Oscar Watch 2005 - pre-awards discussion (1 Viewer)

[Craig S]

No doubt, Elizabethtown has come out of Toronto pretty much dead as a major awards contender. It's not just Poland, either.

Mrs. Henderson Presents, OTOH, looks like a big winner out of Toronto, with many slotting Judi Dench as a Best Actress lock. Bob Hoskins is getting Supporting talk.

Adam_S's list of a few days ago looks spot on, although at this point I would swap the two films above.

Interesting thing about the Best acting categories. Pretty much every pundit out there has Philip Seymour Hoffman & Joaquin Phoenix as locks for Actor, AND Reese Witherspoon & Judi Dench locked into Actress. A good number of people would add Ralph Fiennes & Rachel Weisz to that list. Are there really only 2 slots in each of the major acting categories left open this early in the campaign?? This will be fun to follow.

 

[Adam_S]

yup, I didn't realize when I posted last night that the trades had already covered Elizabethtown. Variety gave a overall positive but much less than glowing review, it's certainly not an awards caliber review. Hollywood Reporter refrained from slamming it, but I'd say it's overall a negativereview.

OTOH Crowe's announced that the 135min cut at Toronto is a special extended festival cut (roadshow style) and it will be trimmed for theatrical release. I wouldn't count it out of major awards just yet (never know which way screenplay will fall) but editing can make all the difference for some films.

Variety also reviewed Walk the Line, it's sortof an apologizing for glowing while glowing about the movie. HR and DV both gave Capote near raves and HR was tougher on Brokeback Mountain than DV.

Mrs. Henderson presents certainly looks like the feel good contender along the lines of Chocolate.

I'd add David Straithern in Good Night and Good Luck to the best actor list, not as strong a lock just yet, but if the film performs well in LA/NY I'd say he's at least as strong a possibility as Fiennes.

Here's a crazy idea, Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe is probably not too likely to garner a best picture (after all it stars children), but what about Andrew Adamson in the sometime wildcard best director slot for delivering the industry films like Shrek as well as directing a big epic (always seen as an impressive job). He's certainly an interesting possibility, depending on the campaign he gets.

 

[teapot2001]

In Roger Ebert's new review of Crimes and Misdemeanors for his Great Movies list, he mentions that Match Point is one of Woody Allen's four best movies ever. Given that lots of people have been waiting years for Allen to make something great again, I think Match Point has a very good chance of being nominated.

~T

 

[Nathan V]

After seeing the domestic Geisha trailer (available on yahoo), I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it won't get nominated. I was not expecting the ethnic backgrounds of the actors to be as distracting as it really is (no, I'm not trying to revive THAT thread!), but the fact that we're looking at Chinese actors playing Japanese characters while speaking English goes beyond seeming odd; it feels downright bizarre. The melodramatic qualities of Sayuri's narration do not appear to carry over very well in spoken English. As an asian person, I am unfortunately unable to buy the suggestion that these are Japanese people. I would have much preferred it if they all spoke Japanese, Mel Gibson style. Hopefully people will not have as big a problem with the casting as I do. And Michelle Yeoh seems very out of place.

Dion Beebe's camerawork does look exquisite, though.

Good Night... is 93 minutes. Film Comment gave it a rave. The last film of the same length to win BP was 'Annie Hall' in '77. Before that, 'Marty,' in 1955. Driving Miss Daisy is 99 minutes.

Don't forget Philip Hoffman for Actor. The man WILL be nominated (IMHO)

Witherspoon, a lock? Wow! Times have changed.

Hollywood Reporter doesn't like Oliver Twist. Kirk Honeycutt: "The biggest surprise in Roman Polanski's "Oliver Twist" is that there are no surprises....his latest film adaptation of "Oliver Twist" -- well over 20 film and TV versions going back to 1906 are listed on IMDb -- trudges down the same worn path."

shame.

So for now, I'm going to say...

All the King's Men
The New World
Munich
Good Night
Jarhead(?)

Regards,
Nathan

 

[ThomasC]

Hopefully, the film crashes and burns so we never have go through something like it again.

