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*** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread *See Post 957, p. 32*

#691
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

If I were WB (or Time Warner) I would be playing both sides against each other to get the best deal.

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#692
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adam Gregorich
If I were WB (or Time Warner) I would be playing both sides against each other to get the best deal.

Aye, but I do think Paul Scott's thoughts make some good sense. And of the various partisan companies involved, I could definitely see Sony being the one that would hold out the most/longest in this format war regardless of how it goes -- and they could very well hold out indefinitely until both sides die rather than to surrender and switch sides judging from their history, even if Warner goes HDD exclusive. It's certainly *part* of the reason why I decided to jump into BD myself...

_Man_

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#693
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Man-Fai Wong
Aye, but I do think Paul Scott's thoughts make some good sense. And of the various partisan companies involved, I could definitely see Sony being the one that would hold out the most/longest in this format war regardless of how it goes -- and they could very well hold out indefinitely until both sides die rather than to surrender and switch sides judging from their history, even if Warner goes HDD exclusive. It's certainly *part* of the reason why I decided to jump into BD myself...

_Man_
Judging from Sony's recent history, it wasn't that long ago that they threw in the towel and abandoned their own Betamax format and began manufacturing VHS players....oh, the indignity of it all.
Regarding WB, the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB. Besides, if they needed a cash infusion as some people suggested, it sure would be prudent to accept incentives from both formats NOT to go exclusive, and stay neutral.
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#694
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigluigi
Judging from Sony's recent history, it wasn't that long ago that they threw in the towel and abandoned their own Betamax format and began manufacturing VHS players....oh, the indignity of it all.

Actually, I think SACD (vs DVD-Audio) is more recent than that. No, it's not quite the same situation of course, but neither was Betamax vs VHS. Still, I think it's not quite that far off -- and it's very recent. And before SACD, Sony also had somethings called DAT and MiniDisc too though those were not involved in any direct format wars, but my point is Sony's not afraid of going it more or less alone. And wasn't there also a format war of sorts w/ Laserdisc too -- and that's probably quite relevant here?

Given the state of the HDM market (*and* the SD DVD market), I honestly don't think Sony will cave too quickly if ever at all. Plus one might also need to factor in how Sony views BD in other markets like the computing (and gaming) market and maybe even the personal HD video market, not just in the prerecorded/movie HD video market. Who knows? Given how average consumers behave, the prerecorded HDM market might never be as big as the other relevant markets. Considering that not even everyone on HTF seems to see HDM as a huge upgrade over SD DVD, this market may very well stay niche indefinitely. And if it does stay niche, then Sony probably has very little to lose by sticking w/ BD exclusive -- in that case, whatever format exclusive studios can always just continue to sell SD DVDs.

Quote:
Regarding WB, the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB. Besides, if they needed a cash infusion as some people suggested, it sure would be prudent to accept incentives from both formats NOT to go exclusive, and stay neutral.

I doubt something like that would become a real PR nightmare. This kinda stuff happens all the time. It's not like the general public has already jumped on one side while WB decides to take the $$$ from the opposite side...

_Man_

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#695
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Regarding WB, the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB. Besides, if they needed a cash infusion as some people suggested, it sure would be prudent to accept incentives from both formats NOT to go exclusive, and stay neutral.

It's not a bribe. Time Warner executives have a responsibility to do what it best for there shareholders (myself included). It's not about formats, but their bottom line. I don't think either camp will pay for neutrality, any deal would be for exclusivity. Since they were offered money by both sides and could compare the pros of both, I don't see a PR problem as they would be seen by the mainstream press as the studio who ended the war. The PR problem and pressure whould be on the studios that are left on the losing side as the writing will be on the wall.

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#696
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigluigi
Judging from Sony's recent history, it wasn't that long ago that they threw in the towel and abandoned their own Betamax format and began manufacturing VHS players....oh, the indignity of it all.
Regarding WB, the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB. Besides, if they needed a cash infusion as some people suggested, it sure would be prudent to accept incentives from both formats NOT to go exclusive, and stay neutral.

Why would that be a PR nightmare? It's just a business deal. Deals like that happen every day in this country.

Doug
"I'm in great shape, for the shape I'm in."
Bob Hope in The Ghostbreakers
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#697
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul_Scott
Sure I could be wrong...but this does make some kind of sense...doesn't it?
Some of the items really don't make much sense.

What would it matter to any of the other studios if Sony continues to produce BD for years to come? If they are the only ones producing them for all intents the war would be over. Neither side could survive if they were down to one studio.

Another item I just never see happening is the selling of patents to Sony. One, why would Sony want them? They already have a competing format that is not compatible with the other so purchasing the patents makes no sense. Also why would Warner want to sell them? Even if they get a good package that convinces them to go Blu only they might as well hang onto the patents and make a little gravy on the side.

