When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

On Wednesday I am due to receive my first high definition player.

I would have loved to support both HD formats as I feel neither
is going away any time soon. I decided NOT to buy into Blu-Ray
because of the $1000 pricetag attached to it.

This is tough for me, because I realize that in a few months
the studios are going to be releasing day-and-date product
on Blu-Ray.

My question is this....

When do you forsee prices on Blu-Ray hardware dropping?

Do you think by 4th quarter it's still going to cost $1,000 to
get your foot in the door with Blu-Ray?

...and please don't mention the $500 game console. I don't
play videogames and certainly don't want a game console in
order to play Blu-Ray product.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Correct me if I'm wrong someone...but when Sony announced the delay of their player to the fall, they said the price would remain at $999. So I assume prices won't fall until after that. Maybe Christmas?

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Ron,
I don't expect the player prices to drop until other manufacturers release their players besides Samsung, Sony and Pioneer. Now, that doesn't mean that some retailer might make a special offer to sell some players at $900.00 or so, but I don't expect that to be the norm until much later like the 2nd half of 2007.





Crawdaddy

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

The bigger question is, when will the picture quality improve? From what I am reading (and the demo I saw) it looks more like upscaled 480p then HD, nothing even close to what Toshiba is giving us.

As to the question, I'm guessing we won't see a price drop until the second gen players.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

So, essentially, if these friggin' overpriced players are gonna
stay in the $900-$1K pricerange for the next year, I might as
well go out and buy a player instead of waiting for the prices
to drop.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

You can't be more wrong about the upscaled 480P. I have both formats and the difference in picture quality from the discs I've watched are very little.



Crawdaddy

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Ron,
Who really knows???? I'm just giving you my opinion which is based on nothing, but my gut and pass video format experiences.





Crawdaddy

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

From what I am reading over at AVS the majority say differently about the PQ between HD-DVD and BD.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Believe whomever, but my non-bias eyes think both formats are very similar in performance.





Crawdaddy

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Greetings

If the formats track similar to the DVD ... then expect about a $150-200 drop in price per year ... with each new generation.

Regards

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Ron:

I'm not expecting a price drop of any kind (for either format) until around June-July of 2007.

It would not surprise me to see DVD/HD-DVD/Blu-ray combo decks from Samsung, LG, Cyberhome, and other manufacturers either announced or introduced around that time as well. I expect these first combo decks to cost between $850 - $1200.

(Coincidentally, I'm trying to hold out until July 2007 to purchase into the HD formats even though I'll probably be obtaining some HD-DVD and Blu-ray discs before then.)

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

So that would be 1 non-bias eyes vs more than 1 non-bias eyes over at AVS that says different. I think I would rather stick with what the majority is saying and not the minority.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Every person has to make up their own mind on what to believe or not to in this latest format war.




Crawdaddy

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

I wouldn't buy the Samsung player. It's got too many quirks [in the manual] and, apparently, bugs [not in the manual]. Hopefully, the Pioneer and Sony machines which have been held back for "interoperability testing" should work much better.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

boy..if it's $200 per year, I won't be getting one for about 3-4 years.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Ron,

I would wait for the Sony player if you do decide to drop 1K on a Blu-ray player.

I know you don't want to buy a gaming unit, but for $499 it will probably be the cheapest Blu-ray option for a while.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Actually $599 if you want HDMI, and who wouldn't with the prospect of ICT. But for $599, do you think you'll really get a good quality Blu-Ray player in the PS3? Take a look at the terrible quality of the DVD player in PS2 and I think its a bit premature to assume that Sony will deliver a decent Blu-Ray player in PS3.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

there is also another possibility...
Maybe when Ron gets his A1 and his discs he won't see enough of an imporvment to warrant $500, let alone $1000 on new hardware.

Even though I'm high on the format and at this point would prefer to have everythig I buy from now on be in HD, there are times when I watch regular ole sd dvd and still come away mighty impressed and popping in an HD title afterwards seems less like a quantum improvment and more like a "thats nice" improvment.

everybody has their own eyes, ears, and thresholds and they need to ultimately heed those rather than the voices of the crowds.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

From what I saw (BB demo, via HDMI to a 46" LCD) I was not impressed and it was nothing close to HD-DVD, of course, it was BB so....

When the Sony machine streets I will pick one up for a few weeks just to see with my own eyes. I will return it due to the price but I'll know for sure how it really looks.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

I don't know how to say this without it being viewed as scornful towards you, but I despise such action as buying/using and then returning merchandise you have no intention of keeping before you bought it. It's a practice by some consumers that I have an ethical problem with and it causes retailers to enforce return merchandise guidelines that affects us all including those with legitimate problems with products that they're trying to return.





Crawdaddy

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

http://www.projectorcentral.com/blu...itialreport.htm


I don't doubt you (much) from what you are seeing Robert but from what I am reading it sure is going against the majority. This guys reviews are usually pretty good and this one tends to agree with the majority as well.

