*** Official 2003 Academy Award Winner Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Movies' started by Craig S, Jan 27, 2004.

  1. Craig S

    Craig S Producer
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    OK, the nominations are out! Please use this thread to post your predictions for the Oscar winners.

    Some requests for participants in this thread:
    • To keep things clean, let's use this thread for predictions only. We have a lively discussion going in the Official Discussion thread, so join us there to talk about all things Oscar.
    • If possible, please post your categories in the alphabetical order shown in this header (which is the same order they are posted on the official Oscar site, AND in my spreadsheet). It just makes it a little easier to count the picks without having to jump around your post.
    • Please be very clear about identifying which film you are picking to win each category. Some of the posts have a bit of narrative, but I can't really find a prediction in there.
    • A lot of us who don't live in LA or NY will never get a chance to see many of the nominees in the Shorts, Documentary & Foreign Language categories. Don't let that stop you from making a prediction - remember, you're not picking your personal preference, just what you think the Academy will pick. It can be fun to read the descriptions on the official Oscar site and try to choose a winner based on the Academy's history, makeup, etc.
    • That said - do try to see as many of the nominated films as possible!!
    I have posted the first HTF Consensus here:

    February 1, 2004: http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htfo...79#post2015079

    And the final consensus, as of 6 PM CST on February 29, is here:

    http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htfo...09#post2072743

    For easy reference, here is the list of nominees:

    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
    Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
    Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog
    Jude Law - Cold Mountain
    Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
    Sean Penn - Mystic River

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
    Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
    Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
    Djimon Hounsou - In America
    Tim Robbins - Mystic River
    Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
    Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider
    Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
    Samantha Morton - In America
    Charlize Theron - Monster
    Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
    Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
    Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April
    Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
    Holly Hunter - Thirteen
    Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

    Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
    Brother Bear
    Finding Nemo
    The Triplets of Belleville

    Achievement In Art Direction
    Girl With A Pearl Earring
    The Last Samurai
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Seabiscuit

    Achievement In Cinematography
    Cesar Charlone - City Of God
    John Seale - Cold Mountain
    Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring
    Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

    Achievement In Costume Design
    Girl With A Pearl Earring
    The Last Samurai
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Seabiscuit

    Achievement In Directing
    Fernando Meirelles - City Of God
    Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
    Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

    Best Documentary Feature
    Balseros
    Capturing The Friedmans
    The Fog Of War
    My Architect: A Son’s Journey
    The Weather Underground

    Best Documentary Short Subject
    Asylum
    Chernobyl Heart
    Ferry Tales

    Achievement In Film Editing
    City Of God
    Cold Mountain
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Seabiscuit

    Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
    The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)
    Evil (Sweden)
    The Twilight Samurai (Japan)
    Twin Sisters (The Netherlands)
    Zelary (Czech Republic)

    Achievement In Makeup
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Achievement In Music (Original Score)
    Danny Elfman - Big Fish
    Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain
    Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo
    James Horner - House Of Sand And Fog
    Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Music (Original Song)
    Benoit Charest & Sylvain Chomet, "Belleville Rendez-Vous" - The Triplets of Belleville
    Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Michael McKean & Annette O'Toole, "A Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind
    T Bone Burnett & Elvis Costello, "Scarlet Tide" - Cold Mountain
    Sting, "You Will Be My Ain True Love" - Cold Mountain

    Best Motion Picture Of The Year
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Lost In Translation
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Mystic River
    Seabiscuit

    Best Animated Short Film
    Boundin'
    Destino
    Gone Nutty
    Harvie Krumpet
    Nibbles

    Best Live Action Short Film
    Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
    Most (The Bridge)
    Squash
    (A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)
    Two Soldiers

    Achievement In Sound
    The Last Samurai
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
    Seabiscuit

    Achievement In Sound Editing
    Finding Nemo
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Achievement In Visual Effects
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
    Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor
    Braulio Mantovani - City Of God
    Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Brian Helgeland - Mystic River
    Gary Ross - Seabiscuit

    Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
    Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions
    Steven Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
    Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo
    Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
    Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

    Final Counts

    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King: 11
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World: 10
    Cold Mountain: 7
    Seabiscuit: 7
    Mystic River: 6
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl: 5
    City Of God: 4
    The Last Samurai: 4
    Lost In Translation: 4
    Finding Nemo: 4
    Girl With A Pearl Earring: 3
    House Of Sand And Fog: 3
    In America: 3
    21 Grams: 2
    A Mighty Wind: 2
    American Splendor: 1
    Big Fish: 1
    Monster: 1
    Thirteen: 1
    Whale Rider: 1

    Here are some useful links for Oscar watchers:So let's get those predictions posted! As the Oscar climate will be changing often please feel free to edit your picks up until the afternoon of the ceremony (Feb. 29). Most importantly - have fun!
     
