Things looking ominous for BOTH formats? (1 Viewer)

[Lew Crippen]

On the topic, I don’t believe that it is time to sound the death knell for either or both HD formats. One format has only been out for a very brief time and the other has not yet had its commercial debut. I thank RobertR for his post, a it was interesting reading, but just reading the very first sentence “Spoke to someone in the industry earlier today and was bemoaning the poor release for HD-DVD and the never-ending delays for BD-DVD. …” is reason enough to question if the information contained in the post has validity.

First, the information is anonymous, secondly it is emotive, using words such as “bemoaning” and thirdly, if not inaccurate, at least misleading when referring to the “poor release of HD-DVD and “never-ending delays for BD-DVD”. At least the reviews I have read about the quality of HD-DVD (both audio & video) from those who are qualified to judge (e.g. Robert Harris) have been glowing. This is not to deny that some aspects of the first player are less than perfect and could be improved (the remote and load time spring to mind), or that improvements are not being made via firmware updates as experience and consumer feedback provides information, but in the end, critical users are thrilled with the result.

As for the phrase, “never-ending delays”, that is untrue unless one believes that Blu-Ray will never be released, and even granting a bit of poetic license, it is quite clear that the delays seen so far are pretty much in accordance with most releases of new electronic products.

All of this makes me think that the industry source has either been misquoted, quoted out of context or is not really very much of an insider.

Points 1 & 2 tend to conflict with each other.

Point 3 has merit, but that is pretty much business as usual

An insider in the industry would understand this is not a Sony-only issue as the last sentence indicates.


All-in-all, after analyzing the post, it is likely a fraud and certainly not accurate.

It may well be that both formats (or only one) will only satisfy a niche market for some considerable time. But that is a far cry from doom and disaster.

 

[RobertR]

I disagree that any emotiveness in the first sentence makes the purported inside information suspect. The two are unrelated, as unrelated as an emotive statement about oil prices followed by a quite reasonable industry explanation for it. So I consider that point irrelevant to the information provided.

I also disagree that points 1 and 2 conflict with each other. Why shouldn’t nervousness about BD and sales of HD titles and players in general affect the strength of the studios commitment to releasing titles? That makes sense.

The focus on Sony in the last sentence tells me that the studios have been banking on the PS3 to give a big boost to BD title sales, and any problems with it make them nervous. Again, not unreasonable.

I agree that the quality of the Toshiba player is quite good (Austan’s silly claims notwithstanding) and that people are very pleased with the quality of HDDVD titles released. However, it’s perfectly natural for people to want to know how well sales are going, and there’s reason for concern here. That simply reinforces the plausibility of the information given. Now it may be that BD will be promoted and marketed much better, but it’s an unknown to people, and that makes them nervous. After all, it's not just the player and title quality that people are interested in, but how well sales are going. People don't want to buy into something if it looks like it may fail.

 

[Larry Sutliff]

CC has the RCA HD DVD player on their website, which is just a rebadged Toshiba player. CC doesn't sell Toshiba DVD players for some reason.

 

[JohnRice]

It was supposed to be out a month or two from now and it isn't out yet. If that doesn't constitute endless delays, I don't know what does.

 

[Alf S]

So does anyone know the exact sales figures to date for HD hardware and software?

 

[Steve Schaffer]

I actually do own an HDA1, have had it since mid-April. It's boot-up time is about what one would expect from a PC, not a normal dvd player. As for loading time for the discs that's pretty slow too, but no slower than my upconverting Sony in the bedroom, but slower than most any other dvd player I"ve experienced.

Prior to the software update it stuttered on 2 movies out of the 6 or so I've tried--a rental copy of Jarhead and a purchased copy of Van Helsing both of which are known problem discs with the old software. With the new software VH (the worse of the 2) plays flawlessly.

I can easily see the difference in pq between HD-DVD and upconverted SD, what I tried to state in my previous post was that many non-ht enthusiasts whose sets aren't adjusted properly etc. may not see enough difference.

The $500 price I paid for my player is exactly what I paid for my first dvd player back in 1998, and that fact clicked in my mind as a justification for buying it. I am an early-ish adopter but not wealthy enough to go for the 1k bd player as I too am going thru some midlife career changes.

