Stern may start early (like a year early) (1 Viewer)

[Michael St. Clair]

The overnights show the Letterman show beating Leno.

I can't believe that some think the Stern is not relevant and that Sirius is making a mistake.

 

[Ronald Epstein]

This is a huge gamble for them.

Since signing on Stern, Sirius has only gained
nearly 200,000 subscribers. Sirius still trails
XM by 2 million subscribers.

Yes, signing on Stern was a good thing, but at the
pricetag it paid, if Sirius does not get the numbers
they expect the company risks going completely belly-up.

 

[Tim_Stack]

"Sirius has only gained nearly 200,000" - Only? He wasn't scheduled to broadcast for over a year at the time of the announcement. I think they'll easily get to the 1 million new customer plateau that they need to break even with Stern. I wouldn't even consider a subscription if it wasn't for him - and I have the equipment installed in my new car. Yes, it is a gamble, but so was the NFL deal and obviously since they trail XM by so many subscribers, a gamble was in order.

 

[Dave Anderson]

Only 200,000? LOL. So they had 700,000, sign Stern, gain 200,000 with a year+ to go before first broadcast, and this is bad? LOL. Stern is pimping Sirius like a $5.00 whore. XM is dead.

 

[Michael St. Clair]

200,000 in a few weeks is amazing! I hadn't even heard that. Imagine how many will sign up 13 months from now when you can actually listen to Stern on Sirius!

No wonder most analysts are bullish on this deal!

I have no doubt that more than 10% of current Stern radio listeners(the amount needed for Sirius to break even on the deal) will switch to Sirius come January 2006. And look at all of the publicity Sirius is getting with all of the Clear Channel and FCC controversy over Stern, and now big news about the Letterman show. Search the newswires at Google (http://news.google.com/nwshp?hl=en&gl=us) for 'Howard Stern Sirius'. 1,590 newspaper articles across the country.

Hell, I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. I'll wager $1,000 that Sirius has 2,000,000 listeners by Spring 2006. Do we have a taker?

 

[Chris]

I think Ron, you're argument has a few fallacies as well. Outside of which, SIRIUS now has a major player in not just Stern, but Mel hopping from Viacom to SIRIUS.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041119/sirius_karmazin_4.html

This gives them a higher level of access then they have ever had and a ton of press. They expect to break a million before the end of the year, and are on track to shatter that.

XM is also growing but it didn't add 30% over it's subscriptions this quarter, which SIRIUS did. XM has also taken a big gamble, in the form of MLB. While SIRIUS paid heavily for the NFL, it paid nowhere near the $650M that XM paid for MLB. (about 6 times less)

In fact, some have already said the XM deal for MLB creates some serious issues.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/co...p-212347c.html

So, now that XM has made it official they will broadcast all games, both sides (home/away) which means XM will be taking up to 32 channels off line every day for a half a year.

See, the trick with SIRIUS is that when they broadcast the NFL, it's on Sundays, so channels they pre-empt are normally the talk channels airing "best of" occurances for the week. XM will have to deal with interupting channels every day for slightly over 180 days a year.

Good luck with how that works out. Baseball is a more fitting game for radio, but the swaths of bandwidth it's going to take up to do that, and the channels it will take off line will irritate a good number of people as well.

 

[Dave Anderson]

Negative. Cuz you are right. Siruis ownz!

 

[Michael Ballack]

I like Opie and Anthony, but they seemed desperate that they would have to "counter" rally Howard Stern. I wasn't at the rally, but based on what I saw on their website, they were up in some hotel room while they had their nuts try to irritate Howard. They didn't have that as many O and A listers there as they claimed. All they had to say was that the Sirius equipment sucks and current Sirius empolyees are going to get fired.
I believe it's only a matter of time before Sirius overtakes XM and dominates the satelite radio market. Probablly sometime in late 2006, I predict. The combo of Howard, Mel, and the NFL looks more attractive to the general market. Opie and Anthony can't go on the caliber of a David Letterman to promote their product. Could Opie and Anthony help Letterman win in the ratings like Howard can? I don't think so. What have they been on so far? Some no name show on CNBC or MSNBC?
Meanwhile, Howard will contine to go on other shows to promote Sirius while Mel will continue to make deals and market the product behind the scenes.
I'm sure I'll get responses back on how Xm has 2.5 million already and Opie and Anthony are better creativly, but that doesn't mean they will win in the long run. I'll say this again, I hope Xm and Sirius merge and I can hear both.

 

[TheLongshot]

Not quite, since they don't all play at the same time. Also, not really accounting for days off either.

Still, 10-12 stations for baseball is going to be interesting.

Jason

 

[Chris]

Correct. But you're also not talking 10-12. Actually, I'm going through the MLB schedule, and on most days, you've got at least 8 games. That's 16 channels offline (home/away) for the game.. and as we all know, baseball is the only game without a clock

So, of course, there is no way to really estimate overlaps between day/night games either, which would normally serve as a reprieve. All I'm saying is that while some teams have off days, etc. you also have days where you will have double headers, make up games, etc. Unlike the NFL, you're going to be pulling a lot more hours offline of other broadcasts, I think on this we can agree. The average length of a baseball game last year was 4:12. Times that by 162 games. Then multiply that by the number of teams (32) to get the total hours of radio time: slightly over 20,700 hours. Compared to the NFL.. where you've got basically one day a week that you deal with it, and it's Sunday, so all the channels you are taking off line are airing best ofs. Seriously, if people want to gripe about bandwidth issues, I'm really interested to see how people figure this works out for great bandwidth for other networks on XM

 

[TonyD]

the way this is looking i'm gonna end up with both of them.

i dont plan on renewing the directv sunday ticket. so at least i could hear the games on sirius.
i really like to listen to stern, so there'll be that.

i like the baseball on xm because it is my faverite sport.
plus the diverse music choices on xm.

yep i'm gonna end up with both at some point.


