*** Official 2003 Academy Award Winner Prediction Thread (1 Viewer)

[Robert Anthony]

bold denotes my WILL WIN pick. Italics denote my SHOULD WIN pick. BOLD AND ITALIC means I'm dreaming out loud I'm taking a total shot in the dark regarding the short documentary, live action short, animated short, and foreign language nominees (I know, I suck as a film geek) this year, so I'll just be avoiding those. I apologize.

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog
Jude Law - Cold Mountain
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
Sean Penn - Mystic River

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou - In America
Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton - In America
Charlize Theron - Monster
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
Holly Hunter - Thirteen
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville

Achievement In Art Direction
Girl With A Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Seabiscuit

Achievement In Cinematography
César Charlone - City Of God
John Seale - Cold Mountain
Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

Achievement In Costume Design
Girl With A Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Seabiscuit

Achievement In Directing
Fernando Meirelles - City Of God
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

Best Documentary Feature
Balseros
Capturing The Friedmans
The Fog Of War
My Architect: A Son’s Journey
The Weather Underground

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum
Chernobyl Heart
Ferry Tales

Achievement In Film Editing
City Of God
Cold Mountain
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Seabiscuit

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)
Evil (Sweden)
The Twilight Samurai (Japan)
Twin Sisters (The Netherlands)
Zelary (Czech Republic)

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Danny Elfman - Big Fish
Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain
Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo
James Horner - House Of Sand And Fog
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Eugene Levy, Christopher Guest & Michael McKean, "A Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind
Elvis Costello & T-Bone Burnett, "Scarlet Tide" - Cold Mountain
Mathieu Chedid, "The Triplets of Belleville" - The Triplets of Belleville
Sting, "You Will Be My Own True Love" - Cold Mountain

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Lost In Translation
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

Best Animated Short Film
Boundin'
Destino
Gone Nutty
Harvie Krumpet
Nibbles

Best Live Action Short Film
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
Most (The Bridge)
Squash
(A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)
Two Soldiers

Achievement In Sound
The Last Samurai
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Seabiscuit

Achievement In Sound Editing
Finding Nemo
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor
Bráulio Mantovani - City Of God
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions
Steve Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo
Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

 

[Dennis Nicholls]

Boy everyone seems to like this "Placeholder" film, and I haven't even heard of it. When was it released? What is its genre?

 

[Robert Anthony]

Just realized--the writing credit for "Into the West" should read "Fran Walsh" not "Phillipa Boyens"

 

[Jason Hughes]

Best Picture:
Will win and should win: Return of the King

Best Director:
Will win and should win: Peter Jackson

Best Actress:
Will win: Charlize Theron.
Should win: Naomi Watts (never mind Nicole's snubb )

Best Actor:
Will win: No clue. Obviously a toss-up between Penn and
Murry. Will have to see what the media pundits say. Who
wants to bet Penn doesn't show up either way? He'll
probably be having dinner with Saddam Hussein that
night!
Should win: Johnny Depp (no chance in hell)

Best Supporting Actress:
Will win and should win: Renee Zelleweger (no-brainer
here)

Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: No clue (prolly a toss-up between Baldwin and
Robbins).
Should win: Ken Wantanabe. He's just plain cool.

 

[Galen_V]

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Sean Penn - Mystic River

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Tim Robbins - Mystic River

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Charlize Theron - Monster

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Finding Nemo

Achievement In Art Direction
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Cinematography
Cesar Charlone - City Of God

Achievement In Costume Design
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Directing
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Documentary Feature
The Fog Of War

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum

Achievement In Film Editing
City Of God

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West"
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Animated Short Film
Boundin'

Best Live Action Short Film
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)

Achievement In Sound
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Sound Editing
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

Time Show Will Run Over
35 Minutes

 

[Nick Sievers]

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog
Jude Law - Cold Mountain
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
Sean Penn - Mystic River

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou - In America
Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton - In America
Charlize Theron – Monster
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
Holly Hunter - Thirteen
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville

