More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge (1 Viewer)

[Douglas Monce]

I don't hope that blu-ray fails, but I think it will if the prices remain where they are. At this point I don't think Mom and Dad with their 2.3 children are going to buy into blu-ray unless the prices are around or below $100 for a player. Most people I talk to can see the difference, they just don't think of it as a big enough deal to spend that much money on. If the players were priced closer to the prices of DVD players I think they would consider upgrading, but not before.

I was saying this about HD DVD as well, somewhere between $100 and $150 is the magic number. Until and unless it gets there, blu-ray is the next SA-CD.

It never really mattered to me which format won the war, but many of us were saying, even before HD DVD was killed, that the real war was with DVD and unless the powers that be behind blu-ray do something fast, their chance will pass them by.

Also I don't hope that blu-ray remains a niche. Being a niche format means that most of my favorite films will never make it to blu-ray. A format that can't support a film like Casablanca is a failure indeed.

Doug

 

[Mark Talmadge]

Douglas has actually hit the point. While the high def enthusiasts will continue buying into the format the hard sell will be to the average family who is already on a budget. The report I posted a link to specifies this point.

When you have a family, who is on a budget, looking to squeeze the most out of their budget, even for entertainment fans, especially when faced with budget constraints. I think that until the prices on blu ray players come down to under $200 then Sony and the companies selling them are going to have a difficult time trying to get the format into more homes.

This needs to happen sooner rather than later if Sony really expects more adoption of their format.

 

[Robert Crawford]

Nobody is disagreeing with pricing nor family budget issues which has been stated by most in this thread. However, the adoption of this format is beyond just the control of Sony.





Crawdaddy

 

[Douglas Monce]

While it's very true that Sony isn't all powerful when it comes to the format, we are talking about the future of blu-ray here. If Sony and some of the other companies involved in the format don't do something pretty quickly, then they might as well not bother, because blu-ray will have lost the format war also.

Doug

 

[TravisR]

I still buy more DVDs than Blu Rays so I wouldn't consider DVD ruined but I do think that SOME parts of the laserdisc days were good (like a format that catered to enthusiasts). Of course, they cost a heckuva lot more money and no one wants to go back to that. While I've said that I don't care if Blu Ray catches on or not, I will be just as happy if Blu Ray achieves or exceeds the level of success that DVD has because I think that if Blu Ray is eventually a massive success or if it is a niche (that is larger than LD but still a niche) both outcomes have positive aspects.

 

[Douglas Monce]

Well I'm the guy who buys everything twice, once on DVD and once in HD, which ever format that happens to be, so I'm not one who is worried about buying movies more than once.

Doug

 

[TravisR]

I'm not saying that everyone who thinks that Blu Ray isn't going to make it or that anyone who doesn't have a rosy view of Blu Ray's future falls into that category but it's obvious that there's some who do. I have friends in the 'real' world who definitely have the "High defitinion is doomed" mantra and it's because they don't want to rebuy everything.

 

[Douglas Monce]

I think I would have a much more positive out look of blu-ray if I saw that there were some really exciting films coming. While there are a few interesting titles announced in the next few months, there is nothing that is really getting me excited. The last film that got me excited was Blade Runner, and there is just nothing of that caliber on the way.

I take that back, The Third Man from The Criterion Collection has me a little excited.

Doug

 

[Robert Crawford]

What do you mean something pretty quickly? Also, Sony like many other companies are being hurt by the current economic conditions so their hands are tied to a point for any immediate solution.

 

[Danny_N]

How about the Dirty Harry Collection, Patton, The Longest Day, The Sand Pebbles, A Bridge Too Far, Battle Of Britain, Black Narcissus, Great Expectations, Boys From Brazil, The Professionals, One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest, How The West Was Won, Pale Rider, The Fog, Escape From New York, Cool Hand Luke, Contempt, Man Who Fell To Earth, Walkabout, Wages Of Fear and The Third Man?

I was as pessimistic as you the first few months of the year but since then there has been plenty announced that gets me excited. Especially with Criterion coming on board and Fox/MGM dipping into their classic catalogue things are looking up.

 

[troy evans]

I can understand that there are some on here that truely are feeling the economic pinch. However, I also feel that for some it is nothing more than an excuse to spread doom and gloom over the fact that their pissed because Blu-ray won. Now, it's SD DVD vs. Blu-ray, the new format wars. This is nonsense and pure sour grapes. The masses will get into Blu-ray. The PS3 has helped that along and player prices will more than likely be at $300 or below by Christmas, if not lower. We're looking at all the new televisions hitting the market being hi-def as proof that the masses must be interrested in it. In 2009 all broadcasting goes digital. It doesn't seem like too big of a leap to think that Blu-ray will replace sd-dvd as the disc based format. All signs point to a bright future for Blu-ray.

