*** Official "2003 Box Office Prediction and Discussion" Thread (1 Viewer)

[Patrick Sun]

Gah, my arithmetic skills suck, I have no idea why I thought 174 minutes was 6 minutes less than 3 hours and 20 minutes. Doh! (174 minutes was what was listed as the TTT's DVD running time, but now IMDB shows it as 179 minutes) But still, if the theaters just started the showings an hour earliler, they could squeeze the same number of showings/day as TTT.

 

[nolesrule]

But still, if the theaters just started the showings an hour earliler, they could squeeze the same number of showings/day as TTT.

You mean at 10am? Theaters rarely ever have start times before 11am. Of the theaters within 40 miles of my house, there were 9 theaters out of 28 with the earliest start before 11am today. There were a total of 159 screenings on 56 screens, or an average of 2.8 showings per screen. 3 screens had 4 showings, and at every one, the last show began after 11pm.

I'd hate to work closing at those theaters. You couldn't pay me enough to stick around to clean up trash at 3am.

If it weren't a holiday/vacation weekday, there would have been no starts before noon. While opening day had starts as early as 10:20am, the second day did not have starts before noon.

 

[Kevin Grey]

ROTK's Christmas Eve take was revised upwards. It's now estimated at 8,083,00- higher than TTT 7,790,000 Christmas Eve take.

 

[nolesrule]

That increase for 12/24 was up about a half-million. Fairly significant, about 6.7%.

 

[Patrick Sun]

We have theaters in my neck of the woods who want to make money, thus they do have showings at 10 a.m. during the Christmas break.

 

[Tino]

There are theaters near me that start shows at 10A.M. year round.

Also, all the theaters near me are showing ROTK the same number of showings per day as TTT. A 20 min difference in runtime doesn't make that much of a dent in showings.

 

[Tino]

BOM is reporting a Friday estimate of $20.8 million for ROTK. That's only a 4.6% drop from last Friday.

 

[TerryRL]

Friday Estimates

#1 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $20.8 million ($193.6 million)
#2 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $10.0 million ($18.2 million)
#3 "Cold Mountain" $5.3 million ($9.8 million)
#4 "Paycheck" $4.9 million ($10.0 million)
#5 "Something's Gotta Give" $4.8 million ($46.9 million)
#6 "Peter Pan" $4.3 million ($8.2 million)
#7 "Mona Lisa Smile" $4.0 million ($24.0 million)
#8 "The Last Samurai" $2.9 million ($69.1 million)
#9 "Bad Santa" $1.5 million ($48.0 million)
#10 "Elf" $1.4 million ($162.1 million)

Taking just a 4% dip off of it's pace from a week ago was New Line's blockbuster 'The Return of the King'. The movie has so far tallied just under $194 million and is going to sail past the $200 million mark today (it's 11th day of release), tying "The Matrix Reloaded" as the second fastest film in history to do so. The movie is also on pace to become only the second film ever to boast a second weekend haul of more than $60 million. Last year's "Spider-Man" has the biggest sophomore effort with it's jaw-dropping mark of $71.4 million. ROTK may be on it's way to a final domestic tally north of the $400 million mark. New Line may indeed end up with only the second film in history to earn over $1 billion worldwide. Even if it doesn't get to the billion dollar mark, the movie will still end up earning well over $900 million worldwide before it's all said and done.

Opening very strong in second place is Fox's family comedy "Cheaper by the Dozen". The movie, which stars funnyman Steve Martin, took in more than $8 million on Christmas Day and followed that up with more than $10 million yesterday. Look for a 4-day haul in the area of $40 million.

Miramax's latest Oscar hopeful, "Cold Mountain", got off to a decent start as it took in $4.5 million on Christmas Day and an additional $5.3 million yesterday. A 4-day haul of about $20 million is expected.

Ben Affleck, trying to re-establish his box office muscle following the mega-flop "Gigli", saw his latest action flick "Paycheck" pull in $10 million since Christmas Day. The film from action director John Woo should also end up in the area of $20 million for it's 4-day tally.

Sony's hit romantic comedy "Something's Gotta Give" saw a large 49% increase in business from it's Friday-to-Friday numbers. The movie has earned close to $47 million and should end up with a 4-day holiday mark in the neighborhood of $16 million.