Achievement In Art Direction
Girl With A Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Seabiscuit

Achievement In Cinematography
César Charlone - City Of God
John Seale - Cold Mountain
Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

Achievement In Costume Design
Girl With A Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Seabiscuit

Achievement In Directing
Fernando Meirelles - City Of God
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

Best Documentary Feature
Balseros
Capturing The Friedmans
The Fog Of War
My Architect: A Son’s Journey
The Weather Underground

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum – Just for the sake of a guess
Chernobyl Heart
Ferry Tales

Achievement In Film Editing
City Of God
Cold Mountain
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Seabiscuit

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)
Evil
The Twilight Samurai – I haven’t seen any of the nominated foreign films yet
Twin Sisters
Zelary

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Danny Elfman - Big Fish
Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain
Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo
James Horner - House Of Sand And Fog
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Philippa Boyens, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Eugene Levy, Christopher Guest & Michael McKean, "A Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind
Elvis Costello & T-Bone Burnett, "Scarlet Tide" - Cold Mountain
Mathieu Chedid, "The Triplets of Belleville" - The Triplets of Belleville
Sting, "You Will Be My Own True Love" - Cold Mountain

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Lost In Translation
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

Best Animated Short Film
Boundin'
Destino – Just gor the sake of a guess
Gone Nutty
Harvie Krumpet
Nibbles

Best Live Action Short Film
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
Most (The Bridge) – Guessing again
Squash
(A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)
Two Soldiers

Achievement In Sound
The Last Samurai
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Seabiscuit

Achievement In Sound Editing
Finding Nemo
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor
Bráulio Mantovani - City Of God
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions
Steve Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo
Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

 

[Alex Spindler]

Note, I'm still behind on some of my films so this is based on my perception of their reception.

Lead Actor (Going out on a limb)
Will : Bill Murray
Should : Bill Murray

Damn, went to Sean Penn

I could see this win both based on the merits of the film itself as well as a bit of a lifetime achievement. He has be quite critical of awards in general, but I think his showing at the Golden Globes will make people eager to vote for him. And I have to believe that those in the business can relate to the film in general. Given that I don't think LiT will win director or picture, this would be the way to reward the film beyond just the screenplay (as Bill was so integral to it from the very beginning).

Penn is quite the juggernaut, but I also think that he might be vulnerable. Some were not totally taken by his performance in this film. However, he's often been nominated and never made the walk, so I would be the last to be surprised if he takes this one.

Supporting Actor
Will: Tim Robbins
Should: Tim Robbins

Although I like the performances from several of the others, I just think Robbins' key role has all the makings of a win without much controversy.

Lead Actress
Will: Charlize Theron
Should: Charlize Theron

There is always the chance that Keaton can come and snatch it away, but I can't see a comedy beating an actor's showcase like Monster.

Supporting Actress
Will: Renee Zellwegger
Should: Renee Zellwegger

I think this was sewn up long ago for her

Animated Feature
Will: Finding Nemo
Should: Finding Nemo

Original story with critical acclaim, financial success, and some saying it could challenge RotK for Picture if given the opportunity? Locked.

Art Direction
Will: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

If anything, the credit sequence of RotK could play as a montage during the telecast. And the documentaries of the previous films (which I have to wonder if the Academy has seen them in that depth) are an excellent window into the tremendous artistic talents. In addition to that, neither of the previous Rings films have won this, leading to the patented 'reward the last for the whole trilogy' response.


Cinematography
Will: City of God
Should: City of God

Wrong-o, going to the also excellent Master and Commander

Even if RotK was nominated, I think this rightfully should take this. Great visual style shot very well.

Costume Design
Will: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Even the nicely detailed armor in The Last Samurai can't really compare. And since neither of the other Rings films have gotten this, it would reward the trilogy.

Best Direction
Will: Peter Jackson
Should: Peter Jackson

For the strangest reason, I can still see an upset waiting in the wings. However, the Globe win should quell my fears. But perhaps Coppola or even Meirelles could be up on that stage. I would be mad because I think Peter has done incomporable work, but both of the others have turned in superlative efforts as well.

