Where have all the iPhones gone? (1 Viewer)

[ErichH]

That Is Interesting Isn't It

Every day the count goes higher and higher for new countries slated to get the 3G. Many are saying June/July in their press statements. Apple inks deal with bla bla - sounds like a ho bunch a shippin' gonna happen soon. Hmm?
Do we get one first?
Of course this tease could end with a restock in the next week. Or they could just let that silence build a little longer.

 

[Yee-Ming]

Can't remember the details off-hand, but a local telco announced that it will be selling iPhones towards the end of the year. Buried in the press release was mention of 3G.

What's interesting is that one newspaper article mentioned that the phones will not be locked (the local regulatory authority doesn't allow it), and it speculates that Apple will not be getting a cut of telco revenue, unlike their existing business model with AT&T et al, again because in the local market this has never been necessary nor done.

 

[Parker Clack]

They are already testing this with restaurants in California. You scan the bar code on the door of the restaurant it gives you the menu, special of the day, etc. Next up. Ordering from your iPhone for carry out.

 

[Christ Reynolds]

This idea is quite interesting to me. I hope current iPhone users are not left out in the cold with new apps, when the new iPhone comes out. I love mine, and I hope to have it for a long time.

CJ

 

[ErichH]

Another tidbit - AppleInsider | AT&T now showing "iPhone Black" model in device listing

 

[Patrick_S]

I’m as big a fan of the iPhone as anyone but realistically the phone will have little impact on any of the markets mentioned above.

A portable bar code scanner? That’s probably doable with the addition of a plug-in hardware module but what market is that aiming for, commercial or consumer? The commercial segment is already dominated by far superior products that the iPhone will never be able to compete against on a large scale and the consumer market just doesn’t seem practical.

The universal remote market? Again another market dominated by competitors who have products that would make it difficult for the iPhone to compete against. It would also require the customer to purchase some sort of bridge product which doesn’t seem to likely to happen.

Book reading? The screen is far too small.

The iPhone is a great product and I think it will continue to be one but the markets above are not ones that are likely to ever be dominated by the iPhone.

 

[Ted Todorov]

Yes, the markets mentioned above are already dominated by entrenched players. They are also tiny. How many people have universal remotes, vs. the cheapo that came in the box with the TV or player? I use the "flesh and blood" test -- if I don't know a single real (not on the internet) person who uses product X, then product X is a tiny niche. Universal remote -- check. On the other hand I know dozens of people who own iPhones. Half the people in my office have one. The guy working in the mail room has one. When good universal remote apps come out on the iPhone, a much larger pool of people will start using them. The original, dedicated universal remotes are likely to remain more powerful and their users will scoff at the iPhone versions, and stick to theirs. It won't matter -- they will stay a tiny niche, the iPhone will have everyone else. And then the die hards will start migrating too once they figure out that it's pretty neat not only to control your entertainment system, but stream from it to the iPhone when you're too lazy to go to the living room.

So far as barcode scanning -- no, I'm not talking about dongles -- I'm talking about using the iPhone camera as a scanner, just as Delicious Library and DVDPedia use iSights as barcode scanners. And again, no, I'm not talking about replacing existing applications for professional scanners in warehouses -- I'm talking about new apps for a much wider audience.

Screen too small to read books? Absolutely. But nobody (flesh & blood test: FAIL) has a Kindle. People have iPhones and cary them at all times. If eBooks for the iPhone are available, *some* iPhone users will read them, which will be more that the all Kindle & Sony eBook reader people put together.

Stop looking at things through the prism of what exists now. Start imaging the the possibilities that don't exist now, but with an iPhone + SDK, will.

 

[DaveF]

There's no money in universal remote control applications and consumer barcode scanners. Apple (I assert) doesn't care about such things.

The money's in corporate market, and Apple's gunning for the Blackberry set.

But, and I'll contradict myself here, there's money in the (currently decaying) PDA market. There may only be 20 people in the world that actually catalog their DVDs with a barcode scanner, but there's many, many sets of 20 people that will buy whatever their niche product is. Enabling developers to sell many small apps to many small sets of people is good business. And in the midst of all that, there will be some major, killer apps.

Though they won't say it, Apple's rebuilding the PDA.

And you may be right, Ted, about gaming. Some people also believe this will be a dominant game system, bringing a novel and accessible system to the masses, as the Wii has. I don't see it: I doubt you can have a robust game system with absolutely no hard buttons. But my doubts are probably a good sign that it will be a smash hit

The looming Apps market, speculation on $200 discount, and impending hardware refresh is tough for me. I've got some serious iPhone lust, and these changes could make it exactly what I want. Good thing my wife manages the budget...

 

[Ted Todorov]

Did I say that Apple is necessarily going to be developing these apps? I agree, Apple probably could care less about universal remotes or barcodes or fill in the blanks -- but third party developers will be all over it.

And when I'm talking about barcode scanning I certainly don't mean DVDs or stuff you'll be doing at home. I don't want to spell it out -- use your imagination. (and considering there are 4 different apps on the Mac that do it -- Readerware, DVDPedia, Delicious Library, and I forget the last one, it's gotta be more than 30 poeople, else you'd have a bunch of starving developers).

And no, Apple is isn't reviving the PDA. They are inventing the useful/usable hand held computer. Ultimately, your 10th gen iPocket will have completely replaced your desktops/ laptops/ etc. Sure you'll have big screens, and terabytes of storage, and maybe for the old-fashioned who don't like that funky speech recognition stuff, keyboards. But it all will be controlled from the little thing that stays in your pocket, and there won't be a central computer as such. Your iPocket will be more than any computer is today, so I don't think of it as a PDA.

