The 2011 American Idol #10 HTF TOP TEN CHALLENGE: All details here.... (1 Viewer)

[Yee-Ming]

Originally Posted by NolanJ

No, you're still in the lead for at least another week!


Remarkably, SIX of us correctly placed Casey at #6, including current leader NolanJ, previous leader Aaron Silverman, and even yours truly. And most had Casey fairly close to the #6 spot, so no major changes in the leaderboard:-



Yee Ming 14.0

RAF 18.0

NYSandy 24.5

Carl Miller 22.0

Elizabeth S 15.0

TonyD 14.0

Phil Taylor 15.5

NolanJ [COLOR= rgb(255, 0, 0)]8.0[/COLOR]

Patrick Sun 16.0

Dheiner 14.0

Jeffrey_H 13.0

Russel G 15.0

pitchman 15.5

Bryan X 16.0

Aaron Silverman 9.5

LucyS 13.5


Some idle observations: Aaron and Elizabeth both have two spot-on predictions, getting Casey and Paul correct at #6 and #8. Honourable mentions to NolanJ, TonyD and Lucy S who have one spot-on and one 0.5 score.


Looking ahead, now that we're at the halfway point, ideally you want your bottom five to have already been eliminated, and your top five to remain intact, or as close as possible to this. For instance, our current leader NolanJ has four of his bottom five eliminated -- but Haley keeps going and will hit him for at least 4 pts even if she goes next week. As a contrast, Patrick's bottom 5 have been eliminated, and as an added bonus Haley is his missing #11 pick so her continued good run doesn't hurt his score. And the same situation applies to me and ElizabethS, so whilst the three of us have mid-table scores at the moment, if the remaining 5 are eliminated in roughly the same position as our respective predictions, our respective scores going forward won't increase by much. Carl Miller is also in the same situation, but his current score is rather higher, mainly because the single top five he has lost so far was Pia, for a big hit of 8 pts.

The big determining factor as to who wins this could be Haley: nobody picked her for top 5, with two placing her at #6. If she does very well, a lot of us are going to take big hits in our scores, while the four of us who technically got it even more wrong by placing her at #11 will dodge lots of bullets, due to the contest format.

 

[RAF]

I love the format of this contest, especially since most people are not out of it until the very end. While I haven't done well this year (third from last if I read it correctly at this point) and neither has my "significant other" NYSandy who is bringing up the rear it is an entertaining contest. Even though we are not eligible for the prize package we still enjoy watching things unfold. Like I said, I love this format. There's a lot more going on than meets the eye at first until things begin to unfold. Then people can appreciate the subtle nuances in the scoring system. It seems so easy, while it's really quite complex within its simplicity! "Simple" puzzles and contests are often the most satisfying. And let me add a word of thanks to YeeMing for taking the reigns of this contest's administration. He's doing a wonderful job and I greatly appreciate his contributions to the competition and to this thread. I'm glad that the competition will keep going in future years even if I can't personally administer it any more. While my good days are still more than my bad ones, I'm still usually able to monitor most things that I enjoy, albeit in a more condensed form. Kudos to all involved!

 

[Aaron Silverman]

If the word on Scotty's voting patterns is correct, I think NolanJ may have a lock on this one!

 

[Yee-Ming]

Yee Ming 17.0

RAF 22.0

NYSandy 26.5

Carl Miller 24.0

Elizabeth S 17.0

TonyD 17.0

Phil Taylor 19.5

NolanJ [COLOR= rgb(255, 0, 0)]9.0[/COLOR]

Patrick Sun 16.0

Dheiner 16.0

Jeffrey_H 17.0

Russel G 18.0

pitchman 16.5

Bryan X 17.0

Aaron Silverman 12.5

LucyS 15.5


NolanJ remains in the lead, scoring just 1 pt on Jacob's elimination. Special mention to Patrick Sun, who gets a second spot-on in a row by correctly placing Jacob at #5.