Film Editing
Will: City of God
Should: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

I can just see the epic story of CoG being a huge draw for the editing statue. In some ways, I have to wonder if the ending structure of RotK may draw votes away from it.

Again taken by RotK. Good on them.

Makeup
Will: Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Should: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

As Richard Taylor already has a statuette for this, I can't help but think the facial tattooing, Depp's makeup, and Keira will all sway voters away from the superb work of the Weta team.

Obviously wrong. RotK took it away


Original Score
Will: Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should: Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

I just can't see the other scores really pushing this one out unless they think his win fo FotR is reward enough for the trilogy. But the lighting of the beacons is just awe inspiring due in no small part to the score.

Original Song
Will: Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Philippa Boyens, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should: Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Philippa Boyens, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

I think it's pretty much a lock.


Best Picture
Will: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Earned on its own merits as well as rewarding the trilogy. And I think the backlash against a loss for this would be nigh unbearable.

Sound
Will: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

I was thinking that the balance of people shouting orders on the high sea might have swayed them towards M&C, but then I think to some excellent sound mixing choices in RotK and wonder if that is really beatable.

Sound Editing
Will: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Should: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Can't beat creaking ships at sea and huge cannon shots. And I think the authenticity of M&C will edge PotC from the top.

Visual Effects
Will: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

I can't see any other possible result


Adapted Screenplay
Will: Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

But could there be a win by Helgeland in there? Or even Ross?


Original Screenplay
Will: Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
Should: Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

I don't think the intimate dialogue and excellent tagline ("the less you let things upset you") are beatable.



But, what do I know. It will likely fall right in line with what everyone expects and I'll be totally wrong.

 

[Steve Christou]

I've picked the ones I would love to see win on the day, pure bias, nothing scientific. And who knows... I may be totally wrong.


Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Directing
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Charlize Theron - Monster

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo

Achievement In Art Direction
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Cinematography
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Costume Design
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Film Editing
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Sound
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Sound Editing
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Finding Nemo

 

[Ernest Rister]

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role

This is a horse-race between the sentimental favorite, Bill Murray, and Sean Penn, who hit a career high-water mark this year with Mystic River and 21 Grams. There is a real chance these two could split the vote, and if that happens, look out for Johnny Depp, who gave the most popular performance in years in Pirates of the Caribbean.

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Tim Robbins is the clear favorite. A lock.

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Charlize Theron is the surest thing since Spielberg's win for Schindler's List.

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
The supporting actress award always seems to go to the character actresses. Zellwegger's bold work in Cold Mountain will finally earn her the statue she should have won last year for Chicago.

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
This is the second year in a row Disney has scored double-nominations in this category. Animation buffs are still stinging from the win of piss-fart-and-dick-joke Shrek over the sincere Monsters Inc. I don't see how Finding Nemo could possibly lose, even though The Triplets of Bellville is so damn good. Bellville is the most original animated feature since Twice Upon a Time in the early 80's, while Finding Nemo is a knockout display of narrative skill and craftsmanship. So what will win out? The script, or the screen? My guess - Nemo.

Achievement In Art Direction
The Last Samurai, hands down. I'm not sure how or why Return of the King managed to land a nomination in this category, since the film is a continuation of work previously seen (with the exception of the city streets of Gondor, the haunted mountain, and the Grey Havens)

Achievement In Cinematography
Tough category, but I'm going with John Schwartzman for his period work in Seabiscuit

Achievement In Costume Design
Once again, The Last Samurai

Achievement In Directing
Fernando Meirelles - City Of God
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

The best-directed film I saw last year was Mystic River, followed closely by Master and Commander. Peter Jackson *should* have won for Fellowship of the Ring. I have too many issues with his take on eturn of the King to stand behind him here, but sadly, in the grand Oscar tradition, I fear the wrong person will win simply due to past oversights. Hold your head tall, Clint. You're going to lose, but not because you deserved to, just as Jackson is going to undeservedly win for a disjointed and choppy film. Welcome to Academy politics.

