More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge

Discussion in 'Blu-ray and UHD' started by Mark Talmadge, May 15, 2008.

  1. Jari K

    Jari K Producer

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    Wow. 5 pages, so I had to come and see what´s going on. I should´ve known - the trolls are back..

    Later.
     
  2. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    We don't allow such talk on this forum so consider this a warning.






    Crawdaddy
     
  3. Rachael B

    Rachael B Producer

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    Back during the format war I used to see some BD's in Wally-Mundo for $18 and some change, no more. I was in the Alcoa store yesterday and there were a half dozen titles for $24.xx and everything else was $30 or more. The BD's are behind glass now to protect them from junkies and other thieves. At the West Knoxville store they have not recieved a glass case for their BD's yet and you have to go to the counter and ask to see the list....that was two weeks ago....

    The only players I've seen so far are Samsung 1000's for $488.

    I was by Tar-geaux after Wally's yesterday and they had 4 titles for $25 and everything else was $30-$35. ....Oh, they they did have T2 for $14.99.

    I have no good local shopping options other than go out to Busted Buy and ask them to price-match Amazon which they will reluctantly do. I'm tired of that. I might as well stay home and order from Amazonia.
     
  4. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    I would be quite happy with a 40% market penetration, and I would consider that a huge success for blu-ray. Particularly considering that HDTVs are only in about 40% of American homes. That would mean that nearly 100% of HDTV owners bought into the format.

    Doug
     
  5. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    The only difference is that your region 1 disc won't play in your region 2 player because one is NTSC and the other is PAL. They aren't compatible even beyond the region coding. Yes they both use a laser to read a disc that is encoded with an MPEG 2 video file, but that video file is not universally usable world wide.

    Doug
     
  6. ManW_TheUncool

    ManW_TheUncool Producer

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    I think Crawdaddy meant 40-45% penetration in the long run (like after another 5-7 years, if not more), not near term. Presumably, by then, HDTV itself -- though not necessarily 1080i/p HD -- would have >=90% penetration.

    Anyway, I think that's a reasonable prediction/expectation, if the industry doesn't mess up. And I'd be happy w/ that myself.

    _Man_
     
  7. David Wilkins

    David Wilkins Supporting Actor

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    I've been reading through these five pages with interest. It's good that we have these discussions, and anything I might say shouldn't be taken as criticism of the thread. Much of what's being said here, harkens back to the very beginning of hi-def software. We're simply not arguing red vs. blue anymore.

    Perhaps I'm very dim, but I still don't understand all the hand-wringing. All the basic factors are well known and understood. Any format of hi-def software, nearly by definition, isn't going to have the massive appeal that SD DVD had. Most likely, SD came along at a particular time in the PC and home video market, that might never be duplicated. I've said it many times before: BD doesn't have to have that same massive level of acceptance in order to be a successful format...and it never will.

    Why is everybody foaming at the mouth, for tidal waves of mom and pop purchases? Why can't anybody relate the here and now, to a similar stage of past formats? And that includes the perhaps once in a lifetime success story of SD DVD. I don't see a massive, do or die crisis. The software people, even though times are slow, don't seem to be hurling themselves off roofs, or doing much price cutting. The CE people aren't in a panic either. Which helps raise the question, of why there's such high anxiety and hand-wringing in these forums. Seems to me, that if things were that dire we would see aggressive price cutting all the way around, both software and hardware. I simply don't think they're all that displeased. And if they aren't, we're not in danger of certain format death.

    As I've said before, what's with the frenetic cries: $15 software, NOW! Blu-ray in every mom and pop home, NOW!

    Software that sells for $35 never enters my mind, because I've almost never come close to paying that much, and I have a respectable library. If the only place you can shop, sells BD for that price...well, what can I say? If the software people were that concerned about scaring away mom and pop impulse purchases, the prices WOULD be lower. Again, it's the failed perspective that I don't understand. This is not a unique or troubling cycle. It's the way things work.

    The same sense of doom has been hanging like a shroud in these forums, since day one. Is it the state of the world? Is it politics? Is it the war? Is this the only place people like us can go, loose our anxieties and actually get a response?

    I'm just a knuckle-head thinking out loud.
     
  8. Stephen_J_H

    Stephen_J_H All Things Film Junkie
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    David, I think you're on to something.
     
  9. ManW_TheUncool

    ManW_TheUncool Producer

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    David,

    I think at least some of us tend to agree w/ you. [​IMG]

    Cheers!

