More Research Asserts that Blu Ray Adoption Isn't Apt to Surge (1 Viewer)

[Zack Gibbs]

NPD numbers only account for the US. Globally the PS3 has outsold the 360 every month since mid-last year. Xbox makes more than half it's total sales in America, where playstation I think is something like 25%.

 

[Brandon Conway]

Not a lot of titles? Have you seen the release schedule for the next two months?

 

[Rachael B]

I'm just quessing but I'd suppose that the fuel cost to transport finished discs is a way bigger factor than the amount of oil in the discs.

I think Blu-ray is doomed to minority format status for the next several years if not permanently. I think that the creators of the format blundered by designing a format that they want, not what the average consumer would. I think HD-DVD got one thing right, DVD compatibility. I think Blu could, with cheaper players also in the equation, make gains faster if they had a DVD compatiable program on many of the discs if not all.

For the time being I don't have to worry about friends asking to borrow my Blu-rays. The only person I know with a BD player is my mom. I got it for her so she could borrow my discs. She and my late dad have always followed me to new formats.....LD and later DVD. Well, my brother got a Blu player too.....but outside of my family....nada.

Even if the economy wasn't recessing, IMO, Blu at today's prices would stille be struggling. Holly Wood's dream of huge windfall profits off HD will proably go unrealized....???

 

[ChristopherDAC]

Actually, it's better than that. The relevant number is 9% of 2500, or 225, out of 35% of 2500, or 875, which makes 26%. That's right, among HDTV owners (the only group of people who can reasonably be expected to buy into Blu-Ray), fully a quarter have bought into BD already (including PS3, but some of those are primarily movie players, according to anecdotal evidence on this forum), and another quarter are expecting to in the coming year. If these numbers are right, half of the people who own an HDTV set today are likely to own a Blu-Ray player by June of 2009.

 

[Jeff Ulmer]

I agree with others that price is the biggest barrier to entry now, both on players and media. A recession isn't going to entice people to blow money on upgrading HT equipment if they already have something that does a reasonable job, or can't use the upgrade anyway (no HDTV). When players are under $100 and discs are under $20 (with many under $10) you'll see far more interest.

For me, there still aren't enough titles available that I would be interested in upgrading for me to consider a purchase, and I still don't know whether I can use a BR player with my component only HDTV (albeit at 1080i max). If going BR means buying another set, it will be years before I jump on the bandwagon.

 

[Rachael B]

Jeff, BD will look just hunky dory via component video to your 1080i set. Forget that as a problem!!!!

 

[Maxpower1987]

In 2010, 2011, 2012. What happens to all of these people who have component and the studios use ITC?

Trust me, they are chomping at the bit to get ITC in on the action, a couple are even thinking of renegging on the agreement not to use it until 2012.

 

[TravisR]

Well, I still don't care. Of course, the more successful it is, the more titles will come out but like I said, I'm happy with the number of titles I'm getting right now. And I have enough patience to wait for the big catalog titles to trickle out over time.

 

[Scott-S]

LOL, reading the numbers quoted in the first post makes me laugh.

It is almost like Al Gore is making the inferences from the data.

The data shows that 20% of those who have a HDTV have a Blu-Ray player. That is a great adoption rate this early in the game. That is actually pretty great news for BR adoption!!!

 

[John Dirk]

I think the majority of consumers would still have difficulty picking out the BD content in blind tests, all other things being equal. Not that the difference isn't significant, but most people watch a film for the story, action etc, and have little interest in the quality of the actual presentation. It's similar to the anamorphic widescreen vs pan & scan situation. Studios could not get away with charging more for the [obviously superior] widescreen version because the average consumer could care less.

Until a Blu-Ray disc costs the same as its SD cousin, and the players reach comparable prices to a decent SD player, I think BD will remain a nich'e product.

John

 

[Rachael B]

That's someday.....however, my biggest set is stille 1080i and has HDMI inputs but neither Sony or Panasonic Blu-ray players work correctly with it. If I'm stille using that TV and they try to invoke ITC, I'll file a complaint with the F.C.C. and anybody else I can. The analog sunset is rather mirthful given how disjointed HDMI is! By 2012 Blu may be so hacked and cracked that the annie-log sunset might not be that important to it's perpetrators....?

 

[ManW_TheUncool]

I think many of us would be fine w/ Blu-ray staying somewhat niche though -- not LD-like niche of course, but some sort of happy median between that and the current state of SD DVD. I certainly don't mind paying a little more for Blu-ray than for SD DVD -- and really, lots of SD DVD pricing (beyond that of recent releases) has gone pretty nutty of late, and you can't really expect Blu-ray to follow that trend anytime soon, if ever.