Universal's "Peter Pan" got off to a so-so start on Christmas Day, pulling in $3.9 million. It earned a little over $4 million yesterday, but will likely rebound today and tomorrow to challenge "Something's Gotta Give" for the fifth slot by the end of the weekend.

Sony's "Mona Lisa Smile" took only a 1% decline off of it's pace from last weekend. WB's epic "The Last Samurai" saw a very welcome 39% increase in business. Dimention's raunchy comedy "Bad Santa" saw a 15% increase from it's Friday-to-Friday numbers, while New Line's huge hit "Elf" saw a near 5% increase in business. All in all, this is going to be one very lucrative Christmas holiday weekend for the studios.

 

[nolesrule]

That's impresive. I really didn't think that it would hit $20M on Friday, rather somewhere around $18-19M. So Weekend 2 should finish somewhere in the $60s, so after Sunday it should be in the $235-240M area.

Of course, I've been conservative with my estimates thus far on this film.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

ROTK's total cume is already ahead of TTT by about $26M thru Friday and should see its total take of about $240M by Sunday.

~Edwin

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

ROTK could well top the $300M mark by next Sunday.

~Edwin

 

[Matt Pelham]

Since domestic #s include Canada, and yesterday was Boxing Day (a very popular holiday up north), is it possible that ROTK could fall ever so slightly today and wind up with closer to $55 million for the weekend? Either way, that's phenomenal, and it should end up with either the 2nd or 3rd biggest second weekend ever!

 

[Matt Stone]

Wow, that is very impressive. I thought it would it would suffer roughly the same decline as TTT, but so far it's staying very solid. It will be interesting to see today's numbers. If it hangs on at a ~5% drop (which I don't think will be the case), Saturday's take could top 26 mil.

 

[BrianShort]

Box Office Mojo is predicting $51,220,000 for the weekend. Saturday was actually lower than Friday, with an estimated take of $17,423,000, so it seems Boxing Day in Canada is what gave ROTK the boost for Friday. The total drop from last weekend, if these numbers hold up, is 29.5%.
For comparison, TTT made $48,875,549 in its second weekend, a drop of 21.2% from the opening 3-day take of $62,007,528. Looking at the individual numbers, it doesn't look like TTT had the same kind of boost on the 2nd Friday that RotK did.

I'm actually sort of dissapointed with these numbers... I was expecting a smaller drop on Saturday and Sunday than there was, based on the very low drop off for Friday.

Brian

 

[Matt Stone]

I was expecting a smaller drop on Saturday and Sunday than there was, based on the very low drop off for Friday.

Same here. It's at least still tracking above TTT, which should put it in the ~365 range.

 

[TerryRL]

Weekend Estimates

#1 "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" $51.2 million ($223.6 million)
#2 "Cheaper by the Dozen" $28.2 million ($36.4 million)
#3 "Cold Mountain" $14.5 million ($19.0 million)
#4 "Something's Gotta Give" $14.2 million ($56.4 million)
#5 "Paycheck" $13.9 million ($19.2 million)
#6 "Mona Lisa Smile" $11.5 million ($31.5 million)
#7 "Peter Pan" $11.4 million ($15.0 million)
#8 "The Last Samurai" $8.3 million ($74.3 million)
#9 "Bad Santa" $4.5 million ($50.9 million)
#10 "Elf" $4.2 million ($164.8 million)

New Line's 'Return of the King' continued it's dominant rule at the box office this weekend. The film took a very moderate 29% hit and saw it's total rise to $223 million. ROTK did tie "The Matrix Reloaded" in becoming the second fastest film ever to pass the $200 million mark (11 days). It's $51.2 million sophomore frame ranks as the fifth biggest second weekend mark in history (just ahead of the $48.8 million sophomore effort of 'The Two Towers' last year). ROTK trails the second weekend grosses of "Spider-Man" ($71.4 million), "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" ($57.4 million), 'The Grinch' ($52.1 million) and 'The Phantom Menace' ($51.4 million). ROTK's 4-day Christmas holiday mark of $65.7 million does rank as the best Christmas tally in history At this point, ROTK is well on it's way to earning more than $350 million domestically.

