Things looking ominous for BOTH formats? (1 Viewer)

[Rob_Walton]

When DVD came out there was similar resistance from LaserDisc owners who felt their investment was being undermined. I'm guessing many of the posters to this forum have substantial DVD collections and are used to thinking they have the "best" version of a given title. Resentment is probably to be expected.

As to the man in the street not having his HD TV set up correctly, I've no doubt that's sometimes correct. Consider then that these people have been willing to pay a nice chunk of change for a less than stella PQ enhancement, and have convinced themselves this is "HD". Once the marketing blitz hits it's mark it shouldn't take much to convince the same people to splash out on one of these new players which actually will offer a PQ improvement.

 

[RobertR]

Based on what? In store demos from the 19 year old sales bots at places like Best Buy? I've heard of such a demo being hooked up via s-video! Not promising.

 

[Rob_Walton]

Just because one format has been poorly represented in stores doesn't mean the other will be as well. Sony have their own stores of course, as do Panasonic.

 

[Sami Kallio]

I've paid more for a mono VHS player back in the day. A stereo player was later on my purchase list since to me it made a difference. For the average user back then it didn't because they were playing it back on their TV's mono speaker, not from a 2 channel stereo.

Since then, multi-channel has become the standard and even some of the average users are using it. The same will happen with video format, it will evolve into HD but like with all the advances in home theatre it will take time. One format will fail but not both, HD-DVD has already shown what it can do and is more already known that the previous HD home mediums so there is no going back now. I am certain one format will survive but I have no opinion which one it is going to be.

I do own HD-A1 and I think it was a great purchase but I did not marry the format by buying one player. For what I paid for it, it will pay it back within the time the format war is over and it is time to purchase another player.

 

[RobertR]

But 99% or more of the people won't be viewing demos in those stores. They'll be viewing them in places like BB and CC, and just because it's BD, that doesn't magically make people in those places any better at running demos.

 

[Dave Mack]

I don't mean to sound negative. I am ALL for an HD disc format. IMHO. it's totally worth the $$$ for the Tosh. I think BR is too steep now, but that's just me. I really wish there wasn't this stupid format war. I'd buy in now in a second if I only knew that this wouldn't turn into another D-Theater. Like I said in another thread, I was a die-hard Beta owner. I remember as a 15 year old lining up at Crazy eddie to buy ST;Wrath of Khan on FS Beta in 82' for $39.95 which is how much in 2006 adjusted $$$? For a 15 year old back then, that was some $$$! And it was a HUGE price break at the time! I remeber the avg. movie on Beta to be like $79.99 and up! I spent $600 on my first DVD player back in '98. I've owned about 6 altogether so I've spent some coin. My 55" Mits Diamond was $3500 with ext. warranty.
So $500 is a GREAT entry price point for HDdvd. $1000? Nope. (And the Sony won't even play CD's?!?! What are you kidding me?) Not with an uncertain future. I think my gf is amazed that I haven't jumped in yet. Every few months I buy a new guitar as well. She just shrugs. I feel that the holdout, whether intentional or not of REALLY killer titles like KONG, BATMAN, the LOTR films is making me hesitant. I'm not gonna spend $500 to watch POTA, Constantine or The Rundown. Sorry. Give me The Matrix, Moulin Rouge, Blade Runner, the ALIEN flicks, Close Encounters, 2001...
And with WB releasing old 1080i transfers bobbed to 540P, (sorry, my OPPO plays native PAL dvd's at 576P) I am more wary. I will commit when the companies pushing the new formats really get their act together. Release some MUST HAVE titles. Not the "well, the movie sucks but it's so sharp and detailed!" I'm sorry but sharper and more detailed crap is still crap. Remember the line in CHRISTINE? "You can't polish a turd."
And for C's sake have a rep go to these stores and make sure the displays are properly set up and the salespeople at least SOMEWHAT informed.

Ok, rant over.

Just my 2 cents....

 

[Rob_Walton]

I agree that few of the early movies are all that compelling. Maybe the Terminator flicks, and Batman Begins when it comes, but for the most part studios seem to be trying to offload titles in the hope early adopters will buy them having few other options. That doesn't help the quick spread of either format, though with Sony having direct control of a studio it seems likely they'll try to release a few decent titles sooner rather than later.

BTW are you going to buy into the Blade Runner release this Fall or do you have the will power to hold out until the following year? Right now I'm definitely waiting, but nearer the time I suspect my determination not to be suckered will start to waver!

Just having a demo of any description would probably be an advantage, if all the posts about stores lacking any HD DVD presence are to be believed. Of course early adopters tend to be the people who adopt formats early on in their life cycle, so the 1% is all the CE companies need to be aiming for short term. Longer term the format will take off through similar avenues to DVD; word of mouth; seeing friends' players; Blu-ray stickers on all new HD TVs; and adverts in print media insinuating women are more likely to sleep with you if you own a BD player. You know, the usual tricks. In store demos only serve to up the "wow" factor, and need not be as poorly handled as the Tosh events. Companies do send representatives to stores to educate the sales staff so there's no reason they can't also calibrate these new devices.

 

[Dave Mack]

What was interesting was we went to a standalone MAGNOLIA out here in Emeryville and I asked to see an HDdvd player. All they had was the high-end Tosh. and they had it displayed on a SONY! But the salesguy had to switch it over from Cable HD. So if I hadn't asked, I wouldnt have seen any player at all. Kinda hard to promote the format this way, yes? No signs, no actual display. Just a unit at $749 hooked up to a SONY set and not even on screen! The cable HD looked noticeably less impressive so if they were trying to show off the way the set that costs several grand looks, you'd think they'd have the best signal displayed. Which at this time is the Hddvd demo disc. I even joked that they had the Tosh. hooked up to the "competition". Now this was a relatively hi-end store and even then I had to ask so the avg. person is probably clueless going into a BB or (GASP!) a Wal-mart!

