Where have all the iPhones gone? (2 Viewers)

[DaveF]

If the iPhone has an IR output, then someone will write a uni remote app. (if it has no IR output, this is all moot.) People wrote these apps for the Palm a decade ago. But it's not a device seller; it's a novelty.

Even stipulating the iPhone could serve as a good, even top of class, universal remote (in this class), I simply don't believe people will want to use their phone as a remote control. Specifically, they won't want or be able to let their family use the iPhone as a dedicated remote because they're using it to take phone calls and listen to music. Who's going to leave their iPhone in the living room all day / evening so the family can use it to watch the news and Blue's Clues? If the most powerful remote in the house isn't actually available for use, who's going to bother learning touse it? That leaves the single guys who can ignore phone calls because they're changing the channel.

This app will be made. I assert it will merely be a novelty, forgotten a month after release.

 

[Ted Todorov]

The iPhone does not have, nor will it ever have IR.

Dave, if you base your predictions on success or failure of iPhone apps based on decade old Palm apps, you really need to use an iPhone before you go on. The Palms don't have a touch screen -- how could they possibly serve as a usable remote??? You need to take a stylus out to change the channel???

Fine, if we are making assertions -- I assert that the sales (or downloads if it is given away) of Remote Control software on the iPhone/iPod Touch will exceed the total all time sales of universal remote devices within three years of the iPhone 2.0 firmware release -- say July 2011. I don't know how feasible it will be to verify this, but I think that if I'm right it should be pretty obvious.

BTW, there already is AJAX based iPhone remote software out, even before the SDK/firmware release. Remote Buddy sells it. You can look at their web site if you want to see what it looks like.

 

[Ted Todorov]

From Wall Street Journal article today about future Apple products:
Click here for the original article.

I'm not the only one who sees the Universal Remote as an obvious iPhone application...

 

[DaveF]

sales by net revenue or "sales" by download count? If the remote software is free, of course everyone will download it. Doesn't mean I'm still not right -- that everyone then forgets about it a month later. I'd take the (gentlemen's) bet based on $$$.

Tell you what, I'll defer to the pundits. There will be articles and articles about the killer apps. If remote control software is a big deal, we'll hear about it here, AVS, and remotecentral.com.

 

[Ted Todorov]

Not going to happen. It wouldn't matter if the AT&T contract ended tomorrow -- T-Mobile is the only other nationwide GSM provider. Apple is not about to make a second incompatible iPhone for the benefit of Verizon. And the AT&T contract isn't about to end.

Re remote: What I have in mind is number of people actually using it. Difficult to measure, I know.

 

[Ronald Epstein]

Allegedly information has been leaked that the 3G iPhone
will go on sale June 9th.

That's the day of Steve Job's keynote address.

This is only rumor at this point but you can read more
by checking out the May 20th update on iPhone Freak.

 

[Ken Chan]

It will. Steve said this toward the end of the SDK Roadmap presentation a few months ago. It's still linked off the Apple home page. You should even be able to watch it on an iPod Touch

 

[Ted Todorov]

The 3G iPhone will be announced on June 9th during Jobs' keynote. As to actual go on sale date, anything is a guess right now, but mine is that weekend (around June 15).

 

[DaveF]

Any rumor as to the iPhone or iTouch supporting -n wireless (it's just a/b/g currently?)?

The iTouch, being an iPod with extra functions, but no phone, camera, or mic, might be allowed in our secure areas. Which could make it a useful PDA-type device at work.

 

[Ted Todorov]

Keep in mind that g is more than fast enough for optimal iPhone performance -- you wouldn't notice any difference with n. (I have successfully streamed 1080i & 720P MPEG2 video at home on a g network to my wife's MacBook. Obviously the maximum resolution for iPhone video is much lower).

 

[Ted Todorov]

From Business Week today:
This refers to Kleiner Perkins' 100 million dollar venture capital fund for iPhone development.

One of the first two ventures they've chosen to fund is the iControl remote control software. Clearly I'm not the only one that thinks it will be a killer app.

 

[DaveF]

Companies of this ilk also funded mail-order dog food, Flooz, Beanz, and innumerable other vapid dot-com businesses.

 

[Eric_L]

Except that when you kid loses the Harmony you can't call it to hear it ring and find it... Score one for Apple.

IMHO I would love to see a universal/programmable remote with voip over wireless... At my house they both sit together on my coffee table all the time anyway (when the kids haven't lost them)

 

[Ted Todorov]

VOIP on WiFi is coming for sure -- Apple was specifically asked if it would be permitted for apps via the iTunes App. Store -- they said yes. I am sure that one or more VOIP apps will be out on day one.

