The next Boulder?

After vising Boulder, CO this past weekend, I was left to wonder: Is there a new up-and-coming area that offers some of the advantages of Boulder, but isn't so incredibly expensive?

Boulder's housing costs are obscene. A small house (1,200 sq. ft.) can easily run over $300K. It costs about half a million to buy a decent-size single-family home. This is prohibitive for most dual-income professional couples; single people may as well forget it.

It wasn't always this expensive. Growing up in Boulder in the 1970s, many of my neighbors were single-income families with two kids. They could comfortably afford a 2,000 sq. ft. house and raising a family on ONE engineer's / techie's salary.

I'd read that Bozeman, MT was a similar up-and-coming area. But a quick check of realtor.com revealed that housing costs there are as high as Boulder! Might as well live in Boulder if you have $400K kicking around...

Currently I'm living in Austin, TX - much more affordable than Boulder or Bozeman, and said to be like Boulder in a number of respects. But Austin is much bigger and has incredibly long, hot summers. The job market there also got crushed by the 2001-2004 IT bust, and is only barely springing to life again...

Surely Austin isn't the only place where everybody who got priced out of Boulder went. What are other similar places that offer a progressive attitude, a good natural environment, tolerable weather, and good job prospects?

So far, my research suggests that I can't do much better than Austin when it comes to duplicating that Boulder "magic" on a reasonable housing budget (<$100 per square foot for single-family homes).

But if there's somewhere like Boulder that I can get in on the ground floor, before home prices get bid up to $200/sq. ft., you have my undivided attention...

Re: The next Boulder?

I thought Boulder's real estate prices were plunging due to the real estate bubble popping? Can't you just wait a few years?

San Jose's housing costs are obscene. A small house (1,200 sq. ft.) can easily run over $800,000. It costs about one and a half million to buy a decent-size single-family home. This is prohibitive for most dual-income professional couples WHO BOTH INHERITED MONEY; normal people may as well forget it. By comparison, they are GIVING AWAY houses in Boulder.

Money Magazine, Forbes, et al. have many "10 best places to live" articles on their websites. I took their advice.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2006/

http://www.fineliving.com/fine/our_s..._46260,00.html

If you want a town politically left-wing, avoid Boise. We are the capital of conservative/libertarian red-state America, which of course suits me just fine. Try Portland, Seattle, and the like.

Re: The next Boulder?

Are you sure Bozeman is really that expensive? I find that hard to believe. FWIW, I know all these cities fairly well, and yes, Boulder is obscenely expensive, which is why most people live in other towns in the area such as Niwot (which has also gotten high now) or Johnstown, Longmont, etc. The main problem I see with Bozeman is that unless you are a professor, I'm not sure how much potential there is for a career. It is a tiny town compared to the others.

If you are looking for a college town and were considering Bozeman, look into, and don't laugh at or just brush this off, but look into Laramie Wyoming. It is very similar to Bozeman, less remote and still is very cheap. The only real down side is that it gets pretty freaking windy there, but no more than Boulder does. They have clocked winds in excess of 100 mph in Boulder.

I've lived all over the country, and this area has the nicest weather overall I have ever experienced. You just have to put up with the periodic snow, which is typically gone in no time. This past winter was the worst I have ever seen, by far, though.

Re: The next Boulder?

Asheville, NC

$250k will buy new construction 4 bed 2.5 bath. Always rated as one of the top places to live.

Re: The next Boulder?

That's not just in CO. Trying to find a house under $300K is pretty impossible these days...well, at least in any sort of non-rural area.

Re: The next Boulder?

Actually it's quite easy if you don't live on the coast. All of upstate NY. Much of TN. Indiana. I believe all three have new construction homes for <$200k. $400k will buy you 4000 sq ft ranch, depending on area. And in Rochester you can buy a home in the city for < $100k.

Re: The next Boulder?

DaveF is right, once you get away from the coasts and certain "hot" areas, housing can be affordable. The real-estate bubble never happened in the "flyover" states.

