PS3 possibly delayed until spring 07, format war not game over , but game on

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by JohnPhi, Feb 23, 2006.

  1. Lew Crippen

    Lew Crippen Executive Producer

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    It does by your own analysis. You just choose to not care about this feature.
     
  2. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Lead Actor

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    Pete,

    while I agree with many of your sub-points, your conclusion seems to mix two logics.

    On the one hand, you're critical of early Blu-ray because it will use MPEG2, and you TOTALLY IGNORE that after VC1 becomes available on Blu-ray authoring (possibly as early as 6 months), that 50 gigs of storage can now offer a *significant* advantage over HD DVD's limits (in addition to Blu-ray's higher thru-put bandwidth, allowing for more audio options and mutitple-streaming video channels for applications like 3-D).

    So with BD you pick on a *short term* use of MPEG2 as if it's going to be that way forever, but in another point you're quick to point out that the "1080I" limit of HD DVD won't be there for long.

    Any reason why you're choosing to properly put that HD DVD problem in its "short term" context but not do the same for Blu-ray's points you criticize?

    Oh...and that comment about Blu-ray being "twice the price" of HD DVD? Yep...that's only "short term" as well. Once the PS3 is out, you'll have a Blu-ray movie player out at about the cost of Toshiba's bare-bones featureless HD DVD player but the PS3 will be a full-featured BD player.

    If you're going to play, play fair.

    Your phrase: "Why? Because Blu-Ray does not offer anything HD-DVD can't offer and Blu-Ray costs twice as much."

    is categorically untrue if you extend the same logic to both sides of the argument.
     
  3. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Stunt Coordinator

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    Who said the ps3 will be a full featured blu ray player. I doubt that as who would by a stand alone model? Remember the dvd player with ps2 was pretty featureless

    A lot of people over at dvd file are ordering HD DVD players. You can not ignore price, availability, and being first to market.

    Echoes of beta max are starting to show
     
  4. Pete T C

    Pete T C Second Unit

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    Sounds good to me. Now what's cheaper again, the PS3, the Toshiba standalone with likely higher quality video, or the $149 HD-DVD addon for the XBOX 360? [​IMG]
     
  5. Nils Luehrmann

    Nils Luehrmann Producer

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    I agree with Lew and David, but let me add a few more into the equation as well.

    Blu-ray not only has more capacity per layer, but it also has the capability to have more layers than HD DVD. TDK has already demonstrated a working 4 layer (100GB) prototype Blu-ray disc and are currently developing an eight layer (200GB) disc. HD DVD on the other hand is only capable of a maximum of three layers (45GB).

    Blu-ray is also capable of 50% higher bit rates than HD DVD.

    Blu-ray also uses TDK's highly regarded Durabis hard coating technology, the same used for TDK's Scratchproof DVDs. If you have not yet tried one of these discs, when you do, you'll quickly wish all your DVDs had this coating. You ca literally take a knife or screwdriver and scratch it all you like and the disc will play flawlessly. HD DVD on the other hand uses the exact same disc coating as current DVDs, and thus is far more susceptible to being scratched and thus causing playback errors.

    Blu-ray also has about a 10-1 ratio of support from consumer electronic manufacturers. If you want an HD DVD player, currently you have only one choice in manufacturers, Toshiba. The same company who had, and continues to have all sorts of design and quality control issues with their DVD players. While perhaps in a years time we might see a handful of other manufacturers come out with HD DVD drives, Blu-ray will likely have at least twice as many manufacturers to choose from, and perhaps even more than that.

    Then there is the all important studio support. Currently, only Universal (which has very few films in their library) is exclusive to HD DVD.

    While owning an HD DVD player will currently give you an exclusive opportunity to get multiple dipped by Universal AKA Re-Releasal... the same studio that has released over half a dozen different DVD editions of American Pie.

