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Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

#1621
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2/2/08 at 1:06pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpcos
Then why were they posted and spread so prominently across the internet? Someone was trying to say they WERE indicative of something.

You missed my point completely. A single data point is not indicative of anything. However, when you analyze the data point with other information, then you can determine trends by studying a more complete data set. I believe that's what the people spreading the information across the internet were doing...analyzing multiple data points.

Quote:
But it can make it INVALID without context or completeness, and data's validity is just as important as its accuracy. And leaking data is unquestionably unethical.

The numbers are only invalid if they are wrong. They are not invalid in the absence of context. It is not NPD's role to determine the context, which is why they published their "disclaimer".

And leaking data is not unethical, unless their is an NDA involved. Leaking information is the backbone of breaking news in any industry. Often it's even an intentional leak, involving plausible deniability, which I think is the case here.
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#1622
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2/2/08 at 1:54pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Whether or not one finds it unethical if data is leaked by the owner of the data is a matter of discussion.

But leaking data is certainly unethical if the leaker is not the owner of the data, or else someone authorized by the owner to do so. It may even be illegal.


Cees
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#1623
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2/2/08 at 3:19pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by nolesrule
You missed my point completely. A single data point is not indicative of anything. However, when you analyze the data point with other information, then you can determine trends by studying a more complete data set. I believe that's what the people spreading the information across the internet were doing...analyzing multiple data points.

I didn't miss your point. If the data are not valid or not collected and analyzed in their complete context, this measure is not a valid single data point, so there is no value in determining trends (there were none) by studying a more complete data set (which we don't have).

Quote:
The numbers are only invalid if they are wrong. They are not invalid in the absence of context. It is not NPD's role to determine the context, which is why they published their "disclaimer".

Data can be invalid for a certain purpose without being wrong. Going to BB and watching two HD DVD players being sold and then proclaiming that at BB today, HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray 100:0. It would not be wrong, but it is invalid for supporting the claim being made.

NPD said the number should not have been released and that not much should be read into them. It was also made clear that the numbers do not include online retailers such as Amazon. Of course, that fact was not in any of the initial articles, let alone the fact that about 90% of the players were given away as part of bundle with TVs. If you're looking at data to draw reasonable conclusions, we need to know exactly what we are looking at.

Quote:
And leaking data is not unethical, unless their is an NDA involved. Leaking information is the backbone of breaking news in any industry. Often it's even an intentional leak, involving plausible deniability, which I think is the case here.

If that's the case, then why doesn't The Digital Bits publish this information every single week? They don't, because they can't or they don't have it. We don't know if an NDA was broken, and if so, by whom. We do know that NPD said the data should not have been made public. That sounds like someone broke their agreement or proper protocol.

We can debate whether certain instances of leaking data are unethical, but since this data was so misleading and it was used to feed a propaganda machine and to mislead the public, I judge the ethics involved to be questionable. Obviously, you feel different.
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#1624
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2/2/08 at 6:44pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Cees,

we confirmed that Bill Hunt did not alter the numbers in another thread. I hope you're not suggesting that he changed the figures.

As for the general conversation about the efficacy of sharing NPD data:

NPD apparently charges its members to have access to the numbers and so they generally aren't made publically available (so folks will have to pay). However, the *ratio* is public, just not the actual figures. When Bill posted the numbers last week apparently another source had already leaked them to the public, so the cat was out of the bag that week. Not sure how the efficacy of shareing the numbers works out after they've already been leaked on the web, but that's a fair issue for debate. It seems that this week everyone has been going by the book (as they should) and not posting actual figures.
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#1625
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2/2/08 at 7:07pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Who on here would argue that Paramount and Universal should not release Blu-ray movies. It is still all about the content. Like a number of people on the web have said, it is time to have one format. That means all studios supporting a format. I sent my note to Universal and Paramount. What about you?

Number of player sold at a cheap price does not mean they are HD player sales. They could be replacement DVD players. Hope you take that into account. We could see a jump in Toshiba player sales and still have declining HD-DVD movie sales. But does Toshiba care, since they have a big stake in keeping DVD or HD DVD alive. Their key word is DVD to get royalties.
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#1626
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2/2/08 at 7:18pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
I sent my note to Universal and Paramount. What about you?

I allready sent emails to both studios

1080p High Definition SupporterLossless Audio Supporter Current Library: 221 DVD's / 70 HD-DVD's / 181 Blu-ray's (251 HD Titles)

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#1627
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2/3/08 at 10:41am
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan_Ohio
Who on here would argue that Paramount and Universal should not release Blu-ray movies. It is still all about the content. Like a number of people on the web have said, it is time to have one format. That means all studios supporting a format. I sent my note to Universal and Paramount. What about you?

Number of player sold at a cheap price does not mean they are HD player sales. They could be replacement DVD players. Hope you take that into account. We could see a jump in Toshiba player sales and still have declining HD-DVD movie sales. But does Toshiba care, since they have a big stake in keeping DVD or HD DVD alive. Their key word is DVD to get royalties.
Instead of "sending notes" why don't you just buy the HD A3? It's on sale for $150 and comes with seven (7) HD-DVD selections. It's a steal!!!
Of course, if you have strong economic or philosophical problems with this purchase.....well, it's still a damn good buy.
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#1628
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2/3/08 at 11:17am
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
You missed my point completely. A single data point is not indicative of anything. However, when you analyze the data point with other information, then you can determine trends by studying a more complete data set. I believe that's what the people spreading the information across the internet were doing...analyzing multiple data points.
There's a lot of snow in that statement. This was spread across the internet
for one reason. It was to hurt hd-dvd player sales. Aside from BetaNews, there has not been one bit of analysis other than more people are buying blu-ray. That's why these numbers were leaked and the analysis was not. The analysis says that more blu-ray players moved because of the give-away and not because people were buying them. Also the fact that NDP does not count Amazon sales is a pertinant piece of data as well.