It is possible to get a 4,000 sq. ft. 2-story house for <$250K in the Austin and Dallas areas. This kind of affordability has spoiled me rotten. As a reference, I consider an area "affordable" if you can easily get a 2,000 sq. ft. single-family home with a basement (or 2,500 sq. ft. without a basement) for under $200K.

HT enthusiasts should understand - 5.1 or 7.1 with a projector takes up a lot of room, and subwoofers aren't condo-friendly.

Keep the suggestions coming. I won't be moving out of Austin in the immediate future, but I'm keeping an eye out for alternatives. Boulder was likely "undiscovered" 30-35 years ago, but then the secret got out and too much money poured in from out of town.

The ideal for me would be a clone of Boulder at 1/2 to 1/3 the price. Austin almost nails it, except for the extreme summer heat and relatively bland natural setting (at least in the affordable areas).

JohnRice -

Having grown up in Boulder, I have personally experienced those 100MPH winds. I could lean hard into the wind, and it would hold up my body! Fortunately, those 100MPH winds are pretty rare. Is Laramie more prone to high winds than Boulder? I'd imagine the climate there would be like a "colder Boulder."

And yes, Bozeman is very expensive. Lots of houses in the 1,200-1,500 sq. ft. range with asking prices of $230K-$300K. Not quite as expensive as Boulder in dollars, but still unaffordable to locals. The town is pretty small (27,000-40,000) and its economy based mainly on the university. This could yield a salary-to-housing price ratio that's even less favorable than Boulder!

Niwot and Louisville/Lafayette are in the same price class as Boulder. Niwot, in particular, is almost all million-dollar homes now.

In Longmont, most of the houses are over $300K as well. It seems the price of entry is the same, but you get more living space for the money.

Dennis Nicholls -

I don't have historical stats to see if Boulder's housing prices are dropping as the real-estate bubble bursts - or not. The prices don't seem any lower than a year ago, the last time I looked before today.

Prices would need to get back down under $100/SF for me to consider moving back there. (Or my salary would need to triple from current levels ... not bloody likely...) If more people from overheated coastal markets successfully cash out and show up in Boulder, prices won't drop back into a range where middle-class residents can buy in.

I am in Austin right now because it seemed that houses were being "given away" in Texas compared to Colorado - prices of $50-$80 per square foot are easily achievable, but you have to endure those sweltering summers...

Without digressing too much into politics, you pretty much got it - I am looking for a left / liberal-leaning area to call home. That rules out most of Texas, except for Austin, and maybe a few pockets in Dallas or Houston.

Re: The next Boulder?

Well, since we're speaking anecdotally anyway, I'm a single guy affording a 3100 sq ft house in Boulder on ONE engineer's salary. Adding a non-working wife and two hungry kids would probably unbalance that equation rather quickly, but I bought the home just over three years ago for ~$400k. I rented for many years saving up so I could pay 20% down and qualify to purchase a place that I'd want to live in long term. For tax purposes the assessor just sent me a letter telling me that it's worth $500k now, although the house two doors down has been sitting unsold for at least 6 months - probably hoping for a similar payday. I looked up the data for my neighborhood for the last three years and the average $/sqft for sales is $150 to $160. Unfortunately the assessor data only goes up to June '06 so I can't identify any recent trends. It's not a particularly bold statement to say that it won't be going below $100/sqft any time soon, in spite of whatever bubble doomsayers might promise. It will never get to $50 to $80/sq ft. The growth limitations imposed by the city council have pretty much guaranteed that property values will remain elevated due to the reduced supply. The sales data for Martin Acres for homes above 2000 sq ft shows an average of $110/sq ft over the past three years. These are not big new homes, but they're in the city limits. That's about as low as I suspect you'll find unless you want to live in a trailer park.

I guessing that you aren't interested in living near Boulder in newer development areas like Superior, Erie, Broomfield, etc.? You'd still get the weather and proximity to the mountains, just not the left-leaning populace.