"XM is dead"
come on now give me a break.

 

[Ralph B]

O&A ?

you guys are kidding right ? ya they got a tough job. they are doing stuff I was doing when I was a teenager! these guys are followers and to even mention them in the same breath is an insult to the name Howard Stern has created. those guys cannot hold a candle to Howard. you guys will see when those people that Love howard finally buy into sirius. they will skyrocket past XM.

its not brain surgery. just fact. the #'s are there and soon will be on sirius radio. how can that be denied ?

incredible how oblivious people are being to the contract Howard signed with sirius. its a blockbuster and when he comes out it will be proven.

you think those million's of people who listen to him everyday are gonna want to listen to reg FM or AM talk now ? lol, no! the public are followers of stern and they will buy into sirius and once they get a taste of it will see it was more than howard they got.

I disagree what people are saying about his show. listening to howard uncensored is like listening to him for the first time all over again. without the censores it will def not be the same show. we can finally hear how the show was meant to be heard and to top it off the show will have material he could never use before.


O&A in the same breath as howard. too funny! another funny thing is I am just a passerby fan of howards. just think of the hardcore fans that will support him!

 

[WillG]

You may not like them, but the fact that they often are in the same breath as Howard has got to say something about what they have been doing. In all these years, they have been the only ones worthy of being mentioned in the same breath, And it is obvious that Stern felt threatened enough by them to go crying to Mel to make them stop talking about him. I know that someone will enevitably say "Yeah, because they're his clones" (a weak arguement anyway) so don't waste keystrokes. Howard may have been a pioneer of Shock jock radio, but he does not have a patent on it. They have been mentioned in countless articles about Stern going to Sirius. They may not have all the clout Stern has, but they certainly are at least nipping at his heels at this point, which is more than anyone else has done. Also, I think Stern has lost some of his ability a bit to draw a crowd. If you listen to O&A at all, a few weeks ago, they made mention of "Somebody" trying to get permits for a big event in Times Square (or another very high profile location) but was denied because he did not have the same amount of pull as he once had. I'm not anti Stern at all (although, I can't deny that I have lost a lot of respect for him this past year), but O&A are talents in this medium and people should accept that.

 

[TheLongshot]

Oh I will. They are both radio personalities that revel in their immaturity. Stern has just been around longer.

Personally, I couldn't give a crap about either. It is all about the music for me.

Jason

 

[Ralph B]

what kind of money is O&A getting ? what did they get for a contract ? lol


how many listeners do they have ?


get my point. O&A are not even in the same league! give me a break.

 

[Chris]

I have no idea how many fans they will bring to XM, but it's probably good for XM. However, putting them on a pay channel means that to hear them, you pay more.. which limits the audience down from XM's current 2.5M listener base. You've got to figure not every person who has XM will pay the extra fee to hear them.

Whereas, on the other end, even though I really don't care for Howard, he will be just an added service at no cost to SIRIUS subscribers.

One thing I want to add: a lot of people talk about how risky the Howard Stern deal is. I think it's genious. Right now, SIRIUS is paying Stern -0-. -0-. And yet, he's beating the pavement on Letterman and elsewhere with unpaid spokesmanship for them that has thus far, netted them about 200,000 in growth. If SIRI continues to gain subscribers at a this rate, then they are in great shape. Because until 2006, they owe Stern nothing, and growth beforehand gives them a first-wind boost. 2005 for sheer growth could be very good for SIRI with Stern plugging them.. and with them paying him nothing. So their $500M/5 year/3 channel deal looks better every day.

 

[WillG]

It might be a bit early to tell. While I'm sure that Howard will pull in more subscribers. This 200,000 figure may be a surge based on the news that Howard is coming. It's like the stock market, anytime a company makes a big announcement, the stock almost always surges, but will it hold? Only time will tell

 

[Chris]

True. It could be solely his pull; it could also be the NFL ads, etc. who knows. But right now, the increase in listenership doesn't hurt them at all.

 

[WillG]

True, but from what I have heard, XM is the better company. I think Mel going to Sirius isn't going to help their quality because he is a corporate radio guy, in other words, part of the problem. Howard will attract subscribers, but XM has the depth. XM could have said "F You" to Opie and Anthony in the hopes of landing Stern, but I like to think that XM saw past the hype and hired the future. Stern had his day, but he has hurt himself by being too much of an extreme malcontent. It used to be good schtick for him "Baba Booey, repeat after me... I...WILL...HAVE...MY....BOFF'S...POTATO...READY... FOR...HIM...ON..TIME" I know his ratings have gone up, but I think he has lost a lot of respect over the past few years. He's just changed too much. I'm not to wild about the FCC but I think he has dug his own grave with them to a certain degree. I think he will do well on Satellite, but as far as "revolutionizing" the industry, I wouldn't go that far. He isn't the first man on the moon in this capacity as much as he thinks he is.

BTW, Shoudn't Robin be out of the country pretty soon?

 

[Chris]

I'm not sure what you mean by this. (?) Do you mean content wise or corporate culture wise or business wise?

Right now, neither company can lay much claim on any of that, it will come in the next 5-6 years.