The downside to fragmentation (1 Viewer)

[Sam Posten]

Ok try this one on for size Robert:
http://m.techcrunch.com/2012/05/11/this-is-what-developing-for-android-looks-like/
600 unique devices to test for if you are serious about design. Good luck with that.

 

[RobertR]

Ok try this one on for size Robert:
http://m.techcrunch.com/2012/05/11/this-is-what-developing-for-android-looks-like/
600 unique devices to test for if you are serious about design. Good luck with that.

Sam, Sam...why do you keep insisting that I, as an Android consumer, must view things from a company perspective? I guarantee you I didn't think about Panasonic's profit margin or their technical headaches when I bought their plasma TV.

 

[Sam Posten]

If you want developers to keep making apps for your system of choice you need developers to not think of the system as horribly broken.
Why is this so hard to understand? Think of it like a gaming console if it helps. No developers = no games = no consumers = dead system, vicious circle.

 

[RobertR]

Who is this "you" you're trying to talk to? Shouldn't you be emailing some executive at Google, instead of posting on HTF?

 

[Sam Posten]

"You" is anyone invested in seeing Android continue to improve if not outright succeed. I count myself in that group. If you are among the you, ask yourself:
Are you honestly happy with the breadth and depth of apps for Android? If so then fragmentation isn't an issue for you.
Have any of your favorite devs given up on developing for android? If no then fragmentation isn't an issue for you.
Are you fine with ad supported apps because Android users won't generally buy apps in large enough quantities to make development or conversion worthwhile for devs? If so then fragmentation isn't an issue for you.
I own 3 android devices and I am far from satisfied with the apps available for them for the reasons listed above. It's true I prefer the iOS ecosystem but that does not lessen my disappointment as an Android device owner, plus as I have said all along what I hope to see is more competitive solutions from Android, MS and others to keep the pressure on Apple going.

 

[RobertR]

Android HAS succeeded for me. I have plenty of very nice apps that work quite nicely on my phone. I like the hardware and the software, and I really don't sit around worrying about "proof" that the whole thing is going to come crashing down or any such thing. Let the Iphone fans obsess over company profits. I'll just enjoy using my phone.

 

[Sam Posten]

There were plenty of very satisfied betamax and HD DVD consumers too.

 

[RobertR]

So you're claiming that Android is dying? Really? I just read an article dated yesterday that says Android's share of the global OS market is over 56%, followed by IOS at 22.9%. If you want to only talk about the U.S., it's a whopping 61% to 29% lead for Android. How the hell does that situation make Android comparable to Betamax and HDDVD? If anything, it's Apple that's closer to being like Betamax (which was also touted for being technically superior by its devotees).
Look, if you prefer Apple's approach to things, go for it. Just don't expect everyone else to agree with you that Android is "wrong" for being The UnApple.

 

[Sam Posten]

Robert you keep putting words in my mouth because YOU are coming into this conversation with preconceived notions, and each time I've tried to repeat how wrong you are about my motivations you ignore them.
Maybe it's time you move on to a different thread. Feel free to create an "android is WINNING" thread or something like that.

 

[RobertR]

You just implied that Android is facing the same fate as Betamax, did you not? So I looked it up, and said market conditions don't support that claim. You also said in post # 85:

It's true I prefer the iOS ecosystem

So what words did I put in your mouth, Sam?

 

[Sam Posten]

That I believe profits > all.
That I exclusively use Macs, am unwilling to criticize the things that Apple gets wrong, or suffer similar fanboy blind faith.
That I believe Android is dying
That I believe Android can't solve the UI or fragmentation issues if they wanted to.
None of that is true. I use Android now more than ever. But the facts remain that: fragmentation is getting worse not better, developers are eschewing Android for a variety of reasons, the average android user is imagined to be a cheapskate the vast majority of my favorite iOS apps will never come to Android unless these issues are solved, and very very few new ideas are germinating in Android apps first and then coming other OSes while it remains a haven for clones of innovative ideas.

 

[RobertR]

That I believe profits > all.

You posted a link to an article with the rather lurid (and ludicrous) title “Android is dead”, which bases that silly claim on Apple’s profit margins. Why would you do that, if you didn’t agree with placing such a big emphasis on profitability?

That I exclusively use Macs, am unwilling to criticize the things that Apple gets wrong, or suffer similar fanboy blind faith.

I checked my posts, and I didn’t make those claims about you. I DID make sarcastic comments about sites with names such as "macgasm" (such a title makes "fanboy" sound like a severe understatement) in order to show how silly it is to think they're giving anything resembling an objective analysis.

That I believe Android is dying

You compared satisfaction with Android to satisfaction with two dead formats. It’s difficult NOT to think you meant to imply it faces the same fate.
If you don’t think Android is dying (or in serious trouble), do you think it’s thriving? I understand you’re not happy with the “fragmentation”, but I just don’t see that big numbers of Android users share your unhappiness. Either they like their phones or they don’t. They’re buying a LOT of them, which doesn’t fit the notion that they’re unhappy.