  2. Craig S

    Craig S Producer
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    Craig's Picks

    Here we go with my picks. Some notes:
    • My predicted winners are shown in red.
    • My preferred winners are shown in italics.
    • I attend an Oscar party every year. In categories with 5 nominees, we are required to choose 2 that won't win (we get 2 points for winners, 1 point for each non-winner we get correct). These are shown in strikethrough text.
    • For the pool there we are required to predict every category, even the shorts & documentaries. These predictions are included here, and are based solely on the synopses provided on the official Oscar web site.
    • Discounting the Documentary, Foreign Language & Short categories, I have seen all the major nominees except Brother Bear.
    • I have included a brief comment after each category, hopefully to explain my odder choices. [​IMG]
    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
    Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
    Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog
    Jude Law - Cold Mountain
    Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
    Sean Penn - Mystic River

    This is now my upset special for this year. It feels like Murray is on the upswing and Penn is fading. Either could win, but like an increasing number of people I think they'll split votes and Depp will end up the surprise winner.

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
    Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
    Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
    Djimon Hounsou - In America
    Tim Robbins - Mystic River
    Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai

    Not much to say here - Robbins probably has this one locked up.

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
    Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider
    Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
    Samantha Morton - In America
    Charlize Theron - Monster
    Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

    Castle-Hughes' nomination was a wonderful surprise and injects some interest into this category. But it won't change the end result - Theron will take this with ease.

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
    Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
    Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April
    Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
    Holly Hunter - Thirteen
    Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

    Zellweger injected some much-needed life into Cold Mountain, and is seen as being overdue. She's the front-runner, but this category often surprises and either Aghdashloo or Clarkson could end up the winner.

    Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
    Brother Bear
    Finding Nemo
    The Triplets of Belleville

    This was Pixar's the minute Finding Nemo premiered last summer. This will be a much-deserved win for a wonderful film, and a studio that has become something of a national treasure.

    Achievement In Art Direction
    Girl With A Pearl Earring
    The Last Samurai
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Seabiscuit

    Some people won't like this, but there will likely be several awards to RotK that are really awards for the whole trilogy. This will be one. Third time will be the charm for Grant Major, Dan Hennah, Alan Lee, and the talented team that brought Middle Earth to glorious life.

    Achievement In Cinematography
    Cesar Charlone - City Of God
    John Seale - Cold Mountain
    Eduardo Serra - Girl With A Pearl Earring
    Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    John Schwartzman - Seabiscuit

    This is Seabiscuit's best chance at winning, and I think the Academy will reward John Schwartzman's beautiful work here.

    Achievement In Costume Design
    Girl With A Pearl Earring
    The Last Samurai
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Seabiscuit

    Ngila Dickson is nominated twice here, and hopefully vote-splitting won't cost her the Oscar she so richly deserves. However, I believe that the Academy will get behind RotK and give her the "trilogy" award here.

    Achievement In Directing
    Fernando Meirelles - City Of God
    Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
    Peter Weir - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Clint Eastwood - Mystic River

    Who are we kidding? This is about as locked as it gets.

    Best Documentary Feature
    Balseros
    Capturing The Friedmans
    The Fog Of War
    My Architect: A Son’s Journey
    The Weather Underground

    This race is between Friedmans & Fog. The Academy made up to Michael Moore last year for previous oversights, and I believe they'll do the same for Errol Morris this year.

    Best Documentary Short Subject
    Asylum
    Chernobyl Heart
    Ferry Tales

    Just going by the description, Asylum sounds like the likely winner.