I'm more in league with Adam's comments, the group that provides Warner with the best package to go exclusive will win them over.
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#698
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I like that the lack of indication about which way WB might go exclusive (if they do) is keeping the usual suspects from screaming about "payoffs" etc., because they'd look like utter fools if the "payoff" winds up coming from "their" side.
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#699
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Some of the items really don't make much sense.

What would it matter to any of the other studios if Sony continues to produce BD for years to come? If they are the only ones producing them for all intents the war would be over. Neither side could survive if they were down to one studio.

The patents or royalties only have value to the owner (in this case Warner), if other studios produce content. If one or more major studios refrain from producing content on the format in favor of another format (or none at all), then the royalties don't generate as much revenue.
The thing is, is the ready made PS3 base, Sony (if it were not cost inhibiting to do so) could put out Bds of its own titles to service just that one segment. These people aren't going to stop using their PS3s if HD DVD suddenly becomes the dominant HDM format. And a few of these lines have already been built.
HD DVD dominance would likely inhibit new Bd lines from being built - but the ones that are already made would still need to be justified to some point by producing product.

Quote:
Another item I just never see happening is the selling of patents to Sony. One, why would Sony want them? They already have a competing format that is not compatible with the other so purchasing the patents makes no sense. Also why would Warner want to sell them? Even if they get a good package that convinces them to go Blu only they might as well hang onto the patents and make a little gravy on the side.

Last part first- It would be in Warners interest to sell them because at the moment the new Time/Warner CEO is more concerned with the immediate stock value of the company. They are going to be selling off many assests in the months to come, paring the company down. These patents represent a potential source of future revenue- and by all indications, most notably overwhelming consumer apathy at this point, this full potential might never, ever be realized. if we only get a couple hundred titles a year for the next 10 years...these royalties aren't worth much of anything at all. Holding on to them is the same as placing a bet and the company does not look to be in a long term betting mode at this point.

Why would Sony want them? well for one thing it would be a capital expense that would have immediate tax implications (tho they likely don't need any more write-offs when they already have so many products losing money). Also, They could conclude that both formats are likely to co-exist in some form for several years, so why not have a hedge in case anything goes wrong with their own?
The patents would have a practical immediate value to the company as far as taxes go, and they could possibly have a future value if the formats don't play out as expected.
Or-on the flip side, Sony owning the royalties means that they can kill the format outright when current contracts run out by pricing them non competetively with their own Bd royalties.
There may be anti-trust issues here, but this clearly something Warner would have no interest whatsoever in doing if they owned them, whereas it could defintely be in Sonys interest to use them this way.

bottom line, it is easy for me to see the royalties having more value to Warner now as a sellable asset- and having value to Sony as either a hedge against their own formats failure, or as a monkey wrench to put the competing format in disarray and finally kill it off.
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#700
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

It's interesting that "Shoot em up" is getting it's own encode, but since New Line's day/date BD's are being released MONTHS before their HD-DVD counterparts, this doesn't really seem all that shocking too me and only makes sense. If there's any evidence that they're going BD exclusive, I don't think this is it. Lol.


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#701
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by ReggieW
It's interesting that "Shoot em up" is getting it's own encode, but since New Line's day/date BD's are being released MONTHS before their HD-DVD counterparts, this doesn't really seem all that shocking too me and only makes sense. If there's any evidence that they're going BD exclusive, I don't think this is it. Lol.

Personally, I don't know if this particular case really indicates anything *BUT* if one can gather enough circumstantial evidence, one can build a pretty good/reasonable case for the argument. Well, at least that's how it usually works w/ debates and such where one cannot really rigorously prove something either way, including in a court of law.

Still, have there been other releases where the HD-DVD came first, but the BD used a different encode (or have been announced to use a different one, if not yet released)? I honestly do not know. If not, I'd think this case does probably mean at least a little bit more than you believe. But yeah, it's still circumstantial of course.

And anyway, IMHO, if one really cares about the overall concern of the matter, don't completely dismiss such potential indicators as not being "evidence"...

_Man_

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#702
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
the thought of this current format war being decided by the which camp bribes WB to go exclusive, to me is repulsive and would be a PR nightmare for WB
No, just like in the case of Paramount, it wouldn't be a bribe.
First of all, it never is, because it's offered to the official party (Warner) who's making the deal and there are no signs they are doing anything in conflict with their (shareholder's) interest.
Secondly, partly such an offer will almost certainly be a compensation for giving up on the other format. In the third place, it will probably not be an "all-cash" deal, but involve profits through other components.

If this is what's going on, I don't see anything unusual in the business deal.

Quote:
I like that the lack of indication about which way WB might go exclusive (if they do) is keeping the usual suspects from screaming about "payoffs" etc., because they'd look like utter fools if the "payoff" winds up coming from "their" side.
Yes, that's interesting too.

