Why Blu-ray or Hd-dvd will not be supported even with low player costs

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Dan_Ohio, Aug 24, 2007.

  1. Dan_Ohio

    Dan_Ohio Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2007
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    0
    If we look at the consumers choice when they decide to upgrade or not it is more than just the player costs. They look at the cost to buy content. Using Amazon as the price here is what a consumer would pay this holiday (assuming 199 for an HD-DVD player and 299 for a Blu-ray player)
    HD-DVD = Movies (300,Mission Impossible 3,Hot Fuzz,Shaun of the dead,blades of glory) plus player = 332.75
    Blu-ray = Movies (300,Mission Impossible 3,Superman 3,Pirates of Caribean at Worlds End,Casino Royal) = 426.75
    DVD = (300,Mission Impossible 3,Superman 3,Pirates of Caribbean at Worlds End,Casino Royal) + 35.99 player = 121.94

    The content needs to be cheaper for the format to be adopted. I find it interesting that Paramount uses the claim that HD-DVD is cheaper to produce but the cost of Blades of Glory on amazon is 27.95 and the DVD is 15.99. What people fail to talk about is what was the price of DVDs when players were under 200. I don't remember paying $27.99 at that time. I do remember paying that price when payers cost more.

    We can talk about better picture, but DVD is pretty good (not the best) on an HD-TV. So people may buy the player, but they are likely still buying or just renting the DVD. For me I have already cut down on buying content. I could justify buying the movie, that I was on the boarder, if it was 15.99 or cheaper. At 19.99 I would rent and wait until I could buy a pre-viewed disc. Now I only buy previewed DVDs or Blu-ray movies I really want.
    I wonder how many pre-viewed discs have cut into DVD sales.

    What are your buying habits? Do you rent more with the cost of HD content?

    I am interested knowing what others are doing. Thanks
     
  2. Ed St. Clair

    Ed St. Clair Producer

    Joined:
    May 7, 2001
    Messages:
    3,320
    Likes Received:
    0
    I buy as much HD Disc content as I can.
     
  3. Averry

    Averry Second Unit

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2007
    Messages:
    378
    Likes Received:
    0
    I might drop out of college to buy more discs.
     
  4. Patrick_S

    Patrick_S Producer
    Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2000
    Messages:
    3,247
    Likes Received:
    91
    The reality is the cheaper players will result in more players being sold and that means more software will be sold also.

    As players approach the $199 mark they will become a tack on purchases for those who are buying HD TVs since these people will want to showoff their new TVs.
     
  5. LarryH

    LarryH Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2000
    Messages:
    553
    Likes Received:
    1
    Dan_Ohio: I generally agree with you. I won't buy Blades of Glory on HD because it's just not that appealing to me at that price. If the reviews are good, I may pick it up on SD, but I might just wait and buy it used. It won't be the first time I've done that, either.

    On the other hand, I just ordered the Mr. & Mrs. Smith import HD for $40 because it is a movie I want to see in HD.

    Cost is a major factor in my purchases and I think it will affect acceptance of HD significantly.
     
  6. Patrick_S

    Patrick_S Producer
    Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2000
    Messages:
    3,247
    Likes Received:
    91
    Of course one thing that the original post did not take into account was the economy of scale factor.

    As more players are in homes the studios will lower the media price because they know they will sell more units and hit their ROI goals.
     
  7. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2006
    Messages:
    5,514
    Likes Received:
    12
    I will defiantly pay more for some titles than others. But at this point if you go out and buy a new SD release on release day, you're paying about $19.95. Thats about what I'm paying for HD DVD and Blu-ray on the day they come out anyway. So I'm not really paying anymore to buy HD than I would be spending to buy SD.

    Doug
     
  8. Adam Gregorich

    Owner

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 1999
    Messages:
    15,672
    Likes Received:
    671
    Location:
    The Other Washington
    Real Name:
    Adam
    Dan taking what you said one step further I don't understand why BR and HD DVD see each other as their biggest threat...You're right its DVD. Take your example 6 months into future. The HD DVD and BR will cost the same (at least the SW will), but the DVD SW will continue to fall. I picked up a couple of 4-5 month old titles at Best Buy the other day for $3.99 each. There isn't much follow up discounting with HD. Instead of ripping apart each other sowing customer confusion, both formats need to be showing how they are better than DVD, and why customers need to make the switch.
     
  9. Averry

    Averry Second Unit

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2007
    Messages:
    378
    Likes Received:
    0
    Think about it though, if the studios want DVD dead, they'll just drop the product.

    So......they're still competing with themselves basically.
     
  10. Mark Booth

    Mark Booth Screenwriter
    Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 1999
    Messages:
    1,422
    Likes Received:
    545
    Prior to the end of March, I purchased an average of 6-8 standard def DVDs per month. I have close to 600 standard def DVDs. However, since March, the only standard def DVD I've purchased is the Seinfeld Season 8 set.