The way things are headed, I think Aaron is right: NolanJ is now the clear frontrunner, although Haley's continued run will cost him points when she finally goes home. Aaron in second will also get hit with pts when Haley goes, albeit 2 less, but Nolan has Scotty as the winner whilst Aaron has him at #5. Now that we're past #5, each week means Nolan scores less on Scotty while Aaron scores more, and given the Dial Idol trends it seems Scotty will at least reach the Finale; my best guess now is that it'll be against James.

 

[Patrick Sun]

All but Dheiner picked Pia in their top 5, while Haley didn't crack anyone's top 5. That's the pairing that wrecked me this year. Haley's continued presence on AI this season is a mystery to me.

 

[Phil Taylor]

Even though it cost me major points and continued my string of AI HTF Top 10 Challenge suckiness ... I was glad to see Jacob get the boot. He impressed me a lot in the early auditions and eliminations (therefore his #1 placement on my list) but he got progressively worse each week to the point of being absolutely unbearable to listen to.

 

[Yee-Ming]

^^ I concur, hence my selection of Jacob as #2, but after the early weeks he's been dreadful. I'm guessing the rigours of AI and the recording business weren't something he was comfortable with.


Now that our scores have 'settled' somewhat in terms of ranking:-


NolanJ [COLOR= rgb(255, 0, 0)]9.0[/COLOR]

Aaron Silverman 12.5

LucyS 15.5
Patrick Sun 16.0

Dheiner 16.0

pitchman 16.5

Bryan X 17.0

Jeffrey_H 17.0 Yee Ming 17.0

Elizabeth S 17.0

TonyD 17.0

Russel G 18.0

Phil Taylor 19.5

RAF 22.0 Carl Miller 24.0

NYSandy 26.5

Hmmm... I had not realised there were so many of us on 17! And with 4 others at +/- 1 from 17, it's a tight mid-table, but Nolan is way out in front with Aaron a trailing second -- for now.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

If Scotty doesn't screw up royally tonight, I think this contest might be a done deal. So much for keepin' it in the family!

 

[Patrick Sun]

I think I need Scotty to go home tonight (to keep my streak of correct ouster predictions alive, it would be 3 in a row), but I'm inclined to believe that it'll be Haley that goes home tomorrow night.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

I think I'm in trouble. On a whim I called in for James. And got through! So I hit redial. And got through again! Curious. I probably hit redial 20 times and only got around 3 busy signals. Not a good sign for my boy James.

 

[Yee-Ming]

^^ I guess your experience was indicative. Lots of us (including yours truly) had pegged James as the winner, so we're getting hit for three this week. Special mention to Jeffrey and Russell who got it spot on; our leader Nolan was only 1 off and stays well in the lead -- I haven't computed all the permutations, but I think he's going to win this.



NolanJ [COLOR= rgb(255, 0, 0)]10.0[/COLOR]

Aaron Silverman 15.5

Jeffrey_H 17.0
Patrick Sun 18.0 Russel G 18.0

LucyS 18.5
Dheiner 19.0 pitchman 19.5

Bryan X 20.0

Yee Ming 20.0
Elizabeth S 20.0

TonyD 20.0

Phil Taylor 21.5

RAF 25.0
Carl Miller 26.0

NYSandy 30.5


My rough prognostications suggest that only if it finishes Lauren/Haley/Scotty, then Patrick will pip Nolan by 1 pt. I don't think Aaron or Jeffrey can catch Nolan, mainly because they're going to get hit with the Haley factor as well, while Patrick had omitted Haley entirely and won't score anything on her elimination. Anyone else within touching distance will take big hits on Scotty or Haley (or both), or their remaining predictions are fairly similar to Nolan's so they won't up much ground.

 

[RAF]

[COLOR= #0000cd][SIZE= 16px]Prize Package Announced![/COLOR][/SIZE]


Owner Adam Gregorich has provided me with a list of the titles that will be awarded to the winner of the HTF American Idol Challenge. Assuming that I got everything right here's the list (with links to Amazon so that you can see what the titles are all about). If, in fact, the projections are that [COLOR= #ff0000]NolanJ[/COLOR] has to finish either first or second behind Patrick Sun then NolanJ would be the winner of the prize package because as a moderator, Patrick is ineligible for any prizes. However if he wins he gets bragging rights!