Quote:
The patents or royalties only have value to the owner (in this case Warner), if other studios produce content.
True, so it might be interesting to Warner what other studios will do if Warner would choose a format exclusively. And if they would sell a patent, BTW, they themselves would become "another studio using it".
There's certainly more at stake.


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#703
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I would like to thank Bill Hunt for pointing out an article in the New York Times in his Two Cents yesterday that I think sums up much of my feelings on this "war". Of course, he only cherry-picks one comment out of the article to bolster his position:

Quote:
And the New York Times ran a feature story in its Business section over the weekend on how most consumers are sitting on the sidelines in the high-def format war. It's a pretty general piece and seems a little behind-the-curve in terms of the latest developments, but interesting is this bit of information from the text: "As an indication of their owners’ enthusiasm, Blu-ray users are buying twice as many discs as their HD DVD counterparts, according to Tom Adams, president of Adams Media Research." I don't think we'd actually heard independent confirmation of this before.

But I think the quote from that same Mr. Adams at the end of the article is more telling:

Quote:
"When high-definition DVD reaches its tipping point, studios will have to release their movies in both HD DVD and Blu-ray," Mr. Adams said. "No studio will be able to afford not to."

As I said, this sums up my feelings pretty well. The only holdout (in either format) I can see is Sony.

However, my other feeling is that HDM will never go mainstream (another idea discussed in the article Mr. Hunt references). I think that this "Format War" is really a "Format Battle". The real war is with SD DVD. And, unfortunately, I don't think it's one that HDM is going to win unless the companies actually replace SD DVD with HDM. In other words, they have to stop (or significantly reduce) the amount of SD DVDs they produce and force consumers to switch. I can't see this happening until after the HDTV switch in '09. And that particular event, I believe, is going to leave the average consumer in such a bad mood that they aren't going to reward the CE companies by rebuying their media collections in HDM (even though that aggression may be misplaced). Again, that's just how I see it.

But at this point, I can't recommend HDM to anyone except enthusiasts. My mom, for instance, has no need or interest. Even friends and family that usually get interested when I invest in a new toy (full disclosure: I am one of those pigs that had the gall to buy a $98 A2 during the "firesale") have shown no interest in joining me on this new venture. And, in some ways, I can't blame them. But it has almost nothing to do with competing HD formats (sorry to disappoint you, Mr. Hunt).
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#704
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
I don't think it's one that HDM is going to win unless the companies actually replace SD DVD with HDM. In other words, they have to stop (or significantly reduce) the amount of SD DVDs they produce and force consumers to switch. I can't see this happening until after the HDTV switch in '09. And that particular event, I believe, is going to leave the average consumer in such a bad mood that they aren't going to reward the CE companies by rebuying their media collections in HDM (even though that aggression may be misplaced). Again, that's just how I see it.
It could be relatively painless, though, if HD players are very cheap (under $100) AND the discs are priced about the same as DVDs (although that seems to be a big if at this point). People could still play their old DVDs, and buying and using the new HD discs wouldn't involve much of a learning curve.
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#705
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I tend to agree w/ you, Eddie, on most points though I obviously hope for a better outcome than that, but I probably wouldn't mind too much if the HDM market does end up staying niche kinda like LD though I'd like to see pricing not go through the roof as a result -- if software pricing stay more or less like now, that's fine by me.

The one thing I do fear though is whether HDM might go the way of hirez audio (ie. SACD vs DVD-Audio) and die a slow death. I doubt it will since the climate for HDM looks quite a bit better than hirez audio. For one thing, we don't really (yet?) have the video version of the MP3 phenomemon to worry about on top of SD DVD. For another, the movie industry just seems to be much better at/about marketing to consumers than the music industry. And then, there's the fact that we're generally moving toward HD for broadcast/network TV, etc., so that would indrectly help the marketing push. Still, I agree the actual shift might be much slower than we like, and the average consumer's perception of benefits will also depend a whole lot on whether he/she is changing viewing habits, eg. display size-to-viewing-distance ratio.

But while I agree it'll be a tough sell to get average consumers to update all their existing SD DVDs to HDM -- heck, there are enough HTF-ers, including myself, who don't plan to update every title as it is -- I think the studios could probably still do well w/ day-and-date releases of new films on top of certain releases of catalog classics. From what I understand, those are the kinds of releases that generate the most sales (and profits) for studios anyway. So that might not be a big problem for HDM unless one expects HDM to completely replace SD DVD. And as RobertR implied above, hardware makers could help facilitate the switch by only producing HDM players (that also play SD DVDs) at affordable prices. Heck, look at how Sony's doing w/ the PS3, using a game console to help facilitate a switch to BD -- works for me and many others.

