**Official HTF HD Formats Ind./Retailer/Studio Support Thread-*SEE POST 3176, p. 106* (1 Viewer)

[Robert Crawford]

Chris,
I don't see Blu-ray having the same market penetration as SD DVD due to several factors not even related to the format itself. I think too many people will find the cost of getting the full benefit of Blu-ray too cost prohibitive for their taste and I'm not talking about players and software. I'm talking about displays and audio systems.

Many of you would be shocked how many people I know that still have their dvd player hooked up by composite or s-video and who still own and use televisions that are more than 10 years old. Even moreso, having their audio just come out their television speakers. After talking with several others about this, I found those type of scenarios very common among other long-time HT enthusiasts in their experiences with the general public.

 

[Sam Posten]

Yeah, except that that woman had a legitimage gripe, and had OFFERED TO SETTLE WITH MCDONALDS FOR 20K:
The Actual Facts about the Mcdonalds' Coffee Case
McDonalds Hot Coffee Lawsuit and Beyond: The Tort Reform Myth Machine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonald's_coffee_case
McFacts abut the McDonalds Coffee Lawsuit
McDonalds Lawsuit | McDonalds Hot Coffee Lawsuit

 

[Jari K]

NHK - Japan Broadcasting Corporation

"The company said it will continue to sell HD-DVD products for a while but will stop further development of HD DVD. Meanwhile, it said its DVD factories in Aomori Prefecture, northern Japan, would be closed."

Pretty dramatic stuff, if this is really true. Close the whole factories? Now I kinda feel bad for the people working there, IF this is indeed true.

Why Toshiba can´t start making Blu-ray-players? I mean after all, this is "business"..

 

[Robert Crawford]

Only if the pricing comes down on both hardware and software. Furthermore, as the only HDM format they need to make sure their marketing strategy hits a homerun to the general public because there is still a large segment out there that haven't even heard of Blu-ray or HD DVD.

 

[Marc Colella]

I was told the same thing for this past Christmas, especially since HDTV sales exploded and the PS3 dropped in price. HDM sales didn't budge that much.

We'll have to wait and see, but I think HDM sales next Christmas won't be much greater than this past one.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Agreed. With the crunch on in a major way to ramp up BD50 production to handle all the studios, you'd think Toshiba could actually make some dough by refitting those plants for BD production and getting on on the ground-floor of disc manufacture. It could cost less to convert an HD DVD factory to BD than to build a BD factory from the ground up (I'd assume).

Toshiba could also make some great combo players. I'd probably buy one.

 

[Robert Crawford]

The state of the economy is going to be the X-factor. If it continues to tank then discretionary spending will be affected which isn't good for the HDM market.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

I agree with Crawford that HDM won't ever reach the penetration DVD for the examples he cites (what I call the "granny" clause... folks who "just watch a movie" on legacy gear). But HDM still has some SERIOUS room to grow given the boom in HDTV sales.


Some nice sales spikes after the Warner announcement in early Jan would suggest we're in for good times with HDM in the coming year.

 

[Jari K]

At least before Xmas, there were more of these BOGO etc sales for Blu-ray than there was to HD DVD (believe me, I ordered zillion titles from Amazon - like I did with recent HD DVD sales in Amazon/Deepdiscount). So the "high price of BD" is not 100% reality IMO.

But if we´re talking about those "full prices" with e.g. Fox-titles, then I can understand your point. But I picked up most of my Fox-titles before Xmas ("Buy 2 - get 1 for free"-sales), so they weren´t very expensive back then..

 

[DaViD Boulet]

During the great depression of the 1930's was one of the times that consumers spent the most on movie entertainment (at the cineama).

It may not necessarily work out that there's a linear relationship between the direction of the economy and how folks choose to spend their (dwindling) discretionary income.

However, I do agree that the economy will have an affect on HDM sales... as with DVD sales... as with any other luxury consumer goods.