Best Documentary Feature
Capturing The Friedmans is the most well-known, but watch out for The fog of War.

Best Documentary Short Subject
Toss up. Haven't seem them all, so can't comment.

Achievement In Film Editing
My pick would be Master and Commander. If Return of the King wins, I'll know I'm in for a long night.

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions

Achievement In Makeup
Gotta go with Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl. The foam latex Orc masks in Return of the King started wearing out their novelty in The Two Towers.

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Thomas Newman's incredible score for Finding Nemo *should* win, but I fear the LOTR hype machine will make ROTK another winner.

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
"Into the West" is a pop ballad thinner than standard Disney fare. That means it is probably going to win. Here's hoping that A Mighty Wind gets some recognition.

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The best film I saw this year was Mystic River, followed by Finding Nemo, Master and Commander, Lost in Translation, 21 Grams, and Thirteen, in that order. I do not believe someone should win Best Picture based on the strength of previous efforts. It should be about individual achievement. Return of the King is going to win so that the entire trilogy can be honored. That's apalling. As an individual stand-alone film, it has serious issues - the unfulfilling deus ex machina being the least among them. Mystic River is a finely-cut gem of a film, addressing the rot at the heart of the American dream...the unending passage of violence from one generation to the next. It could not be any better. It is 1997 all over again, with the thick-headed crowd-pleaser winning out over the brilliant display of craft and insight into the American experience. Mystic River, prepare to join LA Confidential in the also-ran dustbin.

Best Animated Short Film
Destino -- there's no way this is going to lose. I can't wait to hear Roy Disney's acceptance speech, and I bet Michael Eisner is terrfied of it as well.

Best Live Action Short Film
Haven't seen them all, cannot comment.

Achievement In Sound
Ah, finally a category in which I can endorse Return of the King, although I'm shocked it didn't receive a Sound Editing nod.

Achievement In Sound Editing
Tough call -- I want to root for Nemo, but the Academy leans towards shows with location sound recording, so I think Nemo is out of the running. That leaves the ships-with-cannons movies. Flip a coin, folks. Pirates is showier, but Master & Commander features a wider range. Gonna go with Master & Commander.

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King...again...

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Walsh, Boyens and Jackson have no chance in hell in this category. In fact, this is the least-deserved nomination of this year's awards. It is going to be a fierce dogfight between American Splendor and Mystic River.

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Sofia Coppola will win for Lost In Translation, although if the Academy had balls, Finding Nemo would win, the first animated feature to win a non-song or sound-related Oscar in competition with a live-action film.

And there we go! ROTK religious fanatics can send their hate mail to my home e-mail address. Peace out.

 

[Tino]

Here's a few predictions. More to come.

Best Picture
ROTK

Best Director
Peter Jackson

Best Actor
Sean Penn

Best Actress
Charlize Theron

Best Supporting Actor
Tim Robbins

Best Supporting Actress
Rene Zellwegger

Best Animated Feature
Finding Nemo

Best Original Screeplay
Lost In Translation

Best Adapted Screenplay
ROTK

 

[Alex Spindler]

** edit ** Moved to the correct thread. ** edit **

 

[Seth Paxton]

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
*Sean Penn - Mystic River

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
*Tim Robbins - Mystic River

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
*Charlize Theron - Monster

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
*Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

(Shohreh does look strong too, but Renee was the best thing in her film)

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
*Finding Nemo

Achievement In Art Direction
The Last Samurai

(I was going with The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King until the day of the awards at 3 pm)

Achievement In Cinematography
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

Achievement In Costume Design
*The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Directing
*Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Documentary Feature
*The Fog Of War

Best Documentary Short Subject (no idea yet)
*Chernobyl Heart

Achievement In Film Editing
City Of God

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
*The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)

Achievement In Makeup
*The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
*Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

(starting to lean toward Sand and Fog and Cold Mountain here)

Achievement In Music (Original Song) (tough call here)
Sting, "You Will Be My Own True Love" - Cold Mountain