    Achievement In Film Editing
    City Of God
    Cold Mountain
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Seabiscuit

    RotK is certainly in the running here, and, like Chicago last year, could benefit from a sweep. But I think the Academy will take this chance to give an award to City Of God.

    Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
    The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)
    Evil (Sweden)
    The Twilight Samurai (Japan)
    Twin Sisters (The Netherlands)
    Zelary (Czech Republic)

    Barbarian seems the obvious front-runner right now.

    Achievement In Makeup
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Having given this to FotR two year ago, I think the Academy may look elsewhere this time. PotC seems the obvious choice.

    Achievement In Music (Original Score)
    Danny Elfman - Big Fish
    Gabriel Yared - Cold Mountain
    Thomas Newman - Finding Nemo
    James Horner - House Of Sand And Fog
    Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    With the GG win and Randy Newman's surprising absence, RotK is clearly the front-runner. I think the only real competition is Thomas Newman, but it won't be enough - Howard Shore will pick up his 2nd Oscar.

    Achievement In Music (Original Song)
    Benoit Charest & Sylvain Chomet, "Belleville Rendez-Vous" - The Triplets of Belleville
    Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Michael McKean & Annette O'Toole, "A Kiss At The End Of The Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind
    T Bone Burnett & Elvis Costello, "Scarlet Tide" - Cold Mountain
    Sting, "You Will Be My Ain True Love" - Cold Mountain

    Right now you have to go with "Into The West", but this category often surprises. "Kiss" or "Triplets" could take it.

    Best Motion Picture Of The Year
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Lost In Translation
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Mystic River
    Seabiscuit

    No surprises here. The "fantasy curse" is soon to end.

    Best Animated Short Film
    Boundin'
    Destino
    Gone Nutty
    Harvie Krumpet
    Nibbles

    Salvador Dali & Walt Disney will prove an unbeatable combination. Roy Disney's speech should be fun... for everyone except Michael Eisner. [​IMG]

    Best Live Action Short Film
    Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
    Most (The Bridge)
    Squash
    (A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)
    Two Soldiers

    Again, just going by the descriptions here.

    Achievement In Sound
    The Last Samurai
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
    Seabiscuit

    M&C should be the front-runner here, but this category often goes to the BP winner. I think the Academy will reward M&C with Sound Editing, and give this one to RotK.

    Achievement In Sound Editing
    Finding Nemo
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Should be an easy win for M&C.

    Achievement In Visual Effects
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    The only strike against RotK here is the two previous wins. However, I think the sheer scope of the accomplishment will win over the Academy again. Jim Rygiel & team will turn the hat trick.

    Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
    Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini - American Splendor
    Braulio Mantovani - City Of God
    Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Brian Helgeland - Mystic River
    Gary Ross - Seabiscuit

    Brian Helgeland has long been the one to beat here, but I think CoG's surprise entry shakes things up a bit. It could siphon off votes from MR and throw the prize to RotK or American Splendor. At the last minute, I'm going with RotK.

    Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
    Denys Arcand - The Barbarian Invasions
    Steven Knight - Dirty Pretty Things
    Andrew Stanton & Bob Peterson - Finding Nemo
    Jim, Kirsten & Naomi Sheridan - In America
    Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation

    This race is between LiT and IA. The GG win means the advantage is with Coppola right now.

    Final Counts

    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King - 9
    Mystic River - 2

    One win each for the following films:

    Asylum, The Barbarian Invasions, City Of God, Cold Mountain, Destino, Finding Nemo, The Fog Of War, Lost In Translation, Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World, Monster, Most (The Bridge), Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl, Seabiscuit
     
  3. Edwin Pereyra

    Edwin Pereyra Producer

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    Best Picture: The Return Of The King
    Best Director: Peter Jackson
    Best Actor: Johnny Depp
    Best Actress: Charlize Theron
    Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins
    Best Supporting Actress: Rene Zellwegger
    Best Original Screenplay: Lost In Translation
    Best Adapted Screenplay: City of God
    Best Editing: ROTK
    Best Visual Effects: ROTK
    Best Original Score: ROTK
    Best Original Song: The Triplets of Belleville
    Best Art Direction: ROTK
    Best Sound: ROTK
    Best Sound FX Editing: Master And Commander
    Best Cinematography: Seabiscuit
    Best Animated Feature: Finding Nemo
    Best Makeup: ROTK
    Best Costume Design: The Last Samurai
    Best Foreign Language Film: The Barbarian Invasions
    Best Live Action Short: Two Soldiers
    Best Animated Short: Destino
    Best Documentary Short: Chernobyl Heart
    Best Documentary Feature: My Architect