 

[Ted Todorov]

To get back slightly on topic -- has the iPhone sold out from AT&T stores as well? Maybe the release is happening on June 15th, but Apple is killing its own supply early to force the AT&T supply to go bone dry by then as well?

That or maybe Foxconn or whoever actually manufactures iPhones is working 24/7 manufacturing a gargantuan order of 3G iPhones and has no leftover capacity for any more of the current model.

 

[Patrick_S]

I think I'm looking at this far more realistically then you are but feel free to bump this thread each and every time the iPhone has reach dominance in any of these markets.

I love your "flesh and blood" test, here is my tally.

Univerisal Remote - Check. I know over a dozen of people who have Universal Remotes and most the models are in the $100 or more range. None of these people would be considered high end HT users. The biggest hurdles that iPhone will have to overcome are the need for the consumer to have to go out and purchase a bridge device and second the lack of tactile buttons.

eBook readers - Two Kindle owners and four Sony owners.

As for the bar code reading market, we'll have to wait and see but don't hold your breath for any application that drives iPhone sales.

 

[Sam Posten]

I still havent figured out why Apple hasnt vigorously pursued putting novels on the iTunes store. Magazines could be a big seller too.

 

[ErichH]

Universal Remote?

How bout a higher quality phone?

I hear the crop circle chip didn't make it into the final design - bummer

 

[Patrick_S]

Have you seen the price of audiobooks? That explains why they aren't pushing ebooks along with the fact that audiobooks are a more natural fit for the iPod.

 

[Ted Todorov]

Patrick -- obviously your circle of friends/acquaintances is more technophile than mine , but ---

To me the acid test for something like the Kindle is the NYC subway. When the gen. 1 & 2 iPods started popping up all over the IRT I knew it would be a big hit. Heck, you could find old posts of mine here predicting it (I'm too lazy to search). The day I counted more white earbuds than all the walkmen/discmen/etc. combined, I knew it would be HUGE.

Up till now I have not seen a single Kindle in the subway. Not even one Kindle, ever. I couldn't swear about the Sony reader as I might not so readily recognize it, but no one uses a Kindle on the subway, which should be the first place you'd see it if it was going to be any kind of hit. Meanwhile iPhones are second only to Blackberries on the subway (as indeed the sales numbers attest).

Anyway, why argue about the future -- it will come soon enough, and we'll all see how it turns out.

 

[DaveF]

Exactly, the PDA, revived. I say tomato, you say potato.

 

[Ted Todorov]

I'd love to take you up on the offer -- but you aren't based in NYC, are you?

I don't doubt that Harmony One is a far better remote than the iPhone could ever be, or that the Kindle is a far, far better book reader than the iPhone could ever be. But, I think that a functional remote on the iPhone could end up being more popular. Who needs one or five or ten more different dedicated devices -- all about the same size/shape -- be they remotes or book readers or garage openers, when you always have an iPhone in your pocket anyway?

I'm not saying that anyone is going to go: Hum, I need a Universal remote -- should I get a Harmony or an iPhone. But when someone ALREADY has an iPhone, they might choose to download the remote control software from the iTunes store rather than buy a Harmony. And people who don't have an iPhone, might be more inclined to buy one because they've heard that it can replace 10 different other devices. A HT aficionado would stick to the Harmony. But there are 100 times more casual users than there are aficionados.

 

[DaveF]

I agree with the sentiment that there will be some unexpected small app for the iPhone that will take the world by storm. But I'm certain it won't be a universal remote control program*. (and if I'm wrong, you can point it out in big red letters in a few months )

The iPhone is pointless to me until SplashID is available on it. That's my killer app. But it's a niche item and won't sell iPhones alone. But having the small killer app for every nutter on the planet is a killer app

*Casual users aren't going to invest the effort programming a universal remote requires. And I don't see iPhone users letting the family juggle their iPhone during Must-See-TV to change channels. And since it's not a dedicated remote -- it leaves when the owner makes a call, it's not very usable for the family. Finally, it lacks a feature all universal remotes have: learning. The iPhone has no IR input, right, so you can't learn missing remote codes. There will be a remote app and people will play with it for a day, and then forget about it -- just like 10 years ago with Palm PDAs. ("This has all happened before and will happen again", as they say on BSG)

 

[ErichH]

Meanwhile, on topic

Apple iPhone 8GB for $249, 16GB for $349 - dealmac.com

 

[Ted Todorov]

I have a feeling that we need to stop arguing over this, as our experience gap is causing us to talk past each other -- I've never used a universal remote, and it sounds like you haven't used an iPhone.

I'll try one last time anyway: the way I see an iPhone Universal remote -- it wouldn't be programmable or capable of learning -- thus it would be way, way easier for Johnny Q. Public to use. Presets for every remote/device under the universe would be available for download online, or as templates through the iTunes Store. The iPhone U-remote vendor could go in either direction with a razor/blade sales model: give away the program and charge for the templates, or sell the program and give away the templates.

You are right though that the lack of IR is a big problem -- but not due to a learning deficiency but because you need IR to control devices that expect an IR remote signal. The only way around that is to have a separate little box mounted in front of your equipment that translates WiFi or Bluetooth into IR. That, or in the future all HT equipment will be equipped with with WiFI or Bluetooth just as entire airliners are being equipped with iPod docks now...