    March is when I added a Toshiba HD-XA2 to my gear. After watching King Kong in glorious HD-DVD I knew there was no way I'd be purchasing any more standard def DVDs. My HD-DVD title collection currently sits at 25. That's an average of 5 per month. And only a couple of those are double-dips (repurchase of what I already have on standard def). I'm pretty much sticking with the promise to myself that I'll only buy new releases (new to any kind of disc) going forward. Sure, I'll double-dip here and there. But, for the most part, I'm happy to watch standard def on my XA2. It does an INCREDIBLE job of upconverting standard def. Beats my Oppo 971.

    If the studios want more of my money, they have to release on HD-DVD.

    Mark
     
  11. Dan_Ohio

    Dan_Ohio Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2007
    Messages:
    140
    Likes Received:
    0

    It is a good thing DVD has so many people wanting the content. Otherwise like laser discs they would kill it.
     
  12. Averry

    Averry Second Unit

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2007
    Messages:
    378
    Likes Received:
    0



    Well definately.


    Of course they'll never drop it, but I dont' think we can phrase the issue as DVD vs. Hi Def content. It's not like Microsoft had the problem of Xbox vs. Xbox 360, because they dropped support for the Xbox.
     
  13. Adam Gregorich

    Owner

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 1999
    Messages:
    15,672
    Likes Received:
    671
    Location:
    The Other Washington
    Real Name:
    Adam

    The only problem with this is that even though DVD revenue is falling a bit, the studios make a large (maybe even the largest portion) of revenue from DVD. Last figure I have shows HD revenue was around 1% of home video revenue for most of the studios (WB may be an exception).
     
  14. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2006
    Messages:
    5,514
    Likes Received:
    12

    This is quite true. Feature films make quite a bit more money on DVD than they do in the theater.

    Doug
     
  15. Ron-P

    Ron-P Producer

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2000
    Messages:
    6,285
    Likes Received:
    0
    Real Name:
    Ron
    Software prices will drop, not this early on, but they will, give it a few more years. SD-DVD prices were not $15.99 within the first year it came out.
     
  16. Shane_Anthony

    Shane_Anthony Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2003
    Messages:
    133
    Likes Received:
    0

    What he said [​IMG]

    It's very hard to go back to a standard dvd once you get a taste of HD. Even older films like Purple Rain & Goodfellas looked great. I will be more selective in my future HD purchases but I don't see myself buying very many standard disc if any from now on! HD ALL THE WAY BABY!!!
     
  17. Jason Roer

    Jason Roer Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2004
    Messages:
    977
    Likes Received:
    0

    Dan - and if we are assuming player costs will come down to those levels - why are we not also assuming the disc prices will drop as well? Not that I feel it will matter much. You can already get most titles for $19.99 and that was where prices were at this stage of the DVD lifecycle. And, by the way - a year into DVD, I still bought the disc or two that was $27.99 (and not porn or criterion, but regular mass-appeal flicks). I will grant you that Circuit City and Best Buy will have to drop their prices to those levels, but if anyone were to shop on Amazon - they'd think they hit a goldmine.

    Also are the current forecasts calling for a $299 Bluray player? I hadn't heard that, but if so - it's exciting. It will keep competition going between the two formats.

    Lastly - something has to come down in pricing first. And that's usually the hardware. People can get into the format and only sporatically purchase software (if they believe the discs are too expensive for them). As has been stated numerous times, they have a much better SD-DVD player when they go HD and if they can get one so cheap, they will know the disc prices are sure to drop as well. What makes this transition easier is that fact that HD and Bluray are backwards compatible with SD-DVD. But don't expect the masses to get into either this holiday season - only the next tier of adopter. We're still a good 2 years away from the masses considering this purchase.

    Cheers,

    Jason
     
  18. Jason Roer

    Jason Roer Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2004
    Messages:
    977
    Likes Received:
    0

    Laserdisc had more than 20 years in the marketplace. I hardly think it was killed. Rather - it ran its cycle. I still have mine and it works wonderfully and we still pop in a laserdisc to enjoy every now and then. I guess mine is a ZOMBIE Laserdisc player? After all, it's returned from the dead according to your statement, right? I guess that's what they meant when they spoke of LaserRot? [​IMG]

    Cheers,

    Jason
     
  19. Jason Roer

    Jason Roer Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2004
    Messages:
    977
    Likes Received:
    0
    Read Patrik's post #6. He said it more eloquently than I.

    Cheers,

    Jason
     
  20. Robin_B

    Robin_B Stunt Coordinator

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2005
    Messages:
    177
    Likes Received:
    0
    I was living in the UK between 1997 and 2002 and during that time I don't remember the price of DVD's changing very much at all. Sure once a large catalog of titles had been released and more places, more main street stores started selling DVD's then you started to see more sales and such but the overall price didn't change much at all. Same with CD's. I started buying CD's in 1984 and the prices, taking all things into consideration haven't changed much to this day. I think if you're waiting for the retail price of HD discs to come down you may have a long wait ahead of you. Sure you will be able to find deals and sales but the MSRP is going to remain pretty much where it is now. Hardware of course is a different story.
     

Share This Page