    ~Edwin
     
  4. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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  5. Dana Fillhart

    Dana Fillhart Supporting Actor

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    Ok, so I've finally gotten around to putting my predictions in. Here they are (in order of the categories on the (2003) Nominee List at Oscar.com):


    Actor in a Leading Role
    Will win: Sean Penn, Mystic River

    Should Win (Personal preference): Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Sean Penn, 21 Grams in place of Sean Penn, Mystic River.

    Actor In a Supporting Role
    Will win: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
    Should Win (Personal preference): I've only seen 3 of the 5; I can't make a fair assessment.
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Unknown

    Actress In a Leading Role
    Will win: Charlize Theron, Monster
    Should Win (Personal preference): Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Scarlettt Johansson, Lost in Translation in place of Diane Keaton

    Actress In a Supporting Role
    Will win: Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
    Should Win (Personal preference): Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Patricia Clarkson for The Station Agent in place of Marcia Gay Harden for Mystic River (I'd forgotten how much her character portrayal *really* irritated me -- definitely replaceable).

    Animated Feature Film
    Will win: Finding Nemo
    Should Win (Personal preference): Finding Nemo
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Sennen Joyu (Millennium Actress) in place of Brother Bear
    Comment: I think Brother Bear was somewhat of a joke, given the quality of the 2 nominated anime titles. I'm guessing the Academy either didn't see the anime titles or didn't want to have any one category predominated by non-Hollywood titles.

    Art Direction
    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Win (Personal preference): The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace.

    Cinematography
    Will win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
    Should Win (Personal preference): Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in place of Cold Mountain

    Costume Design
    Will win: The Last Samurai
    Should Win (Personal preference): The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace.

    Directing
    Will win: Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Win (Personal preference): Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace.

    Documentary Feature
    Will win: Capturing the Friedmans
    Should Win (Personal preference): Capturing the Friedmans
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace.

    Documentary Short Subject
    Will win: Asylum
    Should Win (Personal preference): I have not seen any of the films, so I will abdicate.
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Unknown

    Film Editing
    Will win: Cidade de Deus (City of God)
    Should Win (Personal preference): City of God
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): 21 Grams in place of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (which I thought was -- yet again -- its weakest component)

    Foreign Language Film
    Will win: Les invasions barbares (The Barbarian Invasions)
    Should Win (Personal preference): I have not seen any of the films, so I will abdicate.
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Unknown

    Makeup
    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Win (Personal preference): The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Girl with a Pearl Earring in place of Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

    Music (Score)
    Will win: Howard Shore, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Win (Personal preference): Howard Shore, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace.

    Music (Song)
    Will win: Annie Lennox, "Into the West", The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Win (Personal preference): Annie Lennox, "Into the West", The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (though I must admit, "Belleville Rendez-vous" is a really, really close second.
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): While I can't come up with another, I find nominating two songs from Cold Mountain to be a problem. Also, I think "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" is weaker than the title song of the film A Mighty Wind.

    Best Picture
    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Win (Personal preference): The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Either Cold Mountain, Big Fish or In America over Seabiscuit (a film I consider too weak for BP material)

    Short (Animated)
    Will win: Destino
    Should Win (Personal preference): I have not seen any of the films, so I will abdicate.
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Unknown

    Short (Live Action)
    Will win: Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)
    Should Win (Personal preference): I have not seen any of the films, so I will abdicate.
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Unknown

    Sound Editing
    Will win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
    Should Win (Personal preference): Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace (but I would've liked to see The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in place of Finding Nemo).

    Sound Mixing
    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Win (Personal preference): Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace (though I think Kill Bill: Vol. 1 could've made it in place of Seabiscuit).

    Visual Effects
    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Win (Personal preference): The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace (all three are very strong), but the fact that neither of the Matrix sequels were even considered, I think, is a shame.

    Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
    Will win: Mystic River
    Should Win (Personal preference): Mystic River (Yes; I think the screenplay for ROTK is probably the weakest of the 5 -- still very strong, though, but not as strong as Mystic River).
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): Big Fish in place of American Splendor (actually, anything nominated in the major categories that was adapted from existing material could've been better suited than American Splendor, even Cold Mountain -- I think it's a very weak film for Oscar consideration).

    Writing (Original Screenplay)
    Will win: Lost in Translation
    Should Win (Personal preference): Lost in Translation
    Should Have Been Nominated (if one or more were too weak): There are none too weak to replace (though I could see Kill Bill: Vol. 1 over Dirty Pretty Things).
     
  6. ZacharyTait

    ZacharyTait Cinematographer

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    I'm stealing Kristian's method of predictions. [​IMG]

    Best Actor - Leading Role

    Will win: Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl

    If I picked the winner: Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl


    Best Actor - Supporting Role

    Will win: Tim Robbins - Mystic River

    If I picked the winner: Dijimon Hounsou- In America


    Best Actress - Leading Role

    Will win: Charlize Theron - Monster

    If I picked the winner: Charlize Theron - Monster


    Best Actress - Supporting Role

    Will win: Shohreh Agdashloo - House of Sand and Fog

    If I picked the winner: Holly Hunter - Thirteen


    Best Animated Feature Film

    Will win: Finding Nemo

    If I picked the winner: Finding Nemo


    Best Art Direction

    Will win: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    If I picked the winner: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King


    Best Cinematography

    Will win: City of God

    If I picked the winner: City of God


    Best Costume Design

    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Director

    Will win: Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

    If I picked the winner: Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Documentary - Feature Film

    Will win: The Fog of War
    Should win: The Fog of War

    Best Documentary - Short Subject

    Will win: Chernobyl Heart


    Best Film Editing

    Will win: City of God
    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Foreign Language Film

    Will win: The Barbarian Invasions

    If I picked the winner: The Barbarian Invasions

    Best Makeup

    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Music - Original Score

    Will win: Howard Shore - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

    If I picked the winner: Howard Shore - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Music - Original Song

    Will win: "Into the West" - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

    If I picked the winner: "Into the West" - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Picture

    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Screenplay - Adapted

    Will win: Mystic River

    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Screenplay - Original

    Will win: Lost in Translation

    If I picked the winner: In America


    Best Short Film - Animated

    Will win: Destino


    Best Short Film - Live Action

    Will win: Two Soldiers


    Best Sound Editing

    Will win: Master and Commander: Far Side of the World

    If I picked the winner: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl


    Best Sound Mixing

    Will win: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Visual Effects

    Will win: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
     
  7. Holadem

    Holadem Lead Actor

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    Ph
     
  8. Ray Chuang

    Ray Chuang Screenwriter

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    Here are my predictions (note that some categories may not get comments from me).

    Best Actor--a close race between Sean Penn and Bill Murray. If AMPAS voters can live down Penn's bad boy past image the Oscar is his to win. My choice is Bill Murray, because he has done some great work in the past that has been woefully overlooked.

    Best Supporting Actor--a close race between Tim Robbins and Alec Baldwin for this Oscar. I think they'll give it to Robbins, though.

    Best Actress--Charlize Theron is in the lead to win this Oscar, though some AMPAS voter may have sympathies for Diane Keaton. I think Theron will win, if only because she got the Golden Globe win.

    Best Supporting Actress--Renée Zellwegger has this Oscar pretty much sewen up. [​IMG]

    Animated Feature--Finding Nemo is a lock for this Oscar.

    Art Direction--I wouldn't be surprised if Master and Commander wins (they did a masterful job re-creating the feel of a fighting sailing ship of the early 1800's), but I would like to see RoTK take this Oscar.

    Cinematography--I think Master and Commander take this Oscar, though I really did like Seabiscuit's excellent camera work.

    Costume Design--it will be a close race between Master and Commander and RoTK for this Oscar. I do hope that RoTK takes this Oscar because of all the hard work involved in doing the costumes for the three Lord of the Rings movies.

