The official 83rd Academy Awards Nomination and Predictions Thread

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Ronald Epstein, Jan 25, 2011.

  1. Ronald Epstein

    Ronald Epstein Administrator
    Owner

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 1997
    Messages:
    46,211
    Likes Received:
    4,264
    Real Name:
    Ronald Epstein
    [​IMG]




    Best motion picture of the year

    • Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) A Protozoa and Phoenix Pictures Production
      Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers

    • The Fighter (Paramount) A Relativity Media Production
      David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers

    • Inception (Warner Bros.) A Warner Bros. UK Services Production
      Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers)

    • The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features) An Antidote Films, Mandalay Vision and Gilbert Films Production
      Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers

    • The King's Speech (The Weinstein Company) A See-Saw Films and Bedlam Production
      Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers

    • 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) An Hours Production
      Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers

    • The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) A Columbia Pictures Production
      Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceán Chaffin, Producers

    • Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) A Pixar Production
      Darla K. Anderson, Producer

    • True Grit (Paramount) A Paramount Pictures Production
      Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers

    • Winter's Bone (Roadside Attractions) A Winter's Bone Production
      Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers


    Performance by an actor in a leading role

    • Javier Bardem in "Biutiful" (Roadside Attractions)

    • Jeff Bridges in "True Grit" (Paramount)

    • Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network" (Sony Pictures Releasing)

    • Colin Firth in "The King's Speech" (The Weinstein Company)

    • James Franco in "127 Hours" (Fox Searchlight)


    Performance by an actor in a supporting role

    • Christian Bale in "The Fighter" (Paramount)

    • John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone" (Roadside Attractions)

    • Jeremy Renner in "The Town" (Warner Bros.)

    • Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right" (Focus Features)

    • Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech" (The Weinstein Company)


    Performance by an actress in a leading role
     
  2. TravisR

    TravisR Studio Mogul

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2004
    Messages:
    26,266
    Likes Received:
    3,559
    Location:
    The basement of the FBI building
    HOW COULD THEY LEAVE OFF... Just kidding.


    I like the nominations more than the awards because you get a nice array of quality movies rather than saying that X is better than Y.
     
  3. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
    Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 1999
    Messages:
    38,643
    Likes Received:
    416
    Kind of a weak year in terms of performances and films.

    Julianne Moore got the short end of the stick (meaning, she did a lot of heavy lifting in "TKAAR" and probably just missed out on a best supporting actress nomination. But that's the more competitive acting category, as I would be very surprised if Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, and Christian Bale did not win their categories.


    The main contest will be between "The Social Network" and "The King's Speech" for best picture, though I really hope Fincher gets the Directing oscar (not sure if Aronofsky has a shot this year, but I can't really see Hooper taking prize). Poor Christopher Nolan, got the Oscar snub for directing.


    I think Sorkin is a shoo-in for his adapted screenplay for "The Social Network", while the race is closer for original screenplay between "The King's Speech" and "The Kids are All Right". But was surprised to see no adapted screenplay nomination for "Black Swan" (I think it'd fall under adapted, but perhaps it would go towards original screenplay, but it wasn't going to beat "The Social Network" anyway).


    I'll be curious to see if Cinematography goes to Matthew Labatique for "Black Swan", or if Pfister or Deakins walks away with the oscar.


    Editing is a toss-up between "Black Swan" and "The Social Network". But "The King's Speech" could sneak in there. "Inception" got snubbed in this category, perhaps.


    While I think "Toy Story 3" gets best animated feature, "How to Train Your Dragon" was a better time at the movies for me.


    No love for Clint Mansell's work in "Black Swan", or Daft Punk in "Tron Legacy". (I've since been informed that neither had enough original musical content to the scoring, so there you go.)
     
  4. Ronald Epstein

    Ronald Epstein Administrator
    Owner

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 1997
    Messages:
    46,211
    Likes Received:
    4,264
    Real Name:
    Ronald Epstein
    My interest lies in the BEST ACTRESS categories which is

    sort of odd since I never have rooted for a particular actress

    in the past.


    I really didn't care much for Black Swan but I thought
    Natalie Portman gave an outstanding performance for which

    I hope she wins Best Actress.


    I wasn't big on True Grit either, but Hailee Steinfeld was

    remarkable. Unfortunately, they usually don't give Oscars

    to newcomers.


    Loved The King's Speech, thought the honor should go

    to Geoffrey Rush whose performance overshadowed that

    of Colin Firth.


    Best Picture? It will go to The Social Network though
    The Fighter and The King's Speech were marginally better,

    in my opinion.
     
  5. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
    Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 1999
    Messages:
    38,643
    Likes Received:
    416
    The old guard of the academy love a film like "The King's Speech", which is what "The Social Network" has to overcome to win BP.


    As far as I'm concerned, "The Fighter" was an incomplete film, so it's in the lower half of the top 10 nominees.
     