Unfortunately, the same reasons that compel you to live in a place like Boulder will most likely keep the price above what you want to pay. It will never be as affordable as Texas because you get the obvious benefit of not having to live in Texas.

Brad

Re: The next Boulder?

Ay, there's the rub. Most left/lib places are crowded, on the coasts, and very expensive. The quiet, affordable places (in gross generality) tend to be red-state America.

I moved from San Jose to Boise and got more-agreeable politics and a much improved standard of living.

Have you considered Santa Fe NM?

Although centered around discussions of the SF bay area market, this is an interesting site:
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

Many publications I've read state that the boomers are going to retire en masse to the Rockies.

Re: The next Boulder?

Well, I live in Mid Michigan, a blue state if you will and in my town of Flushing, you can get 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath, two car attached garage, pool, 2817sq ft of main living space plus a full finished basement for 297k http://homes.realtor.com/search/list...rcnt=16#Detail

That being said, good luck finding a decent job with the auto industry taking a dump and nobody here really having the motivation to work hard anymore it seems. My town Flushing is great, considered one of the upscale communities in our area, the downside is we are attached to Flint, the 3 most dangerous city in the country....

Re: The next Boulder?

This map may help to stimulate your thinking. It's by county for the entire lower 48. I may have been right....northern NM may be a place for you.

Re: The next Boulder?

I think you should decide where you want to live first, then scale into a place that fits into your budget there. What happens if you move to Flint, MI and it *never* turns into the next Boulder? What do you do then? If you want Boulder, live in Bouder or the nearby area. The city proper might be impossible financially, but surely you don't need to be at ground zero city limits?

I just bought a farmhouse outside of Boulder (in Lafayette) that's 6500 ft (w/finished basement), sits on 7 acres, has 2.5 shares in irragation ditch that runs along property, and is about 4 miles from Boulder proper for ~$800k. If we pay the city $3k we can get it zoned for horses and it'll be worth $1mil+ instantly.

Obviously that's not cheap but considering the location it's bargain basement. Had we wanted a place for say $250k we could have been just outside of Boulder (2 mi?) in a 2500 ft house with a little effort. It's just a matter of doing some searching and legwork to find the right spot for you. We wanted a farm not far from Boulder, so that's what we found (eventually.)

Re: The next Boulder?

Portland, OR (particularly the East side of town) is very left leaning (west side is engineers so mostly conservative). If you want to lean even more start heading south (Corvallis, Eugene, etc.).

Re: The next Boulder?

Large portions of the blue area in northern NM are actually reservation land or are very sparsely populated, but Taos and Santa Fe are showing up mostly blue. They definitely attract a certain type. The red blob to their west is Los Alamos, which is red because they know which side the bread is buttered on and who butters it.

The blue blob that stands out the most to my eye looks to be Rapid City, SD, although that may actually be the reservation (Oglala Sioux?) near the Badlands. How about that, Colin? Want to live at Wounded Knee?

Brad

Re: The next Boulder?

I left out the part about the pyramids and crystal spheres....

Please bear with me as I have a fondness for maps showing statistical data....

This shows the dosage of radioactive iodine from pre-1962 activity at the Nevada test site. The map is courtesy of the US House of Representatives and gives another meaning to the red state vs. blue state distribution. Fortunately radioactive iodine has a very short half-life and you are "safe" if you move there now.

Re: The next Boulder?

Another cost of living driver is the cost of electricity:


I'm looking for a similar map of availability and cost of water but can't find one.

Re: The next Boulder?

Another concern when relocating is the probability of natural disasters.


Remind me never to move to Memphis.

Re: The next Boulder?

> Is there a new up-and-coming area that offers some of the advantages of Boulder, but isn't so incredibly expensive?

Try Havana or Ho Chi Minh City.

Re: The next Boulder?

Re: The next Boulder?

