Should we worry?

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Bryan^H, Dec 30, 2008.

  1. Bryan^H

    Bryan^H Producer

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  2. Brandon Conway

    Brandon Conway captveg

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    The article is, IMO, bunk. Sales paces are beyond DVD in the timeline, and the Holiday sales point to a rather good success, even despite the economy.

    We'll know more with CES in a few days, but I see the outlook as rather positive, all things considered.
     
  3. CraigF

    CraigF Cinematographer

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    Sure the article may be (is!) bunk.

    But a caveat: you ought to look at DVD adoption rates. It was far higher/faster and has greater penetration than any major consumer entertainment device going back to at least the B&W TV. Yes, DVD player penetration even surpassed that of CD-only players by a significant amount. So comparing with DVD is not exactly the best example, if you want to show the success of BD at this point.
     
  4. Scott-S

    Scott-S Cinematographer
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    I would let the data speak for itself. Not some angry HD-DVD supporter.

    The December market share of Blu-Ray versus DVD was 14%
    Blu-ray.com - Over $60M Spent on Blu-ray Last Week

    The number 1 selling movie on Amazon for the last month has been a Blu-Ray disc. (Dark Night)

    Concidering this is the first year, Blu is doing great. Don't let sour the sour grapes folks get you down.

    My only worry is that if a lie is repeated often enough, people start to believe it (mis-quote from Babylon 5 [​IMG] )
     
  5. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    First year for what?
     
  6. TravisR

    TravisR Studio Mogul

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    No.
     
  7. Scott-S

    Scott-S Cinematographer
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    First year of Blu-Ray sales, post format war.
     
  8. Bryan^H

    Bryan^H Producer

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    I read in another post that for every Dark Knight, or Iron Man that does great, many other releases will never recoup their production cost. Those "other" releases are the majority.
    And there is one valid point to this: Price.
    Lets face it Blu-Ray discs are not cheap. Times are troublesome, and even I'm picking my titles carefully these days. This can hurt sales even more.
    I'm not playing chicken little here. Given Sony's massive financial woes, I am a bit worried.
     
  9. Travis Brashear

    Travis Brashear Screenwriter

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    When Blu-ray is equalling, or even surpassing, DVD's adoption numbers? Why would that be a bad example???
     
  10. Scott-S

    Scott-S Cinematographer
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    LOL, this thread, like the others that came before, is turning into the same old stuff.

    Everything said here was said many times before whenever someone says that Blu-ray is failing.

    I am just as guilty. [​IMG]

    Look, it is just too early to tell. The studios obviously don't feel like Blu is doomed. They are pumping out titles faster than I ever dreamed they would. I wouldnt think they would be doing this if they were not making money.
     
  11. JonZ

    JonZ Lead Actor

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    I went to pick up Kung Fu Panda and JFK on saturday and have to say I was suprised how many blurays were on the shelves at Best Buy. The shelves were packed.

    I almost didnt go because I figured their stock would be low right after Xmas.

    Glad I did.
     
  12. troy evans

    troy evans Screenwriter

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    I read this artical before. This artical was posted back durning the end of summer. The date on the artical has changed, but, the content remains the same. When this artical was posted before I particularly made note of the "smoking dope" line. That's not something a respectable reporter says. Like Scott-S said, we're rehashing months old arguments. Blu-ray is doing damn well.
     
  13. CraigF

    CraigF Cinematographer

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    Well, those numbers are all over the place as reported, depending by who and where. So we *don't really know*, because we don't believe everything posted on the web/newspapers/etc. since they are usually trite little bites for easy consumption with few pertinent facts as to the raw data.

    What I meant was, JIC it's not as good as the most optimistic numbers suggest right now, comparing with DVD is not the greatest comparison because I doubt many people will say color TV, CD, cassette, VHS etc. were "failures" and they weren't adopted nearly as quickly as DVD (as measured on a timeline by % household penetration in the U.S.). IOW *speed* of adoption can't be directly tied to "success".

    So I'm not worried, some things just take longer to catch on. In the case of BD, it could reasonally be expected to lag penetration by HDTV, and that is not even 25% in the U.S. yet based on Oct./08 numbers (if we believe they're in the ballpark).
     
  14. RickER

    RickER Producer

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    I was in Best Buy the other day, and i was NOT alone in looking at Blu-ray discs. I didnt buy anything, but others were.

    I am not worried.
     
  15. Edwin-S

    Edwin-S Producer

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    The same argument could be applied to DVD. I doubt the majority of DVDs released recover their production costs either, even with their lower price point.
     
  16. Southpaw

    Southpaw Supporting Actor

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    If there was one thing that Ron, myself and others who attended the HTF Hollywood event learned, it was that studios are behind Blu-ray 100%+. It's not going anywhere any time soon. Tons and tons of effort, manpower and dollars are being used and spent every day to ensure the format succeeds.
    I have no worries.
     
  17. Paul Arnette

    Paul Arnette Cinematographer

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    Don't worry, be happy.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. Loregnum

    Loregnum Stunt Coordinator

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    Anyone who says blu-ray is dead is well, insane.

    Obviously it won't take off like DVD did but nobody should expect that since lu-ray requires an HD display and many people are just generally content with DVD regardless if they can get better. Still, that doesn't mean the format is a failure or is going to die.

    Catalog titles on blu are obviously not going to sell that great since they cost more and many have no desire to upgrade their DVD copies but new movie sales on blu clearly show there is a good demand for the product.

    If people want to compare blu says they should be doing only so on new titles and not factoring in catalog sales.
     
  19. Rolando

    Rolando Screenwriter

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    Great point about catalog sales.

    I have no doubt BD will be around for a while. I would be ok with niche but I know it will definitely go mainstream. might be 3-4 years rather than next year but it will be around under one form or another.
     
  20. frankie108

    frankie108 Stunt Coordinator

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    Don't let yourself get into a tizzy worrying about such matters.
    I mean, really...what's the worst case scenario; that Hollywood abandons Blu-ray??? Well, if they do, it's because another and better form of HD technology has simply displaced it. That doesn't sound too bad does it especially if it means more titles and cheaper prices for the same goods???
     

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