PS3 possibly delayed until spring 07, format war not game over , but game on

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by JohnPhi, Feb 23, 2006.

  1. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Stunt Coordinator

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    This is from the bits


    There's some interesting Blu-ray Disc news today. On Friday, Wall Street brokerage firm Merrill Lynch issued a report suggesting that the launch of Sony's Blu-ray compatible PlayStation 3 console could be delayed as much as a year from the company's initially anticipated Spring 2006 target date. We'd been hearing that the launch might be pushed back to November, but this could mean Spring 2007. What's worse, some cost estimates place the launch production cost of each PS3 unit as high as $900 ($230 for the Cell processor alone, along with another $350 for the Blu-ray Disc drive). That would mean a likely retail price for consumers at between $700-800. The news has set Sony's stock falling and actually impacted the entire Tokyo stock market on Monday. Sony has denied these reports, but has yet to announce official details on launch date and price. Ouch. You can read more here at Gamespot.



    If this happens, it is a MAJOR blow to Blu Ray competivity to HD DVD which alread is good to go and at a LOW start price
     
  2. WillG

    WillG Producer

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    Yeah this could be bad if true. The PS3 looked like it could have been a major Trump card for Blu-Ray. But if they cannot get it out this year and at a reasonable price it could give HD-DVD a big boost.
     
  3. Rolando

    Rolando Screenwriter

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    If studios start jumping ship and/or start dual support then we know we are in trouble.

    damn you Sony, why did you have to go and muck things up!
     
  4. Juan C

    Juan C Second Unit

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    Sony's response:

    http://ps3.ign.com/articles/690/690176p1.html

    PS3 Still on Target For Spring 2006
    Sony claims no PS3 launch change, but admits possible delay.
    by Anoop Ganayat
    February 20, 2006 - Sony Computer Entertainment has reaffirmed its aim to release the PlayStation 3 in spring. However, it has also admitted that some areas of the system's specifications have yet to be finalized, and if finalization is delayed, the system's launch could be pushed back.

    [...]
     
  5. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Stunt Coordinator

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    LOL and you believe them
     
  6. Juan C

    Juan C Second Unit

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    I didn't say I did. Just as I didn't say I believe the ML analyst. I just added that other news for completeness sake so that all the forum members have all the information available.

    BTW the Merrill Lynch report can be found here: http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/276873_0.PDF
     
  7. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Stunt Coordinator

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    i am sorry did nt mean it harsh, just joking around
     
  8. Glenn Overholt

    Glenn Overholt Producer

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    I think it is funny too. What's wrong with a good laugh?

    I think this is what happens when too many people are getting info from too many sources. If I have this right, the new desk top HD players aren't out because AACS rules still haven't been finalized.

    Well, if the 'rules' aren't done yet, how can anything come out with a drive like that? (Yes, I think the PS3 will have the same restrictions on it that the HD players will have).

    As for 2007, that would be a disaster. The same goes for the high prices. It's like - hey, let's say that they will be too expensive too and watch Sony's stock go down! [​IMG]

    Glenn
     
  9. Rakesh.S

    Rakesh.S Second Unit

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    this format war is getting worse by the day.

    I have lost all interest in next gen. I guess I'll survive off DVDs and HD movies on tv, if they're OAR.

    No matter who wins, we lose.
     
  10. BrettGallman

    BrettGallman Screenwriter

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    I'm more upset that I might have to wait another year to play the PS3! Oh well, gives me more time to save up I guess.
     
  11. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Stunt Coordinator

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    If the PS3 is dealayed beyond the summer, that may be enough of one to really hurt. HD DVD has time and price on their side if a delay occurs.
     
  12. BrettGallman

    BrettGallman Screenwriter

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    Well, the PS3 was never supposed to come out here in the US until this fall. I think this delay may actually be referring to the Japanese launch, which means we won't see it over here until NEXT fall. So, if there's any truth to this, this delay will be far beyond just this summer.
     
  13. DaViD Boulet

    DaViD Boulet Lead Actor

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    Good point Brett.

