The 2008 American Idol (#7) HTF Top Ten Challenge: *** John Swarce wins! *** (1 Viewer)

[Bryan X]

I'm with you on Jason and Chikezie. But I'd throw Ramielle in that group too. She seems to have gotten progressively worse over the past few weeks.

 

[RAF]

Definitely, Yee!

Our "Top Ten Challenges" seem like a simple "list" competition but, like the game of Chess, contain some interesting elements that aren't apparent to the casual onlooker at first. And it becomes even more interesting if you pick from a pool of 16 contestants, as we did. Not only are you rooting, initially, for your selections to stave off elimination until the final ten have been determined, but once we get to that point you are rooting for some contestants that you didn't choose to go in the place where you lost one of your choices. And the irony is (and a bit of an equalizer too!) that the people who lost the most from their respective top tens up to this point also have the most potential spots to score a "zero" for the week even by seeing one of their non-choices voted off. It's a combination of picking people to go in the correct position or having non-picks go where you lost a person from your list earlier. And that's why scoring high at the outset is not necessarily a death knell.

Like I said, a very interesting concept for a contest - and extremely challenging! That's why Dheiner's total score of 9 for the Survivor Challenge was something that is so impressive. Granted, that contest involved picking 10 out of 14 possibilities, but I would be completely shocked (and impressed) if the winning score in this contest is less than, say, 15 points.

In my opinion the "Dheiner Line of Nine" will hold the title for a very long time!

 

[TonyD]

robert would you consider ordering the list from top to bottom with the leader at top?

 

[RAF]

Tony,

I thought about this but I actually do a lot of other things besides watch AI7 and post results.



Seriously, I've tried to design something that would be easy to administer with minimal weekly input and that's why I've chosen to keep the listing static. I do highlight the leader(s) in Red for those interested.

Besides, since I give people a link to the actual spreadsheet I suppose that anyone who was interested in seeing the list sorted by score could import the spreadsheet into Excel or similar and use some of the sort functions to do this. One could actually also cut and paste the posted list into a word processor that offers sort functions as well I would imagine.

I trust that you understand my position on this.

 

[John Swarce]

All I've got to say after the vote tonight is

--John

(But, damn, Scott-S and Jed M are RIGHT behind me!! This is going to be a fun 2 months!)

 

[Patrick Sun]

Whoa, my top 8 is still intact. Just need Jason to go home next week to keep it that way.

 

[RAF]

This week's elimination didn't affect too many people here and the leader, John Swarce, was bolstered by picking Mr. C at exactly the right position (#10) so he "added" a powerful ZERO to his already impressive score. We are still at the point where one mis-step can cost a person the lead, especially with so many in close pursuit. Special mention goes to Scott-S who not only has nine people on his list still alive (along with several other entrants here), but also has his top nine alive. This is where order of elimination becomes more and more important.

Full details, as usual, are posted in the first message in this thread. The contest only gets more and more interesting as most of you are already seeing. Enjoy!

See you all next week....

 

[Lucia Duran]

I haven't been around to check this thread due to working my butt off, but man oh man I cannot believe chikizie went home over Whitney wanna be.

 

[RAF]

Tonight's elimination raised a lot of entrants' scores and also solidified John Swarce's hold on first place for now with an impressive total of 4 points. The race continues...

 

[John Swarce]

Robert:

The only person that is not in my top eight is Jason Castro. What happens to my score if he is voted off? Are there no points added to the total? I don't think that was discussed in the rules.

BTW, I still don't believe I am sitting in the lead at this point!

--->

--John

 

[Aaron Silverman]

I think that's a rules loophole -- you won't get points when he goes.

 

[RAF]

Actually Aaron, (and all others wondering about this) it's not really a loophole but a "feature" of this particular contest. Think about it. Yes, you don't get any "points" (in the form of an immediate "penalty") when a person not on your list is eliminated from American Idol. In fact, by picking ten contestants from a pool of 16 you could actually have up to SIX people not on your list who make the top ten. However, for each person you didn't choose (and who makes the top ten) this means that you had to have chosen another person who didn't make make the top ten and you are penalized quite a bit for that. For example, if someone you chose for fifth place actually left in 13th place then that's 8 points against you. The more people who didn't make your list but made it to the top ten extracts a point penalty from your other choices early on. Just look at the people with the highest (worst) scores right now. These scores are mostly achieved by not having selected the top ten correctly. But the interesting thing is, the longer the contest goes, the closer everyone comes. It's very much like a horse race. Just because you are not in the lead at the beginning doesn't mean that you are totally out of it.