In the end, I think everything is still very much up in the air though. There are so many variables involved -- some we touched on and some we haven't. It's really hard to predict where we'll be w/ this say 5 years from now. But I think we can probably all agree that HDM would have a better chance to succeed if this format battle gets resolved asap...

_Man_

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ensign Eddie
I would like to thank Bill Hunt for pointing out an article in the New York Times in his Two Cents yesterday that I think sums up much of my feelings on this "war". Of course, he only cherry-picks one comment out of the article to bolster his position:



But I think the quote from that same Mr. Adams at the end of the article is more telling:



As I said, this sums up my feelings pretty well. The only holdout (in either format) I can see is Sony.

However, my other feeling is that HDM will never go mainstream (another idea discussed in the article Mr. Hunt references). I think that this "Format War" is really a "Format Battle". The real war is with SD DVD. And, unfortunately, I don't think it's one that HDM is going to win unless the companies actually replace SD DVD with HDM. In other words, they have to stop (or significantly reduce) the amount of SD DVDs they produce and force consumers to switch. I can't see this happening until after the HDTV switch in '09. And that particular event, I believe, is going to leave the average consumer in such a bad mood that they aren't going to reward the CE companies by rebuying their media collections in HDM (even though that aggression may be misplaced). Again, that's just how I see it.

But at this point, I can't recommend HDM to anyone except enthusiasts. My mom, for instance, has no need or interest. Even friends and family that usually get interested when I invest in a new toy (full disclosure: I am one of those pigs that had the gall to buy a $98 A2 during the "firesale") have shown no interest in joining me on this new venture. And, in some ways, I can't blame them. But it has almost nothing to do with competing HD formats (sorry to disappoint you, Mr. Hunt).

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#706
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I will still contend it's about market penetration of HDTV sets, so we are still about 3-4 years (even with the 2009 deadline for digital broadcasting) away from 50%-60% homes having at least 1 HDTV set, but once HDTV sets are commonplace in homes, HDM purchase levels will follow. Then the battle between HD and SD will turn in HD's favor. This is why HDM will not stay "niche" like naysayers propose. It's just a matter of time. In 10 years, NTSC will not impact the HDTV landscape, and SD DVDs will be like VHS in terms of shelf space in stores. Whether HDM is 1 or 2 formats in 10 years (or a totally different HD format), it'll be more the norm than one based on NTSC (or PAL). We are still in HDM's infancy.

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#707
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by RobertR
It could be relatively painless, though, if HD players are very cheap (under $100) AND the discs are priced about the same as DVDs (although that seems to be a big if at this point). People could still play their old DVDs, and buying and using the new HD discs wouldn't involve much of a learning curve.

The problem is a lot of people own more than one DVD player in their house, one in the living room and another in the bedroom... even the kids room could have one. There's also computers, portable players and the one in the mini-van. Unless they have an HD-DVD combo disc, they'll only be able to play the movie in the one part of the house. It also makes lending titles out to friends useless.

People have only just recently (relatively speaking) adopted the DVD format and are fully committed to it. It's too much to ask of them to adopt another format for a slight improvement in video quality being the only difference.

As I've been saying, HDDVD/Blu-Ray arrived 10 years too late and about 15 years too early for mass consumer acceptance.
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#708
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick Sun
This is why HDM will not stay "niche" like naysayers propose. It's just a matter of time. In 10 years, NTSC will not impact the HDTV landscape, and SD DVDs will be like VHS in terms of shelf space in stores. Whether HDM is 1 or 2 formats in 10 years (or a totally different HD format), it'll be more the norm than one based on NTSC (or PAL). We are still in HDM's infancy.

Pat, I would agree w/ this if we didn't also have to worry about some other form of HD video delivery like VOD/downloads (as mentioned by some others). I was just thinking like you myself, but then 10 years is a long ways off, and many things can happen to keep HDM from taking over. Perhaps, it won't quite be niche like LD, but it also might not dominate the landscape like SD DVD has now. In the earlier days of SD DVD, there were also some concerns about VOD potentially taking over, but VOD just didn't have the infrastructure in place in time to compete before SD DVD won over the public. But maybe this time around, HDM might not have quite the same leg up on VOD as SD DVD did.

Also, don't forget about upconversion of SD DVD too. There are enough HTF-ers who seem to think that's good enough as it is. Who's to say the general public won't also feel upconverted SD DVD is good enough on their HDTVs? And remember, VHS (and analog cable TV) did very well despite the fact it actually offered only ~1/2 the resolution that NTSC was capable of. Of course, if hardware makers stopped producing players that upconvert SD content, that would help. Then again, in 10 years, who knows if the CE business would still be quite the same as today as we continue to move towards convergence between computers and general CE gear. At that point, hardware makers might not really be able to stop people from upconverting SD content at all.