(swapped out on awards day - Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Philippa Boyens, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King)

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
*The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Animated Short Film (guess)
Destino

Best Live Action Short Film (guess)
*Two Soldiers

Achievement In Sound
Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World

Achievement In Sound Editing
*Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Visual Effects
*The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published (very tough call here)
*Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
*Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

 

[Craig S]

I'm glad to see so much participation here, but please remember that this thread is for your predictions only. If you want to annotate your picks that's cool, but please take any comments or followups over to the discussion thread. It's difficult enough to try to compile all of the picks without having to wade through pages of stuff that should be elsewhere.

Could a mod please clean this thread up (including this post)? Thanks.

 

[Scott_MacD]

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Tim Robbins - Mystic River

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider (a shock, and the best of the ones I've seen)
Charlize Theron - Monster (I haven't seen it, but the buzz is with her.. My pick)

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Holly Hunter - Thirteen (should win)
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain (will win)

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Finding Nemo

Achievement In Art Direction
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Cinematography
César Charlone - City Of God (should win)
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World (will win)

Achievement In Costume Design
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Directing
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Film Editing
City Of God (has a good shot)
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King (deserves to win, and probably will)

Achievement In Makeup
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - another lock. One of the best scores in the past 20 years.

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Philippa Boyens, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King (probably)

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - hands down.

Achievement In Sound
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King (will win)
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World (should win)

Achievement In Sound Editing
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor (should win!)
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King (will win)

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

 

[PaulP]

[Leaving blank some categories]

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Tim Robbins - Mystic River

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Charlize Theron - Monster

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Holly Hunter - Thirteen

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Finding Nemo

Achievement In Art Direction
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Cinematography
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Achievement In Costume Design
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Directing
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Documentary Feature

Best Documentary Short Subject

Achievement In Film Editing
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year

Achievement In Makeup
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Danny Elfman - Big Fish

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Mathieu Chedid, "The Triplets of Belleville" - The Triplets of Belleville

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Best Animated Short Film
Destino

Best Live Action Short Film

Achievement In Sound
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Achievement In Sound Editing
Finding Nemo

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Steve Knight - Dirty Pretty Things

 

[Dick]

I do not believe that the Globes will have any influence on the Oscars, as the Oscar ballets had already been cast before the Globe winners were announced, the result of the Oscar telecast being pushed back a month.

 

[Patrick_S]

Ok I missed being able to post for every category so I'l ljust go with the main ones.

1. Best Picture
Lord of the Rings ROTK
2. Best Director
Jackson
3. Best Actor
Penn
4. Best Actress
Theron
4. Screen Play
Lost in Translation

 

[Craig S]

Brandon Conway said:
Ooops. :b

Thanks, guys. Those errors in the header have been corrected.

 

[Craig S]

Here is the first cut at an HTF consensus on the Oscar winners. This was based on 20 members posted full or partial lists as of 2 PM CST on Sunday, Feb. 1, 2004. Another 11 members have placeholders, but no picks posted yet.

I'll do another consensus in mid-February (after most of the guild winners are in), and a final count the afternoon of the Oscar ceremony (Feb. 29).

The predicted winners are shown in red. Total votes received follow each nominee. Fractional votes are the result of members declaring ties or tossups in a category.

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 3
Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog: 1
Jude Law - Cold Mountain: 0
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation: 6
Sean Penn - Mystic River: 10

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
Alec Baldwin - The Cooler: .5
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams: 1
Djimon Hounsou - In America: 0
Tim Robbins - Mystic River: 16.5
Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai: 2

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider: 0
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give: 0
Samantha Morton - In America: 0
Charlize Theron - Monster: 19
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams: 1

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog: 1
Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April: 0
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River: 1
Holly Hunter - Thirteen: 1
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain: 17

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
Brother Bear: 0
Finding Nemo: 17
The Triplets of Belleville: 1

Achievement In Art Direction
Girl With A Pearl Earring: 2
The Last Samurai: 1
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 13
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 1
Seabiscuit: 0

