PS3: November $499 & $599 Configurations (1 Viewer)

[Kyle_D]

Nils, you know a lot about the HT industry, but that's hamstrung your view of the videogame market. You're looking at the PS3 from the perspective of an A/V enthusiast, not a mass-market/casual gamer.

First, saying that I'd be wrong if anyone other than the truly hardcore gamers and technophiles buys the system is ridiculous. I'm making a generalization. Of course there will be those outside those groups who buy the system, but those are the two groups who the PS3 is mainly going to appeal to.

Second, you clearly weren't paying attention to some of the hype Sony, specifically Ken Katuragi, had been giving the PS3. It was supposed to be the gaming system to end all gaming systems. It is supposed to integrate every aspect of our lives. I beg you, sometime read some of Katuragi's statements on the power of the machine (and his pre-release PS2 statements) and try not to laugh at the hyperbole. The PS3 is going to be 10,000 (! - literally) times more powerful than the PS2. Yeah, right. The PS3 was supposed to have graphics that blew away the Xbox360. So far, it hasn't displayed any and graphics experts say it isn't ever likely to. The PS3 is supposed to have an online system that blows away Xbox Live. We're still waiting for those plans. Most of the reports out of E3 have declared Sony the definite "loser" of the expo based on the high price of the PS3, the Wii rip-off controller, the lackluster display of playable titles...it goes on and on.

 

[Ken Chui]

*At least for the owners of the 60GB model.

Traditionally, add-on accessories haven't fared particularly well sales-wise, and this is likely to be true of the HD-DVD attachment. We can safely assume that the price point for the drive won't be on par with the HDD accessory available now for ~$100. I still believe that Microsoft, in its haste to reach market first, made a mistake by not including an HD-DVD drive from the onset. Although developers have yet to fill DVDs with content, space may become an issue as the platform matures (it already has for a couple of Japanese developers). Movie viewers won't reap the benefits of HD-DVD presentations for the reasons Nils stated (though the lack on an HDMI output in the 20 GB PS3 puts these owners in the same boat ). Then again, it's not as if J6P has kept abreast of the HD technolgies, nor is he capable of making that distinction, which is why the Blu-ray consortium (and not just Sony) needs to educate the public; suffice to say, it will be a monumental challenge, but it could pay dividends for Sony (and its partners) if it's done right.

 

[Derek Ambrose]

Promotion is where including BD in the PS3 will benefit the other companies and studios backing the format. Some of the promotions for the console can be focused around Blu-Ray and its advantages etc. As far as educating the J6P's more will probably know about Blu-Ray over HD-DVD by the end of the year. I live in Toronto and the promotions for HD-DVD have been dismal. The most I have been exposed to are radio ads for Best Buy and Toshiba.ca but when you go to Best Buy they have..... nothing.

I own a 360 and wish Microsoft had waited for HD-DVD just for game size. We can pretend that it is not a factor, but when you think about it some of the most common complaints about recent games that are both really nice looking and linear is that they are too short. That said after E3 I have gone from planning on a PS3 to absolutely getting a Wii (MP3... hooray!)

Derek

 

[Ken Chui]

I can't help but wonder if some of us haven't lost our sense of humour. I've listened to my fair share of conferences through the years, and if it's one thing I've learned, it's to never take anyone for their word. I think some statements were made in jest (tongue-in-cheek, if you will) and are expressed solely for the purpose of generating a favourable response from the audience, rather than something based on fact (which can be dull and uninteresting). A layperson can't translate hard figures as it relates to theoretical or actual performance, but if you provide analogies that they might be able to relate to, you've succeeded in drawing their attention. Is Kutaragi different from any salesperson you've ever met? The pitch may not match the product, but over the long haul, does it really matter? Not every statement made should be translated literally; if it did, you'll set yourself up for a lifetime of disappointment.

If the graphics on the PS3's early offerings fall short of one's expectations, is that the fault of Sony, the developers or both? John Carmack, in a G4TV interview, did state that the PS3 offers more theoretical peak performance than the 360, but he chose the 360 because Microsoft offered better development tools. We need to remember that MS' strength has been its software, whereas Sony's focus has been hardware-related, which is why IBM is involved with the creation of middleware tools to facilitate easier programming with the Cell processor. Harnessing the power of the PS3 will take time, but it's also up to the developer to apply these tools to the end product; whether they're willing to invest the time and resources needed is another matter.

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Kyle I think your missing the point, and that was how much you are exaggerating the facts.

. Yet that somehow ignores the fact that hype over the key factors such as 1080p support, Blu-ray drive, core processor, 20GB (now 60GB) HD, Ethernet, bluetooth, etc have all so far turned out to be true… well at least for now and at least for the premium model.