 

[Douglas Monce]

I mean that the prices have to come down and come down soon. They need to have a 2.0 stand alone player under $200 by Christmas.

Doug

 

[Douglas Monce]

The Dirty Harry Collection is a no sale for me because I only want the first movie. I'll probably buy Patton, Battle of Britain, How the West Was Won and The Third Man.

I've seen no announcement about Escape From New York. If it is in deed coming I'll buy it.

What would get me excited about blu-ray would be some actual classics such as Casablanca, The Adventures of Robin Hood and Forbidden Planet to name just a few that haven't yet made the transition from HD DVD.

Beyond those, some Hitchcock films would get me VERY excited. Some classic film noir such as The Big Sleep, Out of the Past, Double Indemnity and Laura.

Some of Fox's 50s and 60 CinemaScope pictures. I'd love to see Desk Set, Fantastic Voyage, The Robe and 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea from Disney.

Some of the 70mm epics would be nice. I hear that Lawrence of Arabia is on the way but that won't be for at least another year.

These are some films that would get me "jumping up and down gotta have it on day one" excited. I realize that Sony has no control over the titles listed here and that they have started to release a few classics from their own library, however if the studios are in deed looking for a new revenue stream, then they better start priming the pump.

My fear is that they have begun to see physical media as yesterday's news. Honestly as a provider of content, I see downloads as having no downside at all. With downloads I don't have to manufacture anything, I don't have to package anything, and I don't have to ship anything. The only costs are a server somewhere to store the download copy, and advertising.

Doug

 

[Douglas Monce]

I have to agree that all the talk about the economy is much ado about nothing. It is really being pushed by a media that describes everything as a crisis. Frankly its hog wash.

If you look at the actual numbers, with the exception of fuel prices, nothing else is at all time highs when adjusted for inflation. Even the price of gas was higher in 1982 when adjusted. The American public has been quite honestly spoiled with the cheapest consumer prices ever in the history of this country. In Europe they have been paying $5 a liter, not gallon, liter for gas for more than 5 years.

Unemployment numbers just went DOWN. Any economy that has 5% unemployment is doing just fine thank you very much.

I'm actually starting to have serious doubts about mass adoption and it has nothing at all to do with HD DVD losing the war. The more I talk to people the more they just don't seem to care about HD. They are buying 47 inch TVs just because they are big, not because they want HD. Again I think if it doesn't cost much more if anything to upgrade they will do it, other wise it's just not important to most people.

Doug

 

[AlexCosmo]

What's this about Escape from New York?
I think Blu Ray can survive as a laserdisc-type specialty item, beyond that, I just dunno.

 

[Danny_N]

Play UK is listing Escape From New York (and Carpenter's The Fog) for August 11. Don't know if it will be region free but I can tell you that when I get it.

If I'm not mistaken the first Dirty Harry movie is released individually in the US as well. If not, you can always import the European release as all Dirty Harry movies are released seperate here.

Yeah, some of the 70mm epics would be like a dream come true. Imagine Cleopatra, The Alamo or It's A Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World in 1080p.

I doubt that the studios see physical media as yesterday's news. I can see downloads replacing the rental market to a large degree but not the retail market.

Anyway, I try to enjoy what I can get now and with the recent announcements of movies I'm interested in, I'm quite happy. In fact, for a classic movies fan, I'd say the situation is better than in the early days of DVD (Warner for instance did not release many classics in the first few years of DVD, at least I can still remember the complaints about them).

 

[Joe Karlosi]

Yes - and so, if the HT entusiasts aren't all ga-ga over Blu-Ray, how can we ever expect the general public to go for it?

 

[Robert Crawford]

Well so much for that excuse, at least according to you.





Crawdaddy

 

[Robert Crawford]

Why by Christmas? I understand that hardware prices should be lowered by why under $200 by this Christmas?

 

[Douglas Monce]

Because I think they need to have far more stand alone players in homes going into next year. Anything over $200 and Mom and Dad and their 2.5 children aren't even going to consider buying blu-ray. More likely it needs to be under $100.

2009 will be the 4th year that blu-ray is on the market and there aren't even 2 million stand alone players in homes.

This summer Sony is supposed to start a movie download service through their Playstation network. Microsoft already offers a download service, as does Netflix and Itunes. I don't know about your cable provider, but mine is advertising the hell out of movies on demand, many of them in HD.

My feeling is that if there aren't significantly more players in homes going into next year, blu-ray may miss it's chance to be anything more than a footnote in consumer electronics history.

Doug