That I believe Android can't solve the UI or fragmentation issues if they wanted to.

I never mentioned such a belief on your part.

 

[Sam Posten]

Linkage does not necessarily mean I fully endorse the conclusions of any given article, as I have noted again and again. I link to stuff that provides news and insights even if it's diametrically opposed to what I believe.
So far there haven't been a lot of articles saying that fragmentation isn't a problem. There may be end user sentiment (like yours) that believes that to be the case, but there's not much in the way of supporting news stories to try to paint a better picture of it, and tons showing specific examples of where specific devs have had issues coping with it and users confused by it.
At this point we know what each other currently believes, lets see what news breaks on the front and how the story develops over time. If you find em, please post em!

 

[Sam Posten]

Semi confirmation, semi debunkage from other android devs:
http://techcrunch.com/2012/06/02/android-qa-testing-quality-assurance/
Not all rosy in the MAS either:
http://rentzsch.tumblr.com/post/24207015641/mac-app-store-vs-buying-direct

 

[Sam Posten]

These guys are idiots:
http://www.cultofmac.com/171185/android-growth-is-stalling-in-the-us-while-the-ios-juggernaut-charges-on/?utm_medium=twit&utm_campaign=spread-us
Thats not what Horace said at all. He said we might be seeing the first signs of saturation.
I don't believe that is true at all. I believe all phones will be smartphones and there is opportunity in converting those who are not convinced yet.
I dont believe we will get there with cheap phones (aka Androids like huawei) but with last years great phones (including this years top android phones)

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

Originally Posted by Sam Posten /t/311159/the-downside-to-fragmentation/90#post_3934277
I don't believe that is true at all. I believe all phones will be smartphones and there is opportunity in converting those who are not convinced yet.
I dont believe we will get there with cheap phones (aka Androids like huawei) but with last years great phones (including this years top android phones)

Not happening until data plan pricing goes waaaay down... or they stop forcing people to take a data plan...

_Man_

 

[Sam Posten]

The entry level is $15 a month right now which seems relatively reasonable to me. Could there be a $5 or $10 level? Sure. Would that entice holdouts? Doubt it.

 

[RobertR]

Originally Posted by Sam Posten View Post
I don't believe that is true at all. I believe all phones will be smartphones and there is opportunity in converting those who are not convinced yet.
I dont believe we will get there with cheap phones (aka Androids like huawei) but with last years great phones (including this years top android phones)

Not happening until data plan pricing goes waaaay down... or they stop forcing people to take a data plan...
_Man_

I'm on a no contract plan that includes data AND voice for 30 bucks a month, and that's with a high end phone.

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

I'm on a no contract plan that includes data AND voice for 30 bucks a month, and that's with a high end phone.

That probably also means very little to most of the holdouts unless you're suggesting the average current non-smartphone, cellphone customer would rather have a smartphone that only gives them 100min/month (or whatever you mentioned before) instead of something more useable for actual phone calls.

Maybe if the economy didn't tank w/ the job market still looking rather bleak for the forseeable future -- despite what Wall St tries to make people think -- then the teleco's might convince most of the holdouts to switch and spend more on their phone bills. But as is, I think it very doubtful. Probably most of the folks interested in switching (and can afford to do so at current rates) have switched by now.

FWIW, I probably only need 50-100 out-of-network min/month myself *IF* my family (and close relatives) is also using the same mobile provider, but we're on a family-share plan, and switching to your approach will basically cost $20+tax+fees/month *more* for most of the lines since each additional line in the plan only costs $10+tax+fees/month (w/out data plan) -- and that would be assuming an unsharable 100min/month is enough for everyone on the share plan, not just myself, which is definitely not the case.

Personally, I'd rather have a tablet + non-smart phone myself, if I'm gonna pay extra for the capabilities -- I pretty much always carry a big enough bag (eg. my camera slingbag) w/ me to hold a tablet anyway. I'm finding $20/month (w/ apparently no tax, no fees to boot) for a mere 1GB of data on Verizon's network w/ the iPad seems good enough for my uses, and I'm not forced to keep the data service going w/ that -- plus I'll have more freedom to mix and match as I please since everything won't be tied to one provider, especially w/ the new iPad and its easily swappable SIM card. Of course, I'm not suggesting everyone else go that route instead, but it probably makes sense for at least some folks who want to have a tablet anyway.

_Man_

 

[Sam Posten]

Here's the thing tho Man-Fai: the carriers don't have incentive to keep carrying dumbphones. Eventually everything will be IP based, maybe not this year or next but don't doubt that it will happen.
Bits is bits. And keeping ties to legacy tech is expensive.
Will there still be people who pine for non smartphones? Sure just as there are still people who want vinyl records or film based photography, but eventually the economies of scale will push the carriers to tell those people tough.
Related:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304065704577426760861602618.html
Related x2:
http://www.loopinsight.com/2012/06/06/46-of-users-would-buy-a-data-only-smartphone-plan/