  6. Adam Lenhardt

    Adam Lenhardt Executive Producer

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2001
    Messages:
    16,876
    Likes Received:
    1,650
    Location:
    Albany, NY
    Judging by the way True Grit sprung forward, you've got to watch out for a sweep there.
     
  7. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
    Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 1999
    Messages:
    38,643
    Likes Received:
    416
    I'd be truly shocked if "True Grit" got any of the major awards (acting, directing, BP, editing).
     
  8. Walter Kittel

    Walter Kittel Producer

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 1998
    Messages:
    5,622
    Likes Received:
    530

    Based purely on my recollection, I would suggest that Supporting Actress is one of the most generous categories with regards to first time nominees and may bode well for Hailee Steinfeld. I have no statistics to back up that claim, just my impressions from watching the Awards through the years. (Tatum O'Neal - Paper Moon, Marissa Tomei - My Cousin Vinny, Anna Paquin - The Piano, Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls; were all first time nominees who won the Award for their respective years.)


    - Walter.
     
  9. Michael Elliott

    Michael Elliott Lead Actor

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2003
    Messages:
    7,419
    Likes Received:
    179
    Location:
    KY
    Real Name:
    Michael Elliott
    There's nothing here horribly bad like last year but I do think it shows that 2010 was a fairly weak year.

    The fact that TRUE GRIT is getting all this attention to me is somewhat funny but a director's nod over Christopher Nolan and INCEPTION? I didn't find INCEPTION to be the masterpiece that many did but its direction was certainly a lot more important factor than that in TRUE GRIT.


    The Supporting Actress does seem to be the big one. No Mila Kunis. No Moore. The Supporting Actor race is also missing the likes of Timberlake and Douglas who many thought was going to get noms. I don't mind Douglas missing out on WALL STREET as I thought his performance in SOLITARY MAN was a lot better.
     
  10. Aaron Silverman

    Aaron Silverman Executive Producer

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 1999
    Messages:
    10,702
    Likes Received:
    561
    Location:
    Florida
    Real Name:
    Aaron Silverman
    I have a lot of movie-watchin' to do. . .


    (Not to mention someone just spoiled the end of Inception. :( :( :( )
     
  11. mattCR

    mattCR Executive Producer
    Reviewer

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2005
    Messages:
    10,512
    Likes Received:
    385
    Location:
    Overland Park, KS
    Real Name:
    Matt
    Dissappointments:


    I admit, I didn't care for "The Fighter" nearly as much as the academy, and while I'm not surprised, just "eh". It's good to see Michelle Williams nominated for her fantastic turn in "Blue Valentine", which I thought was sensational. I have mixed feelings on how 10 nominated films will work out, just as I did last year. I think it divides the vote and makes it easier for a film to win without a real overwhelming feeling of "this is it" which is maybe what they want. On the plus side, while there is all this fury about The Social Network and The Kings Speech, I'd love to see the vote divided an an outsider win ( I will root for the "has no chance, but will be the film longest remembered from this year, TS3")


    Despite my dismiss of "The Fighter", Christian Bale should walk with his category, he was fantastic. How Mark Ruffalo got nominated over Justin Timberlake is crazy.. "The Kids are All Right" could get him a nod but not Moore? I thought Ruffalo's character was basically scenery - he did a managable job, but the script wasn't really written to give him much, and he did what was there - which is what he should do. But it wasn't the kind of performance that you waited for when he was onscreen.. Timberlake made the restaurant scenes in "The Social Network" some of the best moments, guiding the characters to conclusions in his strange world. In fact, at the end, I was shocked and immediately went home to google to find out how much stock his real-life model owned in Facebook, etc.


    I don't know, just that.. Good to see the academy remember "Winter's Bone"...
     
  12. TravisR

    TravisR Studio Mogul

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2004
    Messages:
    26,266
    Likes Received:
    3,559
    Location:
    The basement of the FBI building


    That's sort of how I felt about The King's Speech. It's certainly a good movie and while it has great performances, I still don't think it's deserving of a BP win.
     
  13. Steve Christou

    Steve Christou Long Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2000
    Messages:
    15,482
    Likes Received:
    309
    Location:
    London, England
    Real Name:
    Steve Christou
    I've seen 7 of the Best Film nominees and the only one I'm rooting for is Inception but without a director nod it hasn't got a chance.


    I'm rooting for Jeff Bridges and Natalie Portman though I'm not a huge fan of either film.


    It's good to see Tron Legacy get some recognition, not a great film but I did like the sound and the visuals.


    Best animated film for me was How to Train Your Dragon but Pixar has a lock on that category. :)



    Biggest upset was Chris Nolan being left out of the directing noms. Oh well.
     
  14. Chris Will

    Chris Will Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2003
    Messages:
    941
    Likes Received:
    170
    Location:
    Montgomery, AL
    Real Name:
    Chris WIlliams
    Isn't it kind of obvious that based on the directing noms, those are really the only true contenders for BP? Should Directing be expanded as well? Or, does this just point out how ridiculous 10 BP noms really is?