Brad Porter -

To what extent do you think asking prices for houses are overinflated in Boulder? Your anecdote about the neighbors' house suggests that despite the city's property assessments, comparable homes to yours don't really command $500K, or someone would have bought it by now (especially in a 'desirable' area like Boulder).

In Austin, most homes are selling for about 96% of the original listing price. Getting a home for 20% off the asking price seems unlikely unless the market is crashing, in which case time will be on my side.

Joe S. -

There are limits to which I can "scale into" a place in my price range, especially when we're talking about Boulder. It is nearly impossible to buy HT-friendly digs in that price range in Boulder, Longmont, Louisville, or Lafayette. Many condos/townhomes are listed above $300K in those areas, and home theaters don't mix well with multi-family housing.

I left the Boulder/Denver area in 2000 because the property bubble there made it unaffordable for me to enjoy the standard of living I thought appropriate to my occupation and salary level. Since then I've been checking the market periodically to see if the bubble has burst. Hasn't yet.

Remember, I grew up seeing technical professionals buy 2,000 sq. ft. houses in Boulder on one income; condos were occupied by college students and service-industry workers. Paying $300K for a condo (which requires a 6-figure income to qualify) seems ludicrous to me, unless it's a beachfront property in Hawaii...

What would be so different about Boulder now as opposed to in the 1970s to justify tripling the cost of housing in real (inflation-adjusted) terms? If there is no fundamental difference, in the long run the prices should come back down to historical levels.

Re: The next Boulder?

I should add that both Boulder and Austin are "blue" spots in otherwise "red" states. That's part of the advantage - get off the crowded and expensive coasts but enjoy some of what the coastal cities have to offer.

BTW, Dallas County went blue in the last election. Who woulda thunk it?

Re: The next Boulder?

I am born in raised in Bozeman MT. Its expensive to live in town. 200k will get you a 3br condo. 300+ is required for modest 3br house. 350-400 is the norm for a 3-4 br in a good part of town. It has been going up quick since the early 90s. A new home that went for $170k in 1998 is now worth 250k.

If your all about outdoor activities, its a great place to live.

Re: The next Boulder?

I also have some interest in the Boulder area, but I'm concerned about housing costs. Joe's insinuation that $800k is "affordable" is laughable to me it belongs in the other thread about "who's wealthy". I can't imagine buying such a house without a family income of > $300k, or previously sold house of similar value. I am not so wealthy: I will never be able to afford a $800k house. Even $400k is unreasonable for the forseeable future.

I've not heard of $200k houses near Boulder -- what sort of homes are these?

Re: The next Boulder?

Ok I gotta say this.

Collen you get sick of Texas already? I think I mentioned the long hot summers to you years ago.

anyway. small left leaning communities are usually pretty expensive.

have you tried outside of Bozeman MT?

Re: The next Boulder?

Now that I'm actually a homeowner I think they are horrendously underpriced. Just kidding... Most detached dwellings (read not townhomes or condos) selling for under $350k aren't really desirable properties to live in. The bottom end of the market is 1-story 1200 sq ft, 30 yr old homes that still will cost $280k. They have limited value as starter homes because even the lots aren't that great. From your viewpoint those homes are overpriced considering their actual value as a place to live, but they still benefit from the same supply-demand influences that drive all the prices here. From $350k to $425k you'll start seeing bigger houses with full basements and nicer neighborhoods. Above that range you'll find many options available for locations and housing styles. Looking at the current home listings on www.coloproperty.com, I'd say that my home compares with those listed in the $450k to $480k asking price range.

My neighbor's case isn't really informative because I believe he's selling it himself and the only advertising I've seen him use is a sign in the front yard. The data I've seen suggests that home prices in Boulder are stagnating over the past few years, but they aren't dropping more than a few thousand dollars.


The people who wanted to live here grew and the housing supply didn't. The policymakers decided that they liked Boulder to stay roughly the size that it is, so they restricted growth and pursued an open space policy to surround the city with nature rather than suburbs - simultaneously creating more reasons for people to want to live here. The tech boom of the 1990s gave many of those people the ability to go ahead and purchase homes in Boulder and the average home price grew substantially as existing homeowner's took advantage of the seller's market.