Achievement In Cinematography
Cesar Charlone - City Of God: 3
John Seale - Cold Mountain: 2
Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring: 0
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 7
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit: 5

Achievement In Costume Design
Girl With A Pearl Earring: 0
The Last Samurai: 5
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 12
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 0
Seabiscuit: 0

Achievement In Directing
Fernando Meirelles - City Of God: 0
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 19
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation: 0
Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 0
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River: 0

Best Documentary Feature
Balseros: 0
Capturing The Friedmans: 7.5
The Fog Of War: 3.5
My Architect: A Son’s Journey: 0
The Weather Underground: 0

Best Documentary Short Subject
Asylum: 4
Chernobyl Heart: 2
Ferry Tales: 0

Achievement In Film Editing
City Of God: 6
Cold Mountain: 0
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 8
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 3
Seabiscuit: 0

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada): 9
Evil (Sweden): 0
The Twilight Samurai (Japan): 1
Twin Sisters (The Netherlands): 0
Zelary (Czech Republic): 0

Achievement In Makeup
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 10
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 1
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 6

Achievement In Music (Original Score)
Danny Elfman - Big Fish: 2
Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain: 0
Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo: 0
James Horner - House Of Sand And Fog: 0
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 15

Achievement In Music (Original Song)
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 11.5
Eugene Levy, Christopher Guest & Michael McKean, "A Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind: 3
T Bone Burnett & Elvis Costello, "Scarlet Tide" - Cold Mountain: 0
Benoit Charest & Sylvain Chomet, "The Triplets of Belleville" - The Triplets of Belleville: 2
Sting, "You Will Be My Ain True Love" - Cold Mountain: 0.5

Best Motion Picture Of The Year
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 19
Lost In Translation: 0
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 0
Mystic River: 0
Seabiscuit: 0

Best Animated Short Film
Boundin': 0
Destino: 6
Gone Nutty: 0
Harvie Krumpet: 1
Nibbles: 1

Best Live Action Short Film
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket): 2
Most (The Bridge): 2
Squash: 1
(A) Torzija ([A] Torsion): 0
Two Soldiers: 1

Achievement In Sound
The Last Samurai: 0
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 14
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 2
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 1
Seabiscuit: 0

Achievement In Sound Editing
Finding Nemo: 3
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 9
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 5

Achievement In Visual Effects
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 16
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 0
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 1

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor: 0.5
Braulio Mantovani - City Of God: 3.3
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 8.3
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River: 5.8
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit: 0

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions: 0
Steven Knight - Dirty Pretty Things: 1
Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo: 1
Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America: 0
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation: 16

Final Counts

The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 11
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 2
Mystic River: 2
Asylum: 1
The Barbarian Invasions: 1
Capturing The Friedmans: 1
Cold Mountain: 1
Destino: 1
Finding Nemo: 1
Lost In Translation: 1
Monster: 1

 

[Vickie_M]

Here's mine. I've listed what/who I think WILL win, what/who I think SHOULD win, my personal preference (not always the same as what/who I think should win), what/who I honestly believe should have been nominated, and what, in an alternate universe, I would like to have seen on the nomination list.

I may re-edit this at some point. I kept the nominees to remind myself, in case I do come back.

===

Best Motion Picture Of The Year

Will Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win (IMHO, of course): The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Mystic River
Should have been nominated: In America
Wish had been nominated: City of God, Big Fish

Nominees:
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Lost In Translation
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Directing

Will Win: Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Fernando Meirelles - City Of God, Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation (just to break the ceiling)
Should have been nominated: Jim Sheridan - In America
Wish had been nominated: Quentin Tarantino - Kill Bill, Vol. 1

Nominees:
Fernando Meirelles - City Of God
Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

===

Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role

Will Win: Sean Penn - Mystic River

Should Win: Sean Penn - Mystic River
Personal Preference: Sean Penn - Mystic River
In any other year: Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
Should have been nominated: Paddy Considine - In America
Wish had been nominated: Hiroyuki Sanada - The Twilight Samurai, Billy Bob Thornton - Bad Santa