Personally, I do hope BD wins the format battle as I feel it has the better chance in the long run to succeed given the nature of its technology beyond being an HDM format. But again, who knows how these things will shake up?

_Man_

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#709
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

HMM Jan 6 - Jan 12, 2008



Titles Released Dec. 18, 2007
Blade Runner (Complete Collector's Ed.) (Warner)
Blade Runner (Ultimate Collector's Ed.) (Warner)
Shakira: Oral Fixation Tour (Sony BMG)
The Simpsons Movie (Fox)
Sunrise Earth: American Sunrises Vol 1 (Discovery Channel)
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (Warner)
That’s Entertainment: Complete Collection (Warner)
Underdog (2007) (Walt Disney)

Balls of Fury (Universal)
Blade Runner (Complete Collector's Ed.) (Warner)
Blade Runner (Ultimate Collector's Ed.) (Warner)
The Moody Blues: Lovely to See You - Live (Image)
R. Kelly Live - The Light It Up Tour (Image)
Roy Orbison: A Black & White Night (Image)
Stardust (Paramount)
Sunrise Earth: American Sunrises Vol 1 (Discovery Channel)
That’s Entertainment: Complete Collection (Warner)


Percentages
BD / HD
61 / 39 Week
64 / 36 Year
62 / 38 Since Inception

Top 10 Titles
1 The Bourne Ultimatum HD 100
2 The Simpsons Movie BD 84.47
3 POTC: AWE BD 63.85
4 Harry Potter OoTP BD 57.28

5 Harry Potter OoTP HD 44.38
6 Planet Earth HD 42.31

7 Spider-Man 3 BD 34.61
8 Transformers HD 32.76
9 300 BD 29.96
10 Planet Earth BD 28.51


Number of Titles in Top 10
BD:6
HD:4

Weeks Won In 2007
Blu-ray 51 IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII IIIII I
HD DVD 0
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#710
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Frankly, in ten years I hope we have moved beyond spinning platters for anything. Even today, you can 4G on an SD (Secure Digital) flash card. You could probably get the content of a double DVD set on something the size of a Nintendo DS cartidge. And these numbers are only going to go up. I doubt it is inconceivable that the entire Star Trek Season One in HD could fit on a prom cartridge the size of a standard DVD.

This, I think, points out one of the other advantages that SD DVD had that HDM does not -- form factor. Going from VHS or (especially) LD to DVD was a significant reduction in size for the media. DVD also had the advantage over VHS of being random access, of course.

HDM doesn't have any of these ancillary advantages pushing people towards it. This isn't really a consideration for HT enthusiasts, but I think it does make it a harder sale for the general public. Again, that's just my opinion.


Quote:
But I think we can probably all agree that HDM would have a better chance to succeed if this format battle gets resolved asap...

I'm sorry, Man, but I really can't agree with this (but I do agree with most of the other things you have said). I just don't think competing formats is what's keeping most people out of the fray. If both formats survive (and that's an admittedly big "if"), people and retailers will adapt. Just as they have with video game software. I know some don't think this is a good analogy, but I just think of my local Best Buy. Somehow multiple versions of "Guitar Hero" co-exist quite well. And if Aunt Mildred buys it for little Johnny on the wrong format, little Johnny knows this before opening it and most likely can get it exchanged. Why can this not work for HDM?
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#711
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I agree. The competition "battle" hasn't hurt the consumer at all. We're paying less than we would have if there had been one format only. And that goes for almost any aspect - even the PS3.
And the consumers who know *all* about both formats but cannot decide, are like a tiny minority.

I think it's hurting the industry more, in their view, so this is why they would possibly work to get it ended one way or another. Especially Sony, who has much to lose, and in fact had to swallow terrible losses in their PS3 department (even forcing the long-term head of the department to resign) should be able to find the means (do I need to spell it mean$$$?) to convince one or two few pivotal parties to help them.

As I said before, nothing filthy about that in sheer business terms: one party has something the other wants and vice versa, so a deal is possible.
It might not be in our interest as a consumer, but I think "the industry" would be very busy talking now.

Whatever outcome, and whenever, I personally hope some of the competition will stay anyway: I want the ICT-bit to stay in the OFF-position, I want region-code to disappear, I want the script-reading-of-each-individual-disc functionality of BD+ to stay unused... and a few other consumer-friendly aspects to be continued (BOGO-sales anyone? ).


Cees
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#712
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Patrick Sun
I will still contend it's about market penetration of HDTV sets, so we are still about 3-4 years (even with the 2009 deadline for digital broadcasting) away from 50%-60% homes having at least 1 HDTV set, but once HDTV sets are commonplace in homes, HDM purchase levels will follow. Then the battle between HD and SD will turn in HD's favor. This is why HDM will not stay "niche" like naysayers propose. It's just a matter of time. In 10 years, NTSC will not impact the HDTV landscape, and SD DVDs will be like VHS in terms of shelf space in stores. Whether HDM is 1 or 2 formats in 10 years (or a totally different HD format), it'll be more the norm than one based on NTSC (or PAL). We are still in HDM's infancy.