 

[RobertR]

That's assuming people think there's a big enough difference from DVD to buy into it. Marketing tricks CANNOT make people buy something they don't want, else the Edsel, New Coke, minidisc, SACD, etc. would have all been successful.

 

[Chris S]

I'm not sure I understand how the studios could be nervous. If they can unload another version of The Rundown or Dukes of Hazard (films that will arguably not be making them much more $$ on SD DVD) why would they be nervous? Shouldn't the hardware manufactures be the ones concerned? They seem to have a lot more to lose than studios. Studios already have the content all they have to do is drop is onto a disc (granted I understand there is a little more effort involved than that). Where as the manufactures have entire production lines and R&D costs to recoup.

 

[RobertR]

It would cost the studios money to launch a new format. That includes royalty payments to the hardware companies (hence the information about renegotiating with BD). Wouldn't you be nervous about putting a product on the shelves you're not sure many people will buy?

 

[Randy Korstick]

Robert all your points could be made about the DVD format when it came out as well. Many People with big Laserdisc collections secretly did not want it to suceed, I know I was initially one of them but changed after a few months of seeing the DVD advantage.
In 1997 when DVD came out J6P could not see much of a difference between DVD and VHS or understand why DVD's were so complicted and just did not start playing like VHS tapes do. It wasn't until 4-5 years after DVD's launch that they took the plunge and not because they thought there was a big difference but because the prices for DVD and VHS players became the same and DVD forced VHS out of most stores by that time. The same model will work with HD format discs as well and will likely take 4-5 years to become mainstream.
One difference is that I have a few J6P friends and many J6P family members and all of them can tell the difference in HD and SD but not many of them can tell that much difference between DVD, VHS and Cable TV. Brand new movies look great on DVD but they can also look great on Satellite TV too. DVD has feature advantages over VHS they can see but not the WoW! factor that HD Discs have over DVD on properly calibrated sets.

 

[Rob_Walton]

Where I come from marketing is all about convincing people to buy things they not only don't need, but they probably don't really want either! That's what the ad men are all about. They've convinced millions to buy HD TVs to watch (often dodgy) HD cable broadcasts, instead of just continuing to use DVDs on their old SD TVs. The difference from DVD to HD DVD/BD is even more pronounced so there seems no reason to expect a problem.

BTW minidisc was fairly successful, just not in the US.

 

[Rob_Walton]

:: slaps forehead ::

It's as if some of these places just don't want to make a sale! Incredible.

My Dad was in a store (John Lewis I think) at Cribbs Causeway (shopping mall outside Bristol) and spent a while chatting with a Hitachi rep who was down for the day to inform the staff about their current and upcoming products. I wonder if more of the CE companies don't already understand the lack of knowledge on the sales floor, and do something about it. Especially in shopping chains they own, such as the Sony and Panny stores.

 

[RobertR]

As I pointed out, if it were true that all you need to be successful is marketing, then the Edsel, New Coke, the midiskirt, mindisc (as you said, a failure in the U.S.) would have all succeeded. But they didn't. Why? Because people weren't interested in them. Marketing can create an initial "buzz", but it CANNOT 'manufacture" what people like. The BEST it can do is successfully exploit what appeals to them. It can't MAKE appeal out of nothing.

 

[RobertR]

How often does the average person see a "properly calibrated set" under good conditions? Less than 1% of the time, I'd say. They WON'T see one at BB, CC, Target, Walmart, etc., which is where almost EVERYONE is going to be checking out HD.

 

[Dave Mack]

One thing the jump from VHS to DVD had, (and remember S-VHS? That never took off. I bought one but how many films were even released on S-Vhs? I think I remember maybe Raiders of the lost ark or something. So that tanked. Granted you could record on it but the idea of a higher res. VHS format didn't interest anybody. ..) was that the media was easier to use. Like a CD, there were chapters, no re-winding, less wearout. So even though PQ was better, many people jumped in for the convenience. My sister for example was content with VHS. I had to buy them their first DVD player! They have a 25" RCA set with ONLY a coax input so they even needed that RF modulator splitter thingy from Radio Shack for $25.00. To her, DVD was more of a convenience upgrade then a jump in PQ.
Now, my sister is not some luddite, she is the president of a New England ad company and makes Tons of $$$. But to her, watching a movie just isn't that important as far as optimal PQ goes. I think that MANY people fall into that camp. The hi-def formats will NOT replace standard DVD in my opinion. They will exist side by side like Laserdisc did. And it's very true if most people's exposure to either HDdvd or Blu-ray is gonna be Best buy, the formats might not even last that long.
Just my 2 cents.

 

[Chris S]

Robert, I see where you're coming from now and I suppose I'm just a different businessman. I'm more of the "take a risk" style person, thus my bleeding edge interest in HD-DVD/BD. From my point of view the studios have very little to risk in releasing the titles they currently have available. These titles are for the most part

1. not likely to increase studio profits again anytime soon (i.e. dead property)
2. likely do not cost a lot in the way of talent fees
3. are relatively recent releases so as to appear "new"
4. not likely to make the studio "look bad" if the product doesn't sell (i.e. blame it on the film)

So if I were to place myself in the role of the studio exec I would have little concern about releasing these titles in a new format or via a new distribution method (as with the bit torrent downloads which Warner is currently experimenting). I suppose it all comes down to the level or risk one is willing to take.