Nominees:
Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog
Jude Law - Cold Mountain
Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
Sean Penn - Mystic River

===

Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role

Will Win: Tim Robbins - Mystic River

Should Win: Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
Personal Preference: Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Should have been nominated: Peter Sarsgaard - Shattered Glass
Wish had been nominated: Sean Astin - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Nominees:
Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou - In America
Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai

===

Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role

Will Win: Charlize Theron - Monster

Should Win: Charlize Theron - Monster
Personal Preference: Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider (just to see the look on her face! Otherwise, Theron)
In any other year: Samantha Morton - In America (but she and Naomi will be back)
Should have been nominated: Scarlett Johansson - Girl With A Pearl Earring, Jennifer Connelly - House of Sand and Fog
Wish had been nominated: Cate Blanchett - Veronica Guerin or The Missing

Nominees:
Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton - In America
Charlize Theron - Monster
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

===

Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role

Will Win: Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

Should Win: Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
Personal Preference: Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April
Should have been nominated: Patricia Clarkson - The Station Agent
Wish had been nominated: Jenna Boyd - The Missing, Nora-Jane Noone - The Magdalene Sisters

Nominees:
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
Holly Hunter - Thirteen
Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

===

Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year

Will Win: Finding Nemo

Should Win: (I can assume Nemo, but I haven't seen Brother Bear)
Personal Preference: The Triplets of Belleville
Should have been nominated: Would have been Triplets, if it hadn't been nominated.
Wish had been nominated: Would have been Triplets, if...

Nominees:
Brother Bear
Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville

===

Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published

Will Win: Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor
Should have been nominated: House of Sand and Fog
Wish had been nominated: Big Fish, The Twilight Samurai

Nominees:
Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor
Braulio Mantovani - City Of God
Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Brian Helgeland - Mystic River
Gary Ross - Seabiscuit

===

Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen

Will Win: Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

Should Win: Steve Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
Personal Preference: Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
Should have been nominated: Catherine Hardwicke & Nikki Reed - Thirteen
Wish had been nominated: Peter Mullan - The Magdalene Sisters, Quentin Tarantino - Kill Bill, Vol. 1

Nominees:
Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions
Steven Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo
Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

===

Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year

Will Win: The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)

Should Win: (I've only seen The Barbarian Invasions and The Twilight Samurai)
Personal Preference: The Twilight Samurai (Japan)
Should have been nominated: Uzak (Distant) (Turkey)
Wish had been nominated: Would have said The Twilight Samurai, but lo and behold...!

Nominees:
The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)
Evil (Sweden)
The Twilight Samurai (Japan)
Twin Sisters (The Netherlands)
Zelary (Czech Republic)

===

Achievement In Art Direction

Will Win: Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Girl With A Pearl Earring, The Last Samurai
Should have been nominated: Daniel Bradford - Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Wish had been nominated: Mitsuo Degawa - The Twilight Samurai, Martin Whist - Down With Love

Nominees:
Ben van Os - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Lilly Kilvert - The Last Samurai
Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
William Sandell - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Jeannine Oppewall - Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Cinematography

Will Win: Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Should Win: César Charlone - City Of God
Personal Preference: Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Should have been nominated: Andrew Lesnie - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King, Robert Richardson - Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Wish had been nominated: Mutsuo Naganuma - The Twilight Samurai, M. David Mullen - Northfork

Nominees:
Cesar Charlone - City Of God
John Seale - Cold Mountain
Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Costume Design

Will Win: Ngila Dickson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Ngila Dickson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Ngila Dickson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Ngila Dickson - The Last Samurai
Should have been nominated: Kumiko Ogawa and Cat Thomas - Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Wish had been nominated: Kazuko Kurosawa - The Twilight Samurai, Daniel Orlandi - Down With Love

Nominees:
Dien van Straalen - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Ngila Dickson - The Last Samurai
Ngila Dickson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Wendy Stites - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Judianna Makovksy - Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Film Editing