    _Man_
     
  10. RickER

    RickER Producer

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    Last week, or so, i ordered a damn lot of Blu-ray discs for under $15 from Warner Home Video. Most were pre-orders. But, of course i had to be here on the HTF to even know of the deal. I know its not the same as the average Joe on the street who might of bought I am Legend on Blu-ray at BB for $35. Most, or many of us bought it in the $18 price point from Amazon or Warner. Helps to know where to shop.
    So we can find some good deals, i guess it just needs to be easier for Joe.
     
  11. Robert Crawford

    Robert Crawford Moderator
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    I think 40% market penetration is possible in five years which would be seven years into this format. By next January, we will have a good indication if that's possible or not.





    Crawdaddy
     
  12. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    I'm not so concerned about having a blu-ray player in every home in America or like DVDs 2 or 3 players in every home. However I am concerned that if we don't, have as is suggested, around 40% market penetration, we will end up with only the most popular films being released on blu-ray.

    There seems to be a consensus that films like Casablanca and The Adventures of Robin Hood haven't been released on blu-ray yet because they didn't do well on HD DVD. Now these are two of the most popular films from the golden age of Hollywood. If they don't warrant a release, how would a film like Key Largo, 12 Angry Men or Out of the Past get a release.

    Don't get me wrong I really don't hope that blu-ray will fail, quite the contrary. I really like collecting films on disc. And I want to be able to collect some of my favorite films in HD. Most of my favorite films are not action movies from the last 15 years.

    Doug
     
  13. Rachael B

    Rachael B Producer

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    In 5 years even if market share lags and stays below 20%, I think there will be a goodly selection. I think Blu-ray will do very well in Japan and the U.S. market could feed off that nicely. That's sort'a how LD worked.
     
  14. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    I don't relish the idea of having to import discs from Japan.

    Doug
     
  15. Rachael B

    Rachael B Producer

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    That's not it at all Douglas. Our domestic LD's from Pioneer were not imports. They were made for Estados Unidos. That's how we feed off the Japanese market. It wasn't any trouble to create U.S. editions along with the Japanes versions. Look at the subtitle selection on some of these Sony BD's. It's over 10 choices on some. Sony may just create one version for many films in the future, regardless of where they're actually pressed....?

    It's highly doubtful you'll have to import Japanese market BD's in this, hopefully, worst case scenario. When the public eventually gets spoil't by HD football and TV series in HD, they'll drift to the Blu side, "if the price is right"....they might be lucky winners.
     
  16. Jari K

    Jari K Producer

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    Most (if not almost all by now) TV-sets and DVD/HD*-players at least in Europe are *PAL/NTSC* (both natively). So we don´t really have any issues with NTSC here. Even the ultra-cheap DVD-players are NTSC, let alone the "trusted brands". Same with TV-sets, projectors, receivers (my latest Yamaha v1800 for example), etc.

    That´s why it´s so easy for the Europeans to import everything from e.g. America etc.

    You can also find "region free"-fix to most players out there (meaning at least in Europe). Not sure about the Blu-ray-players, though (I guess those are only coming etc).

    The "lack of PAL" is only a problem in America and probably in other "NTSC only"-areas (I´m not sure about e.g. Japan, Asia, etc).

    PAL is of course our only *broadcast television system* in Europe (well, some countries might have some selected HD-channels), but with the A/V equipments we have both PAL/NTSC included.



    (*=Meaning the SD DVD-side of the player)
     
  17. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    The only problem with that is the the producing studio isn't always the distributer in every country. They may or may not control what goes onto a particular disc in different countries. Terminator 2 is a good example of a disc that has at least 3 different versions on 2 different HD formats all with different features. I was seriously thinking about importing Capricorn One till I found out it had forced subtitles in Italian or something.

    I hope that people will eventually become interested in movies in HD and hopefully before its to late for blu-ray.

    Doug
     
  18. Adam Gregorich

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    They actually sold suprisingly well, outselling a lot of more contemporary titles.
     
  19. Douglas Monce

    Douglas Monce Producer

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    While that maybe the norm in Europe its not in the U.S. I don't know of any SD televisions sold here that can display both NTSC and Pal. Probably the reason that it is more prevalent in Europe is that Pal has more scan lines and its easier to display an NTSC signal on it. I believe down converting Pal to NTSC is somewhat more complicated, both because of the scan lines and the overlaid chroma information in the NTSC system.

    Of course any HDTV should be able to display either system.

    Doug
     
  20. Danny_N

    Danny_N Second Unit

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