Fox's "Cheaper by the Dozen" enjoyed a very healthy debut as it took in more than $36 million over the 4-day Christmas holiday frame. Expect this one to enjoy a very healthy run in theaters as it looks to become star Steve Martin's second $100 million grosser out of his last 3 movies.

Miramax's Oscar hopeful "Cold Mountain" had a solid debut with more than $19 million over the 4-day holiday. With Miramax expected to push this one hard for Oscar consideration (it already boasts the highest number of Golden Globe nominations with 8), expect this one to have solid legs during the coming weeks.

Sony's romantic comedy "Something's Gotta Give" got a 24% bump in business this weekend. The film, which stars Oscar winners Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton, has so far tallied more than $56 million and could be headed for a final tally north of the $100 million mark depending on it's staying power.

Paramount's action flick, "Paycheck", got off to a decent start this weekend. It took in more than $19 million over the holiday frame, but don't be surprised if this one fades fast from theaters. While 2003 has been a good year for studios overall, Paramount has had a year that they definitely want to forget.

Sony's "Mona Lisa Smile" showed strong legs this weekend as it matched it's $11.5 million opening tally from last week. The movie has so far earned $31.5 million and looks like it's going to end up with a final tally in the area of $70 million, giving star Julia Roberts yet another hit film to add to her stellar resume.

Universal has to be disappointed with the so-so start of their big budget adventure "Peter Pan". The movie, budgeted at more than $125 million (including marketing costs) only took in a little over $15 million over the holiday frame. Universal is really hoping that this one shows strong legs during the coming weeks.

WB's epic "The Last Samurai" enjoyed a healthy 7% increase in business and saw it's tally rise to more than $74 million. Looks like we're going to be adding yet another $100 million grosser to star Tom Cruise's long list of hits.

Dimention's "Bad Santa" continues to show strong legs as it was hit with only an 11% fall this weekend. The dark comedy passed the $50 million mark and seems headed for a final tally of more than $60 million.

New Line's family smash "Elf" rounds out the top 10. The movie took a 23% hit this weekend and has so far earned close to $165 million since it's release. A final tally of about $180 million now seems likely.

With nothing new on tap next weekend, look for ROTK to make it 3 weeks in a row at #1. As 2003 comes to a close, the studios enjoyed a banner year as the overall box office will exceed $9 billion for only the second time in history (2002 was the first time this happened). 2003 so far has 25 releases that have earned more than $100 million, which is a new record (up from the 24 achieved last year). 'The Cat in the Hat', "The Last Samurai" and "Cheaper by the Dozen" are also expected to join the century club. Though admissions were down this year, higher ticket prices resulted in a very big year.

2004 will no doubt be a huge year as well with "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban", "Spider-Man 2", "Ocean's Twelves" and a whole host of other would-be blockbusters on the horizon. 2004 will also see 3 new films from megastar Tom Hanks. The first has him in a comedic role in the Coen brothers' film "The Ladykillers". The second has him once again joining forces with mega-director Steven Spielberg (their third pairing) on the drama "The Terminal" and the last sees him re-teaming with director Robert Zemeckis (also for the third time) on the CG animated holiday opus "The Polar Express".

2004 should be yet another huge year at the box office. Will it top $9 billion? We'll see.

 

[Malcolm R]

Sigh. See above.

Thank heavens for "Bad Santa," "Return of the King," and "Something's Gotta Give" or it would be a cold, cold season at the box office. It seems like this was one of the worst holiday film seasons in years.

 

[mark alan]

something to think about on the worldwide grosses compared to last year's movie. Even if ROTK does exactly the same amount of business in euros, pounds, australian dollars, etc, as the TTT, the revenues (when converted to US dollars) will be 20-25% higher than last years film because of the weak dollar. It seems to me that there is no way that this film will not top 1 billion in worldwide grosses.

Of course if PJ is taking his cut in New Zealand currency, he will take quite a hit compared to what he would have made if the dollar had remained strong.

 

[Vickie_M]

Quote:

I disagree. At least, as somone who lives in Chicago and has many many choices.

 

[Edwin Pereyra]

It seems like this was one of the worst holiday film seasons in years.

I can't say I agree with that statement either. I have not seen a really bad film this holiday season and 21 Grams and In America are on deck for me this week.

~Edwin