Will Win: Jamie Selkirk - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Jamie Selkirk - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Jamie Selkirk - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Daniel Rezende - City Of God
Should have been nominated: Stephen Mirrione - 21 Grams
Wish had been nominated: Sally Menke - Kill Bill, Vol. 1, Peter Christelis - In This World

Nominees:
Daniel Rezende - City Of God
Walter Murch - Cold Mountain
Jamie Selkirk - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Lee Smith - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
William Goldenberg - Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Makeup

Will Win: Peter King and Richard Taylor - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should have been nominated: Toni G - Monster
Wish had been nominated: Jenny Shircore - Girl With A Pearl Earring

Nominees:
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

===

Achievement In Music (Original Score)

Will Win: Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: Danny Elfman - Big Fish (just to see Big Fish get *something*)
Should have been nominated: Alexandre Desplat - Girl With A Pearl Earring
Wish had been nominated: Kill Bill, Vol. 1 (I know, I know, but it's my favorite soundtrack of the year)

Nominees:
Danny Elfman - Big Fish
Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain
Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo
James Horner - House Of Sand And Fog
Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

===

Achievement In Music (Original Song)

Will Win: "Into The West"

Should Win: Undecided because they're not all fresh in my mind.
Personal Preference: "The Triplets of Belleville" (I could listen to this song for hours)
Should have been nominated: Kate Bush, "This Woman's Work" - She's Having A Baby (oh wait, that was 1988. Am I still bitter? Hell yes, I'm still bitter!)
Wish had been nominated: Kate Bush, "Be Kind To My Mistakes" - Castaway (oh wait, that was 1987. The film was too obscure)

Nominees:
Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Eugene Levy, Christopher Guest & Michael McKean, "A Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind
Elvis Costello & T-Bone Burnett, "Scarlet Tide" - Cold Mountain
Mathieu Chedid, "The Triplets of Belleville" - The Triplets of Belleville
Sting, "You Will Be My Own True Love" - Cold Mountain

===

Achievement In Sound

Will Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
In any other year: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Should have been nominated: Either of the Matrix movies
Wish had been nominated: Unsure

Nominees:
The Last Samurai
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
Seabiscuit

===

Achievement In Sound Editing

Will Win: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

Should Win: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Personal Preference: Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Should have been nominated: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Wish had been nominated: Either of the Matrix movies

Nominees:
Finding Nemo
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

===

Achievement In Visual Effects

Will Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

Should Win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Personal Preference: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Should have been nominated: either of the Matrix movies
Wish had been nominated: Peter Pan

Nominees:
The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

===

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: Capturing The Friedmans

Should Win: (I'm not qualified to pick, I haven't seen any of them)
Personal Preference:
Should have been nominated: ?
Wish had been nominated: Joy Of Madness

Nominees:
Balseros
Capturing The Friedmans
The Fog Of War
My Architect: A Son’s Journey
The Weather Underground

===

Best Documentary Short Subject

Will Win: Chernobyl Heart (a guess based on description)

Should Win: (I'm not qualified to pick, I haven't seen any of them)
Personal Preference:
Should have been nominated: ?
Wish had been nominated: ?

Nominees:
Asylum
Chernobyl Heart
Ferry Tales

===

Best Animated Short Film

Will Win: Destino (guessed partly because people want to hear what Roy Disney will say)

Should Win: (I'm not qualified to pick, I haven't seen any of them)
Personal Preference: Boundin' (hey, it's Pixar)
Should have been nominated: ?
Wish had been nominated: ?

Nominees:
Boundin'
Destino
Gone Nutty
Harvie Krumpet
Nibbles

===

Best Live Action Short Film

Will Win: Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket) (a guess based on description)

Should Win: (I'm not qualified to pick, I haven't seen any of them)
Personal Preference:
Should have been nominated:
Wish had been nominated:

Nominees:
Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
Most (The Bridge)
Squash
(A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)
Two Soldiers

===

http://atomfilms.shockwave.com/af/sp...cus_oscar.html has descriptions of the shorts.