The player itself is physically quite robustly built, I don't expect any hardware related problems with it.

Ideally I'd like to see both formats co-exist for a few years at least with all studios supporting both formats, or at least a sub-$250 or so universal player within 3 years.

My fear is that with both formats splitting a smallish segment of the market player prices will never drop the way dvd and vcr prices did and it will remain a high-priced niche product as LD did for many years.

The PS3 and upcoming XBox 360 HD-DVD drive may go a long way toward making the HD disc formats mainstream enough to survive.

 

[Dan Rudolph]

There will definitely be a PC market for higher capacity discs. That shoudl be enough to get one or the other adopted.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Since, last month, I've been thinking the same thing.





Crawdaddy

 

[Austan]

Its funny how when people talk about Blu-Ray they call it Sony's format... Why? because that the public perception...

When almost every review of the Toshiba HD DVD players has something negative to say (which I call poor quality) don't you think Toshiba has to deal with those issues? Are these reviewers submitting updates to reflect the firmware update?

My point still remains the same...
"First out the gate is also a double edge sword. You get all the complements as well as all the complaints. Video/Audio wise the complements have been great. Boot up times and lockups have been the complaints."
"Being first out, makes you the target for every criticism."
"Toshiba is left to answering the complaints."

I've always stated that video/audio quality of HD DVD was great.

The "average consumer" shops at Circuit City and Best Buy where the salesman have no clue... Their only other source of information is reviews either from magazines or websites. If you take a look at the links I posted earlier. Thats what the "average consumer" is reading, they are not reading blogs/forums where owner's are posting post firmware fixes. Can you image the Best Buy salesman trying to explain to the consumer that they have to spend $500 then download a firmware so their brand new HD DVD player wont "crash".

Everyone's definition of a word/phrase can be different. If you bought a brand new car that cost at least 3x more than the average car and it had a recall 2 months after you bought it, wouldnt you question its quality control? As long as a person defines his word/phrase, you have a reference point to go by. If you dont agree with their definition then you can re-define the word/phrase.

I've never said that the upcoming BD player wont have the same issues. I've said that they dont exist so Toshiba has to answer those issues.

All we know for now is:
1) HD DVD is available today at $500-$800
2) Toshiba is the only manufacture of HD DVD player
3) Sales volume is low due to either supply, cost or low interest
4) Reviews has been great for audio/video but "less then perfect" on other issues
5) Only real news about Blu-Ray is constant delays

IMHO: Thats not good news for the HD media in general but more bad news for HD DVD because its here and now.

Question that will be addressed after Blu-Ray launch:
1) will higher price be a turnoff
2) audio/video quality and "poor quality" issues
3) name brand loyalties (can other CE manufactures sell their products?)
4) sales volume

 

[Ryan-G]

I'm having a hard time with this.

Refering to the OP

1. Why is it that the Players are being moved back, from Non-Sony manufacturers, with the software titles following weeks later? Further, IIRC, the original delay was caused by the AACS(Or whatever the copyright comittee is called) still debating some of the Blu-Ray DRM.

2. There aren't any changes with PS3 in regards to Movies, outside of the pricing, which they likely have been aware of for some time. Further, wasn't SACD vs DVD-A audio formats? Studios really didn't have anything to do with that debacle. Now pricing most certainly is a cause for concern, but that's the only change I've seen amongst the PS3 announcements.

3. I could see this one occuring, studios renegotiating that is.

I really don't see how MS can have an effect on this in any manner as far as Studios are concerned, MS has no foothold in the arguement short of the add-on HD-DVD Player, and I doubt it'll sell enough to change anyone's mind. Add-ons to consoles historically sell very poorly.

Microsoft just doesn't have any means to push one format over another. Dell maybe, Compaq and HP sure, but MS really doesn't have any negotiating position. Even the other companies are computer only, and it's the electronics manufacturers that really matter.

Unless they are offering Studios concessions later when MS's VoD takes off. But what Studio would bank on VoD taking off when the infrastructure isn't present for MS to serve it up, and isn't on the horizion, and there's no guarantee that MS can actually do it right.