    Blu-ray on the other hand, will currently give you an exclusive opportunity to get titles in HD from the following studios:
    • 20th Century Fox
    • Columbia/TriStar
    • Disney
    • MGM (1986-)
    • United Artists
    • Orion
    • Motion Picture Corporation of America
    • Lion's Gate
    • Embassy Pictures
    • Buena Vista
    • Touchstone
    • Miramax
    • Dimension Films
    • Pixar
    • Hollywood Pictures
    • Artisan Entertainment
    • Republic Pictures
    • Vestron
    • Carolco Pictures
    • FHE Pictures
    • Destination Films
    • Soul Cinema
    • G2 Films
    • Sony Pictures Classics
    • Screen Gems
    • Triumph Films
    • Animax Entertainment
    • AXN
    • Adelaide Productions
    • Merv Griffin Entertainment
    • Barry & Enright Productions
    • Chuck Barris Productions
    • Bob Stewart Productions

    Currently the singular advantage to HD DVD is cost. However, even if we assume that will always remain the case, then the only way for cost to remain an advantage is if you have no plans on wanting any of the titles from the studios listed above, no plans on wanting an HD player from the many who are exclusively supporting Blu-ray, and have no interest in all of the performance advantages that Blu-ray has to offer.

    IMO, $??? spent on an HD DVD player means you'll have spent $??? more than you had to when you finally get a Blu-ray player. Thus, the cost advantage of HD DVD would really be a disadvantage, as it would end up being money you didn’t have to spend.


    I’m just curious. Where are you seeing this ”Big” momentum switch to HD DVD? Looking at all the forums and sites where early adopters tend to participate in shows that Blu-ray continues to have a significantly larger number of supporters than HD DVD, and by sizeable margins. Of course, considering all the advantages of Blu-ray, the disadvantages of HD DVD, it isn’t really hard to understand why this has been, and continues to be the case.
     
  6. Pete T C

    Pete T C Second Unit

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    Where is the momentum? Well, first lets look at this article published in the New York Times, which has a far larger reader base than all of the forums you read combined:

    "In Sony's Stumble, the Ghost of Betamax"
    http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/26/bu...ewanted=1&_r=1

    Second, we just got news a couple of days ago that Disney is probably going to release HD-DVD as per their CEO.

    Third, LG is no longer Blu-Ray only and is now supporting HD-DVD.

    Fourth, PS3 has been delayed and it is even likely now that Microsoft will release their HD-DVD addon for the XBOX 360 (and perhaps bundle it with 360s) before PS3 even gets out of the gate.

    Fifth, HD-DVD now seems to have locked the PCDVD/HTPC market as HP has shifted their main focus to HD-DVD since only HD-DVD supports HP's iHD and on top of that Microsoft will only be officially supporting HD-DVD in the upcoming Windows Vista Operating System and their XBOX 360.

    Sixth, on this message board and many of the others you are seeing people take the attitude "Forget waiting years until the format war is over, I want to use my HDTV now and HD-DVD can let me do that without breaking the piggy bank." HD-DVD simply offers the same thing for a better value, and that is very hard to deny.
     
  7. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Lead Actor

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    Well, for starters it will output full 1080P....
    It will most likely also handle the interactive layer of BD...realize that the first-gen HD DVD players don't even handle Microsoft's iHD layer.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Pete T C

    Pete T C Second Unit

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    I'll also put money on the Toshiba HD-A1 outputting 1080i looking much better than a PS3 outputting 1080p even on a 1080p set. We all saw how dreadful the PS2 looked with DVD when it came out compared to standalone players, I don't expect PS3 to be any different if Sony doesn't plan to sink into the ocean in debt.
     
  9. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Lead Actor

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    I'd like my first-generation HD titles to be VC1. But even more important to me is that 1-2 years from now, when VC-1 authoring is available for BD, having the ability to use 50-100 gigs of same-side storage and higher bandwidth for applications such as multiple video streaming for 3-D, seasons sets in HD on a single disc, and video commentary.
     
  10. Pete T C

    Pete T C Second Unit

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    All of that sounds very nice in theory. However we all know that studios will push multi-disc sets the same way they do now because consumers believe they are getting more for their money. All of the other things you mentioned to be honest are things consumers really don't care about, and won't play a factor in the adoption of either format.