 

[Craig S]

Hmm. I remember walking out of Robert Mulligan's brilliant but little-seen The Man In The Moon (which featured Witherspoon's extraordinary debut performance) over 14 years ago and saying to my friend "that little girl's going to win an Oscar some day".

I'm sticking with that prediction.

 

[Adam_S]

Toronto's come and gone, and the only casualty is Elizabethtown, and possibly Oliver Twist (muted responses of pleasure don't bode well). Mrs. Henderson Presents has picked more buzz than any other films from the fest but still not enough to make it a frontrunner--it still has a whole lot of legging it to do. Geisha looks like a train-wreck just waiting to happen and Brokeback Mountain looks like it'll be this year's movie the critics whine about for it not being nominated.

So with Toronto out of the way, it's pretty much a waiting game as critics see movies and write up fall previews for us to peruse...

 

[Adam_S]

Two things, the critical campaign for Good Night and Good Luck seems to have begun with the NYT, it's a small enough film it'll need to rely somewhat on critical praise from big institutions for a good oscar run, and the NYT gives it a rave review:

A.O. Scott review of Good Night, and Good Luck
Poland is calling four frontrunners right now:
Munich
Walk the Line
The New World
Mrs. Henderson Presents

with big question marks on Munich, Syriana, and New World

Oh and there's a trailer this week for the friendly looking The Family Stone, which Poland calls a solid dramatic movie with laughs being sold as a big burly broad comedy--certainly the trailer seems to kill any thoughts of any oscar contention on the part of the film, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Quentin]

Who is releasing GNGL? I don't think the actual film is BP worthy, but it's time to start looking at distributors and Oscar campaigns. Sometimes that is the real difference maker.

 

[Adam_S]

My thoughts on the current standings:

FRONTRUNNERS:
Good Night and Good Luck (good for the academy, but will the critics get behind it?)
Walk the Line (the clearest frontrunner so far)
Munich (can Spielberg overcome cynicism that he's chasing 93 and M$B?)


???:
The New World (70mm spectacle but can Farrell act?)
All the King's Men (will it work?)
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe (will the academy consider a film starring children?)
King Kong (will the academy consider a film starring an ape?)
Memoirs of a Geisha (looks like this year's biggest train wreck)
The Producers (looks like they filmed a play and not as funny as the original oscar winning film)
Brokeback Mountain (actor nominations seem strong, but it seems overly soapy for BP, unless it generates sympathy votes)
Syriana (don't know much about this)

LONG SHOTS (other noms instead)
The Constant Gardener (early release, low current buzz may settle for best director but needs a stellar rerelease push in late december)
Capote (easily actor, not so easily picture)
In Her Shoes (doesn't seem likely outside of the female categories)
Match Point (definitely a screenplay nom, but will it get a decent oscar run from a dying studio and an awards shy director?)
Family Stone (supposedly good, but the trailer sells it like a genial fam-com/MBFGW)

WILDCARDS (all or nothing)
Rent (will the academy embrace a 200$ million+ earning populist musical?)
Mrs. Henderson Presents (the academy will embrace it, but will the campaign take picture?)
Breakfast on Pluto (if Hedwig didn't, I don't think this can either)


OUT OF FAVOR
Oliver Twist (no amazing coincidences=less archetypes=less catharsis=less resonance=cinematography, not picture)
Elizabethtown (can editing and a frantic reshoot save it?)

 

[MatthewLouwrens]

Adam, what do you mean by Did Polanski make a few changes to the plot of Oliver Twist. It has been years since I read the book, in fact I honestly don't remember what happens in it, but I do remember that there were a few "amazing coincidences" that were pretty pivotal to the story, and I'm just wondering whether the story could work without them - whatever they are, since I can't actually remember what the coincidences were in the first place.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Have you already seen it then? Or are we still talking speculation on this one. (sincere question, not a snarky "how can you judge" comment)


On The New World, my question is not so much the acting by CF, but whether or not the film overstays its welcome. The trailer and Malick's other work have proven that he could slip into running it 30 minutes too long. It's tough for me to read the scale and scope of the film from the clips and plot I've already seen.