    Though is it possible that Sony might condense the time between the traditional Japanese and US launch to help make up the difference?

    Even if the PS3 is slightly delayed, it's ability to help leverage the BD market will be real enough once it's for sale.
     
  14. Paul_Scott

    Paul_Scott Lead Actor

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    all i keep hearing about on the Bd side is the PS3.
    what about Pioneers players? what about non PS3 Sony players?
    Can't these come out in the interm to stoke the embers a bit until the 2 ton gorilla comes down?

    i realize the large almost instantaneous base that you get with PS3, but i was considering buying a Bd player, but no way in hell i was using a game console as the transport in my HT...i just want a good quality dedicated set top box.

    any ballpark idea of when i would be able to get that?
     
  15. Ken_F

    Ken_F Stunt Coordinator

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    The $1800 Pioneer and $999 Samsung are now expected in June; the others are expected late July - October.
     
  16. Kelly Grannell

    Kelly Grannell Second Unit

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    US$999 for a Samsung unit... a SAMSUNG!
     
  17. Shawn Perron

    Shawn Perron Supporting Actor

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    Truthfully it doesn't matter when it launches in the US. Unless you are a hardcore game fanatic, it's going to be the same situation the XBOX 360 had. Without a preorder or waiting in line overnight, you will not get a PS3 until sometime in March 2007 or later assuming a November 2006 launch.

    We can only judge it's impact with your average consumer when it's readily available to pick up in a store. Generally that's about a 3 to 5 month difference from the actual hardware launch.
     
  18. Ryan-G

    Ryan-G Supporting Actor

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    This doesn't change anything at all.

    Currently, by all reports, less than 10% of the market has HDTV's. So, when Hd-DVD releases, if it sold to every single HDTV owner it'd still have less than 10% of the total market.

    In a month, or a quarter, or a year, PS3 will release. Blu-Ray will immediately gain a huge amount of market share of not only the HDTV installed base, but the future HDTV installed base, literally overnight.

    People without HDTV's won't buy HD-DVD, but they will buy PS3's.

    HD-DVD is still not in any better position today than they were last week.

    The *only* thing HD-DVD has going for it is Microsoft. Microsoft can turn this battle around, if they choose to, but so far they haven't put much effort into it.
     
  19. BrettGallman

    BrettGallman Screenwriter

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    Yes, but the question still remains: how many of those people are going to actually use their PS3 as a BD player, at least enough to the point where their purchasing power affects the format war? PS3 does not necessarily equal Blu-Ray marketshare. That equation only holds up if people actually by Blu-Ray movie software. Given that, I do think it's safe to assume that the PS3 will affect things somewhat, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it's an automatic thing. It's really a hard thing to predict at this point, and it's been debated in several threads already. So, in the end, we'll just have to wait and see. I'm in Paul's boat: I want a PS3, but I also want a stand alone player, so this news only negatively affects me as a gamer. Bring on the stand alone players already. [​IMG]

    And David, that's a good point about condensing the time between launches; it's possible Sony will go for a worldwide (or at least Japan/US) simultaneous release, like Microsoft did, so if this delay is true, we might only see about a four to five month delay on this side of the world.
     
  20. JohnPhi

    JohnPhi Stunt Coordinator

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    Well look back at the poll thread and the questions was asked who will be jumping into the format and with whcih product. Almost all who said Blu Ray said through the PS3. HD DVD does have something going for it, price. 1800 dolalrs vs 500? or even 1000 vs 500, which will jsp pick?

    I do realize that many jsp people won't buy either, but a lot will.

    I also agree that the ps3 will sell a lot of units, but what if the price is 700 - 800? I had questioned the abilityh to sell a decent player for 500 while your stand alone units were double or even triple that cost. I mean, I don't buy it. Keep in mind that just because they bought a ps3 for games does not mean that they can be counted as a blu ray supporter. They could have by then bought an HD player and figure the ps3 is their game machine.

    This format war is not over despite a lot of people's hopes
     

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