    Best Director--I think Peter Jackson will win, though some AMPAS voters do like Sofia Coppola's work in Lost in Translation.

    Film Editing--I think it Master and Commander will win, though there maybe some votes for Seabiscuit.

    Makeup--I'd like to see RoTK win, though Pirates of the Caribbean had some excellent makeup work.

    Original Score--I think Howard Shore will win this Oscar.

    Original Song--"Into the West" is my choice, especially since the song just won a Golden Globe award.

    Best Picture--RoTK is definitely my choice, though we may see AMPAS voters going for Mystic River and Lost in Translation.

    Sound--I think Master and Commander will win this award--they captured the sounds of sea battle brilliantly. [​IMG]

    Sound Editing--I think Master and Commander also wins here. Personally, M & C's best thing was its extremely effective use of sound.

    Visual Effects--RoTK is my choice to win this Oscar.

    Adapted Screenplay--I think it will be a very close race between RoTK and Mystic River for this Oscar, with Mystic River winning in the end (I liked the way they translated the original book in film in Mystic River).

    Original Screenplay--I think it's a lock for Lost in Translation to win this Oscar. [​IMG]
     
  9. Jake Gove

    Jake Gove Second Unit

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    place
     
  10. Travis_S

    Travis_S Supporting Actor

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    Location:
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    Real Name:
    Travis
    Added Final Predictions - Feb. 28th

    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
    Bill Murray - Lost in Translation

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
    Tim Robbins - Mystic River

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
    Charlize Theron - Monster

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
    Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

    Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
    Finding Nemo

    Achievement In Art Direction
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Cinematography
    Cesar Charlone - City Of God

    Achievement In Costume Design
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Directing
    Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Documentary Feature
    Fog of War

    Best Documentary Short Subject
    Asylum

    Achievement In Film Editing
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
    The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)

    Achievement In Makeup
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Achievement In Music (Original Score)
    Howard Shore - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

    Achievement In Music (Original Song)
    Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Fran Walsh, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Motion Picture Of The Year
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Animated Short Film
    Destino

    Best Live Action Short Film
    Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)

    Achievement In Sound
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Sound Editing
    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

    Achievement In Visual Effects
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
    Gary Ross - Seabiscuit

    Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
    Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
     
  11. Brandon Conway

    Brandon Conway captveg

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    Location:
    North Hollywood, CA
    Real Name:
    Brandon Conway
    Mystic River got 6, not 5, nominations:

    Actor in a Leading Role - Sean Penn
    Actor in a Supporting Role - Tim Robbins
    Actress in a Supporting Role - Marcia Gay Harden
    Directing
    Best Picture
    Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

    [​IMG]

    My picks:

    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role

    Sean Penn - Mystic River

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role

    Ken Watanabe - The Last Samurai

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role

    Charlize Theron - Monster

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role

    Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

    Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year

    Finding Nemo

    Achievement In Art Direction

    Girl With A Pearl Earring

    Achievement In Cinematography


    Russell Boyd and Sandi Sissel - Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

    Achievement In Costume Design

    The Last Samurai

    Achievement In Directing

    Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Documentary Feature

    Capturing The Friedmans

    Best Documentary Short Subject

    Chernobyl Heart

    Achievement In Film Editing

    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

    Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year

    The Barbarian Invasions

    Achievement In Makeup

    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Achievement In Music (Original Score)

    Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Music (Original Song)

    Eugene Levy, Christopher Guest & Michael McKean, ""A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind

    Best Motion Picture Of The Year

    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Animated Short Film

    Destino

    Best Live Action Short Film

    Most (The Bridge)

    Achievement In Sound

    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Sound Editing

    Master & Commander: The Far Side Of The World

    Achievement In Visual Effects

    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published

    Braulio Mantovani - City Of God

    Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen

    Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
     
  12. Chuck Mayer

    Chuck Mayer Lead Actor

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2001
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    Location:
    Northern Virginia
    Real Name:
    Chuck Mayer
    Placeholder as well. Though I haven't seen nearly enough of the films, I still bet I do OK. Oscars voters can be predictable [​IMG]

    Take care,
    Chuck
     
  13. Kristian

    Kristian Supporting Actor

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    Best Actor - Leading Role