Here's what Adam told me that the prize will consist of:


The Pacific (HBO miniseries DVD set) How I Won The War (DVD) Les Miserables (DVD 25th Anniversary) Funny Farm/Spies Like Us ([COLOR= #0000ff]Blu-ray[/COLOR]) Click on each title for more details. As usual an eclectic mix of titles with something for just about everyone. I'm familiar with the 25th Anniversary of Les Miserables and if you are a fan of this title then you are in for a real treat. As always, Adam is limited by what's available to him at the time that the contest is coming to a close but once again he did a good job of coming up with a nice package. When a winner is determined please email me your address at [email protected] so that we can get the package mailed out to you ASAP.

 

[Aaron Silverman]

Congrats, Nolan!


As of this week, my picks of the remaining contestants are all passed, so my final score is fixed at 24.5. Same with Lucy, who will finish at 30.5. At least I'll have bragging rights at home.

 

[Patrick Sun]

Scotty's gotta go! Scotty's gotta go! Scotty's gotta go! Scotty's gotta go! Scotty's gotta go!


hahaha!

 

[NolanJ]

Wow, I won something! wo0t!


Thanks to everyone at Home Theater Forum for having these yearly contests. They are a lot of fun!

 

[Yee-Ming]

And so Haley finally goes home. Lots of participants took big hits on Haley, those that didn't actually got it even more wrong by having her as the omitted 11th.



NolanJ [COLOR= rgb(255, 0, 0)]16.0[/COLOR]

Patrick Sun 18.0

Aaron Silverman 19.5

Yee Ming 20.0 Elizabeth S 20.0

LucyS 23.5
TonyD 24.0 Jeffrey_H 24.0
Phil Taylor 24.5 Russel G 25.0 Dheiner 25.0
Carl Miller 26.0

pitchman 26.5 Bryan X 27.0

RAF 28.0
NYSandy 36.5


With one more week to go, it's now clear Nolan will be the winner -- with Scotty and Lauren as his top two, his score is either 16 if Scotty wins, or 18 if Lauren does. Either way, Patrick will get hit for at least 2 since he's got Scotty at #4, taking his score to at least 20, and 18 is already clear of Aaron's current score of 19.5.


So congratulations NolanJ!

 

[Phil Taylor]

Congratulations to Nolan. Honestly I still wouldn't pick Scotty to win or to even have been in the top three.

 

[RAF]

Congratulations, NolanJ.

Now that the results are "official" I'm going to tell Owner Adam Gregorich to send out your prize package. Let us know when it arrives.

 

[Jeffery_H]

I went back and took a look at my list. Basically, that is still who I would put in my top 5 list still today. They were chosen because that's how I saw them at the time and mainly still do. The only thing is perhaps I would give James a bit higher ranking (although he was #4 like I predicted). Certainly, what hurt most was the whole Pia vs Haley ranking for most of us. There is no way I would've ever put either one in rankings of how things actually turned out. For me, although I did not win the challenge, my list is still the winner in my book as those would be the only ones I would ever buy a record of.

 

[Yee-Ming]

No real surprise, Scotty wins it. Here's the final set of results, although our winner was already determined last week:



NolanJ [COLOR= rgb(255, 0, 0)]16.0[/COLOR]

Patrick Sun 22.0

Aaron Silverman 24.5

Yee Ming 26.0
Elizabeth S 26.0

Dheiner 29.0
Jeffrey_H 30.0 LucyS 30.5
Phil Taylor 30.5
Russel G 32.0
Carl Miller 32.0 Bryan X 32.0
pitchman 32.5
TonyD 34.0 RAF 38.0
NYSandy 42.5


Nolan got the top two picks spot on; no one else picked Scotty to win. Oddly, a lot of folks scored 6 pts this week on their placings of Scotty and Lauren.


Well, that does it for this year, thanks for taking part, it was fun compiling these results, and see you all again next year!