Take that, iPad!

Discussion in 'Mobile Phones / Entertainment' started by Hanson, Aug 4, 2010.

  1. DaveF

    DaveF Moderator
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    $450 at Amazon. Which means, for the normal consumer -- and it's normal consumers driving the iPad's success, not sales reps who want a cheap dumb terminal -- it's still uncompetitive with the iPad.


    It's not that these Android tablets *shouldn't* succeed. But they don't offer any raison d'etre. I think Apple vs Android of 2011 does not parallel Apple vs Microsoft of 1995. But still, a little comparison to Macs vs Wintel...


    In '95, a Wintel cost less, had more software, and dominated the offices. For the home user, buying a PC had real benefits even if the experience was inferior (though by '98 I think the Windows was coming on strong to Mac System [whatever]).


    But today, there's nothing like that in Android tablets vs iPads. Android tablets aren't appreciably cheaper: $50, so about 10%. Nothing like the 30+% price difference perceived in Macs vs PCs. Android tablets are nowhere to be seen: there's no compulsion to buy one to be compatible with the office. They have less software; iPad's the way to go for the broadest and best selection of apps. Likewise media: if you buy music or movies, ipad is better. iTunes may stink on the PC, but it's there. Android is still in its media-selling infancy.


    Aside from niche uses, as I've described with my dad's Remote Desktop setup requiring an Android tablet, there's still no good reason to buy an Android tablet. Maybe those Android phone buyers, as suggested, will look to buy a compatible tablet?


    Barring an unexpected upswing in corporate use of Android tablets, or the launch of a massive Amazon system, I think Android tablets won't take off until you can get a 10" tablet for $349. Without superior hardware, software, or media integration, the only route is to undercut Apple on price, and by a lot. (And the 7" Nook Color suggests even discount pricing may be insufficient.)
     
  2. Ted Todorov

    Ted Todorov Cinematographer

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    Gotta agree with Sam and Dave. (you guys are the same Sam & Dave who did Come On, Come Over with Jaco Pastorious back in the day, right )


    Sorry to repost from the other thread: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/06/20/samsungs-new-galaxy-tab-is-still-no-match-for-peerless-ipad2/



    The biggest chance Android has is Amazon to go all in with an Android tablet this fall selling as a heavy loss leader trying to stake B&N and Apple in the eBook/Media battle.

    Dave says:



    Actually, in defense of Microsoft, WIndows 95 offered pre-emptive multitasking and memory protection -- something Mac OS did not, and would not until the release OS X 10.0 some six long years later -- and it wasn't until the release of 10.2 the following year that OS X finally started getting some real traction. Microsoft, as bad as Windows was in so many ways, had this HUGE technological advantage for 7 long years and was cheaper, and it looked to anyone paying attention that Apple was done for.


    Any fan of Android who thinks that Mac vs. Windows == iOS vs. Android is simply uninformed or engaging in heavy wishful thinking. Now, mind you I am not saying that Apple's success vs. Android is guaranteed. Apple could go and do something incredibly stooopid tomorrow. iCloud could lose everyone's mail and contacts and recent photos and erase them from their local devices via push. Apple could release a new iPhone/iOS/iPad that crashes and burns on a mass scale. Anything can happen -- but it is Apple's game to lose.

    Meanwhile here are two data points. RIM/Blackberry is imploding, especially domestically right now. The Federal Government just changed its Blackberry only policy to iOS/Android welcome and the corporate world is heading the same way. But as iOS 5 has essentially all of the Blackberry security buzzwords implemented vs. very few on Android and iOS has the better Exchange compatibility, Apple stands to eat the Lion's share of RIM's current market. (Microsoft won't even have a horse in the race until late 2012, if then. HP/Web OS may muddy the water, but my suspicion is it will mostly be to Android's detriment).

    Second data point: http://allthingsd.com/20110622/whats-the-top-selling-phone-at-verizon-and-att/

    The iPhone is outselling Android at both Verizon and AT&T. What happens if, as is likely, the iPhone 5 ships on T-Mobile and Sprint as well? Android will still likely dominate worldwide smartphone market share, but as the low end, Symbian replacement especially in less wealthy countries. Not exactly the kind of dominance Android wants.
     
  3. Hanson

    Hanson Producer

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    That is the stupidest, sloppiest piece of data collection and analysis I've seen wrt iOS vs Android, and I've been on smartphone forums.


    Is the iPhone the number one model in most of the Verizon stores? According to the informal survey, yes. But Android has multiple models -- in the survey, it only goes head to head with a specific Android model. So if a store is selling more Android phones in aggregate than the iPhone but their top selling Android phone model sells less than the iPhone, it's a point for Apple.

    This guy is actually getting paid to write articles like this?
     