As for Bill Hunt, he lived down to my expectations. He has proven again that he is the propagandist for bluray. I have yet to see him acknowledge that NDP
does not count Amazon sales. That certainly distorts the numbers in bluray's favor. Also if giveaways boosted so-called bluray sales the first week, then it is not unreasonable to assume that is responsible for bluray's 2-1 lead the second week. Yet Bill Hunt continues this charade that more people are buying bluray. I'll bet if Toshiba was giving away players and their sales were beating bluray, Bill Hunt would be screaming at Toshiba. That's why I no longer go to his site.

There are 2 things relevent about NPD.

1. They do not use online retailers.
This certainly skews the numbers towards bluray. Currently, the A3 is 32nd in Amazon's list of electronics best sellers and no bluray player is in the top 100.

2. They do not use sales figures from chain stores. They go to around 10-99
retail outlets and get their figures from point of purchase.

Anyone who uses these figures or ratios as weekly sales is being dishonest. These are nowhere near being complete.
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#1629
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2/3/08 at 11:43am
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by FrancisP
Currently, the A3 is 32nd in Amazon's list of electronics best sellers and no bluray player is in the top 100. Anyone who uses these figures or ratios as weekly sales is being dishonest. These are nowhere near being complete.

The Amazon ranking is meaningless. They have to many categories to pick from. And you dont know how well, or how many they sell of anything. They could sell 10 HD players, and it could still be in the top 30, we dont know. Would you call me dishonest, because i tell my friends that Blu-ray has 75% of the studios support, and while HD players seem to be selling well, the discs sure are not flying off the shelf. Is that dishonest? Would it be dishonest if HD sales increased, and these same sources are used to inform us?
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#1630
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2/3/08 at 12:04pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Cees,

we confirmed that Bill Hunt did not alter the numbers in another thread. I hope you're not suggesting that he changed the figures.
David,

I didn't mention anyone in particular in my post, so no, I wasn't particularly suggesting it was Bill doing that.


But now you mention his name in this matter: no-one "confirmed" that he didn't alter the numbers either. Unless you're referring to a post of you yourself (and are using pluralis majestatis), which was quoting another source using the same figures Bill did. Because they didn't get the numbers from NPD either, that could very well have been copied from The Bits, and thus prove nothing at all until we know where they came from.

Of course it certainly either didn't "prove" Bill did changed those numbers.


Cees
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#1631
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2/3/08 at 4:27pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

I sure wish this thread went back to the subject at hand, it's tiring getting emails of posts about the posted numbers and who might have changed them, wouldn't that qualify for a different thread subject?

Columnist for the GOLDEN HOLLYWOOD column on The Digital Bits.

Equipment: Denon 3808 Receiver, ,Epson 1080 projector, 150" screen, PS3, Denon 3930 dvd player, Dish Network.

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#1632
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2/3/08 at 10:32pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cees Alons
David,

I didn't mention anyone in particular in my post, so no, I wasn't particularly suggesting it was Bill doing that.


But now you mention his name in this matter: no-one "confirmed" that he didn't alter the numbers either. Unless you're referring to a post of you yourself (and are using pluralis majestatis), which was quoting another source using the same figures Bill did. Because they didn't get the numbers from NPD either, that could very well have been copied from The Bits, and thus prove nothing at all until we know where they came from.

Of course it certainly either didn't "prove" Bill did changed those numbers.


Cees

The numbers came from NPD via industry sources who regularly have access to them. The numbers are real, and NPD's public statements reflect this. If you don't believe the numbers, that's your choice. I agree with Robert - you guys should get back on topic.

Bill Hunt, Editor
The Digital Bits
http://www.thedigitalbits.com
billhunt@thedigitalbits.com

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#1633
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2/3/08 at 11:42pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Glad to hear that from the horse's mouth.


Cees
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#1634
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2/3/08 at 11:58pm
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Was that ever in doubt? We said they were NPD numbers on The Bits, and NPD has certainly not denied them. In fact, NPD confirmed them in multiple statements to other industry press. I myself have spoken with NPD directly. Which leads me to ask, why is any of this worthy of debate here?

Bill Hunt, Editor
The Digital Bits
http://www.thedigitalbits.com
billhunt@thedigitalbits.com

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#1635
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2/4/08 at 12:06am
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Re: Breaking News!! Warner is soon to be Blu-Ray Exclusive!

Bill,

Yes, there was doubt. The numbers weren't officially released by the NPD, and it was unclear whether or not this was the first time the 360 add-on was left out.

There were discussions if figures that weren't official should be used in this manner, and, if so, what the meaning would be. In my opinion, they shouldn't be used if, as you say, they weren't officially released by the NPD.


Note: Indeed, the "Warner going exclusive in the future" topic seems exhausted. I'm closing this thread!


Cees
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