I agree with you that its a matter of time. Just as it was with color television. It took from 1954 when color TVs first became available till 1974 before more color TVs were sold than B&W TVs.

According to the Consumer Electronics Association in April of 2007 28% of American homes had HDTVs. Thats actually more than I would have guessed. I think once analog TV goes away in 2009 that number will jump considerably. Particularly when you think about how quickly the price of an HDTV has come down. I'm guessing you'll soon (with in the next two years) be able to get a 42 inch 1080p TV for between $600 to $800.

Doug
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#713
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ensign Eddie
Frankly, in ten years I hope we have moved beyond spinning platters for anything. Even today, you can 4G on an SD (Secure Digital) flash card. You could probably get the content of a double DVD set on something the size of a Nintendo DS cartidge. And these numbers are only going to go up. I doubt it is inconceivable that the entire Star Trek Season One in HD could fit on a prom cartridge the size of a standard DVD.

I don't doubt the techology could be there for this, but there's no indication right now that we'd get there in 10 years. I suspect both HDM formats would have to fail *and* HD VOD would also have to fail for us to get to something like that w/in 10 years -- well, I suppose the studios and hardware makers could possibly be starting a new format war w/ this at that point...

Quote:
This, I think, points out one of the other advantages that SD DVD had that HDM does not -- form factor. Going from VHS or (especially) LD to DVD was a significant reduction in size for the media. DVD also had the advantage over VHS of being random access, of course.

HDM doesn't have any of these ancillary advantages pushing people towards it. This isn't really a consideration for HT enthusiasts, but I think it does make it a harder sale for the general public. Again, that's just my opinion.

True that.

Quote:
I'm sorry, Man, but I really can't agree with this (but I do agree with most of the other things you have said). I just don't think competing formats is what's keeping most people out of the fray. If both formats survive (and that's an admittedly big "if"), people and retailers will adapt. Just as they have with video game software. I know some don't think this is a good analogy, but I just think of my local Best Buy. Somehow multiple versions of "Guitar Hero" co-exist quite well. And if Aunt Mildred buys it for little Johnny on the wrong format, little Johnny knows this before opening it and most likely can get it exchanged. Why can this not work for HDM?

I'm not saying the HD format competition is the only or even biggest issue, which is why I agree w/ many of your points. But since there are already other significant obstacles to overcome, I just feel having one less obstacle w/ this would help the chances of mainstream adoption. Afterall, if you feel that chances already aren't so great, then I'd think each obstacle will matter unless you think the odds are overwhelmingly against adoption and one less obstacle won't make a difference.

RE: the gaming analogy, that's a good point though I wonder how much of that has to do w/ how there has never really been just one dominant format for gaming -- and people never needed to overcome any instilled mindset about wanting/needing one single format for it. Also, the gaming demographic isn't quite the same as the movie-buying/renting demographic either although that has gradually changed over the years. And finally, it'll also depend on whether having 2 HDM formats means both sides will still have exclusive studios. In the gaming world, most people (other than enthusiasts) probably don't buy into multiple competing formats -- unless you count portables vs at-home consoles. However, if studio exclusivity continues w/ HDM formats, the average consumer might not be willing to adopt until/unless uni-players become affordable, eg. perhaps fall below the $200 mark. There are enough other obstacles already. They don't need one where they're forced to choose one over the other (or having to go w/ 2 separate players).

Again, I'm just saying the chances of success is better if there's only one format, instead of 2 competing formats. And no, I'm not just trying to justify my own recent jump into BD as I don't really mind going "Purple" if I feel confident both formats are here to stay.

_Man_

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#714
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cees Alons
I agree. The competition "battle" hasn't hurt the consumer at all. We're paying less than we would have if there had been one format only.

That's debatable. SD DVD did fine too after DIVX died. A format battle isn't really quite the same as a typical competition between brands of some commodity product though. Yes, during infancy of the formats, I agree that the competition probably does help in this regard. But will the same persist beyond that? I remain highly skeptical that it will help more than it will hurt in the long run, if it persists.

Quote:
And the consumers who know *all* about both formats but cannot decide, are like a tiny minority.

Decide what though? Decide which format w/ exclusive studios to choose? OR decide to just adopt both (presumably w/ an affordable-to-most uni-player)? And if you believe exclusivity will end, then why believe that both formats will thrive? Without exclusivity, I don't see why the average consumer will bother to consider supporting both formats. Heck, I certainly wouldn't want to support both, if that's the case.

Quote:
I think it's hurting the industry more, in their view, so this is why they would possibly work to get it ended one way or another.