 

[Quentin]

Yes, I did see it. I thought I made mention...but, that must have been in another thread. I spend too much time here. I thought it was solid, but devoid of a 'bite' I usually look for in Oscar films.

I would agree that Walk The Line and Munich look like the frontrunners. Funny, since NOBODY has seen Munich yet.

Who is releasing Mrs. Henderson Presents and The Producers? Two films with pedigree and crowd-pleasing potential...maybe all they need is a good campaign. Same with All The Kings Men.

Capote looks to me like the indie that slips in, with GNGL and Brokeback being the other two potential small films.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Shoot, sounds like GNGL could be a bit of a Kinsey then. Around the area but just not enough punch.

One thing about Kings Men is I wonder if it won't be hurt by already having been a winner. I mean the benefit of following a proven formula is great, but that often also hurts films due to natural comparisons.

Cash is loved and the music will be strong, but does it suffer from being "another Ray"?

 

[kerrySan]

cinderella man all the way baby!

 

[Adam_S]

Heck, Munich hasn't even been cut yet, but Spielberg can easily operate in a tight time constraint.

Good night and Good Luck is a studio dependent, so Warner's Indie will be pushing it. Their only other film this year is Everything is Illuminated which won't get an oscar push, and while solid and nice and potentially a word of mouth building film (if you haven't read the book and are open to the drastic changes the film made), but not an oscar contender. Warner Bros. proper is pushing Syriana and North Country for oscar.



Mrs. Henderson presents will have all the power of Weinstein behind it.

Oliver Twist Oliver's mysterious birth is taken out, it opens on Oliver arriving at the work house. His familial connection in London including his uncle and his grandfather is also taken out. The gentleman that takes him in is instead just a kindly man. This is more realistic, but seemingly less effective, because all the reviews save John Irving's rave have been very muted. They all say it's a solid, gorgeous movie that really doesn't have much of anything going on outside of some overacting.

Cinderella Man is far too long ago, and had a less than enthusiastic response (it suffered from stiff competition and backlash to the 'see ME because I'm IMPORTANT and an oscar contender' vibe its marketing gave off) at the box office. It's studio may give it a seabiscuit style push, but I don't think the film can build traction to even be a maybe at this point.

Walk the line just feels right, I don't think it'll suffer from post-Ray syndrome.

All the King's Men trailer. click the third picture in the bottom row to bring up a trailer page, all the King's men link should be there.

Adam

 

[MatthewLouwrens]

Adam - Thanks for the information about Oliver Twist.
Coincidentally, this afternoon I was watching a Doctor Who DVD I just purchased, and one of the special features had someone closely connected with Who talking about his career, and he mentioned a BBC version of Oliver Twist he worked on, including discussion about a particular death scene. He was talking about this character and that character, and I was watching it thinking "I remember these names, I remember that this death occured, but I can't remember why or how it fits into the story."
So, following both this thread and that featurette, I have decided that I will go back and reread Oliver Twist. And I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Adam_S]

Good Night and Good Luck has fifteen reviews and is 93% fresh with only one negative review according to rotten tomatos. In Her Shoes has five reviews, all positive, and is currently at 100%

 

[Amy Mormino]

"Good Night and Good Luck" strikes me as one of those films which journalists and critics love, but which the public doesn't get behind. And it is hard, though not impossible, for a movie with low box office to get a Picture nomination.

I saw "Pride and Prejudice" last weekend and, while it did get pretty good UK notices, I don't see it as a big contender. Still, I didn't see "Seabiscuit" as a Picture nominee and I was wrong there. The film was good, but not great. However, Keira Knightley as Elizabeth was very fine and might be an Actress nom if the movie is well-received in the States.

 

[Adam_S]

Because of the content of fighting McCarthy plus a well-liked actor making good as a director I see it as an especially academy friendly film, much moreso than Breakfast on Pluto or Capote which are comparable small films this season. How it does at the end of the day with the press and the public is anybody's guess, but oscar history is riddled with small films collecting big nominations because they appeal to the academy more than they did to the public.

I'm catching a preview screening of In Her Shoes tomorrow night, in the meantime I've found a trailer of the currently low profile film I'm certain will walk away with best picture. Enjoy.