The Drumbeat for a Verizon / Apple partnership is getting louder (1 Viewer)

[mattCR]

WiMAX is a complete data first technology.. which is why Intel backs it. And I don't think WiMAX is going away. But how well it can be co-opted for phone service will be the trick. For Clear, it's a win. For Sprint, it's going to be interesting.

 

[Sam Posten]

Are you saying that data focus is radically different from what LTE has? Isn't that what the wikipedia page for LTE is calling an AIPN or All IP Network? And following that logic, does that mean it is capable of simultaneous voice and data because all voice calls are just bits anyway, ie VOIP?


Or am I totally confusing multiple separate things?

 

[mattCR]

No, multiple different things. LTE is an AIPN, Both are data formed networks. But the switching and power behind WiMAX, as well as the way it is designed clearly puts data way ahead of other technologies. LTE is a much more logical progression back to previous cell types (HSPA, etc.) and WiMAX doesn't.

Because of that, WiMAX has a big nationwide push from Clear, who's getting TimeWarner to roll out it's WiMAX 4G Data cards nationwide (125 markets by year end, 81 at current) and it's backbone is hardcore data, using Sprint, TW and Intel's data backbone.


This has led to WiMAX pushing/preparing to rollout 100Mb data connections in the next two years, which it can do without a major change to the APs.

That having been said, that upgrade would have zero benefit at all to any phone user. LTE could make the same step, but the incentive isn't there. LTE is in the end the technology that will "Win" for mobile phones, and WiMAX will stick around because it will get a lot of push as an upward data service. But because Sprint is the only phone operator on WiMAX, phone oriented performance and even network design isn't something that's at the front of the WiMAX rollout.

 

[Sam Posten]

Gruber is pretty convinced it will be January and CDMA only, no LTE:

http://daringfireball.net/2010/08/n92

 

http://daringfireball.net/2010/08/january_jones

 

[DaveF]

My estimation:

If Apple cares about marketshare, there will be a Verizon iPhone early next year.

 

If Apple cares about continuing high-margin profits to the sacrifice of marketshare, there will not be a V iPhone until 2012.

 

If Apple is still looking for leverage in the V bargaining, there will be T-Mobile and Sprint iPhones early next year.

 

If Apple is expanding its global presence, while letting the US market be, there will be CMDA iPhones for the Asian markets only.

 

****

I think there will be an iPhone on Verizon early next year, even if it means suffering penalties for breaking an AT&T contract. Android is ahead on marketshare in the US and Apple wants to win this. I think that smartphones matter in a way that iPods and iPads don't. Also, other major markets have multiple carriers; the US is odd in still being exclusive to only 30% of the market. If Apple waits another whole year to before expanding their US presence beyond AT&T, they will have lost not only the smartphone marketshare competition, but are endangering the long-term prospects of the iPad by the threat of developer brain-drain to Android.

 

So they will expand to Verizon. What they lose on unit-margins will (presumably) be made up for by more than doubling their potential US market, so increasing marketshare while also improving the bottom line.

 

They will not expand simultaneously to Sprint and T-Mobile. Apple likes to control complexity and they clearly can't even fulfill demand for iPhone 4s on AT&T right now. Sprint and T-Mobile will be happen at WWDC this summer, when Apple announces iPhone 5 that works on every major carrier in the US. And that will increase the marketshare potential another 50%.

 

Finally, we won't see an LTE iPhone until 2012 at the earliest: Apple clearly waits on incorporating technology in their products (which is ironic given their ahead-of-the-curve use of manufacturing methods and materials). They'll let other people figure out LTE, drive down the cost and power consumption, and roll it out late. Android fans will go bonkers mocking the iPhone for being stuck on 3G, while they use their Droid LTE phones for the one hour the battery lasts on the the network ... until Apple shows up with iPhone LTE in 2012 or 2013. And then we can go back to arguing about useful things, like screen resolution and playlist synchronization

 

[KeithAP]

If a CDMA iPhone comes in January, the aspect of this I haven't seen addressed in the rumor mills is Apple's update schedule.

 

iPhone 4 in January for Verizon, what happens come June? Do we get iPhone 5 for Verizon and AT&T, does AT&T get it first and Verizon several months after that? Or maybe, the next iPhone update won't be a big change, iPhone 4.5 if you will.

 

It just seems odd to me that Apple would release iPhone 4 on a new carrier in the middle of the model's life and 6 months later update it.

 

-Keith

 

[Sam Posten]

My bet: CDMA (probably Verizon) January 2011, LTE (Verizon for sure) January 2012 at the earliest.

 

[DaveF]

Originally Posted by Keith Plucker

If a CDMA iPhone comes in January, the aspect of this I haven't seen addressed in the rumor mills is Apple's update schedule.

Then you didn't read the essays Sam linked to Nor my comments

 

 

Next summer will bring iPhone 5 for all carriers. Full stop. If a Verizon iPhone comes out this January, it will have a 6 month "new" life and then next summer be pushed down to the $99 entry option as the iPhone 5 supercedes.

 

And from then on all carriers are on the same refresh cycle.

 

Yes this is a weird hiccup in Apple's schedule. But introducing a new phone on a new carrier in January is a weird thing. They do it, and then get back on schedule. And the interim CDMA iPhone4 will be in all other ways identical to the current iPhone 4; there will be no mid-cycle feature upgrade. Nor, in my speculation, will there be a 3GS CDMA iPhone.

 

Obviously, I'm just speculating. For all I know, Apple will be out of business next January and the Android phones will have achieved sufficient quantity to become a self-aware Skynet, ruling us in peaceful annihilation