  4. Ted Todorov

    Ted Todorov Cinematographer

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    I agree that the research is stupidly presented -- but someone else (BGR?) had an article based on the same survey with another graph -- what is the most popular Android phone at Verizon: and #1 was outselling #2 by a 10 to 1 margin. So likely the iPhone is outselling ALL Verizon Android phones put together. But a survey of platform market share by carrier would be useful as well.

    My larger point stands: don't assume that Android will keep being the US Smartphone OS leader for the foreseeable future -- they may lose their perch by the end of 2011 -- but only if come September the iPhone 5 ships to all 4 major carriers.
     
  5. Hanson

    Hanson Producer

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  6. Ted Todorov

    Ted Todorov Cinematographer

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    I agree, a much better survey is needed.
     
  7. Ted Todorov

    Ted Todorov Cinematographer

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    Another data point:

    http://searchengineland.com/comscore-the-ipad-owns-97-percent-of-us-tablet-traffic-82855

    my quick calculation shows iOS as a whole has 53% of all US mobile traffic. The iPad's figures are similarly lopsided worldwide. The iPhone by itself leads Android in every country surveyed except for the US, Argentina and India.

    What is difference between say France, where the iPhone has double the share (34% vs. 17%) of Android and the US? The iPhone is on all carriers in France. Which is why I think the iPhone 5 being release or not on T-Mobile/Sprint is so important to whether the iPhone or Android leads in the future. How much demand is there on those carriers? T-Mobile said today that they have 1 million US iPhone customers on their network -- that means that 1 million people were willing to settle for Edge on an iPhone instead of HSPA+ ("4G") on an Android phone and probably pay much more for a no contract iPhone… iPhone on all US carriers (hey, throw Metro PCS a bone) would in my opinion reverse ANdroids current US lead over iPhone.
     
  8. DaveF

    DaveF Moderator
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    While I think in in principle it's possible for iOS to take the marketshare lead, that requires Apple to be capable of manufacturing more smartphones than all other phone makers combined. Given the launch shortages of the iPhone 4 and iPad 2, that may be impossible. Basic practicalities may prevent iOS from leading in marketshare.
     
  9. Ted Todorov

    Ted Todorov Cinematographer

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    Apple already manufactures more iPhones than all other smart-phones combined *sold in the United States* -- no one is suggesting this will happen worldwide. The extra iPhones needed for the US market alone are quite within Apple's reach. OTOH, if they do get on China Mobile, with its 600 million subscribers then Apple will struggle to keep up with demand. By contrast T-Mobile + Sprint + Virgin + MetroPCs have what -- 1/10th that number os subscribers? And they can subtract that 1 million iPhones that are already on T-Mobile...


    But this also points to why it isn't in the cards for Apple to lead worldwide -- there are simply way too major carriers and entire countries where the iPhone isn't being sold. They are on a single carrier in China and not on the #1 carrier China Mobile. They are on a single carrier in Japan and not on the # 1 carrier DoCoMo -- etc. etc.
     
  10. DaveF

    DaveF Moderator
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    Is that so? Not that it can't be; but I thought the conclusion was the in-store polls were of sketchy value, and didn't necessarily show iPhone categorically outselling Android.



    Android in China is interesting in its own way: I've read that there are significant Android phones built on the truly 'free' Android, and not running the "Google Experience" that everyone associates with Android here in the US. (There might even be a major fork of the code.) It's being used as a truly free, unencumbered mobile OS, but also doesn't fully represent Google's desires for Android's use and representation.


    The possible outcome of that is that while "Android" is used by a 100M people, it doesn't relate at all to Google's app store, doesn't help Android compete in the US against iOS. If google's goal is "mobile search", it's ultimately still good for them. But in terms of supporting the eco-system--rising tide lifts all boats--it might not do any good at all for Motorola, HTC, LG, and so on.
     
  11. Ted Todorov

    Ted Todorov Cinematographer

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    I may not have been very clear in my previous post -- I'm not claiming that iPhone is outselling all Android phones in the US -- I just said Apple has the manufacturing capacity to do so.

    The forked Chinese Android in no way, shape or form helps Google -- I'd argue it hurts them -- certainly doesn't help them in search, as all these phones use Baidu -- a domestic Chinese search engine. I have feeling (don't know for sure) that in fact the iPhone being sold in China is the one smartphone there with Google search).


    As to my point on where the future sales trend in the US lies, apparently The Washington Post agrees with me:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/the-verizon-iphone-halted-androids-surge-the-iphone-5-could-reverse-it/2011/06/22/AGrUkRgH_story.html
     
  12. DaveF

    DaveF Moderator
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    WaPo article is sourced from the same studies we've been debating. Echo chamber, not confirmation.
     

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