 

[Robert Crawford]

I expect Warner and Sony to take the lead on releasing Blu-ray titles with the appropriate pricing to match the output. I just hope that Fox, MGM and Disney follow suit and the sooner the better especially in regard to catalog title pricing. Those type of titles need to be more affordable to the general public without utilizing BOGO sales.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Poor analogy due to television of today and no such thing back then. Also, so many more ways to get entertainment in 2008 without having to buy new televisions, players and audio systems plus software.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

And I'll add that in all cases the studios should release said HDM titles with the bonus material already available on the SD DVD versions!!!

 

[Jari K]

This is what I was thinking. Well, I guess we need to wait for the proper confirmation etc for these news. Hard to say what´s really going on at the moment.

 

[Adam Gregorich]

My guess is things will wrap up/light get turned off in June. That gives enough time to have an orderly exit for Toshiba, the studios and the retailers. I am willing to bet that most titles announced for release over the next month or two will probably get released as planned. No sure about WBs May and June releases.

I think there will be a lot of pressure on the BD CE companies to get HW prices down for a big Q4 retail season which BD will need if it wants to catch DVD.

 

[Paul Hillenbrand]

Digital Bits 2/16/08 Update Edit: Sanjay Gupta reported this first on HTF at 12:55 PM here on "Page 95" of this long thread.

 

[David Wilkins]

I think the trend will continue to build steam. It's not completely tied to the Christmas season. Plenty of people splurge on such goodies during every other month. In fact, the personal splurges tend to taper off as the holidays approach.

The concept of home theater has yet to reach most of the public, even standard def home theater. I think that the intro of HDM will add more pizazz and desirability to the concept...a higher octane approach that will woo people, once they've "seen the neighbor's".

Much depends on the forecast of drastically falling prices for LCD panels. It's been implied that as the manufacturing is more widely established, we'll see price drops similar to what has happened with home computer monitors, and the $2500 to $5000 price tags will become very scarce.

Harder times often have some interesting and surprising side effects. It's almost baffling how money is found for luxuries, in spite of logical choices. As the world becomes messier and more crowded, a lot of people might find the one-time expenditure for something that returns so many hours of convenient, comfortable enjoyment, not so impractical.

I think we're just beginning to see the concept of home theater really come into its own. Imagine the potential, when it's no longer limited to people who hang out in places like these forums. But as Crawdaddy said, it never will equal the deep, deep penetration of SD-DVD. In fact, it doesn't have to.

 

[Dennis Nicholls]

Hmm....even that bastion of the MSM, the New York Times, has an obituary notice up now.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/16/te...16toshiba.html

 

[PaulDA]

This gibes with my experience. My parents got their first SD DVD player at Christmas...2007!!! I will have to hold their hands so they can get the appropriate STB when analogue goes out next year in the US (they live in NH). They have a 32 inch Sony Trinitron (about 7 years old) and it works fine--so they won't be upgrading that to an HD display anytime soon.

In my generation/circle of friends (I'm 40), I know five people with HDTVs. Two are 34" CRT displays, one is a 50" DLP RPTV, one is a 50" plasma and one is a 40" LCD. Four of them have HD cable (the one with the plasma got it three weeks ago). Only one of them plans to get an HDM player (a PS3--and that is at least 50% destined for gaming; Blu-ray playback is a bonus to him). Only two of them have 5.1 audio capability. Everyone else I know is quite happy to watch SD DVDs on SDTVs (a couple have hooked up the player to a stereo).

I will be going "purple" but I will be among the few and, if it were not for me, my wife would be perfectly happy with our 20 year old 19" TV and a cheap DVD player. Thankfully, she indulges my hobbies (audio and video--she even subsidizes them) but she is far more typical of people I know as far as A/V in general. So while I am happy to get into HDM, I am a veteran of hi-res audio and I am fully prepared for HDM to remain a niche (albeit a bigger one than hi-res audio).

 

[David Wilkins]

I'll bet that the last party to publicly acknowledge, will be Toshiba.