This contest is both a combination of picking the top ten contestants and, most importantly, picking the correct order of finish. It's definitely not just about picking the winner - which usually can be narrowed down to 3 or four contestants at this point in the competition. What looks like a very simple list building exercise actually has a lot of strategy behind it and since the results are based on viewers' votes and not necessarily on the talent of the performers that sort of fits in with the whole idea.

If a person thinks they have found a loophole so that, say, they leave David Archeletta off their list entirely even though they think he will win (assuring themselves a "0" if and when he goes) they have to remember that this means putting someone else in first place on their list. And if that person doesn't win, then they are guaranteed getting at least 1 point and maybe as many as 15 points (if the choice was voted out as #16). Like I said - not a loophole, a "feature." I find it very intriguing.

John's score of 4 points is very strong and it will be interesting to see if he can challenge the remarkable Dheiner total of 9 points for the entire season.

Stay tuned....

 

[Aaron Silverman]

I think "loophole" was just the wrong choice of words there. It's not like I'm a professional writer or anything --

Uh-oh.

 

[Yee-Ming]

Exactly. I notice most with high scores have 4 scores already chalked up, because some of their top 10 picks didn't make top 12 at all. But that means when the 'gaps' are finally voted off, they don't take a hit at all that week, having already paid the penalty. In contrast, I got all of my top 10 picks into the top 12, and so far only two have gone, but I was way off in terms of order and my two alone have cost me 14 pts (I've lost 2 of my top 4!).

John's picks will indeed be hard to beat. All are still in, and IMHO considering how the contestants have performed and developed in the past few weeks, I can't see him being far wrong either. (In contrast, I like many thought Ramiele would go far based on her early performances, but as time has passed she hasn't stepped up her game, and indeed the pressure must have got to her. She hasn't had a good performance since she made top 12.)

 

[John Swarce]

Yee:

My totally random picks are holding up, but I see that Jed M is very close to me. I know that EVERY year we see one of the top rated contestants voted off early than expected. If any of my top contestants get voted off early (David A or Carly, maybe?), then I'll pick up points as fast as you did. And someone else may not gain any points. So the race ain't over until it's over, I guess! I'll keep holding my breath!

--John

 

[John Swarce]

Well, as I said in post 89:


Punching in the numbers quickly on Robert's spreadsheet shows this race really getting tight! I guess the Dheiner total is safe!

--John

 

[RAF]

Yes, tonight's rather surprising eviction makes this into a real horse race. John Swarce is still the only one in single digits at a score of 9.0 but since that's the "Dheiner Line" that record is probably safe for now. But Scott-S is now close behind at 10.5. Several others are only a point or two farther behind as the plot thickens.

Not only was it surprising that Michael left tonight as the low vote getter, but I think that just about everyone in the place thought that AI would duplicate last year's "AI gives back" amnesty week with nobody leaving. At least the faces of the contestants and the judges seemed to indicate this.

On to next week - speaking of which, my weekly report may be a day or two late as I will be traveling and will have a backlog of viewing to do on my DVRs when I return later in the week. No big deal as the spreadsheet (now updated) gives one an opportunity to see what's what.

Enjoy!

 

[Aaron Silverman]

I didn't think so -- at least until Ryan BROUGHT IT UP! What a dick move.

 

[Yee-Ming]

Agreed. With 3 shows this week and "Idol Gives Back" separate from the results show, I thought it pretty clear that there was no amnesty this week, until Ryan hinted at it.

Merde and frack me, what a shocker. I'm not very familiar with the Aerosmith original, but on its own merits I thought Michael's performance of Dream On wasn't bad. And considering the other two in the bottom 3, I thought Michael was safe -- Carly was dreadful, whilst Syesha suffered from the comparison to the incomparable Whitney. Also, this really kills off my 'challenge', I've lost 3 of my top 4 already!

 

[RAF]

No big surprise tonight regarding who went home. John Swarce continues to lead (and impress) at 10.0 points but there are others in close contention to make things interesting. And the "Dheiner Line of Nine" is safe for another contest since the best score is now in double figures. If you study the spreadsheet you will see that some entries are more vulnerable than others. More and more people will be accumulating "zero point" weeks not only from accuracy but from slots already filled with points from others voted off. It'll be crunch time before you know it!