_Man_

 

[Mark Talmadge]

Ronald, I think you said it best. Blu Ray manufacturers of the hardware and software have become complacent since HD-DVD is no longer a factor and they're unlikely to drop prices anytime soon. Plus, the studios who release their own titles aren't likely to drop retail prices on their titles either.

I wouldn't mind jumping into the format but the hardware and software are both too expensive to be worth making the switch. With TV on DVD sets fetching between $65-$100 at discount stores such as Best Buy and Circuit City, even those discounted prices are prohibitively high. I'm just satisfied with the standard DVD player and software that I currently own.

With no HD-DVD format to compete against, it's highly doubtful that prices for blu ray will drop. If they do, it won't be by much to convince consumers to buy into it.

Market research also doesn't bode well for the short term for this format. Check out this link: I4U News - Blu-ray uphill Battle ahead this Holiday Shopping Season

 

[Adam Gregorich]

It would be interesting to see, but after watching Blu-ray/HD DVD, I have a hard time going back to my over-compressed Comcast HD, let alone DVD!

 

[Norman Matthews]

That's assuming no overlap between the 4% and the 5%, which is a pretty big assumption. It could be as low as 14% of HDTV owners owning a player (which is certainly absurd, that the 4% is all captured in the 5%, but I think it's wishful thinking to assume no one surveyed falls into both the 4% and 5%).

 

[Robert Crawford]

I can't agree. Most people will see and hear a night and day difference on their HT equipment that has been properly setup.

 

[Goko]

Interesting you should say that because I have the exact opposite opinion.

Now I have Dish Network and I'm pleased as punch with the quality of the HD channels that I subscribe to. In fact, just recently, I decided to spend money I was saving for a Blu-ray player and decided to buy an external 750GB HDD and upgrade to some premium HD channels for the movie content. In just 3 weeks I've stored 50 HD movies and I only have about 200 GBs left! I haven't had this much fun since my heavy S-DVD buying days.

 

[Mark Talmadge]

The whole problem is rising out of the fact that your average consumer doesn't see the blu ray format as the new alternative to home video. When you look at everything needed in order to enjoy the HD format, an HD LCD television set, a blur ray player, along with the software which often costs as much as 50% to 100% over the cost of standard DVD, most don't see the benefits.

Sony seems to be having a hard time selling the blu ray format to the average consumer and has been relying too much on the support from the early adopters. Consumers aren't fooled by the free offers for 10 blu ray movies, especially when you have to send through the mail in order to get the free movies and the movie selection is severely limited by what the manufacturer will offer with the pruchase of their model.

Add to the growing problem that the industry keeps pressing out newer blu ray models every 3-4 months with better features, that also doesn't help the home video market. Not considering the fact that the consumer can purchase an upconvertable DVD player, that'll convert standard definition DVD's to 1080p, consumers are going to be satisfied with the DVD Upconvertable player until prices on blu ray players come down.

The biggest problem will be from the hardware makers and hoping that they can keep the prices for blu ray players under the $250 price range. With the way the economy is right now, consumers just have other things on their mind without having to think about paying $300 and $400 for a blu ray player when they need to use that money to fill up their gas tanks.

 

[Edwin-S]

I agree.

I still see the major problem as being pricing. Prices are too high....especially for software. I check out the stands at my local shop regularly. There are several titles that I would buy if they were at a lower price point; however, every time I see a 32+ dollar price tag I just put it back on the shelf. I like films, but I have come to realize that there are very few films that I'm willing to spend more than 26 bucks on. There are exceptions but so far most of the releases on the shelf today are "like to have" not "must have".

Master and Commander is a perfect example. I would badly like to upgrade my DVD copy, but 32 bucks (not including 11% in sales tax) for a bare bones copy.......well, it just becomes a "forget it" moment.

 

[Robert Crawford]

IMO, due to various circumstances including the industry doing a terrible job all around, the average consumer is just starting to realize what Blu-ray is and its benefits. Once the education/awareness process is complete and hardware/software become more affordable during these tough times, I expect a steady growth for Blu-ray. However, I always thought it will never reach the market penetration of SD DVD and have stated so numerous times on this forum. Unlike SD DVD, too many consumers will have to buy more than a new BR player to fully realize the benefits Blu-ray offers them which is why it will never reach SD DVD penetration. With that being said, I see it being more than a LD niche market, but it's market penetration will not reach the level of 90% that video tape and SD DVD reached in the last 20 years. Perhaps, 40-50% penetration is possible, but at this time, I'm only guessing with such a projection. I do expect some cheaper players later this year with the software providers responding in kind with their product.

Somehow, the industry has to find a way to lower production costs and then lower their sale prices accordingly without them taking a financial bath with the devalued dollar. These are tough times which is why the industry has been slower to react to a single HDM market with lower pricing, but some way, they have to overcome that roadblock in order to increase their profit margins while growing the Blu-ray market.