on (import only) I dont think HD DVD sold more than 100 discs.

So in the end I am very happy about the Warner anouncement as I am actually an Xbox supporter but baught into Blu-Ray as a movie format in middle Dec. using a PS3 as the player (I couldnt wait any longer). My gamble and watching the forums seems to have paid off...

Regards
Douw
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#5
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1/7/08 at 1:00am
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson Au
Boy, I am surprised to see so many threads due to Warners announcement, I see threads merging soon!

One area that I don't think I've seen discussion about is what the markets are like in other countries. The US is not the center of the Universe. This may be a naive view, but back in the last decades laserdiscs were huge in Japan while it stayed niche in the US. So it could be too soon to call HD-DVD dead. I've no clue of what the next few months will shake out from the Warner's stance. HD-DVD's may stay around in other countries. It seems though anything is possible.
I too agree that the focus shouldn't be solely be on the US. It's premature to assume that the format war is even over considering other countries still have HD DVD and not all Blu-ray releases are actually "exclusives". We'll see the actual outcome in the coming months.
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#6
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1/7/08 at 2:48am
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Quote:
One area that I don't think I've seen discussion about is what the markets are like in other countries. The US is not the center of the Universe.
The situation is practically the same as the USA's in Europe (i.e. neither format has exactly enjoyed massive sales, but BD has outsold HD, in spite of dedicated HD machines being cheaper). I believe it's true elsewhere in the world as well.

The big issue in the UK is whether we will get region encoding enforced once there is no competition from HD. In the UK, this would probably kill the market stone dead as UK retailers always price gouge given the chance. E.g. before region-free machines were widely available, Brit stores were selling SD DVDs at $40 each, and generally stripped of the extras on the US versions. Once competition from internet imports started to bite, prices came tumbling down. But if region-free BD players don't become available, we could see region coding implemented, prices will stay high, and consumers are simply going to vote with their wallets and stick with SD because BD will be too expensive.
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#7
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1/7/08 at 12:37pm
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Conversely,

Here in Fiji, everything has been sunny RED.
REGION coding and price being the 2 main factors.

Combo discs are feasible.
TWIN would be better.

Looking forward to more news...
Yumbiosis - all things Yumbo
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#8
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1/7/08 at 1:21pm
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

I believe the worldwide sales figures, not including the US, show Blu-Ray software outselling HD-DVD by a 7:1 margin. Here in India, I have yet to ever see or hear of any HD-DVD hardware and/or software availability and this includes grey channels. Whereas, Sony has been selling Blu-Ray software officially and there are tons of Blu-Ray titles available thru grey channels. As for hardware, the PS3 has been selling thru grey channels from almost the day it was launched in the US. The PS3 has also been available officially since March of last year. There are also stand alone Blu-Ray players being sold officially by Sony and Pioneer. Thus as far as the rest of the world, besides the US, is concerned, this decision by Warner is more than welcome.

Sanjay
Member since July - August 1997

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#9
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1/7/08 at 1:31pm
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Quote:
I believe it's true elsewhere in the world as well.
... except Fiji.

Quote:
TWIN would be better.
I don't think this is an unrealistic hope. At the moment, if you shop around, you can find SD players that can cope with 'minority' or outmoded software types (e.g. DVD-A and SACD, VCD, etc). By analogy, I'd be amazed if in the near future we don't see dual players, precisely to attract consumers with an appreciable number of HD discs.
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#10
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1/7/08 at 1:52pm
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Io,

Ratio is 271 to 0 at the moment, lol.
Soon to be 295 to 0.
Must make 300!

Weird how we keep hearing from (uninformed) customers that someone told them we do blu ("never").

To date: WE initiated HDM, 360, and a "XXX of FIJI" LIVE gamertag campaign.

Stats after 12 months:

HD DVDs 271 and counting.
HD DVD owners 22 and counting.

Console sales to date:

360 - 35
PS3 - 2
Wii - 2

Game rental titles in 2007:

360 - 105
PS3 - 0
Wii - 0

Interesting times...ps. We're the biggest Apple user around here, so MacWorld next week will dictate our position.
Yumbiosis - all things Yumbo
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#11
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1/7/08 at 1:54pm
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

If there was the slightest chance of HD-DVD to survive they would not have cancelled the big HD-DVD event at CES tonight. They would have pulled out any and all of the stops for this.
As far as having a competing High Definition format that only two major studios support, it can't survive, even if Microsoft were to swoop in and save the day by giving huge discounts on hardware. This was created not to give consumers a choice but for these companies to make as much money as possible.
If Universal and Paramount want to cash in on HD before it's too late I have one hyphenated word for them Blu-ray.

BTW: Warner couldn't just drop HD all in one day. They have product in the pipeline and promises and contracts to fulfill before washing their hands of this mess.

Thank you Warner for making a final decision and giving the public hope for a blu future.
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#12
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1/7/08 at 3:39pm
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Re: Though it's likely HD DVD is dead....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson Au
The US is not the center of the Universe.
LIAR!!!
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