 

[ErichH]

Looks like it. Cool News or what

The Works and Genius of David Fincher

AppleInsider | Tidbits: retail blackout days; 3G iPhone ad filming; iPhone GPS

 

[Ted Todorov]

I should stop beating a dead horse, but Apple is releasing a free iTunes remote for the iPhone/iPod Touch on day one of the app store (July 11th). Something tells me that anyone who uses iTunes will still be using this remote many months later, unless they are using even better third party iPhone software.

The latest analyst estimates published today, based on part supply orders are that Apple expects to sell 15 ~ 17 million iPhones in 2008. That's not counting iPod Touch sales, not counting 2007 sales. Does anyone still doubt that by the end of 2008, iPhones will be more widely used as remotes than all other universal remotes put together? I don't.

 

[DaveF]

Hey Ted, I saw this announcement and knew we'd have to chat about it here . (And I've seen your positive comments on the topic at AVS, too.) But I don't understand what this remote software does.

And I still doubt the iPhone won't be a widely used universal remote. We'll see. More power to 'em if I'm wrong.

 

[Ted Todorov]

I think we should revive this thread once a year -- it is fascinating to see our predictions from a year ago on what the killer apps for the iPhone would be. Maybe the mods can change the subject to something like "iPhone Killer App. Prediction Thread"

Anyway: A year later the answer is clear: casual gaming is THE killer app on the iPhone right now. Though the biggest killer app is the iTunes App store itself -- with 1 billion plus downloads and every player in the market desperate to come up with their own.

OK, now for the moment of truth: lets look at our predictions and see how we fared -- here is me (post #17 of this thread, April 13th 2008 -- 13 months ago):

Over all not too bad. I did foresee the casual gaming thing -- more people on the NYC subway play games on the iPhone/iPod Touch than all other devices combined. The barcode scanning app I had in mind never materialized (although ironically it was one of the first things being touted on Android). However it didn't have to: SnapTell removes the need for barcode scanning -- you just take a picture of the product and it ids it without fail. And Shazam just listens to the song to ID it.

I will claim full credit for the book reader prediction -- the iPhone clearly has a far bigger share of book reader users than the Kindle, with Stanza downloads in the millions (and it is no surprise that Amazon now has a Kindle app on the iPhone AND bought Stanza).

That brings me to the my most argued about prediction, the Universal Remote. This has been a VERY mixed bag. On the one hand anything competing with the Prontos of the world has not materialized. There is ONE iPhone based universal remote from Europe - iRedTouch | iRed2 plus some still in the vaporware stage that is being developed in Canada (the NY Times wrote about the Canadians a few weeks back). I expect to see way more movement in the coming 12 months as iPhone 3.0 API has the hooks for external hardware integration.

On the other hand, HTPC remotes are here now. For me the combination of Apple iTunes Remote, plus Rowmote (Front Row/Apple DVD Player, etc), Poke Eye (EyeTV) have replaced my hardware remotes, are far superior, and get used on a daily basis. And FWIW I suspect that at this point there are more installs of Remote out there than all Harmonies and Prontos ever sold. Knowing how good iPhone remotes are, I remain convinced that they will end up conquering the Universal Remote world -- it just may take 2 or 3 more years. My other personal killer app -- Big Stopwatch. I will never use a stopwatch or kitchen timer again.

Did not see coming: Twitter and Facebook front end apps. This was partly due to the fact that those two social networks have since exploded in importance.

Finally new predictions for iPhone 3.0 over the next 12 months:
Turn by turn GPS -- obvious, but will have a big impact when it finally gets released. Audio/Video software based on the improved API and iPhone 3.0 better camera hardware. An explosion of hardware accessories. Increased importance for VOIP/IM software when event notification finally gets switched on. If the iTablet (Newton/iBook/iTouch -- bonus points for getting the name right) gets released, the new app explosion will reach supernova proportions with media consumption and versions of various desktop apps (office suites, etc.) leading the way.

So, step right up, and fess up to how well you did last year, and step up to make new fearless predictions for the next 12 months!

 

[Joseph Bolus]

I'm predicting that by Fall one of the most popular accessories for the iPhone will be a portable TI Pico Projector. These pocket-sized, battery driven devices, which use three high-powered LEDs to energize a DLP chip, will be used with the new iPhone for on-the-go Powerpoint presentations and/or to view rented Widescreen movies. Portable 16:9 screens in both 45" and 65" dimensions will be available with the projector.