Okay - which will get the biggest box office - HP, LOTR or Monsters Inc? (1 Viewer)

[ScottR]

I think what is going to end up happening is that once Harry Potter comes out, only very young children (with their parents, of course:0) are going to see Monsters, Inc. It will not perform all that well after November 16. Harry Potter is going to go through the roof...and watch for the worldwide numbers to skyrocket. Harry Potter is our generation's Wizard of Oz, but it will do better than that film did at the box office (ah, my favorite film.) Lord of the Rings is not going to be a huge hit. People that I have talked to are not really that interested in seeing it.
My predictions for domestic grosses:
Harry Potter- $450 million
Monster's Inc.- $150 million
The Fellowship of the Ring- $120 million

 

[Jeff Kleist]

I think that kids will go see Harry Potter 3 times, and then will want more, and what's coming out right after? That's right, Fellowship! I think it'll start big, and then taper off, but FOTR is going to get a lot of repeat buisness, and word of mouth methinks.
I'm not predicting figures, but I fully expect Potter to touch $200 mil, and Fellowship to clear 100-150million easy. This will probably be matched by foreign, if not surpassed. Europe and Japan (where the books are hotter than the US) are probably going to do $100 million each by themselves
Jeff Kleist

 

[Rob Gillespie]

What are the ratings for these films? Fellowship will be a PG-13 - but what about Harry? If it's got a 'younger' certificate then it's bound to draw more money.

 

[Andrew W]

Although J6P doesn't know about LOTR (he doesn't read books, you know) I think this movie is going to have great word of mouth build up and will generate a new interest in the series among some of the less literary. Check out the bookstores, they are stocking up on Tolkien already with colorful sets, reprints and such....
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Andrew in Austin

 

[ChristopherS]

My community and the local ski hill does an annual Haunted Village for the families and children in the area (huge turn out - several hundred families). This was last night. Waiting in line my wife and I noticed that may children were dressed in costumes from the Harry Potter world. We were in discussions with several parents over how our children were excited that the movie was soon opening and how many times we would have to see it (the parents that read the series were also looking forward to seeing the movie). I did not hear anyone mention LOTR.
I predict Harry Potter to gross over $400 million. LOTR will gross over $250 million. Monsters Inc. is being drowned out by the Harry Potter excitement. It may do $150 million but it will need some excellent reviews and get most of its money before Harry Potter opens.
Chris

 

[Adam Lenhardt]

Although J6P doesn't know about LOTR (he doesn't read books, you know)

I don't really see the connection. I know tons of people who couldn't give a rat's ass about OAR that none the less read a quite impressive number of books.
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Potter is coming...

 

[Allen Hirsch]

Harry Potter will certainly be #1 of those three.
The audience "franchise" from the book series gives it a huge leg up, and it looks terrific in previews.
Monsters will suffer from Sept. 11 with its adult audience at least, from what I've heard - I'm expecting the reviews to be much less favorable than for Toy Story or Shrek, as a result.
LOTR may turn out to be a good film, but it won't touch Harry Potter at the box office (unless every HTFer who loves it sees it about 15 times

).

 

[Geoffrey_A]

(RobertR)Actually, you are wrong, Rob. Harry Potter doesn't have the epic quality of LOTR, but parts of the HP books are VERY dark and serious in tone...

Actually, you're both right and wrong. Harry potter does have some dark intense stuff, that is true, but it's very limited in the first book. The really intense, dark tones in the HP series don't really pick up until the third book "The Prisoner of Azkaban". So, Rob G is correct in his thinking that the first Harry Potter film doesn't have the same serious, dark tone of LOTR, and RobR is correct about the HP series of books as a whole.
Here's my take on the whole box office issue. I work part-time at a video store. I see all manner of people come in, and the movie that I've heard discussed most often and with most enthusiasm is LOTR. I have yet to hear a single person say anything about Harry Potter, and havce only heard some minor murmurings about Monsters Inc.
Now, Personally I think that M-Inc will do decent business, especially being coupled with the Episode II trailer, but it will quickly fade when the Harry Potter bomb is dropped on the cinemas (and I use the term "bomb" in it's devestating capacity, not in refference to HP's success). HP is going to be really big with a lot of people, and is going to have a very broad audience appeal. Then, a month later, LOTR will hit. Excitemenet about HP is going to create a lot of interest in this one. I'll wager that J6P is going to be hearing terms like "Harry Potter for adults" and such. Kids will want to see the film, being hungry for more fantasy after HP. Adults will want to see a serious film with great actors and exceptional visual effects that also carries the same sense of awe and wonder that HP had. Then, taking into account the weak movies coming out for the next 2 months after LOTR, it's going to walk away with some major bank, just like Titanic did. I won't go as far as to say that it will beat Titanic. Titanic had a very special set of circumstances that lead to it's gross, but it won't surprise me if LOTR is a very domminant movie for a long time.
So, my rankings:
1. LOTR
2. Harry Potter
3. Monsters Inc.
All of them certainly will be fine films, but LOTR has it locked up in my view. But then, maybe I'm a little biased

Although, I have read all the HP books and love them, so maybe not, hmmmmm.
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Geoff
Now with Kung-Fu grip and realistic facial hair!

