What will be the biggest flop of 2004? (1 Viewer)

[Steven Larson]

While watching "In Theaters" on INHD2 tonight, I saw the Garfield trailer for the first time....and it looks absolutely awful. Other than the okay Christmas cartoon from many years ago, I can't imagine anyone would have nostalgia for a CG Garfield.

They showed "Soul Plane" as well, and it looks like a stink bomb...but since it is likely a small budget flick, it may actually make money.

"King Arthur" looks totally tepid.

I hope Alien vs Predator does well....but all I have seen is a teaser trailer.

 

[David_Blackwell]

Riddick will do well. Garfield will bomb. Alien Vs. Predator will perform. I think Collateral might bomb or slightly successful (some Micheal Mann movies have bombed no matter how good they were- Ali and The Insider weren't really raking in the dough) due to competition from other movies around that time fo the movie season.

 

[Ernest Rister]

"Other than the okay Christmas cartoon from many years ago, I can't imagine anyone would have nostalgia for a CG Garfield."

It's not about nostalgia. It's about taking your kids to the movies. There isn't a lot of new family films on the slate, parents are going to say, "Oh, look, a Garfield movie. You want to see the movie with the kitty, Becky?" And that's that. Like I said, critic proof. Bad trailer or not, it's not going to matter. That film will open solid, no way it flops outright.

As for Riddick doing well -- I think its going to be the Tomb Raider 2 of the summer.

Catwoman has alienated the character's fan base, and so I expect that to also underperform.

 

[Jason Harbaugh]

Just got back from the Troy midnight showing with a packed audience and they were all quiet for all of the trailers (The Day After Tomorrow, King Arthur, Ocean's 12, Riddick, The Manchurian Candidate) until the very last one, Catwoman. Right when it ended it was followed with not one but many very loud boo's. Doesn't look good.

 

[Kevin Grey]

I agree that it will likely do decently but as far as family films go- it opens the week after *the* kid film of the summer, Harry Potter 3. I wouldn't be surprised if Harry Potter's second weekend gross is bigger than Garfield's opening. Shrek 2 should still be potent at that time too.

 

[DonRoeber]

I'm betting that I-Robot will tank.

 

[Malcolm R]

People don't blindly support family films. If they did there'd be a lot more of them. The reason there are so few is because the audience generally doesn't show up. Not even the Disney brand is guaranteed success anymore.

 

[Jeff Adams]

As far as family movies go, I actually think that Garfield will not do that bad. Of course it's not going to bring in Harry Potter or Shrek 2 numbers but I still think it will do okay. I plan on taking my kids to see it unless it gets the kind of reviews that Cat in the Hat got.

I am going to see Riddick because I loved Pitch Black but that is one that I think will tank at the box office. The people I talk to don't even know what Pitch Black is let alone the next movie in the series.

 

[Malcolm R]

I loved PB, but other than a character named "Riddick," this film seems to have nothing to do with PB. I don't think it can be called a sequel.

I still haven't decided if I want to bother to see it or not.

 

[Jeff Adams]

I think it is actually a prequel to Pitch Black. Either way, you are right though,it could stand alone as a single movie instead of a prequel or sequel but I still don't think it will make over 45 million. Hopefully I am wrong because I think it looks really good.

 

[Kevin Grey]

I think the prequel idea was nixed early on. Everything I've heard is that Chronicles does take place after the events of Pitch Black.

Considering that they aren't playing up the Pitch Black angle in marketing at all, I don't think the relative success of PB will really play role in Riddick. People who've seen PB and recognize the character will get the conection and others will just assume its a new sci-fi franchise.

If they titled it PB2: Chronicles of Riddick- that would be a problem because people might actively avoid it under the idea "I haven't seen/heard of the original so there's no point in seeing the sequel first."

 

[Chad R]

Riddick is a sequel, taking place many years after Pitch Black with the little girl from the first film grown up and playing a large role. They're not pushing Pitch Black in the trailers for the sequel, but they are adding the tag, The Chronicles of Riddick to the new video release of the first film.

However, I'd look for this film to fizzle. I just don't think that Pitch Black carries enough of a cult fanbase to drive any sequel, the trailers are very unimpressive, and the timing of the release is bad. I also hear that Diesel is in negotiations for the third Fast and Furious after forgoing the that franchise for Riddick. He's obviously lost confidence in it himself. This is my vote for flop of the summer.

 

[Chris]

Been said before, but I think _Sky Captain_ will outright bomb. Catwoman will not break $100M.

(Of course, my surprise "hit" of the summer is "Bourne Supremacy"

 

[Ernest Rister]

"The reason there are so few is because the audience generally doesn't show up."

I don't know what box office stat magazine you're reading, but realtive to cost, family films have done *extremely* well the last few years - why? There is always a market...if you give people a reason to go. "Teacher's Pet", no. Live-action Garfield voiced by Bill Murray?

Clink clink
clank clank
easy money in the bank.