...

As I said before, nothing filthy about that in sheer business terms: one party has something the other wants and vice versa, so a deal is possible.
It might not be in our interest as a consumer, but I think "the industry" would be very busy talking now.

Well, if it's hurting the industry (or rather, the businesses), then that's gonna get passed to the consumer, no? Each one of these issues don't operate in a vacuum afterall. What is bad for the businesses will eventually hurt the consumer as well in the long run (and vice versa, of course).

Quote:
Whatever outcome, and whenever, I personally hope some of the competition will stay anyway: I want the ICT-bit to stay in the OFF-position, I want region-code to disappear, I want the script-reading-of-each-individual-disc functionality of BD+ to stay unused... and a few other consumer-friendly aspects to be continued (BOGO-sales anyone? ).

But there will be competition even if there's just one HD format since the average person don't just buy everything that the studios and hardware makers put out -- and there's still SD DVD to overcome afterall. At minimum, you still have competition between retailers, if pricing is your main concern -- and I don't know that BOGO sales are strictly the territory of format battlegrounds...

_Man_

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#715
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

I guess the wait is finally over -- at least wrt Warner's decision...

Breaking: Warner Goes Blu-ray Exclusive | High-Def Digest

_Man_

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#716
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Well, if it's hurting the industry (or rather, the businesses), then that's gonna get passed to the consumer, no? Each one of these issues don't operate in a vacuum afterall.
You are forgetting how small this market piece still was (and is). Currently they "had" to offer prices and advantages to us they'd rather not, much to our advantage.
When the competion between two formats come to a halt, that will undoubtedly disappear.

And you (or other consumers) are paying the losses on, say, the PS3 to Sony already: through anything in cameras you buy from them. Last year they had a terrible loss in their PS3 department, but it was more than balanced by the gains in the Optic department (and a few others).


Cees
HTF Rules (uhm ... and has Rules)
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#717
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cees Alons
You are forgetting how small this market piece still was (and is). Currently they "had" to offer prices and advantages to us they'd rather not, much to our advantage.
When the competion between two formats come to a halt, that will undoubtedly disappear.

Oh, I agree if the market stays this small. But if they are serious about building up the market, I don't think prices can go up from here. And if it stays this small, well, 2 formats couldn't continue to keep this up for long anyway, not when they are backed by for-profit companies.

Like I said, why couldn't a single format going forward follow the SD DVD path? Of course, that's assuming a single, "united" HD format can actually win over the general public like SD DVD did. But again, if HDM can't overtake SD DVD, I don't think having 2 competing formats will help all that much over the long haul -- the companies will probably just decide sooner rather than later that HDM w/ 2 formats is a dead end (much like w/ hirez audio), if the market stays this small.

Quote:
And you (or other consumers) are paying the losses on, say, the PS3 to Sony already: through anything in cameras you buy from them. Last year they had a terrible loss in their PS3 department, but it was more than balanced by the gains in the Optic department (and a few others).

Cees

I don't know how this has to do w/ this particular part of the discussion. If I buy some other Sony products to subsidize PS3 losses, that's separate from HDM, no? If you mean Sony can do likewise and just absorb losses in HDM market via gains in other CE products, I say maybe. They'd have to derive additional other gains they don't already have in order to subsidize such additional losses. And actually, I don't think Sony is making quite as much $$$ from cameras anymore at this point unless they can actually win over the DSLR market -- they still have the market shares in compact digicams, CCDs, LCD parts, etc., but the actual profit margins seem to be dwindling over the years. And the last Sony camera I bought was an 8mm camcorder; I'm a Nikon/Canon/Fuji guy w/ cameras since then though maybe I'll go back to Sony for an HD camcorder someday, but that won't be anytime soon me thinks.

_Man_

Just another amateur learning to paint w/ "the light of the world".

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#718
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

first posted here by CochiseGuy,
High-Def Digest Forums - View Single Post - Nielsen VideoScan 2008 thread: ratios, bestsellers, etc.

original source
DVD feels first sting of slipping sales - USATODAY.com

Quote:
The HD format war so far

Blu-ray Disc vs. HD DVD

No. of discs sold in 2007:

Blu-ray: 5.7 million (64% or $172.8 million)
HD DVD: 3.2 million (36% or $97.2 million)

Discs sold since inception:

Blu-ray: 6.1 million (62%)
HD DVD: 3.7 million (38%)

Source: Redhill Group

Top-selling high-definition discs of 2007 (through 12/30/07)

1. 300 (Blu-ray/Warner): 472,400
2. Planet Earth: The Complete Series (both formats/BBC Video): 294,300
3. Transformers (HD DVD/Paramount/DreamWorks): 239,100
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Blu-ray/Disney): 219,300
5. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (both/Warner): 179,500
6. The Departed (both/Warner): 171,800
7. Casino Royale (Blu-ray/Sony): 169,800
8. Bourne Ultimatum (HD DVD/Universal): 162,300
9. Spider-Man 3 (Blu-ray/Sony): 145,300
10. Ratatouille (Blu-ray/Disney): 117,500

Source: Redhill Group

seems like 300 at number one is also both formats not only Blu-ray..