If we are going to go into the realm of begging… I beg you to stop grossly exaggerating the facts in order to make your point. I think you’ll find that you’ll be far more effective in getting your point across if you do. You may even find that on many points I actually agree with you.

After all, you make fun of Katuragi's exaggerated comments, and yet that is precisely what you have been doing in this thread, only with an opposing position. If you are so put off by what he says, you should be equally disappointed with several of your own statements as well.

 

[Kyle_D]

Nils,

I know what I've been saying and I think it's pretty clear that my statements have been generalizations and, in some cases (the game system to end all games systems) exaggerations. However, I'll take the time to clarify some of them, as the earlier post was written in a hurry.

Katuragi's insistence that neither the PS2 or PS3 be referred to as game machines is documented. Both systems, he argues, were conceptualized as entertainment hubs that would integrate every aspect of our digital (a key word I accidentally and regretfully left out) lives. That's great if they were conceptualized that way, but the PS2 never turned out to be much more than a game console that could double as a pretty poor DVD player. Remember when it had the potential to replace the PC?

http://archives.cnn.com/2000/TECH/co...on.engine.idg/

Katuragi also did state the the PS3 would be many thousands of times more powerful than the PS2 in an interview with IGN shortly after that system's launch.


I merely pointed out that Katuragi's exaggeration played a role in overhyping the PS3 amongst gamers. I never said I was bothered or put off by exaggeration in general, or even Katuragi's exaggeration. Such is expected when trying to sell a product (or an opinion ), as Ken pointed out. I'm just of the opinion that in the case of Katuragi, it ended up backfiring. You feel my exaggeration backfires on me. C'est la vie.

And no Ken, I haven't lost my sense of humor, which is why I said "try not to laugh" at Katuragi's remarks

 

[Ryan-G]

But is that time they have? Sony's reporting half a billion dollar losses, and reportedly going to be selling PS3 for a $300-400 loss per unit. If developers are slow to learn, games are slow to release, and a console with less games is a less desirable console. Leaving Sony further in the hole.

If the $900 manufacturing price is accurate, Sony's got a massive problem on their hands. The *only* way they're going to move these boxes is to cut prices, but in doing so they increase losses, and the announced games for PS3 that are listed is a very small list. Nowhere near sufficient to make up for the loss in manufacturing costs, and that's assuming they all ship on time. Which is a fairly big assumption considering that Sony just started building proto-boxes in April.

I'll end my discussion with another pertinent link on the subject. One representing the impression of PS3 at E3. There are also fairly pertinent "News" items up at anandtech.com on the right side of the page, with comments reflecting people's impression. Basically, to summarize, PS3 is being hamstrung by it's price.

http://www.firingsquad.com/features/...ion_3_failure/

 

[Ryan-G]

Sorry for the back-back posts, but missed this one above.

While it is true that PS2 will not be obselete, it is also true that Graphics in part sell games, even moreso on Consoles than PC's. The lifespan of the PS2is likely a year. There's just never been an instance where a preceding console outlasted a succeeding one. Sega Master System -> Sega Genesis, Nes -> Snes, N64 -> Gamecube, PS -> PS2. All occured very rapidly. When a new console releases, preceeding ones get left behind.

To be honest, to sell PS3's Sony's gotta kind of downplay the PS2. What kind of advertising campaign would it be if they didn't advertise it as superior and give the impression that you don't want to keep the older box?

 

[Ryan-G]

Double posts, that really sucks. Sorry, truly not trying to spam the thread.

 

[Robin Warren]

"At last count, gamers under the age of 18, as in those most likely to have the console bought for them, are now the smallest gaming demographic. Face it, gamers have grown up and a good amount of them have the money to spend."


Does anyone have any concrete sources on this? I find this impossible.

I'll accept it and move on. So the people expected to purchase the ps3 are hardcore gamers, gamers who read up on the subject. The people who are ripping Sony apart on websites, newspapers and message boards across the country. If they have so much income as to make price a non-issue, then why is everyone up in arms about it?

 

[ChrisMatson]

Some gamer demographics:

http://www.games-advertising.com/ass...20Consumer.htm

I plan on getting the 60 GB PS3 at or near launch.

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Kyle, much better!

Ryan, excellent post as well, (edit - but the accuracy of the info you shared appears to be questionable)


Because not everyone is - not by a long shot. On the internet it is easy to jump to conclusions when you see a few people ranting and raving and assume everyone is, but that would be a drastic mistake to make. There are a lot of easily excitable (both in a good way and a bad way) fanatics in the gaming world and the format war between Xbox and PS3 fuels their fire resulting in all sorts of rants and raves all over the internet.

I suspect once the PS3 comes out sales will speak for themselves, but as long as there are diehard XB fans and diehard PS fans, there will always be these kind of hyperbolic ranting and raving posts to filter through in order to find accurate information.