I'll also point out, this is from AVS which seems to be rather anti-BR.

 

[RobertR]

And you measure this how? You saw pro HDDVD posts there? You’ve seen PLENTY of them here too. There are a LOT of pro BD posts there as well (just as there are here), including ones from David Boulet (who of course strongly supports BD). Rather than make a generalization about a forum (AVS is HARDLY monolithic on this issue), it’s much more useful to analyze individual POSTS.

 

[Glenn Overholt]

Just running my own current thoughts here.

I think that the HD sales are all screwed up right now just because Toshiba recalled every unit that was on the way to the stores - just to fix the bug.

Hopefully, when they get that fixed and reship them, they'll be ok.

Meanwhile, Sony it going through the same problem, except for the fact that they haven't shipped yet. They found a bug of some sort, and knowing a little about computer programming, then found a few more, and some of the bugs required the disks to be rerun.

In addition, their sales staff if trying to figure out a way to compete with the price on the Toshibas! Bet you - or anyone, that they have a $500 player in the works!

Meanwhile, the studios are pressuring Sony, and are probably threatening to jump ship! Hey, maybe this is the makings of a good movie!

Glenn

 

[Ryan-G]

Please note my use of the word "Seems", I did not say it "Is". That is the impression I've gotten from the forum, to be honest, and I'm not trying to flame, but I don't want to spend the time analyzing a message board I don't intend to post upon. I'll stick with my impression, which is directly fueled by all of the posts I read referencing AVS are almost all anti-BR, the exception being the thread referenced in the "BR impressions" thread here.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Actually, it did get delayed, the Samsung player was supposed to ship back in May and got delayed until June 25th.





Crawdaddy

 

[RobertR]

”Referencing” AVS? It sounds like you’ve never actually read anything on the forum but the referenced threads. If so, I’d say your “impression” is as well founded as basing an “impression” of HTF on posts “referencing” say, Rob HD’s posts. Judging the “bias” of a forum based not on a random selection of a dozen or so posts (out of many HUNDREDS) but instead chosen to highlight certain points makes no sense.

 

[Rob_Walton]

Being able to do something, and being willing to do that thing, are entirely different situations. In order to enjoy these new high def products (first audio and now AV) requires that the consumers purchase new systems to enjoy the added benefits. These are generally highly expensive purchases. A quick look at the paltry number of high end receivers being bought suggests there's no great market demand for next gen audio. On the other hand HD TVs have sold in their tens of millions already (before a genuine attempt at pre-packaged media was on the market) , so there clearly is a demand there. And as to price, it was always thus. Expensive at first: cheeper later. It's not stopped CD or DVD from taking off so why should it be a problem this time.

 

[RobertR]

This time people may not think it's a big enough difference (just as happened with SACD and DVDA).

 

[Rob_Walton]

Entirely different point. People are at least buying HD TVs which shows there's an interest in improved PQ. This is clearly a very different situation to next gen audio where there has been no indication of market interest. BTW how do you know that people are happy to watch DVDs on their expensive new TVs, and think they are already getting HD? It is just as likely they are watching what they currently have available, and will transition over to the new format once the marketing campaigns kick in.

 

[Dave Mack]

Good points all, but I want to throw in that I honestly can't tell you how many times I've been to friends' homes (the less tech-o-phile ones) or family members' and have seen a big, spankin' new HDTV and I would often be surprised at the lackluster PQ on many of these. Well, lo and behold, they were often still in torch mode with sharpness CRANKED! (Sharper is better, yes?) and they would have a really bottom level DVD player hooked up through composite video. They also thought that they were watching HD because the set was HD. Honest. I would tweak the set for them, they either couldn't tell the difference afterwards or had gotten so used to the Torch look that they thought calibrated it was "too dark" "not sharp enough" or not colorful enough". So convincing the average J6P to drop between $500 to $1000 on a player? Even $300? Not gonna happen IMHO.
People are already accidentally renting through netflix HDdvds by mistake thinking that they will work on their HD set and regular DVD player,

 

[RobertR]

Read some of the comments in this thread. What makes it ominous is that people feel this way on a site dedicated to home theater (let alone the general public)!

I'd say Dave Mack's experience is all too typical.