I disagree with you because the market has changed now for software and people won't buy a product that is not priced competitively and if that product doesn't move enough units to justify the cost of getting it ready for a HDM release, I don't see it happening in the immediate future.
I can't see any retailer signing up for the administrative headaches such a scheme would entail.
I agree that if there's going to be anything, it will most likely be some kind of a coupon against a new BD player for current HD-DVD owners. Yeah, a lot of us don't have our UPCs anymore, but there's other PoPs that can be used - cover page of the manual, for example.
While it's true that the swap-out Warners title drive is more for purple than red folks (I'm purple, so I'm less entrenched either way), the swap-out still makes sense in terms of garnering grass-roots studio loyalty amongst the early HDM adopters. These are the people willing to spend $10-$40 per HDM title, why not offer a trade-in (time limited window, of course) for those who don't mind swapping out as many of the HD DVD version for the BD version of a Warners title that the early adopter owned? You aren't forced to swap out all your HD DVD titles, just the ones you feel you weren't giving anything up(in terms of features, lossless audio, etc), and then you don't have to be as worried as to when your HD DVD player kicks the bucket in a few years after the dust has settled and the CE manufacturers have moved onto primarily BD players or perhaps combo players, and then you're left scrambling to find a HD DVD player off Ebay, Craig's List, etc. (or just finally re-buying those titles in BD if you want to watch it again, or hoping they still make combo players - I remember the LD days, and I hope I learned my lesson from the aftermath of LD=>DVD migration).
If you swap the HD DVD version out now for the BD version, you have a longer horizon for viable BD player offerings in the future (unless you believe everything is going the downloadable route, then just don't buy anything at all and just wait for cheap affordable internet access at break-neck speeds).
I think retail stores would welcome any idea that gets people in their stores, and promotes store loyalty in terms of becoming the main supplier to potential HDM customers. It may be a little logistical work up front (during the time window for the swap-out promotion), but it could pay off later in terms of continual sales to this jilted HDM fanbase in the future.
It'd be up to Warners to do the swap-out idea (they didn't force anyone to buy a piece of hardware to play their HD DVD offerings), but the BDA would be the ones who would implement a hardware voucher for HD DVD player owners (not Warners) towards a BD player purchase, so let's not get all venomy towards Warners if they did try to offer a few nuggets in trade for those on the red side of things. I understand it would cost Warners a pretty penny to produce all those swap-out BDs, but they did receive a nice chunk of change (either in real money or other means of windfall to go blu), so it'd be nice if they used some of it to reach out to their customer base.
The part of me that still hasn't caught up to the end of the format war thinks there will definitely be some sort of retail trade-out engineered so that each trade is somehow counted as a sale, thereby creating many a press release trumpeting the overwhelming consumer response to the end of the format war, all on the backs of previously purchased HD DVDs.
But really, at this point, they have no more need for such press releases.
I can't see WB bearing the brunt of any trade in program. It would have to be a BDA thing. It could be either $ off a player or get an additional X number of titles by mail with purchase of a player.
This won't be a popular comment, but I'm a little played out on freebie software (in no small part due to HME), especially when it likely would be pre-selected or restricted to a group of titles that aren't as attractive to me a what I really want.
Hardware discount please (even though I agree with what Cappelletty said many posts ago about this whole notion of corporations being magnanimous about this).
I suppose could take some of that 450 mil payout and cover the change over costs. But as callus as Warner was in not protecting the consumer by announcing their decision prior to the Holiday season before the holiday purchasers laid out their cash, I tend to think Warner (and/or the other studios) will do nothing at all.
No, the enthusiast market is large enough and dedicated enough where we would pay $39.99-$49.99 for titles - excluding the discounts that would be available online.
We like to think we wouldn't, but most of us would. We may not buy as much, but they would sell enough titles to support the business.
But no, it won't happen in the immediate future. And it would only possibly happen if it were to stay a niche market and the studios lose interest.
Posted by Robert Crawford: I can only agree that people will pay those prices if it stays a niche market. I was a LD enthusiast, when discs were regularly $29.99 to $39.99 (often more for "special" releases). However, I knew I was a niche buyer then and that LD would never gain mass acceptance. I may have even enjoyed my elite status, as one who knew LD was (then) the only way to enjoy movies in their OAR and with great sound. Now that a movie can be had for $5 with OAR and great sound, the masses will experience sticker shock at the prices you quote.
Times are different. The studios are very impatient. They want to return to the days when they were making huge amounts of dollars. They are not going to give it 6 years. If blu-ray does not show vast improvement in 2 years then support for it will be dropped by the studios. They are not going to support a niche format.
I've been purple for the last while but only because I won at the Casino and used the money to buy my PS3. My mindset now and for the last while was to only pick and choose the HD/BR movies that I really want, unlike my days with SD-DVD, when I used to buy 1 or 2 DVD's a week. Prices have gone through the roof on the software and we don't get the deals that those in the US get on amazon. I find myself watching more movies on the TMN HD channel. Picture looks great and audio is 5.1. I really don't think that BR will take off as well as the BDA thinks. The US economy is beginning to tank and their talking recession through 2009. When consumers hear about this, people start loosing their jobs, can't pay their bills, whose going to fork out $300+ for a new BR player and software costing $25+. 10 million players by end off 2008, I don't think so. Hell in Japan the Wii out sold the PS3 by a 3to1 margin.
To answer the original question, no I don't think there should be some sort of peace offering. At the end of the day, those who bought into HD DVD knew exactly what they were doing, the same as those who bought into Blu-ray; they were buying into a format that wasn't supported by every studio, with no guarantee that every studio ever would.
However, I think there will be some sort of offering as a PR exercise, because even though anyone who bought into this game is an early adopter (including those who bought into it for Christmas), the game now is about getting the mass market to adopt high definition.
Not a chance. I think those Blu-ray BOGO sales have cemented certain expectations among Blu-ray software buyers that all they have to do is wait a certain amount of time for the item to go on sale. Any BR title priced more than $19.99 is going to suffer. Sort of a "fallout' effect from the last quarter if you will. Also, the "enthusiast" has a much larger selection of choices to satisfy their cravings ie satellite and/or cable HD channels including pay-per-view as well as upconverting S-DVDs.
I think we're at a similar point in the life-cycle as with SD-DVD around 1999-2000. Players had been out for about 18 months, residing mostly in the hands of early adopters. Studios releasing a lot of action films to have a quick hit in the weekly sales. It took quite a while (until about 2004) to get the flood of classic / catalog titles. Warner Bros. was among the first of the big studios to put out desirable titles (new or catalog) on SD-DVD.
Studios are working with manufacturers to bundle discs with players, or subsidizing BOGO sales at (r)etailers. These incentives push consumers to buy specific titles, rather than the ones that they really, really wish to have; they just get "whatever's on sale" to try out on their players. Also, a lot of the early titles are action movies that make for an impressive demo / light-show on a big-screen HT. Good for in-store demos, and aimed squarely at the 25- to 44-year-old male demographic.
All I know is my wife keeps asking me, "when are they going to release Sleepless In Seattle?And I have to respond, Honey, you just don't count. Firstly...your a women and secondly, your not an "early adopter."Some people just don't get it do they. Anyway, she says it's OK for Warner's to keep the payoff if they would just hurry up and release, You've Got Mail. Ahhhhhhhhhh...such a forgiving soul.
A peace offering, are you kidding me. Every single person who invested in HD-DVD knew the risks. No way should Blu-ray pony up for someone else's choice. Bill Hunt's comments are laughable.