 

[Ken Chui]

Sony and its third-party cohorts will be offering a steady stream of PS2 titles to tide folks over the next couple of years; when or if they're ready to take the step into HD gaming, they will have a wealth of software options. Sony's customers comprise the largest percentage of console owners, and until Microsoft or Nintendo unseats the sales leader, tapping into this userbase is still the safest assurance for likelihood of success.

 

[Nils Luehrmann]

Excellent post Ken, and a ton of helpful information as well, thanks! Glad to see this thread is trimming a lot of the internet hype and opening it up for some very well thought out discussions.

 

[Ryan-G]

While this is true, it doesn't account for a few things.

First, for Sony to market the PS3 they must create the impression that the PS2 is no longer "good". They can't market the PS3 and say "The PS2 is still good enough!", they've gotta market it as being better. In doing so, they create the impression in some unknown number of people's minds that the PS2 is no longer sufficient.

Second, there's never been a steady stream of support for a preceeding console. Every time a new console has released, the currently in development titles for the preceeding console were pretty much the last titles for that console.

Third, in order for a "Steady stream" of support to occur, some number of studios must remain preceeding generation, and some number succeeding generation. One of those two sets of studios is being setup for failure. One of those two generations isn't going to have a significant revenue stream. Either way that plays out, some set of studios is going to have very serious money problems in their immediate future.

Fourth, the cost. As you note above, a significant number of people will shift over to HDTV in the near future. 360 offers 720p gaming at half the price. Considering the recent survey that showed a large number of people are watching standard definition feeds on HDTV and think it's HDTV, I'm not sure the 720p vs 1080p difference will matter. Especially since most people don't have a clue what resolution really is in the first place.

Finally, I'll leave another link to Sony's biggest problem. It seems that Kutargi doesn't understand why everyone isn't cheering the PS3, and thinks that the price should be no problem.

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/706/706133p1.html

IMO, he has lost sight of the market.

 

[George_W_K]

There is some really great discussion going on here. Keep it up, guys.

I'll eventually buy a PS3, but not at launch. My 360 is performing well enough for me for now to hold me over for awhile. I will have to get my hands on Gran Turismo though. I love that series.

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will not be a factor for me. From past experiences, a stand-alone unit will be the better choice by far anyway.

I know that the new PS3 controls won't have rumble right now, but I hope that's something that can be changed in the future. That's a feature I'd really hate to be without.

 

[Random Hero]

I don't think it matters what Sony prices the console at. It will still sell millions very quickly. Playstation is ingrained into pop culture. There are a great deal more Playstation systems in homes than Xbox systems. Sony could make the PS3 $2,000 and it would still sell out everywhere and be impossible to get for 6 months or so. People love their Playstations.

You can say the same for Nintendo. People will buy their new systems no matter what. It's the only place to play games like Mario, Zelda, and Metroid. It'll sell well for that reason alone.

 

[Ryan-G]

There is no such thing as ingrained into culture with consoles, all it takes is one or two mistakes, or a lack of games and culture drops your console quickly.

Once Atari was in every home, One E.T. and one Pac-man later and Atari was at the bottom. The Sega Genesis was smacking around the Nes, until they kept releasing add-ons to compete with Snes instead of a new console. The Snes was king for a long while, until they turned down Sony's design for a next gen console and the Playstation kicked them around. The Jaguar was a superior system at it's time, but it lacked game support and died. Same with 3do.

Playstation 3 breaks the cardinal rule of Consoles. Price. There are two groups of people buying consoles, Parents and older gamers. Parents aren't about to drop $500-600 for a console, many older gamers have other expenses. Most people will likely take the "I'll wait for the price to drop" stance, which will be the death knell for PS3. Announcing a half a billion dollar loss already this year, and losing $300-400 dollars per box, Sony isn't going to have the time for people to wait.

What happens to Sony if the build 2,000,000 of these $900(Their cost) boxes and they sell sluggishly? What if it's 4,000,000 by Q1 2007?

What exactly is there going to be on the PS3 that will convince people to spend twice the amount of money other consoles cost? A small number of release titles? Honestly, how many people are going to drop $500-600 to play(Maybe) Metal Gear 4 and Grand Turismo 4?

I just really don't see this working well for Sony at all. There's no way "Brand loyalty" is going to drag millions of people into stores to buy the most expensive console ever to play a small handfull of release titles.

Nor will developers shell out the money to develop for a console with a low install base.

So it becomes a circle that I doubt they'll be able to exit.

 

[JackKay]

Paul Sweeting has put his 2 cents in concerning the two price configurations:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6334511.html

 

[Mark Bendiksen]

Nice post, Ryan, but you forgot to mention Intellivision's role in game console history.