    Let's be honest, for most of us here the real investment is the actual MOVIES, not the player with the size of our movie collections. While I don't debate Blu-Ray offers some advantages over HD-DVD, I will debate that people won't pay double the price for those advantages. Some real tech buffs might, but they make up like 5% of the market at most. I believe HD-DVD, because of the points I continue to outline, will be the format that the mass market chooses - and that, in the end, is what truly matters.
     
  11. Nils Luehrmann

    Nils Luehrmann Producer

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    Apparently you didn't get the memo. Currently the mass market has absolutely no interest in either of these formats, and probably won’t be interested for several more years. The vast majority of the mass market doesn't even own an HD display, let alone have a burning desire to invest thousands of dollars in HD media. The mass market is driven by the three C's; Cost, Content, and Convenience. Even your so-called bargain priced $500 HD DVD is 10x the costs of your average entry-level DVD player and it has a less than .1% of the content on SD DVDs.

    Make no mistake about it, SD DVD will be far outselling HD DVD for many years to come, and that for either HD DVD or Blu-ray to succeed they will have to win over the HD performance minded early adopters. In this regard, Blu-ray is clearly winning the war, and evidence of this is plentiful should you wish to actually look for it.

    I can see you have your mind set on HD DVD, and no amount of logic or actual evidence is going to change your mind, so good luck with that choice, and I hope you wont be too disappointed should a time come where you end up buying a Blu-ray player.
     
  12. Shawn Perron

    Shawn Perron Supporting Actor

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    Courtesy of Jaun C from another thread:


    The biggie there is only 10,000 players initially. Not exactly a figure to inspire fear into the Blu-Ray camp. The PS3 alone will create an instant installed base of 1 million players when it launches. This is on top of whatever number of players the BDA manufacturers can move. Unless Toshiba can drastically ramp up production, I don't even see how they can compete.
     
  13. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Lead Actor

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    They make up 5% of the market for a long-term, established, commodity product like DVD is today after about 10 years of market pentration.

    In 1997 when DVD was first launched, that same group made up about 99% of the buying force for DVD.
     
  14. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Lead Actor

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    This is grossly misinformed. Toshiba has stripped out features and HD DVD spec-performance items from their initial players and is selling them below manufactured cost taking a $$$ loss on each player in a desperate attempt to grab some part of the high-def disc market.


    The BD players announced thus far have not been featureless and priced at a loss.

    Should someone in the BD camp get scared and feel the need to play Toshiba's game, I suppose they can strip out functions and features and offer a similar below-cost BD option. If anyone can wait for the PS3, they'll get their below-cost Blu-ray player *with* many features lacking on Toshiba's budget units (like 1080P and support for the interactive layer, for instance).
     
  15. Ed St. Clair

    Ed St. Clair Producer

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    The term "Early Adopter" as been abused for far to long.
    The technological breakdown of adoption is;

    The first 2% of the adopters are the "Innovators".
    The next 15% of the adopters are the "Early Adopters".
    The next 34% of the adopters are the "Early Majority".
    The next 34% of the adopters are the "Late Majority".
    The last 15% of the adopters are the "Laggards".

    People here (and on other forums) use the term "EA" when making a point that is really about "Innovators". As well as people use the term "EA", when they are defining "Early Majority".

    To be clear;
    "EA's" will not be purchasing the first HD disc players, "Innovators", will.
    If you have a five year old plasma without a digital input, you are not a "EA". If you have a three year old digital display w/o HDCP, you are not a "EA".

    OK!
    What does this have to do with the War of HD?
    "Innovators", the two percent, that everyone so often misconscrews as "EA's", are going to be innovative. Meaning; They are going to buy the first HD players, no questions asked.
    These are the same folks that brought a 40" plasmas for $40,000US, that look terrible today. These are the same people that payed $1000US for the first CD player, that today you'd be hard pressed to get a hundred dollars for. They paid $5000US for the first SACD (no hyphen back then) player, now you have to 'go' to Europe to get discs.

    These "Innovators" will buy an HD player, then another HD player, then another HD player. All at price points that would choke a horse. And all without features that if you waited a minute, would not only be available, butt at a lower price point as well.

