*** Official HTF HD Formats Comparison Thread *See Post 957, p. 32* (1 Viewer)

[DaViD Boulet]

Short-term, yes. But Disney and Sony are taking a long-term view. And they know that as soon as this format war is over, and the consumer is presented with a clear and uncontested defacto HD format, they'll sell many more copies on that format (backed by consumer confidence) than they would right now on BD and HD DVD combined.

Hence the exclusive push for BD: long-term profits by pushing the market to a single format.

 

[Norman Matthews]

But if all studios were to go neutral, the consumer would be able to choose between the two formats with the same confidence, knowing that neither was going anywhere and would be supported by everyone.

You say they're thinking long term as if that's the only way to do it. As John said just above you: A single format is in the studios' best interest (and only marginally so -- when we're talking about mass adoption of one or the other, the relative cost of a second authoring drops to next to nothing at those volumes), not the consumer's. That distinction seems to get lost quite a bit in these discussions.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Norman,

even if the movie studios wanted to provide two formats, the REATAILERS would never support that structure long term.

Do you want to see HD disc media fill the store shelves at Best Buy one day like you see DVDs do now?

One format. That's your only choice.

And BTW, two formats made available, even by all studios, hardly eases consumer fears of one of those formats becoming obsolete.

 

[Norman Matthews]

I don't follow you here. We're told over and over, ad nauseam, that it's the uncertainty keeping people away and that studio support is what will decide the war. Now the certainty that all studios have decided to support both formats, thereby giving both unsurpassed studio support, wouldn't resolve the issue?

 

[DaViD Boulet]

No, it wouldn't resolve the issue. It would just prolong it a little more.


You're clearly not a major retailer...

 

[ppltd]

Just by the shear number of BD owners, I would doubt it.

 

[John Berggren]

What benefit do you derive from having HD-DVD vs. BD that you didn't get out of DVD's single format?

 

[Norman Matthews]

Just saying things doesn't make them true. Do you have a reason for that opinion? Why is a market for two fully supported HD-delivery systems untenable? You've given no reasons other than just a plain "because I said so" as of yet.

 

[ppltd]

Probably not. Your question is just rhetorical as we do have two formats. As the number of players continues to grow, the likelihood of a single format becomes less likely. And soon the studios will begin to take notice of their losses. I expect that if BD can not deliver a fatal blow (not very likely) by the holiday season, the exclusives will start falling apart on both sides.

 

[Norman Matthews]

How quickly did Sony improve upon their universally reviled The Fifth Element transfer? And with an exchange program for early purchasers to boot.

What DVD launch title did that happen with again?

 

[DaViD Boulet]

I spent over two years explaining it in a thread that was just recently closed. I should hope we don't have to reiterate every obvious debate and argument/justification all over again. None of these well-covered points are a mystery to anyone.

 

[Vincent_P]

Are you?

Vincent

 

[Jari K]

This won´t happen. Some studios might go "neutral", but not all of them. We can paint a pretty picture where every major studio is neutral and the customer then decides the ultimate outcome of the "format war", but it´s too late for that. Blu-ray camp basically only needs Universal now, HD DVD needs Fox, Disney/Buena Vista, Sony and Lions Gate. Everyone can do the math here. Sure, Fox is sleeping at the moment, but still.

 

[ReggieW]

With less than 2% of the marrket, It's NEVER too late.

I don't care which side has what, until consumers jump onboard in a really big way, then anything is still possible.

 

[Norman Matthews]

Honestly, what points you think you've demonstrated and what has actually come across are clearly two very different things.

Come on, give me the highlights, bullet fashion, one sentence a piece. Why is a market for two fully supported HD delivery systems "obviously" untenable. Not inconvenient (for you), not unideal (for you) -- untenable.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Norman,

how long have you been at HTF? Are you suggesting that you never read the infamouns "The format war is nearly over" thread that was a zillion pages long?

Are you suggesting that the points such as how the average consumer still fears getting burned with a format war like they did with Beta/VHS are concepts you've never heard discussed before?

 

[Mike_G]

I'm already starting to worry about HD-DVD's viability past this holiday season, and I was a big proponent of HD-DVD in the beginning. With Disney, rumors of Fox coming back, and Close Encounters, I'd say that unless HD-DVD pulls a miracle, I don't see anything saving it. Spielberg already nixed his Universal films on HD-DVD so you can probably forget about anything like E.T. or Jurassic Park.

I just don't see anything from the HD-DVD side that says "here's why we can survive".

 

[Norman Matthews]

I'm suggesting that two fully supported formats are not the same thing as a format war. I'm suggesting that two separate formats could each carve out a viable market for themselves. Demonstrating that consumers don't want to get burned in a format war and demonstrating that two formats cannot coexist are two very different things. Your most recent response shows me you're not paying this distinction much mind.

And please, if you're going to keep non-responding responding, just stop responding. Either reply to the point or don't reply at all. But please stop replying only to say if I were more informaed I'd already know the answer.

 

[DaViD Boulet]

Norman,

it seems we're both "non-responding" to each other. We are most certainly hearing each other, but we still disagree with our basic premise.


Sure, two viable formats is "different" than a format war.

That's not what we have with HD DVD and BD. We have a format war.

Consumers typically do not tolerate more than one "format" that provides the same function when it comes to entertainment media. They weren't happy with VHS and Beta, for instance... and both were *viable* home-video technologies.

They aren't happy with SACD and DVD-A... and both are technically-viable high-resolution media, though politically only certain lables support each format.

The computing industry is one of the rare exceptions where two incompatible formats that do "the same thing" have managed to exist. And that's primarily because Apple has managed to do things that MS hasn't... or has managed to do them first and to do them better, so they've developed a loyal following. And even today in order to survive, Apple has done away with their proprietary chipsets and OS and now gone PC-compatible so PC software works seamlessly on Mac platforms. Guess what... now it's not a different "format" at all... just a different *brand*, and "two brands" is not the same as two formats.

In any case, Toshiba backing HD DVD and all the other entertainment-companies backing BD does not create a viable dual-format scenario. And even if there were a viable dual-format scenario from an industry-support side, consumers would NEVER tolerate it. The moment someone would get home with a movie-rental of the wrong disc type that would be the end of that.

I agree that two viable formats are different than a format "war" perse, but I disagree that we have a situation where we have two equally viable formats in place, so the discussion to that end is moot given the reality of the industry and the history of consumer perspective in entertainment media. If I didn't state these things explicitly earlier, again, it's because these points have been covered hundreds of times over on this board already so I assumed it was unnecessary.

 

[Walter Kittel]

We are already seeing this with some consumers attempting to playback HD media on SD players. How many times have you been asked at a local retailer if you have a Bd player? I know that you are not suggesting that both HD formats be abandoned because some consumers are already having problems with incompatible media. So at what scale does it become an issue?

Based on my own opinion regarding the niche status of both HD formats I doubt that consumer outcry (over media issues) is going to have a large impact anytime soon.

- Walter.