    Projected winner: Sean Penn - Mystic River
    If I picked the winner: Bill Murray - Lost in Translation


    Best Actor - Supporting Role

    Projected winner: Tim Robbins - Mystic River
    If I picked the winner: Ken Watanabe - The Last Samurai


    Best Actress - Leading Role

    Projected winner: Charlize Theron - Monster
    If I picked the winner: Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider


    Best Actress - Supporting Role

    Projected winner: Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain
    If I picked the winner: Holly Hunter - Thirteen


    Best Animated Feature Film

    Projected winner: Finding Nemo
    If I picked the winner: Finding Nemo


    Best Art Direction

    Projected winner: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    If I picked the winner: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King


    Best Cinematography

    Projected winner: Seabiscuit
    If I picked the winner: Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World


    Best Costume Design

    Projected winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Director

    Projected winner: Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    If I picked the winner: Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Documentary - Feature Film

    Projected winner: Capturing the Friedmans


    Best Documentary - Short Subject

    Projected winner: Asylum


    Best Film Editing

    Projected winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Foreign Language Film

    Projected winner: The Barbarian Invasions


    Best Makeup

    Projected winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Music - Original Score

    Projected winner: Howard Shore - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    If I picked the winner: Howard Shore - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Music - Original Song

    Projected winner: "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind
    If I picked the winner: "Into the West" - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Picture

    Projected winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Screenplay - Adapted

    Projected winner: City of God
    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Screenplay - Original

    Projected winner: Lost in Translation
    If I picked the winner: Lost in Translation


    Best Short Film - Animated

    Projected winner: Destino


    Best Short Film - Live Action

    Projected winner: Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)


    Best Sound Editing

    Projected winner: Finding Nemo
    If I picked the winner: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl


    Best Sound Mixing

    Projected winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King


    Best Visual Effects

    Projected winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
    If I picked the winner: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
     
  14. Colin Jacobson

    Colin Jacobson Producer

    Joined:
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    My picks:

    Best Picture: LOTR: ROTK

    Best Director: Peter Jackson

    Best Actor: Bill Murray

    Best Actress: Charlize Theron

    Best Supp. Actor: Tim Robbins

    Best Supp. Actress: Renee Zellweger

    Best Orig. Screenplay: Lost in Translation

    Best Adapted Screenplay: Mystic River

    Best Foreign-Lang. Film: Barbarian Invasions

    Best Animated Feature: Finding Nemo

    Art Direction: Girl With a Pearl Earring

    Cinematography: Cold Mountain

    Costume Design: Last Samurai

    Documentary: Capturing the Friedmans

    Doc. Short: Chernobyl Heart

    Editing: LOTR: ROTK

    Make-up: Pirates

    Score: LOTR: ROTK

    Song: "Kiss at the End of the Rainbow"

    Anim. Short: Nibbles

    Live-Action Short: Squash

    Sound: LOTR: ROTK

    Sound Editing: Pirates

    Visual Effects: LOTR: ROTK

    Some of these are total guesses, but that's part of the fun!
     
  15. Dome Vongvises

    Dome Vongvises Lead Actor

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    * Who I predict to win

    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
    Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl
    Ben Kingsley - House Of Sand And Fog
    Jude Law - Cold Mountain
    * Bill Murray - Lost In Translation
    Sean Penn - Mystic River

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
    Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
    Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams
    Djimon Hounsou - In America
    * Tim Robbins - Mystic River
    Ken Watenabe - The Last Samurai

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
    Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider
    Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
    Samantha Morton - In America
    * Charlize Theron - Monster
    Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
    Shohreh Aghdashloo - House Of Sand And Fog
    Patricia Clarkson - Pieces Of April
    Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
    Holly Hunter - Thirteen
    * Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain
     
  16. Eman_Ramos

    Eman_Ramos Stunt Coordinator

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    Hold please....
     