    The forums are made up mostly of "EA" & "EM", even so, us fine folk are not the cutting edge. I wish I was the deciding factor in this war. I wish that many of you, were the deciding factor in this war.
    We'll have as much pull in this fight as we had with DVD players (only one company ever released my dream DVD unit) & DVD software (where it is still not uncommon to see an non-OAR release).
    We may care the most, yet we are way down on radar of cutting edge & mass market forces.
    To bad, cause we could help make this an even more impressive hobby (lifestyle, for most of us! ;-) ).

    Now back to the infighting of how 'our' opinions count! :-o
     
  16. Randy Korstick

    Randy Korstick Producer

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    Exactly! The early $500.00 HD-DVD bargain players will be just that. They will be the equal of the bargain no-name DVD-Players that stores like Wal-Mart used to feature, the ones that with steady use would die in a year or two. So even if you buy one of these $500.00 bargain players and you were really happy with HD-DVD in about a year or two later you will be upgrading to a $700-$800.00 HD-DVD player that works better, has better video and audio qulity and has better features. By that time Blu-Ray players will be the same price. So the whole price factor is a non-point and not an advantage for HD-DVD. As it was also pointed out $500.00 is way over the price the average consumer will spend on an HD-DVD player when they can get a DVD player for $50.00 with way more titles to chose from. It is the technofiles who care about, quality, features and specs 1st and will pay $1,000.00 instead of $500.00 if one player has what they want and the other doesn't because they know they will never be satisfied with the cheaper player and end up buying both if they go cheap 1st. Still can't see this format war lasting past 2007 which is when I plan to buy a Blu-Ray player.
     
  17. Juan C

    Juan C Second Unit

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    It has long since my belief that one of the more affluent members of the "axis of HD DVD" might be subsidizing this. After all, 300 x 10,000 = 3,000,000. That is candy money for a company worth 300 billion. [​IMG]
     
  18. Nils Luehrmann

    Nils Luehrmann Producer

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    No offense intended, but while your definitions and percentage breakdown is interesting, and in some cases quite accurate, there is no specific definition or breakdown as you laid out. That's simply an opinion. There can't be a specific definition and or breakdown because with every product those definitions must be modified, and of course those percentages will vary drastically.

    That being said, semantics aside, I think the majority of HTF members understand that not all "early adopters" are equal, nor do they all fit the same consumer model.

    Now let us assume for a moment that we accept your definitions and percentages, the point many are making, and it is a legitimate point in my opinion, is that it will be the 15% Early Adopters that will decide the outcome of this war.

    Clearly, the so-called "Innovators" account for such a small percentage of sales, and will likely purchase both formats. It is the "Early Adopters" that will account for the majority of the initial sales over the first couple years. The majority of these consumers will likely decide which format they prefer based on a great deal of research with a specific emphasis on performance, features, and content.
     
  19. Ed St. Clair

    Ed St. Clair Producer

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    Thanks for begrudgingly accepting, not my definitions, the industries definitions. You have still misread the statistics of industry definition for a successful product. It takes twenty percent market share penetration for a product to be deemed successful. In other words, the new product has to be in use in 20% of the household (or in the case of car audio CD players, cars) to be considered a successful replacement for the product that proceeded it. You are not only short five percent with your "15% Early Adopters that will decide the outcome" prediction, you are not even considering that not all of the "EA's" will chose the same format. Therefore, the deciding factor in this war, then falls apon the "Early Majority". And how do you, or anyone else (even the industry) know where this third consumer wave will throw it's alliance.

    If your only talking about HD on disc being a niche, then all bet are off. But the "Innovators", will have much more of a say in that small market as well.
    The "Two Percenters" rule product releases, what can I say?

    Another links that defines "EA's"
    http://whatis.techtarget.com/definit...127868,00.html
    http://www.technobility.com/docs/article032.htm
     
  20. JeremyErwin

    JeremyErwin Producer

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    Having waded through hundreds of amir's posts in an effort to find this definitive statement, I'm not sure that your choice of words is entirely appropriate. In any case, I'll wait for the hardware reviews.
     

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