You're one of the first people that have stated that these two, HD-DVD and BLu-ray, are producing similar results.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

There is no other way to find out. If BB would give me a proper demo then I would not have to, but they won't, I asked when I was in last week. How else will I be able to judge for myself? I'm open to suggestions.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

I think we, especially me have sidetracked this thread enough. So I'm going to close out this sidebar discussion by saying I know what I'm seeing and if other people disagree with my opinion then that's fine with me.





Crawdaddy

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Perhaps I am being too naive here....

...but it would make sense to me that Sony and Samsung are
going to see the sales numbers on the Toshiba/RCA units and
compare it to their own units that aren't moving at all, then opt to
reduce the price on these players.

I can't touch these players for more than $700-$800, and that
still is overpriced when there are two formats to consider here.

You know, most of us can no doubt afford this player. The
ultimate problem is the ethical part of the purchase. When
Toshiba has a $500 unit and Sony has a $1K unit, there is
something very wrong here. Obviously Toshiba way underpriced
their gear to sell, and Sony gouged their price to take advantage
of the early adopter.

It's gonna be tough on all of us once, in a few months, studios
like Fox, Disney and Sony start releasing new titles day and date.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

There is also the possibility that some of the blu-ray exclusive studios will come over to hd dvd site. I know if Lionsgate, Disney, and Fox went neutral, I could live without Sony for a while.

I think the only way to get the studios to do that sooner rather than later is to send them a message, rather than playing their tune. Right now I own Toshiba and couldn't be happier, so currently I am firmly in hd dvd camp. When/if blu-ray price/performance ratio comes down, I will get that too, but not before.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

I''m not waiting for anything,
i bought the HDXA1 when it first came out and i bought the blu ray the first day it came out...i also buy all the movies in HDDVD and Blu Ray the first day there out...i seen all the movies on both formats and i think they both compare quite equally in picture performance...as for the sound there both the same in the HDMI connection....so for all you people who want to wait and sit back and watch regular dvd's thats your buisness....ya all probably still got a B&W 6 inch tv...you know the tube type.....as for me I LOVE technology at its best and both Blu Ray and HDDVD deliver......

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

The BD camp seems to be following a pricing pattern which is similar to the pricing of DVD when it was first introduced. They have also started with single layer discs which again is similar to DVD when it was introduced. It does not strike me that SONY is "gouging" on price. All of the first gen players from the various BD manufacturers are in a pricing range from 1 to 2K. That range is also very similar to DVD during its introduction. IMO, The BD camp set their price at a level which was intended to ensure cost recovery of some their development costs, plus make a profit. The pricing model is the same one which has been used for the introduction of numerous new formats or even for new features within an existing format. Their price structure seems like "gouging" because Toshiba has chosen to underprice their machines.

Toshiba appears to have decided to pursue a "dumping" strategy. I do not believe for one minute that Toshiba is making a profit on their machines, especially if the comments on build quality (quality and quantity of DACs and DSPs) are accurate. I think (since I cannot definitively prove it) that Toshiba is dumping their machines on the market for a price which is below the cost of production. Toshiba seems to be willing to absorb some initial losses in order to gain market share by positioning themselves as the "affordable" format. If HD DVD became the winning format then I would expect to see the initial pricing of later generations of machines return to a more traditional level, as Toshiba would start trying to recover some of their costs.

Maybe the BD camp should reduce their prices and start subsidizing their machines just like Toshiba. Maybe they would drive HD DVD right off the market because four or five companies could temporarily absorb the losses for a longer period of time than the the main players on the HD DVD side. OTOH, that strategy may not work because Toshiba has the master of subsidization on their side.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Actually, DVD players started at $500 on day one, not $1K to $2K.

I consider $1K to $2K lunatic fringe. Apparently, Pioneer did too when they reduced the price of their unit from $1800 to $1500 (although I still think that is an insane price--I am not going to pay $500 more for a networked player, I don't care if it is "Elite").

The players will generally be available for 10-15 percent discounts if you shop around, or wait until a coupon sale from places like Best Buy. If you can get a discount and swing out-of-state mail order, you can also save sales tax. That is my strategy.

As for price drops, each new model introduced will be a little cheaper, but if they take the Sony strategy, the best build quality will be the first unit released.

- Steve

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

Steve,

Just for clarification....

What player at day one was $500?

The very first DVD player was the Sony 7000 and that was $1k.

Re: When will the price of Blu-Ray hardware start to drop?

I wouldn't start packing the family photo albums into the canoe just yet. There isn't likely to be a flood of must have content any time soon. Especially on the Bd side as I expect the available replication lines to be somewhat congested, having to not only do double duty between movies and games, but also having to fill orders from twice as many companies as the other format.

More studio support is generally a very enviable thing, however there is no free lunch- there is a trade off that goes with it.
Thats probably why Fox has announced plans for a whopping two dozen titles in all of 2006.