  17. Patrick Sun

    Patrick Sun Moderator
    Moderator

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    * My prediction
    ** My personal pick

    BEST PICTURE
    * THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
    ** LOST IN TRANSLATION

    DIRECTING
    ** CITY OF GOD
    * THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    ** Bill Murray - LOST IN TRANSLATION
    * Sean Penn - MYSTIC RIVER

    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    * Tim Robbins - MYSTIC RIVER
    ** Ken Watanabe - THE LAST SAMURAI

    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    * Charlize Theron - MONSTER
    ** Charlize Theron - MONSTER

    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    * Renée Zellweger - COLD MOUNTAIN
    ** Renée Zellweger - COLD MOUNTAIN

    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
    * FINDING NEMO
    ** FINDING NEMO

    ART DIRECTION
    **THE LAST SAMURAI
    * THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    CINEMATOGRAPHY
    * CITY OF GOD
    ** CITY OF GOD

    COSTUME DESIGN
    ** THE LAST SAMURAI
    *THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    FILM EDITING
    ** CITY OF GOD
    *THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    MAKEUP
    * THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
    ** THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    MUSIC (SCORE)
    ** HOUSE OF SAND AND FOG
    * THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    MUSIC (SONG)
    * "Into the West" - THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
    ** "A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" - A MIGHTY WIND

    SOUND
    ** THE LAST SAMURAI
    * THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    SOUND EDITING
    * FINDING NEMO
    ** FINDING NEMO

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    * THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING
    ** THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
    ** CITY OF GOD
    * THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING

    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
    * LOST IN TRANSLATION
    ** LOST IN TRANSLATION
     
  18. Stevan Lay

    Stevan Lay Second Unit

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    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
    Prediction: Sean Penn - Mystic River

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
    Prediction: Tim Robbins - Mystic River

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
    Prediction: Charlize Theron - Monster

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
    Prediction: Renee Zellweger - Cold Mountain

    Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
    Prediction: Finding Nemo

    Achievement In Art Direction
    Prediction: Grant Major - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Preferred: Jeannine Oppewall - Seabiscuit

    Achievement In Cinematography
    Prediction: Cesar Charlone - City Of God

    Achievement In Costume Design
    Prediction: Ngila Dickson & Richard Taylor - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Preferred: Judianna Makovsky - Seabiscuit

    Achievement In Directing
    Prediction: Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
    Preferred: Fernando Meirelles - City Of God

    Best Documentary Feature
    Prediction: Capturing The Friedmans & The Fog Of War

    Achievement In Film Editing
    Prediction: Daniel Rezende - City Of God

    Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
    Prediction: The Barbarian Invasions

    Achievement In Makeup
    Prediction: Richard Taylor & Peter King - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Music (Original Score)
    Prediction: Howard Shore - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Music (Original Song)
    Prediction: Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Philippa Boyens, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Motion Picture Of The Year
    Prediction: The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Sound
    Prediction: Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Achievement In Sound Editing
    Prediction: Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Achievement In Visual Effects
    Prediction: Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
    Prediction: Braulio Mantovani - City Of God

    Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
    Prediction: Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
     
  19. John^Lal

    John^Lal Stunt Coordinator

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    Place Holder
     
  20. Shawn_KE

    Shawn_KE Screenwriter

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    Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
    Johnny Depp - Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role
    Benicio Del Toro - 21 Grams

    Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
    Naomi Watts - 21 Grams

    Performance By An Actress In A Supporting Role
    Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River

    Best Animated Feature Film Of The Year
    Finding Nemo

    Achievement In Art Direction
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Cinematography
    John Seale - Cold Mountain

    Achievement In Costume Design
    The Last Samurai

    Achievement In Directing
    Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Documentary Feature
    Capturing The Friedmans

    Best Documentary Short Subject
    Asylum

    Achievement In Film Editing
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Foreign Language Film Of The Year
    The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)

    Achievement In Makeup
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Music (Original Score)
    Danny Elfman - Big Fish

    Achievement In Music (Original Song)
    Annie Lennox, Howard Shore & Philippa Boyens, "Into The West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Motion Picture Of The Year
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Best Animated Short Film
    Harvie Krumpet

    Best Live Action Short Film
    Two Soldiers

    Achievement In Sound
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Achievement In Sound Editing
    Pirates Of The Caribbean: Curse Of The Black Pearl

    Achievement In Visual Effects
    The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced Or Published
    Frances Walsh, Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

    Screenplay Written Directly For The Screen
    Sofia Coppola - Lost In Translation
     

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