 

[Seth Paxton]

Andrew, there's one thing as I already mentioned that I think counters this

On HTF, nearly all of us love LOTR and want to see it. But the general public ain't like that

How did The Mummy do such good business then? It was effects. People were ready for TPM release and used The Mummy as the surrogate action/CGI fun flick. I don't think FOTR is going to the bank on fanboys, I think it's going to the bank on the same thing that sold Mummy Returns or Jurassic Park.
I think some of the key sequences used in the ads for FOTR will have the same effect. I totally would agree that from the "books are great" view that FOTR doesn't have the wide appeal of something watered down or new. BUT, it does have big, grand battle and action sequences that are already being run in the trailers and will be pushed even more as it gets closer.
That's why people will go in droves to FOTR. If the films are good, that will get the word of mouth, and considering the story source I think it's reasonable to expect the word of mouth to be good.
Personally I think Monsters is going to be hurt by not being as good a film as Toy Story and Bug's Life, at least on my early read. If, IF, that is true (that Monsters is not as good as TS2 for example) I think it will keep some people away. After all, while TS or Bugs made money on kids, it also brought in adults of all ages without kids. I'm not quite sure Monsters will have that same "you've gotta see this" appeal because from a CGI/coolness factor people already own DVDs of stuff just as good.
Now I plan on seeing all 3, but I really do sense the public already starting to look past Monsters to Harry Potter.

 

[Seth Paxton]

Paul brought up an interesting side point in all this. With Hollywood hurting and several years of "poorer" efforts, doesn't this Xmas have HUGE written all over it.
I'm sure some analysts will be surprised and everyone will try to figure out how H'wood bounced back, when we here will have expected it all along. You put out lots of big name, big production family films (not just kids stuff) around Xmas and you will make a lot of money. And if the stories are actually really good ones, you will make crazy money.
I would agree that this season seems to be primed to make more money than any previous film season and probably many others to come.

 

[Bruce Hedtke]

Judging by the way that the Toy Story films and Shrek have done lately in the theaters, I would expect a good following for Monsters, Inc.. People want to go see these animated films...that much has been proven. Will it be enough to outdo traditional films like Harry Potter and LOTR's? I think it might.
1. Monsters, Inc.
2. Lord of the Rings
3. Harry Potter
Bruce
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Welcome aboard the Satellite of Love

 

[Guy Martin]

A question for you all: who cares? If you really like the movie, does it really matter how much it makes, or if it makes more than other movies? Why are we so obessed with box office grosses?
- Guy

 

[Mike Voigt]

Guy,
your post is the quintessential thread turd. Any reason for your post, besides trying to bring a happy discussion to a screeching halt?
We enjoy discussing this kind of stuff - enough reason, IMO, to have this thread. After all, is anyone hurt by it? Is it perhaps damaging to anyone? I can't see how - except to those who would want to shut down any kind of discussion they deem "worthless"...
If you don't care about the subject matter, MOVE ON. There is no need for that kind of post.
Mike

 

[Dan Paolozza]

Geoffrey_A:
Please let me know which video store you work at in town. I will gladly direct the never-ending chain of people I know and talk to regarding Harry Potter's release to your store. I promise you won't doubt the magnitude of anticipation for this movie. And this is outside the circle of people my wife interacts with (elementary school teacher). In her "world," there is no other movie coming out this fall.
On a local note: did you miss the mass-hysteria over the books' releases? Stores put up facades and re-worked their store-fronts; kids and adults dressed up just to go buy the books; there are promos and contests in the local papers and through the TV stations. Everywhere I look, "entities" want to associate themselves with HP.
The biggest public hoo-hah I've seen about LOTR this year is a couple standard, cardboard cut-outs in Chapter's windows.

 

[Neil Joseph]

Well I bought 4 happy meals today and all had Monster Inc toys in them. So there is your answer.
Monsters Inc.
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[Guy Martin]

Hey everyone!
I just wanted to apologize for the confrontational tone of my last post. While the subject of our obsession with the box offfice gross of our favorite movies has been on my mind lately this was neither the time nor the place to post about it, and certainly not in such mean-spirited terms. Once again, my deepest apologies.
- Guy
[Edited last by Guy Martin on October 28, 2001 at 09:58 PM]

 

[Brad_W]

Did anyone else hear that Disney and Pixar split ways just recently? There will not be a Toy Story 3. I just read that yesterday. I wish I had the article with me.
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[Geoffrey_A]

The biggest public hoo-hah I've seen about LOTR this year is a couple standard, cardboard cut-outs in Chapter's windows.

Guess you've been missing those non stop ads lately on the tv, advertising an upcoming trivia contest, the big LOTR book displays (very reminiscent of the HP "Goblet of Fire" mania) and the newspaper ads. Anyways, there's just as much going on for HP, so what does it matter?
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Geoff
Now with Kung-Fu grip and realistic facial hair!

 

[andrew markworthy]

It's interesting to contrast the publicity in the USA with the UK. Over here, it's total HP overkill. Every newspaper seems to have had features about it, even free magazines. Now we're getting the TV programmes about it. The stores are full of HP toys and there's even HP candy (chocolate frogs and many-flavour jelly beans, if you're interested). So far, there's zilch about either LOTR or MI.

 

[Dominik Droscher]

Well LOTR climbed on place 4 on the German Bestseller list for a short period of time (I think it is 7 now) so that means that there seem to be a lot of people who want to catch up. Bookstores have (as mentioned before) huge displays of Tolkien books - sometimes even bigger than the Harry Potter sections.
That said I think that Harry Potter is more popular at the moment but it is also (incorrectly) seen as a children book by many people. So it is very difficult to estimate the success of the movies. I just hope they are both fantastic movies and get rewarded by the audience for that.
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-Dominik Dröscher ICQ: 25318265
"Quis custodiet ipsos custodes."