Marek
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#719
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

One look at the release schedule for the first quarter is enough to show that Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks cannot carry HD-DVD by themselves and that this "format war" is all but officially over. In fact, the extra ordinarily low number of titles, a grand total of 7, announced so far by the two studios for release on HD-DVD in the entire first quarter, is quite telling in itself.

The list below only takes into account 'NEW' (non catalog) titles only.

Title St. Date
Resident Evil: Extinction 01-02-08 Sony
Shoot 'Em Up 01-02-08 New Line
War 01-02-08 Lionsgate
3:10 To Yuma 01-08-08 Lionsgate
Dragon Wars 01-08-08 Sony
Sunshine 01-08-08 Fox
White Noise 2 01-08-08 Universal
Good Luck Chuck (Unrated) 01-15-08 Lionsgate
Mr. Woodcock 01-15-08 New Line
Game Plan, The 01-22-08 Disney
Saw IV 01-22-07 Lionsgate
Daddy Day Camp 01-29-08 Sony
Invasion, The 01-29-08 Warner 02-19-08
King Of California, The 01-29-08 First Look
Accross The Universe 02-05-08 Sony
Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, The 02-05-08 Warner 03-18-08
Brave One 02-05-08 Warner 02-26-08
Elizabeth: The Golden Age 02-05-08 Universal
Jane Austen Book Club, The 02-05-08 Sony
Suburban Girl 02-05-08 Image
Becoming Jane 02-12-08 Miramax
Gone Baby Gone 02-12-08 Miramax
No Reservations 02-12-08 Warner 03-04-08
We Own the Night 02-12-08 Sony
American Gangster 02-19-08 Universal
In the Valley of Elah 02-19-08 Warner 03-11-08
Michael Clayton 02-19-08 Warner 03-11-08
30 Days Of Night 02-26-08 Sony
Beowulf 02-26-08 Paramount
Justice League: The New Frontier 02-26-08 Warner 03-18-08
Into The Wild 03-04-08 Paramount
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium 03-04-08 Fox
Things We Lost in the Fire 03-04-08 Dreamworks
Appleseed Ex Machina 03-11-08 Warner 04-01-08
August Rush 03-11-08 Warner 04-01-08
Bee Movie 03-11-08 Dreamworks
Dan In Real Life 03-11-07 Touchstone
Hitman (Unrated Edition) 03-11-08 Fox
No Country For Old Men 03-11-08 Miramax
Saawariya 03-11-08 Sony
Sleuth 03-11-08 Sony
Enchanted 03-18-08 Disney
I Am Legend 03-18-08 Warner 04-08-08
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story 03-25-08 Sony


January - March '08 Blu-Ray HD-DVD St. Date Warner Neilsen NPD 115132 76148
Day/Date New Titles 37 8 01-02-08 3 0 0 01-06-08 65% 35% 01-05-08 51% 49% 15257 14558
Exclusive 36 7 01-08-08 3 1 0 01-13-08 85% 15% 01-12-08 93% 7% 21770 1758
01-15-08 2 0 0 01-20-08 83% 17%
BBC 0 0 01-22-08 2 0 0
Disney 2 01-29-08 3 1 0
Dreamworks 2 02-05-08 5 1 0
First Look 1 1 02-12-08 4 0 0
Fox 3 02-19-08 2 1 1
HBO 0 02-26-08 2 1 1
Image 1 0 03-04-08 1 2 1
Lionsgate 4 03-11-08 7 1 2
MGM 0 03-18-08 2 0 2
Miramax 3 03-25-08 1 0 0
New Line 2 37 8 7
Paramount 2
Sony 10
Touchstone 1
Universal 3
Warner 10
Weinstein 0


PS: Although Warner has announced that they will continue to release on HD-DVD till the end of May '08, they have also stated that titles will not be released on HD-DVD day and date with DVD & Blu-Ray. Thus Warner titles have not been counted in the HD-DVD release column for the purpose of this post.

Sanjay
Member since July - August 1997

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#720
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Re: *** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread

As I'm on the edge of buying a PS3, I came to realize why I went HD-DVD.



There are easily 4 times the amount of movies on HD-DVD that I wanted compared to Blu-Ray.


It's just a personal preference thing, and definately a reason why I'm not sad that I ever bought HD-DVD, I flat out wanted the movies offered on the format.




My expectations on Jurassic Park in HD. I better fricken BE THERE!
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