    Other then that, I think it is a decent list of noms in every category. The only thing I disagree with is Inception getting a score nom. I thought that score was one of Zimmer's most boring efforts to date, he really just seems to be going through the motions these days. I know they were disqualified but, the scores to Black Swan or True Grit deserve to be there more then Inception IMO. I guess Zimmer is the new John Williams, meaning he will get a nom every year he does a score, deserving or not.


    I know it probably will not win but, I think True Grit is the best movie of the year.
     
  15. Steve Christou

    Steve Christou Long Member

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2000
    Messages:
    15,482
    Likes Received:
    309
    Location:
    London, England
    Real Name:
    Steve Christou

    Exactly what I was saying in another thread.
     
  16. Steve_Tk

    Steve_Tk Cinematographer

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2002
    Messages:
    2,833
    Likes Received:
    1
    At first glance I actually thought the title of this thread was "pretentious thread" instead of predictions.
     
  17. Russell G

    Russell G Fake Shemp
    Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2002
    Messages:
    11,096
    Likes Received:
    538
    Location:
    Deadmonton
    Real Name:
    Russell
    I'm disappointed that "Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World" got completely ignored in technical areas. Most of the rest of the list is the usual "ho hum" for me.

    I'd be shocked too if "True Grit" got anything. I really liked the movie, but there were some truly original movies this year that deserve it more.
     
  18. Adam Lenhardt

    Adam Lenhardt Executive Producer

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2001
    Messages:
    16,876
    Likes Received:
    1,650
    Location:
    Albany, NY

    While I agree that Nolan was robbed of a Best Directing nod, I think the Coens work on "True Grit" is underestimated. When you consider that both Portis's novel and the Coens' screenplay use a completely different pattern of speech than contemporary American English, it's amazing that they were able to get realistic and natural delivery and performances from the entire cast. The direction is less flashy than other works this year (or even others of their own films) but it, for the most part, does exactly what it needs to.

    The visual effects and sound work were creative and well-rendered, but they didn't really break new ground. I think that's why "Scott Pilgrim" just barely missed the cut. The V/FX nominees each achieved something we've never seen before.
     
  19. Dave B Ferris

    Dave B Ferris Supporting Actor

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2000
    Messages:
    991
    Likes Received:
    112
    I hope Banksy wins - could be the most interesting moment of the telecast!
     
  20. Brandon Conway

    Brandon Conway captveg

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2002
    Messages:
    8,348
    Likes Received:
    1,116
    Location:
    North Hollywood, CA
    Real Name:
    Brandon Conway
    True Grit won't win Best Picture because it was not nominated for Film Editing. The last Best Picture without a Film Editing nomination was Ordinary People in 1980.


    My list of "snubs":


    Christopher Nolan - Directing

    Daft Punk - Original Score

    Inception - Editing

    Shutter Island - Editing (and some others but I know it had no chance due to the February release)

    Ted Levine - Supporting Actor - Shutter Island (see above; if there was ever a one-scene performance that deserved a Supporting Acting nom, it was Ted Levine in the Jeep Scene in Shutter Island)

    Waiting for Superman - Feature Documentary



    Otherwise I think it's a good slate of nominees.


    Some early thoughts on who I think will win:


    Picture & Director - Race is clearly between The Social Network and The King's Speech, with the latter gaining traction as time goes on. Same with Director (Fincher and Hooper). I can see a split there - Fincher w/ Director, King's Speech w/ Picture. Other nominees need not apply


    Acting awards - They're getting more and more predictable every year. Firth/Portman/Bale/Leo are the clear favorites. However, I could see Bening getting Actress since she's "due" and has been overlooked before. I also think Supporting Actress is more of a two-way race between Leo and Steinfeld (the Academy loves to reward young first-nominee actresses in the Supporting Actress category). This makes me wonder - when was the last legitimate major upset in an acting category? Adrien Brody for The Pianist in 2002? It's been a while, and it's starting to get a bit boring because of it.


    Screenplays - The King's Speech and The Social Network. Major, major upset if either of these do not win.


    Cinematography - I think Deakins finally gets his Oscar for True Grit. However, if King's Speech or Social Network start sweeping, look out.


    Film Editing - 127 Hours deserves it the most of the nominees, but it won't win. Social Network / King's Speech, sweep dependent.


    Art Direction - Probably King's Speech. Academy loves period pieces in this category.


    Costume Design - See above.


    Makeup - Eh, toss up.


    Score - The Social Network. Unless King's Speech sweeps. Maybe Zimmer since the music of Inception is so integral to the story.


    Song - Another toss-up.


    Sound Editing - TRON: Legacy should win, but it won't. Probably Inception.


    Sound Mixing - Whichever is sweeping - Social Network or King's Speech


    Visual Effects - Inception


    Documentary Feature - Exit Through the Gift Shop


    Short categories - No one ever knows. Day and Night was excellent, though.


    Foreign Language Film - Biutiful has the edge over Dogtooth. But since those who vote must see all the films, one never knows.


    Animated Feature - A closer race than probably suspected, but Toy Story 3 will win.
     

Share This Page