So I guess you just have to blame all the other yuppie, liberal Boulder twits who don't know the value of a dollar.

Brad

Re: The next Boulder?

To be more accurate Colin, Colorado really isn't a "blue" state. In fact, the joke around here is that Colorado is purple. Statistically, it is virtually a three way dead heat, with the state evenly divided between Republican, Democrat and Independent. Our latest Governor is Democrat and Senators are one D and one R. Boulder and Denver, which actually accounts for most of the population are pretty liberal. The East (not much population) is rather conservative, and of course, there is Colorado Springs, which is about as conservative as it gets. I live North, In Ft. Collins, which is a pretty rabid mix.

Regarding Laramie, people talk about how windy it is, but I seriously doubt it is as bad as Boulder, which has the benefit of channeling the winds down the canyon and into town. It just can blow like hell all along the Front Range. Laramie is not enough further North of Boulder for it to change the weather, but it is probably about 1,500 ft higher, so it will be a bit colder.

For that matter, Ft. Collins has become extremely (far too) popular. Real Estate is still too high, but nothing like Boulder. You can still get a liveable house in the 200K area, but 250 or so is probably more realistic. The University here (CSU) may be bigger than CU, but I'm not sure. The population is definitely higher. Too many people here complain about it, but I have lived all over the country and can say they are full of it. They just don't realize how nice it is here.

Oh yeah, someone mentioned Boise, which is definitely worth checking in to. Don't expect a very liberal culture though.

Re: The next Boulder?

Ft. Collins is generally in those lists of top 10 places to be, along with Boise.

Idaho is a libertarian conservative state, not a social conservative state, where in the words of Martin Luther King people are judged not by the color of their skin but by the content of their character. The mainstream press seldom mentions Idaho unless it's to discuss various neo-nazi groups who have since been run out of the state - to the relief of the vast majority of Idahoans. There are a lot of religeous types here, but Idaho also has the highest percentage of atheists/agnostics in the US - something like 35% IIRC. The first Jewish governor elected in US history was Idaho's governor Moses Alexander during WWI, and he was re-elected to a second term. Around here people are very accepting as long as you live a moral life, work hard, and pack heat.

Re: The next Boulder?

That was helpful. I did some searching for Boulder & Longmont and saw a diversity that surprised me. Newer, large homes (2000+ sq. ft., built after 1990) were $350k and up. But next door could be $150k home; but it was typically from 1963, 1500 sq. ft., and it made me wonder if those homes needed commensurate remodeling.

What stunned me more was that Condos & Townhomes were no less expensive than new homes, while offering less living space, smaller garage, etc. I don't understand the value proposition: Spend as much as you would on a new home and get less? Their locations didn't see any better either.

I'm considering whether I'd want to try and transfer to Boulder for work. As far as I can tell, I'd need a 40% increase in salary to get decent house.

Re: The next Boulder?

David -

I was afraid you'd stumble across this thread. Turns out that except for the hot summers and the tech bust, the move to TX wasn't so bad for me. It seems that the high real-estate costs that drove me out of Colorado are still an issue.

Because of Boulder's anti-development policy, I'd really given up on the idea of living there again unless the market crashes. So I started this thread to try to find out if there are other places similar to Boulder, but without the hyper-inflated housing prices.

My conclusion, after all this discussion, is that despite the hot summers and red-state politics, no one has identified a much better "Boulder replacement" than Austin that fits within my budget. I'll just have to stay inside during the summer. (Much like people in Colorado had to stay inside this past winter!)

So now I go back into hiding for a few years, and I'll check on the Boulder real-estate market again around 2010. That is, unless I happen to buy a winning Lotto ticket before then.

Re: The next Boulder?

Colin I would check around.

The housing market has really crashed here. you certainly will not find much change in Boulder but both North, south and east Denver it really is a buyers market out here.